Mafia Monster Mash

[Graeham]

You have been wishy washy

" think I may have been bitten" with no evidence to prove that you have. Just some random ass statement live youve made all game.

Furthermore, nobody but Firebert has explicitly claimed to have been bitten. Of course, what's to say that Firebert hasn't since been turned or will be either tonight or the night after that?

Anyone focusing on me by claiming I rushed to defend Xanjori is very likely to be scum looking for an easy lynch. It conveniently doesn't take into account what I've been doing before that day phase and there's players who have done absolutely nothing of note/have been far shadier by comparison who are getting a pass.

Nobody seems to be entertaining the idea that I'm a vampire, either. It's always 'GRAEHAM IS A WOLF, WE NEED TO LYNCH A WOLF' which is pretty bizarre.

[Marack]

Nobody seems to be entertaining the idea that I'm a vampire, either. It's always 'GRAEHAM IS A WOLF, WE NEED TO LYNCH A WOLF' which is pretty bizarre.

Play seems more along the lines of wolf then vamp.

IMO, i put you wolf > town > vamp in that order

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@foxximcleod

I know its election day and all in the US... so how about a vote count

[FoxxiMcLeod]

Play seems more along the lines of wolf then vamp.

IMO, i put you wolf > town > vamp in that order

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@foxximcleod

I know its election day and all in the US... so how about a vote count

Sure, count inc in a few

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Current Vote Tally:

2 - Graeham ( Catta #1133 , Crackleslap #1235 )

2 - Bwonsamdi ( Marack #1163 , Graeham #1225 )

2 - Catta ( Firebert #1111, Val #1194 )

1 - Firebert ( Lora #1189 )


With 10 alive majority lynch is 6
Day 5 deadline: Wednesday 11/4 @9 pm EST

[Omertocracy]

So where does town get the most value today?

10 alive: 1 Vamp (for sure), 3 Wolves, 6 VT
worst case scenario is down 3 townies in 1 day/night phase
best case, down only 1 town

Voting off a wolf?
-Puts us to 2 wolves
-Marked gets turned, putting us to 2 vamps
-Wolf hits Town, 3 town left

Voting off VE (likely only vamp left)?
-3 wolves
-wolf kills town, 5 town let

Vote off Town
-Mark converted, 2 vamps
-wolfs kill town, 3 wolves
-3 town left

Obviously for town to win, we need to correctly vote of a wolf or vamp, otherwise we are fucked.

*As much as ive disliked Firebert in early game, I think he is one of the most townie in recent days.
*Agent of Chaos Lora I have in the townie pile, but wouldnt put it past to be the VE.
*Dont know if Foxxi would put a new played as a major role like VE, but could see them on a scum team. So have bwom in the wolf pile
*Grae wasnt hard defending Xan, but was certainly deflecting from Xan... so I can see that as helping a scum buddy. But playing devil's advocate, can see the "see if from a different angle" approach"

I need to go back and get better ideas on how I feel listo, catta, crackle, Val and omer lay... TBH, i forgot that val and omer were playing

Forgot a possible outcome today. VE gives up on recruiting and just goes around marking, hopes to vote out wolves and instantly win with marked towns.

[Graeham]

Forgot a possible outcome today. VE gives up on recruiting and just goes around marking, hopes to vote out wolves and instantly win with marked towns.

Possibly. It can't be ruled out. I still think the better option is to eliminate a suspected vampire during this day phase. The entire point of playing as a human is supposed to be to win as a human, though I fear a couple of players - Catta and Crackle, in specific - are either vampires already or are counting on being recruited so they can win regardless of whether or not it screws over whoever they throw under the bus.

[Firebert]

Furthermore, nobody but Firebert has explicitly claimed to have been bitten. Of course, what's to say that Firebert hasn't since been turned or will be either tonight or the night after that?

For anyone thinking that we don't have two Vampires right now (like I did initially), it is possible:

*For N1, I was bitten by Dupti, and Robozerim was Marked.
*For N2, Dupti either did not bite anyone or was blocked (as he did not vote in D3), and Robozerim was Turned.
*For N3, Robozerim bit the Witch and died, and Dupti's bite was blocked (vote did not count D4). Dupti claims Xanjori was attempted to be Marked; note that we have no idea if this is true.
*For N4, it is possible that the Marked player (if it was not Xanjori) could have been turned.
*It is now D5.

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Forgot a possible outcome today. VE gives up on recruiting and just goes around marking, hopes to vote out wolves and instantly win with marked towns.

I discounted this during my analysis because it's an extremely unlikely play. However, in light of finding out there may be a Fledgling now, this changes it slightly:

Most definitely. Best case scenario for the Vampires (Vampires/Town/Wolves)(%chance at random):
D5: we lynch a Wolf (2v5v2)(30%)
N5: they doublefeed off a Wolf, the Wolves hit a VT and can't block the doublefeed, assuming they don't block and bite the same target (2v4v1)(13.6%)
D6: we lynch the last Wolf (2v4)(14.2%)
N6: they doublefeed off a VT (2v3)(100%)
D7: we lynch a VT (2v2)(60%); the Vampires win at this point

Total odds of this are 1 in 287.

For Marking to be optimal, the best scenario for the Vampires right now is that they Marked a VT last night that they could have Turned under Dupti's cover, making today's Elder/Wolf/Mark/VT 1v3v2v4.
D5: Lynch a wolf (1v2v2v4)(30%)
N5: Wolves miss the Smell (3/8) or fail the Guard (2/9), Elder Marks an unguarded VT, Wolves NK an unmarked VT (1v2v3v2)(4.4%)
D6: Lynch a wolf (1v1v3v2)(25%)
N6: Mark a VT, Wolves NK the last unmarked VT (1v1v4v0)(14.2%)
D7: Lynch a Wolf (16%), Elder wins as all VTs are Marked.
Total odds of this are 1 in 13,337.

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inb4 lynch because maths happened

[Marack]

inb4 lynch because maths happened

Maths, must be scum!

[Firebert]

Maths, must be scum!

Numbers don't lie, man

Unless you can spot the deliberate and obvious manipulation

Note that I have a partial degree in mathematics

[Graeham]

The ideal pattern would be to alternate between a werewolf and a vampire lynch each day. We got rid of a werewolf yesterday, so today should be about ridding ourselves of a vampire. Then tomorrow, a werewolf.

It's more likely to force both scum teams to go after each other at night, too. Which is why I'm not terribly impressed with the obsessive concern of getting rid of the werewolves - who are, objectively, a lesser threat than the team who can literally change the alignment of human players.

[Firebert]

The ideal pattern would be to alternate between a werewolf and a vampire lynch each day. We got rid of a werewolf yesterday, so today should be about ridding ourselves of a vampire. Then tomorrow, a werewolf.

I agree only because that matches up with killing a Fledgling each time they get created out of a VT; this will prevent an additional NK per night.

Problem is we don't know if there are two Vampires right now.

[Marack]

The ideal pattern would be to alternate between a werewolf and a vampire lynch each day. We got rid of a werewolf yesterday, so today should be about ridding ourselves of a vampire. Then tomorrow, a werewolf.

It's more likely to force both scum teams to go after each other at night, too. Which is why I'm not terribly impressed with the obsessive concern of getting rid of the werewolves - who are, objectively, a lesser threat than the team who can literally change the alignment of human players.

If we lynch another wolf today... would put us at 2 wolves, likely 2 vamps... then they should be going after each other even more.

Ideally, as town, we would lynch the VE and hope that nobody was turned... then it would be a 5(town)v3(wolf) going into the final phase of the game.

And I feel you arent worried about removing the wolves, is because you are one.

[Firebert]

I think I'll be giving the game a it of a break, actually

(posted today at 0708 GMT)

He has since posted four times in PvM (GMT): 1655, 1711, 1813, 1837.

Unvote

Vote: Bwonsamdi the Dead

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If we lynch another wolf today... would put us at 2 wolves, likely 2 vamps... then they should be going after each other even more.

Ideally, as town, we would lynch the VE and hope that nobody was turned... then it would be a 5(town)v3(wolf) going into the final phase of the game.

And I feel you arent worried about removing the wolves, is because you are one.

You can't stop the Wolves NKing until they are all dead; you can stop the Vampires NKing by limiting them to a Fledgling.

[Graeham]

If we lynch another wolf today... would put us at 2 wolves, likely 2 vamps... then they should be going after each other even more.

Ideally, as town, we would lynch the VE and hope that nobody was turned... then it would be a 5(town)v3(wolf) going into the final phase of the game.

And I feel you arent worried about removing the wolves, is because you are one.

I'm concerned with equal management of both scum teams. That does not mean I am a werewolf. I'd urge you to look at the fact that one team can replenish their numbers and the other cannot.

[LemonDemonGirl]

I'm concerned with equal management of both scum teams. That does not mean I am a werewolf. I'd urge you to look at the fact that one team can replenish their numbers and the other cannot.

True, there can't be more than two wolves at once

[Firebert]

True, there can't be more than two wolves at once

Three Wolves.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

He has since posted four times in PvM (GMT): 1655, 1711, 1813, 1837.
Vote: Bwonsamdi the Dead

Keep in mind that just because a player is posting in other threads doesn't mean that they are trying to lurk on purpose.

If you're at work, it's easy to quickly alt tab to MMO-C, refresh, and then respond to a comment, and then alt tab back to your work. It's especially easy for a casual thread like Players vs Mods where all you have to do is type a number if you want. Whereas commenting on mafia requires time. You have to get caught up, you have to flip back pages to understand what people are talking about, and then you have to spend time formulating your comment. You can't really just alt tab, post, and run in 30 seconds or less.


But Firebert is touching on a point. There isn't really much happening this game day. I think everyone voted yesterday and no one has really moved their votes since then. This lends some credence to the idea that one of the current trains is on a scum, and scum are waiting for either the day to end, or for people to move their votes off of their scumbuddy before the day ends so they can all pile on and mislynch.

2 - Graeham ( Catta #1133 , Crackleslap #1235 )

2 - Bwonsamdi ( Marack #1163 , Graeham #1225 )

2 - Catta ( Firebert #1111, Val #1194 )

1 - Firebert ( Lora #1189 )

So I think that there is scum in Graeham, Bwonsamdi, Catta, and Firebert.

In terms of who I trust of those four: Firebert > Graeham >>> Catta = Bwonsamdi.

I'm amenable to switching to Bwonsamdi or staying on Catta.

[Marack]

True, there can't be more than two wolves at once

we currently have 3 wolves and started with 4... are we even paying attention?

[Firebert]

Keep in mind that just because a player is posting in other threads doesn't mean that they are trying to lurk on purpose.

I've asked them to devote some time to the thread explaining his actions; instead they balled up and said that they'd give this thread a break. When challenged about why they are giving this thread a break and not PvM, they claimed that they'd also give that thread a break.

They are back on PvM but not here, so it's either lies or an indifference to the game. We can't have that as Town right now.

I'm amenable to switching to Bwonsamdi or staying on Catta.

Votes are now Bwonsamdi 3, Graeham 2, Catta and myself 1.

[Marack]

3 - Bwonsamdi ( Marack #1163 , Graeham #1225 , Firebert #1252)

2 - Graeham ( Catta #1133 , Cracksleap #1235 )

1 - Catta ( Val #1225 )

1 - Firebert ( Lora #1189 )

interesting that Val doesnt even take notice to the vote he quotes and vote count dont match

[Val the Moofia Boss]

interesting that Val doesnt even take notice to the vote he quotes and vote count dont match

Pardon my ignorance. I will be going to bed shortly.