1. #27161
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Disagree. Pollsters have been off in 2016/2020, but were remarkably accurate in 2018. I think that speaks to something that happens with the presidential election polling that doesn't happen in the midterms. Like, people lying to pollsters.

    And I think he'd also be the first to tell you despite rosy predictions that it's far from an exact science and safe bet, and the election is volatile.

    I'd never argue that he's some beacon of truth or anything, but the analysis there is still largely solid.

    Was everyone like, lying over the months as they said they weren't believing these optimistic polls that they're now suddenly disappointed by?
    When all is said and done, polls are only going to be off by like 3-4%. There's been a very late blue shift with MIV returns.

    The only thing polls really missed were FL.

  2. #27162
    Quote Originally Posted by Die View Post
    Where we are at right now is this:

    Trump is keeping his mouth shut about his plans. He needs the ballot count to end first. Then he will start to make the case for state legislatures to send the GOP set of electors. This is like a huge trap by Trump.
    You Trumpsters are adorable with your ridiculous conspiracy theories.

    "Trump is losing on purpose, this is 4D chess!!!"

    You really need to get off Redding and the Chans.

  3. #27163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/s...860252161?s=19


    So uh...the Trump campaign is sicking their base on a Fox employee who works the election desk.

    Very fine people indeed. I genuinely hope he's alright and doesn't end up receiving harassment, death threats, or worse.
    Fox news being on the right side of journalistic integrity throughout the election might be the biggest surprise of all of it.

  4. #27164
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Die View Post
    PA and AZ have GOP state legislatures. Both of them could just decide to send the GOP set of electors and make Trump president if they decide the ballots are too corrupt.
    No, they cannot. Stop spreading misinformation.

  5. #27165
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/s...860252161?s=19



    So uh...the Trump campaign is sicking their base on a Fox employee who works the election desk.

    Very fine people indeed. I genuinely hope he's alright and doesn't end up receiving harassment, death threats, or worse.
    Irony of this elections, Fox News became the target of the Party of Trump hatred.

  6. #27166
    Quote Originally Posted by Eviscero View Post
    If Biden wins NV and GA, he wins it all. Maybe this is what you're saying.
    Yes that's what I mean. If biden wins NV, essentially game over unless trump wins every single remaining state, which looks unlikely at this point.

  7. #27167
    Legendary! Thekri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redwyrm View Post
    Unfortunately election analysts are a lot like weathermen. I can say that there is a chance of rain tomorrow. If it rains, then I am correct. If it doesn't rain, then I am still correct because I said there was a chance.
    It is a bit worse then that. It is like if a weatherman gets shown radar maps of a giant storm coming, and all the evidence points to rain, and he says there will be a 90% chance of rain. Only all the maps and evidence was wrong, because the radar operator didn't know how to operate his radar correctly, and all the barometer readings were taken from inside a building. The weatherman didn't know all the readings were wrong, he just used all that information and made a call that is wrong.

    Yes, you can throw some shade at the weatherman for trusting the data, but ultimately it was the people that collected the data that was wrong. We here on this forum were feeling good about all sorts of races based on the same polling. I remember being skeptical on Cal Cunningham's chances, and got jumped on for it. We were wrong right along Nate Silver, because the polls were shit again. It is like the only thing @Ghostpanther was ever right about.

  8. #27168
    Old God Kathranis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thekri View Post
    Declaring democracy null and void is not a winning strategy. And that is what you are claiming could happen, but it can't. If Trump tries to remain in office after he loses the election, he will be carried from that office. End of fucking story.
    Yes, exactly. Maybe I'm being too optimistic about the state of American democracy, but I don't think there are enough republicans willing to be on board with that strategy, even assuming it's actually a viable one, just for the sake of four more years under Trump. Trump has benefited them, no doubt, but they don't need him in office. Arguably with the house and senate shaping up this way, they could arguably benefit more long term from undermining a Biden presidency than four more years of Trump.
    Last edited by Kathranis; 2020-11-05 at 06:06 PM.

  9. #27169

  10. #27170
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    No, they cannot. Stop spreading misinformation.
    You are missing the point. It does NOT matter if it is legal or not for the state legislatures to send the GOP electors in PA and AZ even if Biden wins the vote count. The legality of that move has absolutely nothing to do with any of this. What matters is just sending them anyway. If the courts cannot figure it out before December 14th, then no-one reaches 270 votes and the issue is MOOT. Trump and Pence are simply re-elected per the Constitution.

  11. #27171
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Yes and he will do so with a grin. Nothing will get through the Senate for Biden to sign.

    No judges.
    No cabinet appointees.
    No budgets.
    No stimulus.
    No bail outs.
    No job protections.
    No funding for cities.
    No funding for vaccinations.
    No police reform.

    Nothing.

    The only way they can hope to do anything is to very aggressively campaign from now till the midterms with the aim to dislodge the GOP from the senate.

    Whether that can happen or not 100% depends on who does a better job at convincing the public on who is to blame for the damage that has already been done and that will be done in the next 2 years.

    And historically the GOP has always been much much better at that than the democrats.

    Even if Biden takes the White House, anyone thinking that the fight is over, is fucking stupid.

    Even if Trump is removed, he will be the shadow king maker/shot caller of the GOP for the foreseeable future.
    Both Georgia Senate seats are headed to a runoff in January it looks like. Mayyyybe Republican turnout will be lower if Trump isn't on the ticket? It's hard to say if we can pull off a win without a libertarian syphon.

  12. #27172
    Quote Originally Posted by xChurch View Post
    So if the justice department sends in federal agents, and the local law enforcement is mainly on Trump's side, who is there, realistically, who could stop them from just forcefully shutting down vote counting? Or would it even matter this late in the game? I mean if Trump was ever going to make a push to become a dictator, this is the time to do it. Someone tell me I'm just being paranoid.
    That entire scenario is supposedly the reason why the second amendment exists.

  13. #27173
    Quote Originally Posted by Die View Post
    Where we are at right now is this:

    Trump is keeping his mouth shut about his plans. He needs the ballot count to end first. Then he will start to make the case for state legislatures to send the GOP set of electors. This is like a huge trap by Trump.
    It'll depend on which states. If he cna't wins NV and AZ he can't rely on that plan due to SCOTUS ruling.

  14. #27174
    Legendary! Thekri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thilicen View Post
    Fox news being on the right side of journalistic integrity throughout the election might be the biggest surprise of all of it.
    Not really. Fox News is actually pretty decent. It is Fox "News", all their named shows and talking heads that are garbage. There is still an actual news team somewhere in the cubicles behind all the empty headed blonde ladies.

  15. #27175
    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post
    I bet you one internet point Biden takes Georgia.
    I'll even throw in one imaginary oatmeal cookie for you if he does.

    The raisin one. Fuck chocolate chip. Raisins are superior.

  16. #27176
    Quote Originally Posted by Redwyrm View Post
    Unfortunately election analysts are a lot like weathermen. I can say that there is a chance of rain tomorrow. If it rains, then I am correct. If it doesn't rain, then I am still correct because I said there was a chance.
    The problem is they focussed tremendously on white working class votes... and assumed Biden would get a much larger share than he actually did...

  17. #27177
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    The raisin one. Fuck chocolate chip. Raisins are superior.
    My dude right here with the important facts in the election thrad.

  18. #27178
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    I'll even throw in one imaginary oatmeal cookie for you if he does.

    The raisin one. Fuck chocolate chip. Raisins are superior.
    You take that back! Chocolate chip is the superior brand. Chocolate Chip 2024!

  19. #27179
    PA dems expected results -
    https://twitter.com/StreetForPA/stat...09362731962369
    As Pennsylvania counties continue to count mail-in ballots, we have been monitoring the returns. Based on the reported remaining ballots, we maintain the belief that Joe Biden is on track to win Pennsylvania and the presidency.

  20. #27180
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amunrasonther View Post
    Is Georgia back in play?!
    If there are about 50k votes left, Biden needs about 2/3 of them by my count.

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