Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Endus]

It says exactly what I wrote - most people are fencesitters that approve of some restrictions. There's no plausible reading of polling data that makes it seem like a 75-25 issue. When you ask people to just pick one side, they're a nearly even split, when you ask for more finegrained analysis, most people are in favor of some restrictions.

Your data contradicts the idea of any "even split".

It splits it into three camps;

"legal without any restrictions" at ~29%
"legal with some restrictions" at ~50%
And "banned completely regardless of circumstances", at 20%.

The status quo, that was set by Roe V. Wade, is that middle category. People who think the current law on abortion is fine, or should be even more accessible, they make up ~80%. Those who want to overturn Roe v. Wade and apply greater restrictions, they're the 20%. No more.

Even if you want to flip that around and try and argue about the 29% as if the 50 and 20% were a combined "side" (which is ridiculous), that's still a 70/30 split.

Your data source contradicts the idea that there is any kind of even split about abortion, in the USA.

[Machismo]

I'm not sure myself, but at the same time, at the end of the day, there is nothing that can/will prevent McConnell from bringing the nominee to a vote. He can even do it during the lame duck session, post election.

There are maybe three tactics the Democrats could use, including Impeachment, but they can't prevent a vote. And really, the vote is as simple as can be, disregarding the enormous historical affects. Vote it out of committee - nothing can delay that. Then full floor vote - again, nothing to delay it.

The only hope we have is getting two more GOP Senators to not vote until the new President has been decided, and if applicable, takes office. Collins and Murkowski have already "pledged" to not vote - but even that is tenuous. Especially if Collins loses - she'd be done in politics, so why wouldn't she vote in the lame duck session?

Romney and Gardner are our only hopes, and they are again tenuous at best, and again that still leaves open the lame duck session. I don't see any way to stop the GOP from replacing RBG.

This is what people seem to not realize, pinning their hopes on "moderate" Republicans has failed far too many times to even be considered an option at this point. Collins said what she needed to say to hopefully get re-elected. She knows that she is in by far the toughest spot, so I have no doubt that she was given the green light by McConnell to do this. The same goes for Murkowski. They get to pretend to be "concerned," when this is nothing more than political theater.

Now, let's look at Romney, the other supposed option. He's not going to do it, because it doesn't win him anything. Unlike Murkowski and Collins, he's never going to be in danger from the left, his biggest threat is from the right. He's one of those moderate Republicans who could easily get primaried based off a single vote like this. Romney is an absolute fucking coward, and he will not risk his career on something like this.

[Thekri]

This is what people seem to not realize, pinning their hopes on "moderate" Republicans has failed far too many times to even be considered an option at this point. Collins said what she needed to say to hopefully get re-elected. She knows that she is in by far the toughest spot, so I have no doubt that she was given the green light by McConnell to do this. The same goes for Murkowski. They get to pretend to be "concerned," when this is nothing more than political theater.

Now, let's look at Romney, the other supposed option. He's not going to do it, because it doesn't win him anything. Unlike Murkowski and Collins, he's never going to be in danger from the left, his biggest threat is from the right. He's one of those moderate Republicans who could easily get primaried based off a single vote like this. Romney is an absolute fucking coward, and he will not risk his career on something like this.

Does this require a simple majority of votes, or a majority of the senate? If Collins and Murkowski don't vote at all, that means there are only 98 senators voting, and 49 senators and Pence is all they need.

- - - Updated - - -

Now, let's look at Romney, the other supposed option. He's not going to do it, because it doesn't win him anything. Unlike Murkowski and Collins, he's never going to be in danger from the left, his biggest threat is from the right. He's one of those moderate Republicans who could easily get primaried based off a single vote like this. Romney is an absolute fucking coward, and he will not risk his career on something like this.

He voted to impeach Trump, knowing it wouldn't pass. That will get a GOP Senator primaried faster then this. I don't think he will vote for the nominee because he is afraid, I think he will vote for the nominee because it aligns with his ideological interests. If Trump puts up a semi-rational conservative justice in the vein of Gorsuch, Romney will vote for them because that is who he would nominate if he had won the presidency in 2012 and reelection in 2016.

[PACOX]

I've seen the idea being floated around the GOP really isn't all that interesting in getting rid of abortion.

Its a wedge issue just like healthcare to them. Actually passive decisive policy would eliminate said wedge issue for a cycle or two, thus eliminating and easy platform to campaign on/hold over the heads of single issue voters.

What they'll do it slow walk anything that actually eliminates abortion, tie it up it in the courts, or purposely leave an opening for any policy to be strict down - see Alabama on abortion over the past two years.

[cubby]

This is what people seem to not realize, pinning their hopes on "moderate" Republicans has failed far too many times to even be considered an option at this point. Collins said what she needed to say to hopefully get re-elected. She knows that she is in by far the toughest spot, so I have no doubt that she was given the green light by McConnell to do this. The same goes for Murkowski. They get to pretend to be "concerned," when this is nothing more than political theater.

Now, let's look at Romney, the other supposed option. He's not going to do it, because it doesn't win him anything. Unlike Murkowski and Collins, he's never going to be in danger from the left, his biggest threat is from the right. He's one of those moderate Republicans who could easily get primaried based off a single vote like this. Romney is an absolute fucking coward, and he will not risk his career on something like this.

Agree. I honestly don't see any of the potential four having any gumptions about a Lame Duck vote to seat RBG's replacement. And that right there ends the debate. Perhaps there are tactics Pelosi or Schumer could use that I don't know about - that quiver isn't exactly large or secret.

However, if Biden wins and the Senate flips, I sincerely hope the Democrats find the balls to do what is right and necessary.

- - - Updated - - -

The good news, if we can call it that, is four GOP held seats are looking less and less good.

Collins - ME
Gardiner - CO
McSally - AZ
Tillis - NC

All four GOP incumbents are trailing significantly in the polls. The bad news is that the Democrats lose a seat, Alabama, and so to decisively take the Senate, we need to flip five seats. So one more, assuming the four above flip.

[Rasulis]

I've seen the idea being floated around the GOP really isn't all that interesting in getting rid of abortion.

Its a wedge issue just like healthcare to them. Actually passive decisive policy would eliminate said wedge issue for a cycle or two, thus eliminating and easy platform to campaign on/hold over the heads of single issue voters.

What they'll do it slow walk anything that actually eliminates abortion, tie it up it in the courts, or purposely leave an opening for any policy to be strict down - see Alabama on abortion over the past two years.

I don't know if that is true or no. The reality is, unlike eliminating ACA, reversing Roe vs. Wade has little impact to day-to-day Planned Parenthood (PP) operation. As it is, states that are against abortion already made it very hard to get abortion in their states. There are less than 20 abortion clinics left in TX. Unless a woman live near Houston, Dallas, Austin or San Antonio, she may need to drive 500 miles or more to get to an abortion clinic. It is even worse in states like North Dakota, and 5 others, where there is only one abortion clinic in the entire state. PP has been sending their patients in anti-abortion states to pro-abortion states to get abortion. Also, with the advancement of Telemedicine, abortion with pills, which is FDA approved, has become easier. Look up TelAbortion. Even in states where it is illegal, there are ways to get those pills from reputable sources. It is not like the post office/UPS/FedEx are going start inspecting every single packages that they deliver.

- - - Updated - - -

Agree. I honestly don't see any of the potential four having any gumptions about a Lame Duck vote to seat RBG's replacement. And that right there ends the debate. Perhaps there are tactics Pelosi or Schumer could use that I don't know about - that quiver isn't exactly large or secret.

However, if Biden wins and the Senate flips, I sincerely hope the Democrats find the balls to do what is right and necessary.

- - - Updated - - -

The good news, if we can call it that, is four GOP held seats are looking less and less good.

Collins - ME
Gardiner - CO
McSally - AZ
Tillis - NC

All four GOP incumbents are trailing significantly in the polls. The bad news is that the Democrats lose a seat, Alabama, and so to decisively take the Senate, we need to flip five seats. So one more, assuming the four above flip.

Ernst in Iowa and Daines in Montana will be close. Lindsey Graham, according to Quinnipiac, is dead even with Harrison. If he got stuck in DC with the Supreme Court justice appointment, he may be short in time for electioneering.

[Thekri]

Ernst in Iowa and Daines in Montana will be close. Lindsey Graham, according to Quinnipiac, is dead even with Harrison. If he got stuck in DC with the Supreme Court justice appointment, he may be short in time for electioneering.

But Graham's time in DC may be the best electioneering he can do. Graham is running well behind Trump in SC, so if he can spotlight his absolute dedication to Trump, it could pull him ahead.

Iowa and Montana are both very vulnerable, and don't completely count out Georgia either. Purdue and Ossoff are really close, but count on Kemp's political machine to throw a close race to the GOP. Louffler is a lot more vulnerable though, she can't rely on a Nov. 3 turnout, and democrats are a lot more passionate about getting rid of her then Republican's are about keeping her. That is a seat that can flip in December, it won't be resolved on election day.

[Draco-Onis]

It says exactly what I wrote - most people are fencesitters that approve of some restrictions. There's no plausible reading of polling data that makes it seem like a 75-25 issue. When you ask people to just pick one side, they're a nearly even split, when you ask for more finegrained analysis, most people are in favor of some restrictions.

All of the legislations being put on the supreme court that will overturn Roe V. Wade bans abortion in all cases including that of rape and incest so there is no fence sitting here. They could possibly just rule that yaddi yadda states rights which politically the only narrative will be rape and incest victims being forced to carry babies of their rapists to term.

The republican party have taken it as far as they could when it comes to Roe V. Wade, the only threshold they can break now is the outright ban of all abortions.

[jonnysensible]

I've seen the idea being floated around the GOP really isn't all that interesting in getting rid of abortion.

.

whoever is floating this idea is a moron that doesnt understand the GOP or power.

[Thekri]

whoever is floating this idea is a moron that doesnt understand the GOP or power.

Pretty much, because even if they got rid of Roe v. Wade, they would still run on the democrats trying to put it back. They did the exact same thing on the assault weapons ban, they got rid of it, and they still run every election on "They are going to take yer guns!".

It doesn't have to be a real issue for them to run on it.

[minteK917]

Imagine being a country on the verge of going 30 years backward.

[cubby]

Ernst in Iowa and Daines in Montana will be close. Lindsey Graham, according to Quinnipiac, is dead even with Harrison. If he got stuck in DC with the Supreme Court justice appointment, he may be short in time for electioneering.

I hadn't been following the Iowa race. The Montana one might be close, but it's not flipping. Graham would be fantastic if Harrison could shunt him out - especially if the SCOTUS shenanigans kept him in D.C.

[Machismo]

Agree. I honestly don't see any of the potential four having any gumptions about a Lame Duck vote to seat RBG's replacement. And that right there ends the debate. Perhaps there are tactics Pelosi or Schumer could use that I don't know about - that quiver isn't exactly large or secret.

However, if Biden wins and the Senate flips, I sincerely hope the Democrats find the balls to do what is right and necessary.

- - - Updated - - -

The good news, if we can call it that, is four GOP held seats are looking less and less good.

Collins - ME
Gardiner - CO
McSally - AZ
Tillis - NC

All four GOP incumbents are trailing significantly in the polls. The bad news is that the Democrats lose a seat, Alabama, and so to decisively take the Senate, we need to flip five seats. So one more, assuming the four above flip.

I'm not sure if the Democrats take it, or not. Honestly, it will all be moot, if Trump wins, or when he gets another SCOTUS seat.

- - - Updated - - -

I've seen the idea being floated around the GOP really isn't all that interesting in getting rid of abortion.

Its a wedge issue just like healthcare to them. Actually passive decisive policy would eliminate said wedge issue for a cycle or two, thus eliminating and easy platform to campaign on/hold over the heads of single issue voters.

What they'll do it slow walk anything that actually eliminates abortion, tie it up it in the courts, or purposely leave an opening for any policy to be strict down - see Alabama on abortion over the past two years.

In reality, they are not, it gets them votes. The same goes for gun control. Those two issues alone give the GOP almost all their power. When it boils down to it, the GOP are far more authoritarian, and far more in favor of big government than the Democrats are.

[lockybalboa]

This is what people seem to not realize, pinning their hopes on "moderate" Republicans has failed far too many times to even be considered an option at this point. Collins said what she needed to say to hopefully get re-elected. She knows that she is in by far the toughest spot, so I have no doubt that she was given the green light by McConnell to do this. The same goes for Murkowski. They get to pretend to be "concerned," when this is nothing more than political theater.

Now, let's look at Romney, the other supposed option. He's not going to do it, because it doesn't win him anything. Unlike Murkowski and Collins, he's never going to be in danger from the left, his biggest threat is from the right. He's one of those moderate Republicans who could easily get primaried based off a single vote like this. Romney is an absolute fucking coward, and he will not risk his career on something like this.

I see you are camouflaging again Machismo? So who are you voting for? Whom should we "pin our hopes" on?

Biden is a creepy old dude, I will not be voting for the guy.

[Felya]

I see you are camouflaging again Machismo? So who are you voting for? Whom should we "pin our hopes" on?

Everyone knows he considers him self a libertarian and isn’t voting. I’m not sure what the point of this is...

[Draco-Onis]

Everyone knows he considers him self a libertarian and isn’t voting. I’m not sure what the point of this is...

It's kind of sad at this point Machismo has been very consistent with his views regardless of who holds the office.

[minteK917]

Imagine being one of the people cheering and hoping for it!

True. Somehow its a blessing the US has less influance now then ever. If this happened when you had post ww2 50+% of the world sucking the US feet. We would all be in dire social problems. Even so close as the northen border, we can just kinda look at the clown show south, Sigh, but at least its just some random mini trade war for us.

- - - Updated - - -

Everyone knows he considers him self a libertarian and isn’t voting. I’m not sure what the point of this is...

Libertarians are dumb in general. But at least hes part of the 1% that embrace the stupidity of it. Better then the other 99% that are in word only. The procced to vote anything but libertarian.

[Felya]

It's kind of sad at this point Machismo has been very consistent with his views regardless of who holds the office.

Sure... “consistent”... I chose to avoid adjectives...

Yeah, I think people have created an impression of hating people simply for not voting Biden. That’s not the issue... Machismo is an example of that...

[Blur4stuff]

The SC situation has some serious traps for both sides. Right now I don't think dems are overplaying it, but the republicans seem to be trying. Ramming through a pick doesn't get them the long term benefit they hope for since it gives dems all the leeway in the world to expand the court.

Meanwhile republicans damage their party even further. It's already hard for them to gain new voters due to all of the lying in hypocrisy layered on top of the corruption. This just shows everyone they can't be trusted and will stab you in the back the first chance they get. Why would someone who isn't brainwashed decide to start voting for republicans?

After the shit they pulled with Garland if they push through a pick then it gives dems the green light (with public support) to do anything and everything they've ever thought about doing, but didn't because they didn't want to overstep and tried to include republicans. This is something that frustrated dems with Obama for years. That barrier will be gone.

[lockybalboa]

Everyone knows he considers him self a libertarian and isn’t voting. I’m not sure what the point of this is...

Oh so now you are okay with people not voting? And he sure is leading by example ey? Acting like a hero and boasting about ending relationships (which I doubt he has any in the first place) and insulting people to vote Trump out yet he aint doing shit to do so himself. Typical Kbw.