Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Paranoid Android]

90% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2016 while 93% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2020 so Biden and the DNC’s strategy of pandering to Republicans and taking progressive, independent, and youth voters for granted was an EPIC FAILURE.

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

[Breccia]

I see, thanks for explaining!

I mean it is pretty damn good odds for a sports analyst. What rate is good totally depends on the context. In this context 90% doesn't seem great.

The example I tell my students is this:

Imagine you're an emergency room surgeon. Ninety percent of your patients survive. You're a hero. They write medical articles about you. Medical schools try to poach you to teach their students.

Now imagine you're a dentist and 90% of your patients survive. They still write articles about you, but they're not as flattering.

Context is king. To a researcher with access to hundreds of data points, 90% is what to expect. Otherwise you'd need a margin of error that's so stupid high it's meaningless.

[JustinJgh]

I will bet you $100 that no matter how hard progressives yell at Biden to support progressive policies he will not. Moderate Democrats are already yelling at party leaders that they need to push the left out of the party because progressives somehow caused moderate Democrats to lose their elections, not moderate Democrats themselves, even though progressive Democrats won their elections.

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/stat...39295847968768


Here's a long list of all the moderate Democrats who lost who didn't support Medicare for All or defunding the police:

https://twitter.com/aidan_smx/status...65958832889856

All I'm asking for is for Democrats to just grow a crumb of self awareness and responsibility and blame themselves when they lose their own elections, not progressives. If Joe Biden can be called a socialist and it sticks, literally any Democrat can be called a socialist and have it stick, it literally doesn't matter. Trying to kick the left out of the party because you think they're making you lose elections will not fix this.

You don't vote you don't have a voice. I'm far left.

If all those on my side voted a straight blue ticket we would have gotten more people elected.

Instead now the belief is the far left doesn't matter because they don't help get people elected.

Say whatever you want about this election.

Conservatives are kicking our asses long term. I'll bet anything.

My best bet is to finish schooling and work my ass off so I'm not reliant on a strong government.

[kaelleria]

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

Trump is the ultimate R turnout machine. This will probably hurt R's in 2022.

That being said, we really need to figure out a better form of messaging things rather than coming off as combative before 2022.

[Kathranis]

My favourite part of all this? Despite all the flailing by the supposed 'most powerful man in the world', the more powerful institution of the democratic process just keeps on plowing on, mostly calmly and orderly.

I'm seeing more republicans and democrats coming out and commenting now, it looks like they're becoming more sure of a Biden win on both sides. Republicans going "pro-Democracy count all the ballots" and talking about working with Biden.

[Flower Milk]

You are generalizing and asserting causation...

I'm not, I literally linked to an article showing exactly that. Democrats in Florida are literally yelling at the party for not having more candidates support the minimum wage ballot initiative because it was so popular.

https://twitter.com/AliMortell/statu...13337866850306

If you're a progressive, you already know that Democrats got crushed in Florida while minimum wage won comfortably.

What you might not know is that the DFL intentionally distanced itself from the initiative because... it was too far left.

How'd that work out?

[Belize]

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

My question however is how many GOP left the party to become Independents.

It's easy to win you base when all the moderates left and only the absolute lunatics are left.

[cubby]

The only 2 Democratic candidates that won in Florida were the only 2 Democratic candidates that supported the proposition to raise the minimum wage to $15, the rest rejected it at the behest of corporate donors and lost.

https://twitter.com/trejn11/status/1324428812256485377

Say it with me:

Twitter. Is. NOT. A. Legitimate. Citation.

You make these bullshit claims because of FEELS and then post some twitter crap you believe backs up your claims. IT DOES NOT.

[Kathranis]

Trump is the ultimate R turnout machine. This will probably hurt R's in 2022.

That being said, we really need to figure out a better form of messaging things rather than coming off as combative before 2022.

The fact that he's being outperformed by down ballot republicans doesn't bode well for him though, I think.

[Sorshen]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN27L31H

The U.S. Office of Special Counsel has opened an investigation into allegations that the Trump campaign’s use of the White House as an Election Day command center violated federal law

Bleh, nothing will come of it but they don't know the fucking law or they don't care.

[cubby]

My favourite part of all this? Despite all the flailing by the supposed 'most powerful man in the world', the more powerful institution of the democratic process just keeps on plowing on, mostly calmly and orderly.

That is very, very good.

Did you see the Presser from the PA Sec State? Should be required viewing in all civics classes in the United States (and, of course, civics should be required as well - but that's another conversation).

[beanman12345]

GA is going to flip. The county that cut the lead down to 3k has at least 12k ballots left. There are 20k remaining.

There may be even more. one county is having an issue and are rerunning numbers to make sure they haven't already been sent out. but even without it GA is gonna flip.

[Kaleredar]

There may be even more. one county is having an issue and are rerunning numbers to make sure they haven't already been sent out. but even without it GA is gonna flip.

And unless AZ turns turtle suddenly, I do believe that hands Biden the victory even with Nevada being cagey about finishing their count, correct?

[s_bushido]

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

...weren't people dropping their association with the Republican party in droves? Those numbers seem pretty meaningless if there were fewer people actually registered as Republican.

[Blur4stuff]

For any dems feeling nervous/down about the senate, keep in mind that for 2022 not only will dems have a favorable map, but there won't be as much voter suppression fuckery like with the USPS.

[Ripster42]

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

They weren't appealing to republicans. They were appealing to NPVs. This talking point is the tail wagging the dog. If youths and progressives actually voted regularly for dems (instead of voting 3rd party or not showing up at all), they'd start catering more closely to issues that appeal to youths and progressives. Look at bernie bros. Look at youth turn out throughout history.

[Flower Milk]

Say it with me:

Twitter. Is. NOT. A. Legitimate. Citation.

You make these bullshit claims because of FEELS and then post some twitter crap you believe backs up your claims. IT DOES NOT.

I'm sorry that you're too lazy to open it and see that it links to a news article, let me spoonfeed it to you:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/poli...h64-story.html

“The Democratic Party continues to have no values,” Eskamani said. “And the fact that the $15 minimum wage amendment passed while so many of our candidates, including the self-anointed ‘top Democrats,’ don’t even stand in strong solidarity [of the initiative] … because they’re influenced by corporate donors, is another example of just why we keep losing.”

[Zaydin]

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/s...678156288?s=19

So much to appealing to Republicans. Trump actually increased his Republican hold. To be fair likely new registered Republicans. I guess? Maybe these new registered are not counted.

It may well have been Democrats switching parties to the GOP. I mean, look at West Virginia; it's solidly red now but registered Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans there. It can take some people a long time to leave their 'ancestral' party.

[Kaleredar]

For any dems feeling nervous/down about the senate, keep in mind that for 2022 not only will dems have a favorable map, but there won't be as much voter suppression fuckery like with the USPS.

If Biden wins this thing, I will be friggin' elated, regardless of the state of the senate. We can worry about the senate once Biden takes office.

[beanman12345]

And unless AZ turns turtle suddenly, I do believe that hands Biden the victory even with Nevada being cagey about finishing their count, correct?

GA alone wouldn't get him the win. it'd get him to 269 He'd still need one of the other called for him. if you include AZ than yes it's a win.