Blizzard on Loot from Raids, Mythic+ and PvP in Shadowlands, Bonus Rolls Removed

[ZazuuPriest]

This is so much better. Nothing like spending resources on bonus rolls to get Gold 5x a week.

[Kaver]

Do we even know if LFR counts? Because if it doesn't, this new system severely punishes casual players as not only are they losing bonus rolls but they also won't benefit from the weekly chest.

I would be surprised if LFR didn’t count.

[TheRevenantHero]

I would be surprised if LFR didn’t count.

With how much elitists whine about LFR, I wouldn't be surprised.

[VinceVega]

With how much elitists whine about LFR, I wouldn't be surprised.

I see mostly casuals whining this time around... better yet, the term casual got redefined as someone who does not want to praticipate in any activity at all in this game and yet wants to get the same gear as the top mythic+/raid/pvp players for some reason

You don't want to play but also want to get the purplz.

And yes. The Weekly Chest does not specify difficulty. Just don't expect a mythic piece of loot if you only kill a few LFR bosses a week.

[Thundering]

less loot, but with more loot that actually matters good change!

[Trumpcat]

There is literally nothing suggesting that the RNG will get better. This change actually makes it WORSE. With bonus rolls you had two chances at gear, therefore you had a much bigger chance at getting gear you wanted from a boss. Taking that away makes RNG feel even more terrible when your one chance every week continues to fuck you over.

The thing about using the word "literally" and emphasizing words with caps is that they in no way make your statement truer than it is. :P In answer to various false guesses such as yours my lovely guildmate did the following model:

The setting: we are looking for how many weeks it will take for a character to fill up all its gear slots only using the M+ chest. The chest currently gives a choice of three items (compared to BfAs one item) of Mythic Raid ilvl. We assume that the type of items are selected randomly.
What we simulate: the number of weeks needed to acquire at least one item for each slot from the M+ chest. For each set of choices (1 choice per week, 2 choices per week and 3 choices per week) 100,000 simulations, each corresponding to one character's gearing path, were run.
Results: If we suppose that three choices are given each week, on average it would take 23.1 weeks (std = 5.3 weeks) to cover all slots. If we suppose that two choices are given each week, the average is 29.4 (std = 8.3 weeks). Finally, getting one choice per week (current BfA system) would take on average 49.8 weeks (std = 17.5 weeks).
I have provided histograms below for each case to give a clearer picture. To sum up, the multiple choices provided greatly speed up gearing compared to BfA even if you only use M+ dungeons to do it -- which is good thing for most players. The effect is pronounced even if you don't run too many M+ dungeons -- running 4 of them already gives a choice of two items which greatly speeds up gearing.

Finally can also add that naturally, the fewer the choices, the higher the variation (standard deviation) of the number of weeks required.

[TheRevenantHero]

The thing about using the word "literally" and emphasizing words with caps is that they in no way make your statement truer than it is. :P In answer to various false guesses such as yours my lovely guildmate did the following model:

The setting: we are looking for how many weeks it will take for a character to fill up all its gear slots only using the M+ chest. The chest currently gives a choice of three items (compared to BfAs one item) of Mythic Raid ilvl. We assume that the type of items are selected randomly.
What we simulate: the number of weeks needed to acquire at least one item for each slot from the M+ chest. For each set of choices (1 choice per week, 2 choices per week and 3 choices per week) 100,000 simulations, each corresponding to one character's gearing path, were run.
Results: If we suppose that three choices are given each week, on average it would take 23.1 weeks (std = 5.3 weeks) to cover all slots. If we suppose that two choices are given each week, the average is 29.4 (std = 8.3 weeks). Finally, getting one choice per week (current BfA system) would take on average 49.8 weeks (std = 17.5 weeks).
I have provided histograms below for each case to give a clearer picture. To sum up, the multiple choices provided greatly speed up gearing compared to BfA even if you only use M+ dungeons to do it -- which is good thing for most players. The effect is pronounced even if you don't run too many M+ dungeons -- running 4 of them already gives a choice of two items which greatly speeds up gearing.

Finally can also add that naturally, the fewer the choices, the higher the variation (standard deviation) of the number of weeks required.

Here is what you are not taking into account: the weekly chest will offer gear from the entire loot pool, increasing your chances to get doubles or items you simply don't need. Bonus rolls allowed you to target specific boss pools, therefore reducing RNG when it comes to getting your BiS gear. Your graphs there ignore that factor and therefore becomes invalid when it comes to the importance of bonus rolls.