Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[cubby]

That isn't necessarily true though. Many people who would support an outsider candidate in the general election are simply barred from participating in the primary process in the first place, as closed primaries are very common. This is true on both sides.

But the people who are allowed to participate in the Primary, there will be an increase in those people's turnouts. I'm not saying any one particular group in either Primary or General, I'm just saying that if there is a claim that the candidate will increase turnout in the General, then we will see that increase as well in the Primary - even if it's different groups of people.

Bernie did not do that in the Primary.

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I don't think this is necessarily true. Turnout for primaries is usually about half that of the general to begin with. Particularly independents, which may lean to one side or another but don't consider themselves part of a party and are less likely to participate in the primary (or can't). And then there's the people that don't tune into to politics until close to the election, so without some sort of numbers, I don't know if I can take this assumption outright.

I'm just talking percentages, of a group that would already have shown up for the Primary. If a candidate is going to significantly increase voter turnout, that increase will be reflected in the Primary.

[Sunseeker]

I’ll take that as no... equally vindictive... lol

That's not vindictiveness genius.

I'm not saying people who don't support the cause need to suffer.

I'm saying they shouldn't be catered to.

This was my central argument a thousand fucking pages ago and y'all still don't seem to get it. Even as your boy Biden is poised to repeat all the mistakes of the previous Democratic administrations. Caring about people who don't care about you while ignoring people who do is a good way to find yourself in a real bad spot real quick.

If anyone says "You Democrats aren't good enough for me, I'd rather vote for the guy actively burning my house down." there is no reason to cater to what they want, ever. They are persona-non-grata in the electoral process until they, not we, until THEY pull their head out of their own asshole. We can't be responsible for pulling everyone out of the hole they've dug for themselves.

If you think for even a second that electing a rational human being to the Oval Office means Republicans are going to stop shitting the bed, you're just plum crazy.

[cubby]

Gah. You are saying they are the same and I have shown you how they are different.

I am NOT SAYING THEY ARE THE SAME. I just fucking told you they are different. Please refer to it again:

I agree that the Primary process is different from the General process.

You are flat out saying if Candidate X can't increase turnout in the primary then they cannot increase turnout in the general. How is that not saying the they are same?

Because the enthusiasm is the issue, not the similarities in any process or groups of voters. If you claim a candidate will significantly increase voter turnout, then we would see that in the Primary. And we didn't.

Basic logic, something you continue to deny, because you "feel" that Bernie would turn out the vote in the General, when all data shows the exact opposite.

[silveth]

That's not vindictiveness genius.

I'm not saying people who don't support the cause need to suffer.

I'm saying they shouldn't be catered to.

This was my central argument a thousand fucking pages ago and y'all still don't seem to get it. Even as your boy Biden is poised to repeat all the mistakes of the previous Democratic administrations. Caring about people who don't care about you while ignoring people who do is a good way to find yourself in a real bad spot real quick.

If anyone says "You Democrats aren't good enough for me, I'd rather vote for the guy actively burning my house down." there is no reason to cater to what they want, ever. They are persona-non-grata in the electoral process until they, not we, until THEY pull their head out of their own asshole. We can't be responsible for pulling everyone out of the hole they've dug for themselves.

If you think for even a second that electing a rational human being to the Oval Office means Republicans are going to stop shitting the bed, you're just plum crazy.

Funny you use burning down the house when it seems that the left are doing all the burning right now.

Can someone actually explain what Trump has "burned down"? I am curious. He is a self grandstanding, slimy NY business man. A really ahole of a person, but has he actually burned down? I mean really. Before the pandemic, the economy was humming and jobs were humming along. He has made strides toward peace in the middle east. No new wars, in fact he is trying to bring troops home.

What exactly has he done that is so bad to be called "burning down the house"?

[PACOX]

I just want to add to this weird ass take that one has to win their primary to make change, a wholly misinformed take.

Stacy Abrams lost lost her election has more for election outreach and voter participation than I anyone thinks election results are the stopgap could imagine. The value of value of Fair Fight is incredible when it comes to voter participation and getting the right people on the ballot, and yet it was founded by someone who lost their election.

Its very shortsighted or disingenuous to actually argue Bernie has not brought more attention to the political process for people otherwise out of the loop.

If you wonder why progressives are frustrated with mainline liberals it's because of outlandish takes like "Bernie did not bring people into the fold". Hell even Sir Combover brought new people into the political process, both for and against him.

[Masark]

Before the pandemic

"Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

[Gaidax]

OK, people who think Sanders would win vs Trump are high.

Sanders is two decades early with his policies and he's also perceived as uncompromising hardliner at that with less than savory supporters. Even if by some miracle he'd win nomination, he'd just be destroyed in generals by independents and centrists.

Heck, if not Trump's horrendous COVID-19 failure, he'd likely sink Biden too. Trump really fucked it up bad in 2020, all the noise before that is nowhere near the monumental failure of response to coronavirus.

[PACOX]

OK, people who think Sanders would win vs Trump are high.

Sanders is two decades early with his policies and he's also perceived as uncompromising hardliner at that with less than savory supporters. Even if by some miracle he'd win nomination, he'd just be destroyed in generals by independents and centrists.

Heck, if not Trump's horrendous COVID-19 failure, he'd likely sink Biden too. Trump really fucked it up bad in 2020, all the noise before that is nowhere near the monumental failure of response to coronavirus.

Bernie never had a chance because a sizable portion of liberals are full of shit. The idea of being a left-wing party adopting left-wing politics is more attractive to them than being an actual left-wing party. They need their Joker or they can't function, that's the GOP. The same party they'll make concessions with on 'red line' issues if things get too sticky for them.

[Gaidax]

Bernie never had a chance because a sizable portion of liberals are full of shit. The idea of being a left-wing party adopting left-wing politics is more attractive to them than being an actual left-wing party. They need their Joker or they can't function, that's the GOP. The same party they'll make concessions with on 'red line' issues if things get too sticky for them.

More like hardliners like Bernie need to realize that they can't change everything to their liking right away and it's a process.

It's fine to have a long term plan, as opposed to change everything 180 degrees right now and whoever is not with us is against us - people just don't buy that shit and they are right about it.

There won't be any revolution there, it can be a transition, but only if flexibility is shown. It does not have to be this silly black and white - "if you're not backing our shit, then you're a con" radicalism.

[PACOX]

More like hardliners like Bernie need to realize that they can't change everything to their liking right away and it's a process.

It's fine to have a long term plan, as opposed to change everything 180 degrees right now and whoever is not with us is against us - people just don't buy that shit and they are right about it.

There won't be any revolution there, it can be a transition, but only if flexibility is shown. It does not have to be this silly black and white - "if you're not backing our shit, then you're a con" radicalism.

I don't think Bernie expected an immediate 180. In fact that would be uncharacteristic of his political career. His methods have always been start a dialogue, push the idea further, then try to implement it. One criticism against Bernie is that he was too nice to his contemporaries for the ideas he was trying to push. Another, which I believe is valid, is that his ideas created too much work for the average person to see them through. In the spirit of what I said earlier, people like ideas more than seeing them through. Bernie's platforms asks a lot from people who are content/used to politians doing half assed jobs while staying out of sight and mind. Americans are lazier and willing to settle than they would like to admit.

Do people really think he was speaking short term goals? The man was talking sweeping reform of some institutions, nothing short term about that.

But yeah there's not many politicians who stayed close to their convictions while in office - Bernie is one of the rare ones. I feel like a lot of people really think he just came out of no where though.

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That’s illogical... the majority of independents are moderate... that’s basic logic. If your argument is that the left extreme has splintered off from democrats, to the point they don’t vote democrats in the general election... then expect democrats to keep pushing for more reliable voters. Not that it matters... the left not voting for democrats, is the reason why Trump’s initial reaction to Bernie dropping out, was to tell leftists that democrats don’t represent them... while telling his supporters, far leftists are the evil controlling moderate democrats.

I did not even see this post earlier. How do you come to think conclusion that most independents are moderates because that's a huge reach

A independent can be anywhere on the spectrum with many being left or right because they are dissatisfied with the centrists of either major party. There's quite a few left Or right NPAs on this site. .

[Eviscero]

I'm using the argument of "His base was not eligible to vote in most Democratic primaries, because they are not registered as Democrats, and he didn't bring in the establishment primary voters he needed to". It has nothing to do with predicting the future, it's about apples and oranges.

Kay. So at best he wasn't inspiring enough to get his supporters to take the necessary steps to support him beyond making tiny donations.

Maybe Bernie could have taken a few minutes away from repeating the exact same message every time he took to the stage to instruct folks on how to switch affiliations to vote for him.

He lost. Accept it and vote Biden if you ever want to be able to vote again.

[SirBeef]

There's several posts talking about how people don't engage in primaries. And still you can't deny how many people he got to engage and how he even got the DNC to move left.

Not sure how interested I am in a conversation with someone who can't realize the impact Bernie had. You don't have to like the man or his policies, it's a basic understanding of the way politics work.

I never said he didn't have an impact. That is clear goalpost moving. He couldn't get people out to vote. I don't give 2 shits about anyone who can't be bothered to vote in a primary then bitch about their candidate not being there at the end.

[PACOX]

Reading back, I swear it's liberals who are the most worried about Biden as a candidate. The 2nd in a row the party has put up a candidate that care nothing about and are simply voting for because it's name is not Trump. Maybe that's why some people are frustrated when you say you'll vote for Biden but not enthusiastically because that's the same problem Clinton faced.

Really what else do liberals want from progressives? Those who are going to vote are going to for Biden, the rest are people you say don't vote anyway. Approaching 30 days. Maybe ya should focus more on making sure people across party lines are board then preparing to throw the left under the bus again.

[Bodakane]

You literally quoted me saying exactly that. Reactionary, read the second sentence. “NOW” wtf?



Am I supposed to respond to covid doesn’t mater or that it does? WTF?



That choice of words though... *cat sound*



Still do... because of these reactions. Every post confirms exactly what I’m saying.



Which part of, I know, did you not understand? Wtf?



Because that answer means nothing. It’s also not true... but, if it were, the answer you are afraid to say is 0. If it was a stupid point, you’d just say 0. You expect me to see you ever admit you are wrong? Please...



Yeah, it’s cool... I get to see Russian news in Russian... you should be jealous.

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He is literally arguing that there is no indication that Bernie would win... because he dug him self a hole, where any indication is empirical.

Edit: Watch this...

@Bodakane is there any indication that Bernie would beat Trump?

You have ceased making literally any sense at all. Like seriously, none of your responses actually address a single point I’ve made and you keep pretending I’m making completely different arguments. Come back to the planet and we can continue but until then....

[Felya]

I did not even see this post earlier. How do you come to think conclusion that most independents are moderates because that's a huge reach

Math... several pages of it... random number sets, bidirectional on middle... 3 pages... go read...

Edit: I’ll make it easy... follow this post for an extensive explanation, followed by 3 relatively short explanations that try to explain in different ways. I don’t mind explaining and this post has 4 ways to do so, see if one works:

Edit 3:

============

A moderate can be anywhere on the spectrum with many being left or right because they are dissatisfied with the centrists of either major party. There's quite a few left Or right NPAs on this site. .

Yes, and people who don’t read are, what?

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You have ceased making literally any sense at all. Like seriously, none of your responses actually address a single point I’ve made and you keep pretending I’m making completely different arguments. Come back to the planet and we can continue but until then....

What indicator do you have that Bernie could win the election? Name one...

Edit: The reason Trump won and will win, is this... the education in this country is shit and filled with reactionaries.

[Bodakane]

I am NOT SAYING THEY ARE THE SAME. I just fucking told you they are different. Please refer to it again:





Because the enthusiasm is the issue, not the similarities in any process or groups of voters. If you claim a candidate will significantly increase voter turnout, then we would see that in the Primary. And we didn't.

Basic logic, something you continue to deny, because you "feel" that Bernie would turn out the vote in the General, when all data shows the exact opposite.

Saying they are different means little when basing your entire argument on the fact that the results of one will match the other.

You have gotten it in your head that getting voters to turn out to vote once in the general is the same as getting people registering with a specific party, following the primaries, and going out to vote in the primaries during a pandemic.

[Felya]

That's not vindictiveness genius.

Yeah, it is... you expect me to read this and not think it’s vindictive? lol

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Saying they are different means little when basing your entire argument on the fact that the results of one will match the other.

You have gotten it in your head that getting voters to turn out to vote once in the general is the same as getting people registering with a specific party, following the primaries, and going out to vote in the primaries during a pandemic.

What is your indicator that Bernie would have beaten Trump?... in other words... what makes you think he would have won?

I think there's a misconception by establishment Dems that people who consider themselves independent means they are moderate. While that was the case 20 years ago, I don;t think that's the case anymore. I think with social media and the information blitz things have changed and the majority of the people that claim to be independent do so because they are fatigued, not moderate. They want something different to break what they believe is the crippling status quo. That's why they went Trump in 2016. It is why they'd go Warren or Bernie in 2020....but they won't vote in primaries.

Its not illogical. Social media absolutely changes things and its frankly batshit fcuking bananas to say it doesn't.

Oh bullshit. I'm providing logic you guys are providing feels. Why are the same? Please explain why the vastly different processes of primary and general elections are same other than your guys bullshit feelings?

Remember, your argument now, is that independents are all over the map, not concentrated Bernie voters.

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Did this thread jump back in time to discuss all this irrelevant Bernie stuff or something?

I thought people had moved on from the primaries.

Never! These Bernie supporters are not about issues... just reactionaries.

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Saying they are different means little when basing your entire argument on the fact that the results of one will match the other.

It’s literally better than the nothing you presented. It is an indicator and those that do treat it as empirical, are still more justified than ‘social media changes things’.

You have gotten it in your head that getting voters to turn out to vote once in the general is the same as getting people registering with a specific party, following the primaries, and going out to vote in the primaries during a pandemic.

There are only 9 states out of 50 that have closed primaries, 7 more have partially closed primaries:
https://www.ncsl.org/research/electi...ary-types.aspx

Bernie won Nevada, a closed state.
Bernie won Utah, a partially closed state.
Bernie won Connecticut, a closed state.

Half of Bernie’s won states came from the very closed states or partially closed states, that require registration to a political party. Bernie won 3 of the 16 states with closed/partially closed elections and 3 of 34 that were open. As in, Bernie had a better, not worse, chance to win in closed elections.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/pr...s-and-caucuses

Edit: Something else that’s fun... Bernie won WA primaries in 2016, when they were closed, but lost to Biden when they were open in 2020.

Edit 2: Just to undercut the possible reaction to the above... If you claim that Trump supporters voted Biden in open elections, I have a shit ton of Trump quotes telling his supporters to do exactly that... but... for Bernie, not Biden. It doesn’t look like it worked in any direction...

[Sunseeker]

Yeah, it is... you expect me to read this and not think it’s vindictive? lol

I expect you to read it an not cut out everything else I write.

/ignored

[Felya]

I expect you to read it an not cut out everything else I write.

Why? Why should I bother with a post that starts with antagonism, while trying to argue that it’s not vindictive? I read it, there is no point to discuss splitting hairs between what you consider catering and punishing. Because both of those are the same thing, with a different subjective spin. Why delve into a quagmire of subjectivity, when the first sentence shows a more objective perspective?

/ignored

I don’t ignore anyone... /flex

I don’t get emotional... robots 4 life...

Edit: I think the problem with Medicare for All, is that it’s not presented as catering to the right. It shouldn’t have been defined as a far left ideology. There is a very simple and obvious way to present it, but the all part of the name, wasn’t expressed effectively, letting Trump redefine it and run against it.

[Antiganon]

Kay. So at best he wasn't inspiring enough to get his supporters to take the necessary steps to support him beyond making tiny donations.

Maybe Bernie could have taken a few minutes away from repeating the exact same message every time he took to the stage to instruct folks on how to switch affiliations to vote for him.

He lost. Accept it and vote Biden if you ever want to be able to vote again.

Are you incapable of reading?

I voted Sanders/Clinton in 2016, and will be voting Biden in 2020. My state's primary was rescheduled from March to July so I didn't even vote because Bernie had already conceded the nomination.

People in this thread are bickering about whether Bernie would have been the better candidate.

Group A: But Bernie drives voter turnout among atypical voters!
Group B: But he couldn't improve turnout in the primary!
Me: Primaries and generals are very different electorates, so performance in one is not necessarily indicative of performance in the other. Also, we have no reliable data to suggest how the unaffiliated electorate might have voted in the general, because it is notoriously difficult to sample that electorate when polling.

But sure, I'm a whiny Bernie voter whose just yelling "you can't predict the future!".

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Did this thread jump back in time to discuss all this irrelevant Bernie stuff or something?

I thought people had moved on from the primaries.

The left destroying itself is a time honored tradition in American politics. Why would we ever move on from that?