Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

Economist! What do they know.

Well it kind of helped the federal govt took on 3-4 trillion dollars in debt/deficit instead to help prop up what was left of the economy.

[Rasulis]

Well it kind of helped the federal govt took on 3-4 trillion dollars in debt/deficit instead to help prop up what was left of the economy.

Assuming the market do not crash before 12/31, the capital gain tax is expected to bump CA 2020 fiscal year revenue to 40B surplus. They think the corporate tax withholding is also too low because companies were underestimating their profit. So that could go up also.

[Breccia]

For more comments, we go now live to Alan Greenspan.

What the fuck?

"Har har. What did he really say?"

"I've never seen a particular situation during my professional experience anything like this

"...oh."

Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that the economy will fully recover only when the Covid-19 pandemic is under control. Even then, we likely won't go back to the economy we knew before the pandemic hit.

Millions of Americans still need benefits to make ends meet because they have lost their jobs due to the crisis and are unable to find new ones.

The government spent trillions through the CARES Act in the spring, but Washington hasn't been able to agree on any additional stimulus since then. This must change, Greenspan and many economists agree.

"I think Pelosi has a particular set of ideas to confront the problems right now in front [that] seem quite credible to me," the former central banker said. "All they have to do is implement them."

As long as there is general agreement that something needs to get done, passing a new stimulus package should be easy, Greenspan said. But in a situation this precarious, one should always ask what might go wrong.

"I'm not convinced at all that we have enough information to know how to deal with this type of problem," Greenspan said, adding that there could be unintended consequences for society.

[Rasulis]

Some background on the California budget surplus. The 26 billion surplus estimate is based on cash-on-hand. California fiscal year starts and ends in July. As of October, CA has a 11 billion cash surplus on hand. Personal income tax withholding for October was more than 30% above projection and corporate tax was more than double. Sales tax was up more than 30% in October. Far outpacing the nation’s measly 0.3% and Texas’ -6.5%. The surplus is even more surprising when you consider that California was paying unemployment to as many as 3M people at one time (down to 1.6M in September). Also, unlike Texas and Florida, FEMA has not reimbursed California for it’s Covid-19 expenses all the way from the start of the Pandemic. It appears that despite contributing the most to the US economy and Trump’s campaign, California is the red-headed stepchild of this administration.

Taking about unemployment, 742,000 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the week ended November 14. That's an increase of 31,000 from the week before.

Also, 44 oil & gas companies filed Chapter 11 in the third quarter of 2020 (17 in the exploration and production sector, and 27 in the oil field services sector).

[Breccia]

Also, 44 oil & gas companies filed Chapter 11 in the third quarter of 2020 (17 in the exploration and production sector, and 27 in the oil field services sector).

Are you saying that U.S. oil producers on pace for most bankruptcies since last oil downturn?

[Rasulis]

Are you saying that U.S. oil producers on pace for most bankruptcies since last oil downturn?

Probably worse. Most oil & gas companies that went bankrupt in 2014 - 2017 were able to restructure. This time, many won't be able to restructure due to their debt level and lack of investors. Even the price of fracking acreage has gone down by 67%.

Approximately 12 million Americans will lose their jobless benefits the day after Christmas.

- - - Updated - - -

More bad news.

Domestic airline passengers down 64% from the same time last year.

International airline passengers down 74% from the same time last year.

Business travel passengers down well over 90% from the same time last year.

[Breccia]

More bad news.

The fact that so many airlines still exist at all is good news. I remember lots about 9/11 but included is the aftermath for the airline industry. Being 100% grounded for four days (or whatever it was) nealry shattered them. They've been smart and that's why those that are still flying, are still flying.

But everyone has a breaking point.

[Rasulis]

The fact that so many airlines still exist at all is good news. I remember lots about 9/11 but included is the aftermath for the airline industry. Being 100% grounded for four days (or whatever it was) nealry shattered them. They've been smart and that's why those that are still flying, are still flying.

But everyone has a breaking point.

To that I say "Tesla market cap now exceeds the combined EU auto industry."

Go go USA! Go go Renee'!

Renee' is my wife and she invested part of our 2020 vacation funds into Tesla stocks earlier this year.

[Zan15]

To that I say "Tesla market cap now exceeds the combined EU auto industry."

Go go USA! Go go Renee'!

Renee' is my wife and she invested part of our 2020 vacation funds into Tesla stocks earlier this year.

i just don't get it....fucking crazy.

They would have to have a growth rate in the thousands....for decades....

[Breccia]

JPMorgan says that the GDP will contract again in Q1 2020, due to COVID raging out of control.

"What about this quarter?"

I don't see many new reports, but, even over the last month I have not seen any Q4 predictions higher than Q1's loss. 2020 will see a loss.

At some point, you'd think Trump would want to flee.

[Deja Thoris]

JPMorgan says that the GDP will contract again in Q1 2020, due to COVID raging out of control.

"What about this quarter?"

I don't see many new reports, but, even over the last month I have not seen any Q4 predictions higher than Q1's loss. 2020 will see a loss.

At some point, you'd think Trump would want to flee.

Guessing you meant Q1 2021?

And yea, next 4 months feel like they are going to be brutal. The COVID numbers are staggering and are going to get worse until a vaccine starts rolling out, and even if its approved tomorrow theres a LOT of logistics work to do to actually get them to people.

[Breccia]

Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

This was 100% avoidable.

[Zan15]

Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

This was 100% avoidable.

i think you got your links mixed up.


Only reason Dow is not crashing is the rotation into those stocks vs just about everyone putting money on tech.

- - - Updated - - -

Guessing you meant Q1 2021?

And yea, next 4 months feel like they are going to be brutal. The COVID numbers are staggering and are going to get worse until a vaccine starts rolling out, and even if its approved tomorrow theres a LOT of logistics work to do to actually get them to people.

and we've seen how this administration handles logistics.

[Zaydin]

Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

This was 100% avoidable.

And you can guarantee the GOP will try and blame this all on Biden once he is sworn in.

[Rasulis]

Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

This was 100% avoidable.

It is as bad as it can get.

778,000 American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

20.4 million Americans are on some form of unemployment assistance.

12 million unemployed US citizens will lose their unemployment benefit the day after Christmas.

7 million people will be facing eviction on January 1, 2021.

Yet, for every Chapter 11 filing, two new businesses were formed.




Traveling nurses make up $8,000 per week plus cost of living.

Demand for garlic is crushing it. Christopher Ranch of Gilroy, the last large garlic farm and processing company in the US, garlic sales went up by 70%. BTW, buy California garlic. Not Chinese garlic. Because of the soil and abundant sunlight, California garlic has much higher sugar content than Chinese garlic.

Investments in U.S. based start-ups rose 30% in the third quarter to $36.5 billion, driven by a record number of mega rounds of at least $100 million.

Start-up spending is now at an all-time high, roughly 5% higher than it was before the pandemic. Start-up employees are spending far less on Seamless orders and Uber trips as restaurant and rideshare transactions plunged 60% and 40% from pre-pandemic levels. Travel and events-related spending is only 25% of what it was before. But growth in online marketing and recurring software costs like Amazon Web Services and work-from-home stipends has made up for those declines.

2020 has been a record breaking year for new IPOs. It is not slowing down yet. DoorDash, Airbnb, Affirm, Roblox and Wish unveiled their prospectuses in the past eight days, with plans to go public before year-end. All five are California companies.

M&A is also strong. Salesforce is in talk to buy Slack (17 billion market cap).

E-commerce started around 2000 and grew at a pace of around 1 percent per year. In 2020, it grew from 18% to 28% of the US retail market. Basically it experienced a decade worth of growth in a single year.

- - - Updated - - -

Back to my regularly schedule oil & gas kvetch.

According to a new analysis by BailoutWatch, Public Citizen, and Friends of the Earth, the fossil fuel industry received between US$10.4 billion and US$15.2 billion in direct economic relief, with more than 26,000 coal, oil, and gas companies benefiting directly. In addition, indirect benefits in the form of bond funds bought by the Fed and billions of newly issued company bonds pushed government aid to the industry past US$110 billion.

If only they had spent a fraction of it into the EV industry, battery technology and offshore windmill farms.

[Breccia]

Disney increases number of layoffs to thirty-two thousand.

[Zan15]

And you can guarantee the GOP will try and blame this all on Biden once he is sworn in.

It will be exactly like the Bush - Obama 2008-2009 shit all over again.

They will complain that Biden could not fix the crap that was left to him fast enough.

It will be a slow and steady recovery without huge risk and major flimsy gimmicks that only fix the problem in the short term but make the long term hell (trump tax cuts)

[Breccia]

As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.

[Zan15]

As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.

Problem with the markets are they are forward looking and people are betting on year 2 of the vaccine so we won't see much downside unless something seriously goes wrong with the vaccine rollout.

i put a lot of bets on the cyclical stocks like Citibank that basically print money each year. A lot of money is starting to be pumped into those stocks that have been money generators for decades but have not seen the recovery "yet".

We'll see if that last.

[Rasulis]

As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.

Trump is acting like a high school senior on his last semester. No interest in actually doing real work. Just marking time, partying and settling grudges. It is unbelievable that somebody like this can get elected to be the president of the United States.

On a side note, I think Tesla Powerwall is the best thing since white bread. We had 50 mph sustained wind with 90 mph gust last week. Due to wild fire risk, SDG&E turned off power in our area from Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. We did not even notice it. My first inkling was when I drove to work Thursday morning and all the traffic lights and billboards at Barona were off. Coming home, everything was dark. Except for our house.