Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Bodakane]

thug culture being revered and single parenthood for once.
if you think all your problems are due to evil republicans and a lack of democrat power in your cities and states, well...

Please define thug culture and be precise and give examples.

[TigTone]

Please define thug culture and be precise and give examples.

If he does I’m sure he will be banned for racism.

[Breccia]

This is where

So 538 has an extensive article about who won the debate, and their answer is clear:

Biden.

1) They did a before/after about favorable/unfavorable opinion on both candidates. Biden started higher and they both increased the same amount. Biden started with more favorable than unfavorable and stayed there. Trump stayed with more unfavorable than favorable and stayed there.

2) People were asked "how likely are you to vote for" both candidates. Biden started higher (rated 0-10, Biden started 5.2 and Turmp 3.8) and slipped to 5.1 while Trump didn't move.

3) People were asked "how likely is XXX to win" and Biden started with 4.8 and Trump 4.5 Both went up 0.1

4) Biden supporters said they were more likely to vote, and more excited about voting, than Trump supporters.

But the main issue is, and remains, that Trump is behind nationally by 9+ and has been for weeks. Trump needed a boost from the debate. He didn't get one.

Other sources, such as this ABC News story and this NBC News story, go more specific, namely, seniors. Both detail how seniors are legitimately concerned that Trump will kill them, having not done enough to deal with the lethal outbreak other than encourage people not to wear masks and wander around in public. Both of those articles were published Friday, so, after the debate.

[Rasulis]

It's still encouraging, because higher turnout is just great, with the added benefit it usually helps dem's, which is why pub's like to supress.

This will definitely proof whether Texas is really a red state or a low voting blue state. Harris County voted overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016 and even more so for Democrats in 2018. As of today, Harris County surpassed 1 million ballots cast (1.34M total vote in 2016). The votes in Harris County currently account for 15% of Texas total votes. Voters under 29 make up 13.8 percent of the in-person early vote, nearly double their 7.4 percent in 2016. Voters aged 30 to 39 are 17.3 percent of the total, 5 points higher than the last presidential cycle. These younger voters are more likely to support Democrats than the older voters.

The signs are good. This is still Texas, so I am not totally confident that Biden can win. However, if the bubble burst in Texas, the next ten years will be a difficult decade for the GOP. Clinton won Harris County by 12 pts. Biden will likely win it by 20 pts. Will it be enough to win Texas? I don't know. We'll have to look at the turnout in Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, Hidalgo and El Paso. If those counties have the same kind of turnout, Biden has a really good chance at winning Texas.

BTW, the picture below gives the impression that Trump was resting his gut on the podium during the debate. Am I being weird or was that a very unusual standing position?

[eschatological]

In the days of this last Mooch, the polls will tighten up, and inevitably so will my butt-clenching.

I'm in a couple of D&D groups, one which I DM, and I'm totally distracted from both of them. The one I play in, all the players do is talk about how they spend their time thinking about their characters. I told them I never think of my character between sessions, because RP of a character that feels alive almost always comes from a place of improv.

So they ask me, "What do you do with your week?" to which I responded "Work?" And then they were like....."Well no, I mean, what do you think of in the shower?"

And the sad thing is.......I think about politics, and changing this country, and where this country needs to go, in the shower.

My username is eschatological for a reason - eschatology, with a lower case 'e' isn't a theological study. It's the study of human destiny: of where we are going, where we should be going, and what we ought to be.

I hope this final Mooch doesn't destroy that question for me with a resounding "nowhere."

[Deja Thoris]

I have to agree.

This is a good opinion piece in the guardian that articulates it well. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-donald-trump

My thought - or hope - is that the Democrats lost in 2016 due to a confluence of factors that won't be repeated. Voter apathy because nobody liked Hilary, an honest desire for change etc etc. It's like when you doing something daring and stupid, you get the buzz from your audacity but the fact is that the USA has had 4 years for the buzz to fade and for reality to set in. I hope most people see that the reality sucks.

There is no voter apathy now. This result will be a clear and unambiguous referendum on who the American people are.

I hope I'm not disappointed because if Trump wins you ain't the shining beacon people look up to anymore.

[Kaleredar]

I have to agree.

This is a good opinion piece in the guardian that articulates it well. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-donald-trump

My thought - or hope - is that the Democrats lost in 2016 due to a confluence of factors that won't be repeated. Voter apathy because nobody liked Hilary, an honest desire for change etc etc. It's like when you doing something daring and stupid, you get the buzz from your audacity but the fact is that the USA has had 4 years for the buzz to fade and for reality to set in. I hope most people see that the reality sucks.

There is no voter apathy now. This result will be a clear and unambiguous referendum on who the American people are.

I hope I'm not disappointed because if Trump wins you ain't the shining beacon people look up to anymore.

I'm almost wholly confident that Biden will win the popular vote, perhaps even by a rather embarrassingly large margin.

The electoral college is the toss-up, here. Like in 2016, it could very well come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a handful of districts that end up swinging key states in Trump's favor and handing him a narrow victory.

And hell, there's the chance that Biden even ostensibly wins that and Trump, through contesting the results because of accusations of "mail-in fraud" or intentional post office delays in a handful of states with a handful of sympathetic governors and judges, is able to get the votes recast in his favor. I don't think that's very likely, but I would much rather not even invite the chance of it happening.

This election is less in the hands of the American people directly than I'd like it to be, in essence.

Like I've said before, one of my prime hopes for this election is that, should Biden win and the democrats take the senate, they make a major move to abolish the electoral college in favor of the popular vote. It's far too easily manipulated and swayed by the whims of a handful of capricious districts in a handful of wishy-washy states.

[PickleballAce]

BTW, the picture below gives the impression that Trump was resting his gut on the podium during the debate. Am I being weird or was that a very unusual standing position?

His posture has been needled every now and then when we get pictures like this. General consensus is that he wears lifts because he's vain and insecure about his height (what else is new?), and that combined with his prodigious gut cause him to stand like he's about to topple over.

[DingDongKing]

Random question because I’m lazy. The early voting figure. Does that also take account of ballots that have been sent in my mail?

[PACOX]

Random question because I’m lazy. The early voting figure. Does that also take account of ballots that have been sent in my mail?

Typically depends on the county and ultimately the state. Mine does. But it's in Florida where mail-ins are pretty standard and considered part of the 'traditional voting' process.

[Draco-Onis]

I was talking about cities, not the states as a whole.
yeah, multiple democrat mayors over decades had no power to prevent their cities becoming hellholes
this is beyond embarrassing indeed

And? how does that change basic politics? you are just spouting nonsense you seem to think mayors are like dictators in cities.

[s_bushido]

And? how does that change basic politics? you are just spouting nonsense you seem to think mayors are like dictators in cities.

I think we should stop conceding that these places are 'hellholes' in the first place. They're not. This is just bullshit propaganda, and it's not a good idea to let propagandists (or those so out of touch with reality that they buy it) to frame the conversation.

[Felya]

And? how does that change basic politics? you are just spouting nonsense you seem to think mayors are like dictators in cities.

... or that Biden is running for mayor. If anyone claims they are better of now, than they were 4 years ago, they are billionaires who didn’t need it in the first place. Trump is incapable of dealing with anything, be it because of mayors, Hunter Biden, China, Satan worshipers, what ever the fuck Trump’s flavor of the day is... How about we get a president that can... we had 44 presidents before Trump, that could... if he can’t, hit the road toadstool...

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I think we should stop conceding that these places are 'hellholes' in the first place. They're not. This is just bullshit propaganda, and it's not a good idea to let propagandists (or those so out of touch with reality that they buy it) to frame the conversation.

They were not called hellholes until Trump... the problem is obvious. Trump cut deductibles in his corporate give away, then got the fuck out, to a state with lower taxes for the rich, Florida. He is grabbing more money from NY through federal coffers, while bitching that it sucks. Ass hole...

[Ursus]

A heavily-armed North Carolina man who was arrested in May for child pornography had researched Joe Biden:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/us/no...den/index.html

A heavily armed man arrested in North Carolina in May and indicted by a grand jury in September for possession of child pornography researched and traveled near the residence of former Vice President Joe Biden, according to information disclosed in a federal court filing.

Between March and May 2020, Alexander Hillel Treisman conducted internet searches on Biden's home address and traveled within 4 miles of the Biden residence, according to a detention order signed by a federal magistrate judge.

After describing Treisman's alleged interest in Biden, the judge wrote that authorities also discovered a checklist believed to have been written by the defendant, which included the word "execute." Also included in a list of evidence noted by the judge was an online meme posted by Treisman in April 2020 with the caption: "should I kill joe biden?"

The information about the former Vice President was included among a lengthy list of evidence that prosecutors included in his case. Although a grand jury indicted Treisman for possession of child pornography, he has not been charged in relation to the weapons in his possession, or his research or writings on Biden. Prosecutors declined to talk about any potential future charges.

What I want to know is where was QAnon in all of this? I thought they "fight against pedophilia very hard". Why weren't they onto this guy?

[Felya]

A heavily-armed North Carolina man who was arrested in May for child pornography had researched Joe Biden:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/us/no...den/index.html

What I want to know is where was QAnon in all of this? I thought they "fight against pedophilia very hard". Why weren't they onto this guy?

There is a string of this... The owner of 8chan or what ever it is now, is in Philippines, and is one of those. He is speculated as being Q him self. They had mods busted for it and shit. One of their main organizers in their chats was busted for it. It’s like a way for them to have deniability, without alerting actual authorities.

Remember, the idea of what child trafficking looks like by Q, is a 70s Italian horror movie... the reality is very different and the politicians they defend, actively fight social programs that actually help children.

Edit: Sasha Baren Cohen stumbled onto a child trafficking ring, when he was doing his Across America show, giving shit to republicans. A concierge offer him a kid and told him how to cover it up. He also told him he had political and business connections. The segment didn’t air and they handed the video over to FBI... who chose not to investigate... he literally offered him a kid... QAnon seems to be an unwitting cover...

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I don't care if a neo-liberal thinks I'm not a progressive. I've already shown I was early on funding Justice Democrats and others who have gotten into congress while you defend those who benefit soley off their public positions and the ties to public policy.

I forgot to ask... Do you see anything funky about complaining that someone called your rhetoric, Republican/altright, while you call people neo-liberal? Do you notice either the hypocrisy or the distinction?

[DingDongKing]

Huge overnight drop. I haven’t looked at swing states yet, but I would expect further tightening in the next 10 days. I’d thought +8 but +5/6 seems more likely at this juncture. Part of me also feels like their ‘aggressive tightening’ is to show a tighter race.

[Omega10]

Huge overnight drop. I haven’t looked at swing states yet, but I would expect further tightening in the next 10 days. I’d thought +8 but +5/6 seems more likely at this juncture. Part of me also feels like their ‘aggressive tightening’ is to show a tighter race.

At this point the election is just too stressful for me to keep up with. My feeling now is that its 40% chance of Biden win, 60% chance of Trump win.

I'm bracing myself for 4 more very bad years for the US. Things can always get worse.

[Draco-Onis]

I think we should stop conceding that these places are 'hellholes' in the first place. They're not. This is just bullshit propaganda, and it's not a good idea to let propagandists (or those so out of touch with reality that they buy it) to frame the conversation.

I think the most ironic part is that you now have people who used to call themselves conservatives arguing against states rights. They are basically calling for big government to run state affairs now because their guy is in office.

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At this point the election is just too stressful for me to keep up with. My feeling now is that its 40% chance of Biden win, 60% chance of Trump win.

I'm bracing myself for 4 more very bad years for the US. Things can always get worse.

Yea polls don't take into account voter suppression, voter intimidation, rigged judiciary throwing out ballots or deciding (Amy Covid Barret) not to mention republicans making last minute changes to voting for minorities. This election the right wing is pulling out all the stops they have the full power of the federal government and foreign actors to keep Trump in office.

[Endus]

I think the most ironic part is that you now have people who used to call themselves conservatives arguing against states rights. They are basically calling for big government to run state affairs now because their guy is in office.

Because "States' rights" has always been a cover, ever since it was used to cover up the desire to own and abuse slaves. It's not what they actually believe. It's just about a desire for their own ability to be abusive to go unchecked by federal regulation.

[Adam Jensen]

Because "States' rights" has always been a cover, ever since it was used to cover up the desire to own and abuse slaves. It's not what they actually believe. It's just about a desire for their own ability to be abusive to go unchecked by federal regulation.

Ironically, the CSA had fewer states rights than the Union. And the enforcement of the Fugitive Slave law, one of the things that triggered the Civil War, was completely opposite the idea of "States Rights." The South claimed to love states rights, but got mad when northern states refused to comply with the Fugitive Slave Law.