Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PhaelixWW]

You are confusing Sweden with Germany

What a petty, condescending presumption. Shocking.

And wrong.

Sweden was running about 5-10% under the 5-year average mortality this year prior to the pandemic. So what you're calling a 7% over-report when simply comparing it to said 5-year average is quite likely to be close to "spot on" in terms of actual real-life numbers. You'd also note, if you were being honest, that I added an "almost" in there.

But nothing in your pointless, hastily-interjected pedantry changes the salient point, which is that if these people were so on death's door as to have imminently died anyway, then there would be no excess death. Whether said excess is 5900 or 5400 is moot to that discussion.

[postman1782]

This coronavirus is the most awful thing ever, I hope that everything is going to okay soon

Not with Trump at the helm.

[PACOX]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola.../#6d977a7b313a

I wonder if some of these people are going to look back and think they actively became a vector for the virus and may have spread it to others - for a crappy party.

I hope by some miracle none of these people get sick, for their sake and for others.

[Granyala]

In western Europe it seems that Germany, France, Denmark, Norway and some more seem to have correct numbers

Considering that hardly anyone is dying of C-19 these days in Germany, there isn't much to underreport in the first place.

[Forogil]

Sweden was running about 5-10% under the 5-year average mortality this year prior to the pandemic. So what you're calling a 7% over-report when simply comparing it to said 5-year average is quite likely to be close to "spot on" in terms of actual real-life numbers.

You didn't think this through at all, as your numbers weaken your case.

Variations in mortality can be due to long-terms trends in life expectancy, but thinking that Sweden for unknown reasons increased the life expectancy by a couple of years during the last year seems pretty far-fetched.

There are also statistical fluctuations. If we assume that deaths are uncorrelated: the standard deviation on a yearly basis should be about 300 deaths; and for the given time-period about 200 deaths; whereas the over-reporting was 447. For Germany the difference is likely within a standard deviation.

In reality the deaths during different parts of the year are correlated; intuitively it's positively correlated on a short (weekly/monthly) basis and negatively on a longer basis - and looking at excess deaths for previous years in a number of countries seem to confirm that.

The reason for the short-time positive correlation is that some of the deaths are due to extreme weather and non-covid infectious diseases (that cause multiple deaths at the same time); whereas the longer term negative correlation is in part that some people are close to death and if they don't die this month they will die the next one.

Which means that the negative excess deaths at the beginning of the year in Sweden that you bring up would in fact naturally lead to more excess deaths during the rest of the year; i.e. the exact opposite of the point you were trying to make.

You'd also note, if you were being honest, that I added an "almost" in there.

The phrase was "almost the exact"; and you stated in bold that people wouldn't have died from other causes.

That statement wasn't only without a shred of evidence, but actually when the evidence point in the other direction.

But nothing in your pointless, hastily-interjected pedantry changes the salient point,

You were the one that tried to "correct" someone, and you're right that the pedantry doesn't change that salient point.

The salient point is that the previous poster is correct. However, the overall effect is minor - i.e. perhaps 7% over-reporting in Sweden; neither 100% nor 0%.

I'm not interested in running around in circles discussing your "facts" and your allegations of "pedantry".

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Considering that hardly anyone is dying of C-19 these days in Germany, there isn't much to underreport in the first place.

It was the total not the monthly; but even then you are correct for Germany, Denmark and Norway.

For France 30k deaths compared to 600k deaths normally in a year is significant. But in perspective it's just a 5% increase in deaths, or 0.05% of the population - so far.

However, the main point was to contrast this with other countries: it's not merely the US that is/have been under-reporting covid-deaths but also Spain, Italy, uk, the Netherlands (and of course countries elsewhere as well; the Economist listed severe under-reporting in latin America).

That's why I find the fascination with the reported numbers is so odd. We have globally reached 33 557 611 reported cases, and 1 006 467 reported deaths; and perhaps another unreported million deaths and likely more than one or more hundred million cases.

[Strawberry]

And yet, the fact that Sweden's excess mortality is almost the exact total of their COVID-19 deaths indicates that no, they wouldn't have died from one of their other diseases during this pandemic so far.

I disagree.

[Granyala]

That's why I find the fascination with the reported numbers is so odd. We have globally reached 33 557 611 reported cases, and 1 006 467 reported deaths; and perhaps another unreported million deaths and likely more than one or more hundred million cases.

IIRC the dark figure is sth around x10, so I'd expect around 300M had the bug at this point.

[Felya]

I disagree.

Then what is causing the major spikes in deaths? If you disagree, you need to explain why there are death spikes across the world.

[Orange Joe]

Lol, so much Sweden bashing here.
The way the corona deaths in Sweden are calculated is if a near-death 90-year-old had several diseases along with corona and dies, they are added to the corona death pool. Even if they would have died from one of their other diseases.

There's also a reason why Sweden is often wrongly called "the rape capital of the world", while in fact, it isn't. It just calculates rape differently.

This is how it's done with pretty much everything. If a person with terminal cancer that is due to die in 3 hours dies in a sudden car wreck his death goes down to the car wreck.

[Forogil]

IIRC the dark figure is sth around x10, so I'd expect around 300M had the bug at this point.

That seems reasonable, but the dark figure varies - so it's hard to know.

One would hope it is lower now in Europe and N. America, but I would expect the dark figure is even worse in India, parts of latin America (like Brazil), and I have no idea of Africa - so it could be a lot worse.

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This is how it's done with pretty much everything. If a person with terminal cancer that is due to die in 3 hours dies in a sudden car wreck his death goes down to the car wreck.

Except the car-crash looks like a red herring - similar as the "run over by a bus": people with a few hours left to live due to severe diseases don't normally die in car wrecks; basically they are not that mobile - and I surely hope they are not driving the car.

And people dying with disease doesn't always have such a clear-cut reason as 'car crash'. There was a report (posted a few months ago) that studied people that had died with covid in Sweden (done by some physician or medical examiner). The result was 15% died solely of covid, 15% died solely of other causes - and 70% died due to a combination of covid and other causes; but it was a small non-representative sample (older and with other health problems; so they had a high probability of dying even without covid) and in the general population covid would more likely to be the cause of death.

[sabe]

Fucking rat eating chinese plagued the world with their shit.
Fucking cunts.
Mods still busy sucking chinese cock?
Hey fucking retard ban me again, fucking son of a bitch. Fuck your Chinese cock loving mother


[Infracted]

[breadisfunny]

garbage.

oh look it's back again....

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I disagree.

do you have anything to back that up other than your feels?

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola.../#6d977a7b313a

I wonder if some of these people are going to look back and think they actively became a vector for the virus and may have spread it to others - for a crappy party.

I hope by some miracle none of these people get sick, for their sake and for others.

on another note: imo he should have gotten 5 years prison time.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...f-covid-order/

[Zan15]

Then what is causing the major spikes in deaths? If you disagree, you need to explain why there are death spikes across the world.

politics and the people who dismiss science.

they are causing thousands of people a day to face palm themselves to death.

SEE not covid related!!



/s

[Granyala]

That seems reasonable, but the dark figure varies - so it's hard to know.
One would hope it is lower now in Europe and N. America,

Actually I would like it to be higher. ( # of Infections not death count ofc, although I am sure the latter is severely underreported in less developed countries)
Higher = better because it means that the virus is basically less dangerous.

[Felya]

politics and the people who dismiss science.

they are causing thousands of people a day to face palm themselves to death.

SEE not covid related!!



/s

If it’s not covid, we need to get to the bottom of it... there maybe a pandemic raging, while we are distracted by covid. /facepalm

[Zan15]

if it’s not covid, we need to get to the bottom of it... There maybe a pandemic raging, while we are distracted by covid. /facepalm

damit medic medic....another facepalm incident....can i get a god damn medic over here!!!

[PhaelixWW]

You didn't think this through at all, as your numbers weaken your case.

No, actually, they really don't.

Variations in mortality can be due to long-terms trends in life expectancy, but thinking that Sweden for unknown reasons increased the life expectancy by a couple of years during the last year seems pretty far-fetched.

Here's where I would point out that it would be over the last 3-6 years, not the last year, as we're comparing an average of the five years prior to this year to this year. Sweden's mortality rate was over 20% higher 30 years ago and nearly 15% higher just 17 years ago.

Regardless, Sweden's mortality rate for the early part of 2020 was demonstrably lower by a good 5-10%. Would this trend have continued throughout the year? It's impossible to say for sure, now, of course. The point is that I could make a good faith argument that it might have, and that it was partly based upon this that I considered the excess death in Sweden to be within the realm of "almost" a match, a point which you cannot fundamentally disprove.

Nor does it matter at all, in the slightest, in regards to the original point that was being made.

I could also quite easily argue that even a 7% over-reported figure was within the realm of "almost" when compared with the vast majority of figures which lie in the 30% to 500% range of under-reporting.

But again, it does it matter at all, in the slightest, in regards to the original point that was being made.

Which means that the negative excess deaths at the beginning of the year in Sweden that you bring up would in fact naturally lead to more excess deaths during the rest of the year; i.e. the exact opposite of the point you were trying to make.

That's not necessarily true, though, is it. And even if some of the 10% under was accounted for later, it doesn't necessarily imply that the adjusted yearly rate wouldn't still be decently below the 5-year average. The year could quite easily start at -10% and end up at -4% due to later-season adjustments.

The phrase was "almost the exact"

And thus the pedantry. The word choice here is completely incidental to the point being made. But go ahead and continue to argue about what "almost" meant to me.

But I've had enough with your needless, pedantic tangents.

[Forogil]

No, actually, they really don't.

Except if you actually understood it you see that your numbers weaken your case.

Or in short: stop adding your pedantic "refutations" - when the facts say different; and then try to weasel out by highlighting one word, like "almost" below:

And yet, the fact that Sweden's excess mortality is almost the exact total of their COVID-19 deaths indicates that no, they wouldn't have died from one of their other diseases during this pandemic so far.

And don't expect an answer.

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Actually I would like it to be higher. ( # of Infections not death count ofc, although I am sure the latter is severely underreported in less developed countries)
Higher = better because it means that the virus is basically less dangerous.

Good point.

And I also believe that deaths are underreported in less developed countries, but I don't know - and on the other hand they don't have many elderly so it might be loss of a problem than expected, and I haven't heard many reports of overcrowded hospitals and morgues in Africa; but that might be selective reporting.

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In Holland the first studies have shown that the majority of infections, even after lockdown are primarily happening in migrant populations (50% more than natives). Reason most likely being weddings and other cultural events while not upholding the rules local authorities put in place.

It's not uncommon - but migrants are also normally poorer, and some blame socioeconomic factors contributing to high rates of infections: crowded living (in some countries more multi-generational living), less possibility to work from home, more use of public transports, etc.

Likely it's a combination of many factors.

The socioeconomic aspect is causing a problem in e.g. Madrid, where they tried to have different rules based on the number of infections, since that meant the poor should have more restrictions than the rich (based on the number of infections; but still doesn't look good): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54227057

[PhaelixWW]

Except if you actually understood it you see that your numbers weaken your case.

Except that I understand just fine. Your argument make certain false and/or unprovable assumptions, which I pointed out.

Or in short: stop adding your pedantic "refutations" - when the facts say different; and then try to weasel out by highlighting one word, like "almost" below:

And yet the facts don't say different, which was also in the part of my reply that you failed to respond to.

And actually, a large part of my "refutation" was arguing against your highlighting of that word.

Regardless, a few percent either way makes no meaningful difference to the truth of the bolded portion.

And don't expect an answer.

Fantastic. If you want to lurk rather than dive into ridiculous tangents, that's ideal.

[postman1782]

Fucking rat eating chinese plagued the world with their shit.
Fucking cunts.
Mods still busy sucking chinese cock?
Hey fucking retard ban me again, fucking son of a bitch. Fuck your Chinese cock loving mother


[Infracted]

Wow. Talk about unhinged.