Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Kathranis]

Apparently Trump's play is to tie everything up in the courts until its too late. Trump first move is to make a case to state legislatures that the ballots are too corrupt to trust. The Constitution says the states determine the electors. 33 states have a law that the electors must be awarded by popular vote winner, unfortunately if the winner is DISPUTED due to possible fraud (and the state legislatures would have to decide they are disputed), then they can do something else. So Trump needs to wait for them to finish counting to TRAP them, then he would argue in the courts all the way to SCOTUS to make his case, and then turn to the state legislatures and say the ballots cannot be trusted but what CAN be trusted is that the people elected the state legislatures fairly to make a call here. 8 of 9 state legislatures in swing states are republican, so they would ignore the ballot count and just send the GOP electors to vote for Trump. Then the democrats would sue to stop it. While its tied up in the courts, Trump just has to run out the clock.

Once we reach the day the electors actually vote and no-one has 270 electors due to all the litigation, then we move to the next step in the Constitution where the House votes for President and the Senate votes for vice. Both will elect Trump and Pence and its over.

Interestingly, a BIG issue here could be how Biden openly said he had the biggest voter fraud organization ever. Even if Biden misspoke, that slip of the tongue could be enough for state legislators to throw out the ballot results.

I think the issue at hand is that we then have to see if the Republican party actually wants to hitch their wagon to Trump. Nearly all of the Republican leadership right now is keeping their lips shut from what I've seen so far, and at least some have expressed tacit support for Biden.

I mean, barring some crazy shit like Trump trying to extend term limits to run for a third term and Republicans actually being on board, and like, just transitioning the country into a full blown fascist police state because Trump is already on the verge of losing this and I doubt another four years of this would help him, I don't know that the Republicans have much to gain from backing him just for another four years of controlling the presidency.

They need to start transitioning to being a post-Trump party even if Trump wins. Who is going to run in 2024 out of the current batch of prominent Republicans? Most of them couldn't beat him in the 2016 primaries. Frankly it might be time for them to start distancing themselves from him and building up their own base. I don't think these career politicians have the capacity to imitate his particular quirks.

But we'll see.

[Thekri]

Nate Silver can shut the fuck up...

I don't really get the animosity toward Nate Silver. He isn't a pollster, he is an analyst, and when all the polls show Biden ahead by large margins, it isn't unreasonable to assume Biden is the favorite to win. Silver's predictions haven't really been wildly off, they simply fell on the edge of the range, and considering Silver was dealing with clearly garbage data, that isn't really a bad look for an analyst.

Now yes, I generally hate Analysts of all fields, because I feel they are useless drains on society, but I don't see any real reason to single him out as particularly worthless.

[Paranoid Android]

I grew up in Vegas. I know all about the transplants from all over the country.

Let's hope those former Oakland Raider transplants put us over the top. No, I am not a Raiders fan.

[Edge-]

No offense... But Nate Silver really need to eff off. I'm not saying polling, projecting etc aren't important and useful, it just that Nate Silver is slowly becoming someone who is professionally wrong.

Yes, I think Nevada will go Biden if the trends hold, still Nate Silver needs to go away, this has been waaaaay to close for comfort and him and his projections have a lot to do with the overconfidence people went into this, and that might have had negative effects on how the campaigning was being done.

Disagree. Pollsters have been off in 2016/2020, but were remarkably accurate in 2018. I think that speaks to something that happens with the presidential election polling that doesn't happen in the midterms. Like, people lying to pollsters.

And I think he'd also be the first to tell you despite rosy predictions that it's far from an exact science and safe bet, and the election is volatile.

I'd never argue that he's some beacon of truth or anything, but the analysis there is still largely solid.

Was everyone like, lying over the months as they said they weren't believing these optimistic polls that they're now suddenly disappointed by?

[DarkTZeratul]

Yes they can.

On what grounds? Because "I feel like it" isn't a valid one. The legislature has literally no path to do this. None. Whatsoever. And the Supreme Court, even packed as it is, has consistently ruled on not changing election law during an election.

[Die]

Again Trump does not have to make a legal case. He just has to make a plea to state legislatures to send the GOP electors. And a legal dispute where the democrats argue its illegal to do so while the GOP argues it is legal to do so is a WIN for Trump because that legal battle just has to go past the date of December 14th. If it is still a legal battle on December 14th, no vote takes place and the House votes for Trump and the Senate for Pence.

So even IF a court eventually rules sending the GOP electors is illegal, it would be too late. Trump already won.

[Themius]

Oh god I swear... this isn't over and i keep seeing way too much "what we need is more of that white working class, the dmeocrats have become elites we need to work on messaging" it's all fucking bullshit... 9/10 black women 8/10 black men 2/3 latinos... that's who is winning this election for Biden. if he wins Georgia it wasn't the fucking white working-class waving confederate fucking flags.

[Eviscero]

Biden also wins with GA. Trump literally needs all 3 remaining states to win it.

If Biden wins NV and GA, he wins it all. Maybe this is what you're saying.

[Die]

On what grounds? Because "I feel like it" isn't a valid one. The legislature has literally no path to do this. None. Whatsoever. And the Supreme Court, even packed as it is, has consistently ruled on not changing election law during an election.

There is no changing of election law. Its about a read of election law. For 33 states, the law is the legislature must choose the popular vote winner. But the word "winner" is not clearly defined. The winner is DISPUTED. So by that logic they can sidestep the law and send whichever set of electors they like.

[DarkTZeratul]

There is no changing of election law. Its about a read of election law. For 33 states, the law is the legislature must choose the popular vote winner. But the word "winner" is not clearly defined. The winner is DISPUTED. So by that logic they can sidestep the law and send whichever set of electors they like.

But no law allows them to say "someone claims the winner is disputed, so I get to choose the winner."

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/s...860252161?s=19



So uh...the Trump campaign is sicking their base on a Fox employee who works the election desk.

Very fine people indeed. I genuinely hope he's alright and doesn't end up receiving harassment, death threats, or worse.

[Die]

But no law allows them to say "someone claims the winner is disputed, so I get to choose the winner."

No law says they can't either. See? The word "winner" was not clearly defined.

[Redwyrm]

Disagree. Pollsters have been off in 2016/2020, but were remarkably accurate in 2018. I think that speaks to something that happens with the presidential election polling that doesn't happen in the midterms. Like, people lying to pollsters.

And I think he'd also be the first to tell you despite rosy predictions that it's far from an exact science and safe bet, and the election is volatile.

I'd never argue that he's some beacon of truth or anything, but the analysis there is still largely solid.

Was everyone like, lying over the months as they said they weren't believing these optimistic polls that they're now suddenly disappointed by?

Unfortunately election analysts are a lot like weathermen. I can say that there is a chance of rain tomorrow. If it rains, then I am correct. If it doesn't rain, then I am still correct because I said there was a chance.

[Breccia]

the Trump campaign is sicking their base on a Fox employee who works the election desk.

There is no loyalty except to Trump. It's a cult.

[Thekri]

Again Trump does not have to make a legal case. He just has to make a plea to state legislatures to send the GOP electors. And a legal dispute where the democrats argue its illegal to do so while the GOP argues it is legal to do so is a WIN for Trump because that legal battle just has to go past the date of December 14th. If it is still a legal battle on December 14th, no vote takes place and the House votes for Trump and the Senate for Pence.

So even IF a court eventually rules sending the GOP electors is illegal, it would be too late. Trump already won.

That is literally insane. That is not how absolutely anything works.

For one, the Senate has zero influence on confirming the Presidential election. It is solely the house that verifies the vote.

Declaring democracy null and void is not a winning strategy. And that is what you are claiming could happen, but it can't. If Trump tries to remain in office after he loses the election, he will be carried from that office. End of fucking story.

[Mihalik]

5. The Supreme Court will be interesting. What if there is a vacancy in February? Does McConnell sit on it until 2020?

Yes and he will do so with a grin. Nothing will get through the Senate for Biden to sign.

No judges.
No cabinet appointees.
No budgets.
No stimulus.
No bail outs.
No job protections.
No funding for cities.
No funding for vaccinations.
No police reform.

Nothing.

The only way they can hope to do anything is to very aggressively campaign from now till the midterms with the aim to dislodge the GOP from the senate.

Whether that can happen or not 100% depends on who does a better job at convincing the public on who is to blame for the damage that has already been done and that will be done in the next 2 years.

And historically the GOP has always been much much better at that than the democrats.

Even if Biden takes the White House, anyone thinking that the fight is over, is fucking stupid.

Even if Trump is removed, he will be the shadow king maker/shot caller of the GOP for the foreseeable future.

[Machismo]

I don't really get the animosity toward Nate Silver. He isn't a pollster, he is an analyst, and when all the polls show Biden ahead by large margins, it isn't unreasonable to assume Biden is the favorite to win. Silver's predictions haven't really been wildly off, they simply fell on the edge of the range, and considering Silver was dealing with clearly garbage data, that isn't really a bad look for an analyst.

Now yes, I generally hate Analysts of all fields, because I feel they are useless drains on society, but I don't see any real reason to single him out as particularly worthless.

I agree with you.

This is tantamount for blaming the messenger, because people lied in polls.

[Edge-]

Unfortunately election analysts are a lot like weathermen. I can say that there is a chance of rain tomorrow. If it rains, then I am correct. If it doesn't rain, then I am still correct because I said there was a chance.

Yeah...that's how probabilities and predicting the future works. When you have massive variables, volatility, conditions that can change at a seconds notice and have major impacts etc. it ain't ever gonna be an exact science.

On the weather dude, there was a great analogy I heard from an astronaut a while back. "It's easier to figure out how to send something into orbit than it is to predict the weather with precision a few days into the future." - or something to that effect.

And in that, there's less chance of people trying to spoil a poll or related issues from poor phrasing/understanding of questions that can lead to inaccurate answers.

[Die]

Where we are at right now is this:

Trump is keeping his mouth shut about his plans. He needs the ballot count to end first. Then he will start to make the case for state legislatures to send the GOP set of electors. This is like a huge trap by Trump.

[josykay]

On what grounds? Because "I feel like it" isn't a valid one. The legislature has literally no path to do this. None. Whatsoever. And the Supreme Court, even packed as it is, has consistently ruled on not changing election law during an election.

That would literally be an ex post facto decission, which is explicitly illegal. If SCOTUS does that, they can also just burn the constitution.