Guessing the new Shadowlands release date

[Sarethion]

I agree whole heartedly. It's the only date that makes sense to me when considering all the different things they have to think about. You don't want holidays to interfere with world first race, at least I'm pretty sure they dont

I'm not really sure they care all that much about the race. I mean, the world first guys might not like it, but they'll play anyway. If anything, I think the bigger problem is trying not to screw everyone else who likes raiding.

[Malefic]

November 17th is my guess. That gives roughly a month of prepatch, and let’s face it if they delay it any further they’re shooting themselves in the foot

Okay let's look at what we can infer from the announcement.

We can safely say that if they believed it would only be a couple of weeks delay, they probably would have given a new date. If they felt they only needed another 2-3 weeks they would have just brought out a new date with the announcement.

This can be seen further by the fact that whilst the pre-patch is being released, the event isn't, they've stated that will come later. Now in theory that could be a week later, or two, but if this was the case they again they would have probably just released the event with the pre-patch and let it linger for a few weeks. In other pre-patches historically the event finishes a week or 2 before the launch.

It's also very likely and possible now that they will be looking at being considerate to thanksgiving, as well as Christmas.

Therefore, I believe a release date will be early/mid December (December 8th to be precise), with the raid launching early January (January 5th to be precise).

[Onikaroshi]

Okay let's look at what we can infer from the announcement.

We can safely say that if they believed it would only be a couple of weeks delay, they probably would have given a new date. If they felt they only needed another 2-3 weeks they would have just brought out a new date with the announcement.

This can be seen further by the fact that whilst the pre-patch is being released, the event isn't, they've stated that will come later. Now in theory that could be a week later, or two, but if this was the case they again they would have probably just released the event with the pre-patch and let it linger for a few weeks. In other pre-patches historically the event finishes a week or 2 before the launch.

It's also very likely and possible now that they will be looking at being considerate to thanksgiving, as well as Christmas.

Therefore, I believe a release date will be early/mid December (December 8th to be precise), with the raid launching early January (January 5th to be precise).

They're still on vaca jan 5th, it would be the week after which is 5 weeks which is WAY too freaking long without anything to do.

[Yunzi]

November 9th PST is the most likely release date, two weeks after the initial date. This still gives them 10 days after release until Cyberpunk 2077 is released, avoiding direct competition, and the 4 week Prepatch duration is the most common prepatch length across the game's expansions.

Later than that falls into various problems - the holidays and Cyberpunk 2077 being the most prominent. There's also the potential of a shareholder backlash the longer we go without the expansion bringing in additional revenue.

[Soisoisoi]

I'd imagine early-mid November, or mid December with January raid openings. It won't happen on election day or Thanksgiving, especially with the latter meaning a raid open on Christmas or a really long time with nothing to do.

Also don't forget it doesn't have to release on a Tuesday/Wednesday, BfA released on the 14th of August - a Friday. I derped, wrong year! - WoD released on a Thursday.

[Rustedsaint]

December I would think due to consoles/games in nov

[Destinas]

I'm guessing early December. They're not going to release it around Thanksgiving, Cyberpunk's release, and Christmas/Hanukkah.

And, early November would be a waste, since that would be very close to their original release date of October 26th. There wouldn't be a need for them to withhold the release date from their announcement if they only needed a few days to tweak things.

[Sargerus]

December 8th.

[Nyel]

I'd imagine early-mid November, or mid December with January raid openings. It won't happen on election day or Thanksgiving, especially with the latter meaning a raid open on Christmas or a really long time with nothing to do.

Also don't forget it doesn't have to release on a Tuesday/Wednesday, BfA released on the 14th of August - a Friday.

I agree with your entire post, but BfA launched on a Tuesday.

[Mojo03]

Won’t be November because of new consoles, games, holiday, etc.

December 1st is too close to Thanksgiving for staff. 15th is too close to Xmas.

It’s December 8th if it’s 2020, which is will be. 99% chance.

The good news is they said they’re done with basically everything but tuning. So they’re most likely working on patches now, which means better patches, since more time.

[Megitsune]

I really don't think they'll release until sometime in December.

From a business standpoint, to me it wouldn't make sense to release in November. The month of November is crowded with PS5 release, Xbox Series X release, and multiple big games like Valhalla and Cyberpunk. Their sales and the overall amount of people putting time into Shadowlands would be negatively affected.

[Tiberria]

I think December 8 is the most likely release date, with December 1 and November 17 as my 2nd and 3rd picks.

November 10 - Can't see it happening, as it's only 2 extra weeks, and if that is really all they needed, they would have just run hardcore crunch time and/or released it with bugs to hotfix later. Can't see them biting the bullet of the negative press of an expansion release to buy 2 extra weeks.

November 17 - Even a 3 week delay seems kind of questionable to delay an entire expansion for, but I see this date as plausible. It is only 9 days shy of Thanksgiving, so it could be problematic if they have employees needed to support launch issues with plans for that.

November 24 - Highly unlikely that they'd release 2 days before a major US holiday. They would be fixing server issues and hotfixing problems when most of their staff is off.

December 1 - I think the most likely scenario is that they release in early December and release the raid/M+/PvP season right after New Years. I don't think that would get that many complaints, because while it would be 4-5 weeks of release before raids are open, they have always done 2-3 recently, and a couple extra weeks right at Christmas time likely won't get that many complaints.

December 8 - I see December 8 as more likely than December 1, just because that date would mean a 4 week gap between release and raid release, while still having 2.5 weeks before Christmas to iron out any release issues before the holidays. Just seems like the best balance to me.

December 15, 22 and 29 - Way too close to Christmas to to be viable dates. If it can't be released by December 8, they would have to delay to 2021.

I also actually think a December release / January raid release would be better/make more people happy than a November release, because if you release November 17, you are probably opening Mythic raids on December 15, and putting the 2nd week of Mythic prog right into the week of Christmas. That's a fairly awful timeline for a lot of people, especially after they just threw people's vacation schedules out the window with the delay to begin with.

I also think there's a non-zero possibility that this isn't the only delay, and they actually will end up pushing it into January or later. They have an earnings call in the next month, so even if they knew it's such a mess they need a January/February release, they wouldn't want to say that before an earnings call, because they would then get clowned over it. I would not be shocked if shortly after that call, we find out it's actually 2021, although I still see early December as highest probability.

[hulkgor]

Pretty sure it wont be a 'few weeks delay', and considering election, holidays, etc. It will release early December (8-15th of December).

[Onikaroshi]

I'd imagine early-mid November, or mid December with January raid openings. It won't happen on election day or Thanksgiving, especially with the latter meaning a raid open on Christmas or a really long time with nothing to do.

Also don't forget it doesn't have to release on a Tuesday/Wednesday, BfA released on the 14th of August - a Friday.

BfA launched on mon/tues. It was WoD that launched on a thurs

- - - Updated - - -

I think December 8 is the most likely release date, with December 1 and November 17 as my 2nd and 3rd picks.

November 10 - Can't see it happening, as it's only 2 extra weeks, and if that is really all they needed, they would have just run hardcore crunch time and/or released it with bugs to hotfix later. Can't see them biting the bullet of the negative press of an expansion release to buy 2 extra weeks.

November 17 - Even a 3 week delay seems kind of questionable to delay an entire expansion for, but I see this date as plausible. It is only 9 days shy of Thanksgiving, so it could be problematic if they have employees needed to support launch issues with plans for that.

November 24 - Highly unlikely that they'd release 2 days before a major US holiday. They would be fixing server issues and hotfixing problems when most of their staff is off.

December 1 - I think the most likely scenario is that they release in early December and release the raid/M+/PvP season right after New Years. I don't think that would get that many complaints, because while it would be 4-5 weeks of release before raids are open, they have always done 2-3 recently, and a couple extra weeks right at Christmas time likely won't get that many complaints.

December 8 - I see December 8 as more likely than December 1, just because that date would mean a 4 week gap between release and raid release, while still having 2.5 weeks before Christmas to iron out any release issues before the holidays. Just seems like the best balance to me.

December 15, 22 and 29 - Way too close to Christmas to to be viable dates. If it can't be released by December 8, they would have to delay to 2021.

I also actually think a December release / January raid release would be better/make more people happy than a November release, because if you release November 17, you are probably opening Mythic raids on December 15, and putting the 2nd week of Mythic prog right into the week of Christmas. That's a fairly awful timeline for a lot of people, especially after they just threw people's vacation schedules out the window with the delay to begin with.

I also think there's a non-zero possibility that this isn't the only delay, and they actually will end up pushing it into January or later. They have an earnings call in the next month, so even if they knew it's such a mess they need a January/February release, they wouldn't want to say that before an earnings call, because they would then get clowned over it. I would not be shocked if shortly after that call, we find out it's actually 2021, although I still see early December as highest probability.

Nov 17 would put mythic on the 8th, not the 15th, there's only a 2 week lockout thankfully this time.

[Hinastorm]

Raids opening 2 weeks after launch would litterally put mythic progress in the middle of the holidays if they released the 1st

I certainly hope the world first race that consists of a few hundred players is not a factor in their decisions. But who am I kidding, sigh.

[Onikaroshi]

I certainly hope the world first race that consists of a few hundred players is not a factor in their decisions. But who am I kidding, sigh.

It's not just about the world first race. They literally delayed 8.3 to jan because people don't like to progress during the holidays.

[MrLachyG]

I reckon November 16/17. That gives them an extra 3 weeks and a lot can happen in 3 weeks. That date is also based on them wanting the new raid out this year, which would be Dec 1.

If they don’t care about the first raid release date and are happy to wait til 2021 then I reckon Dec 7/8 for expansion release and then raid release is Jan 11

[Tesshin83]

Desember 15th or 22nd with season 1 and raiding starts early January. Unless that screws up the raid as every half assed player will be in full pre-raid bis at that point.

No way they will put Castle Nathria progression during xmas.

And if they allready gone through the pain of delaying, they might as well do it properly.

[Ryonas]

November 9. It was originally going to be on a Monday, so no reason to think it won't still be.

[Onikaroshi]

Desember 15th or 22nd with season 1 and raiding starts early January. Unless that screws up the raid as every half assed player will be in full pre-raid bis at that point.

No way they will put Castle Nathria progression during xmas.

And if they allready gone through the pain of delaying, they might as well do it properly.

they aren't going to release that close to christmas, specially not the week of (though would be interesting to have the expansion release on my birthday)