Has Elon Musk revived interest in space? Are we on the cusp of a new space age?

[Hinastorm]

We'll absolutely have a permanent Moon base in our lifetime. Probably not this decade, what with all the politicking going on, but it'll be there. And if it isn't the US and EU, then China absolutely will. They've been going hard on spaceflight this millennium.

Mars is a whole different beast, agreed. The Moon is "only" three days of travel from Earth, so you can react relatively quick if needed for whatever reason. But the window to Mars is only open for a couple of weeks every 26 months, and then there's the travel time. And I don't even remember what the return window is like.

And exactly what good to society are we expecting from the 10's of billions of dollars that a "moon base" will cost?

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Ok, I'm glad we're on the same page regarding scale. Some people would consider "colonization" a much larger group.

I'm now curious why you think a Moon Base/Colonization won't happen in our lifetimes.

NASA just announced their 18 person Artemis team with plans to have them on the surface of the moon by 2024, and an active base camp shortly thereafter along with an orbiting "space station" (smaller than ISS) around the Moon.

And Artemis is the stepping stone to Mars, with humans landing and setting up a round trip base in the 2030's. And I don't think either of those plans include what SpaceX has in mind, which is landing something on Mars by 2026, and people in the 2030's.

I again heavily question the value from the 10's of billions of dollars all of this is going to cost.

[Ihavewaffles]

I can't understand why people don't see that Musk is like, the proto-villain of all dystopian science fiction. He's a robber baron railroad tycoon except for space.

Now, I'm sure he employs lots of great engineers and scientists who are doing some great things. And, like Vanderbilt, I'm sure universities and charitable organizations and awards will be named after him. But it should be clear that he is out for only one thing: to loot and pillage space.

That he's heading a company of incredibly talented people to do so is not a justification for doing so. The man wants to own Mars.

This is something the mod team and I disagree on greatly, because most of them seem to love the pretty rockets flying in space and doing flips 'n shit, and are sad when I mention I think any privately funded venture into space is doomed from the outset, especially with someone like Musk at the helm. But I can't help but see the same disturbing patterns that predicated the rise of a gilded class during the Industrial Revolution.

IDK, maybe the sufferance of a new class of robber barons is tolerable for the eventual goal? Like, yeah, cars and trains and planes were initially for the ultra-rich. But eventually I guess everyone got to use them and be subject to the whims of dumpster-diving corporations looking to bilk the middle class out of as much money as possible while shirking public safety and responsibility as much as they could without being held legally liable for it? So, yay? I guess I owe Henry Ford a debt of gratitude for driving around my car. Dude was still a piece of shit.

Spacex isn't truly private, its intertvined with nasa too much, its government outreach to corporate n lend their nasa scientists.
This isn't like silicon valley companies that started from scratch with a few nerds fresh out of college, n musk came n scooped them up. No, he went to nasa n the politicians.

As for owning mars etc I don't think with the costs for a single country its feasible, n other state would tolerate bs american claims.

Lastly, space is dead. They can strip mars n everything, there's no environment to pollute so there's no argument against industrializing space..

I'm not a fan of musk either, I don't trust his cars n claims.

[Duebuck]

That is not happening in our lifetimes. And one on Mars isen't happening in the next 3 lifetimes.

[cubby]

I again heavily question the value from the 10's of billions of dollars all of this is going to cost.

That's definitely a conversation I'd like to have with you. Most people suggest that the cost is worth the discovery, the milestone, and any research that comes from either getting there or arriving.

But I'm curious, why do you think we won't make the Moon in the next 10-20 years.

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That is not happening in our lifetimes. And one on Mars isen't happening in the next 3 lifetimes.

Um...what?

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A moon base in the next several decades?
Not likely.
Back in the mid-80s NASA was trying out ways for quick construction of a complex, but the costs were exorbitant, too much so. It'll take international cooperation just to make it. Then there's the cost of maintaining it.

How about in the next 10 years. NASA already picked it's team. And when the SLS fails they will just contract with SpaceX's Starship to get there. It's curious how a few people don't think a Moon Base will happen within their lifetimes. We already landed there, with 50 year old tech. SpaceX already has rockets that can land after takeoff with Earth gravity. Moon gravity will be child's place.

The moon has plenty of resources that can be used in situ to build a base - underground of course. It's not a matter of if anymore, merely when.

And let's not forget non-radioactive H3 - that shit is going to be worth a LOT.

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I suppose I would say that the scale of it would need to be at least similar to the ISS for me to consider it a colonization, although the word is a bit arbitrary.

I mostly mean a meaningful, land based, encampment of some kind.

That is not happening in our lifetimes. And one on Mars isen't happening in the next 3 lifetimes.

I suspect your interest in space may be clouding what you're expecting to happen in said timeframes.

You keep saying that, but offer no analysis as to why. Three different countries already have working plans to put a base on the Moon within the next 10 years. And that doesn't include SpaceX. Could you please explain your position in detail. I'm genuinely curious.

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We'll absolutely have a permanent Moon base in our lifetime. Probably not this decade, what with all the politicking going on, but it'll be there. And if it isn't the US and EU, then China absolutely will. They've been going hard on spaceflight this millennium.

Mars is a whole different beast, agreed. The Moon is "only" three days of travel from Earth, so you can react relatively quick if needed for whatever reason. But the window to Mars is only open for a couple of weeks every 26 months, and then there's the travel time. And I don't even remember what the return window is like.

Mars is definitely tricky. SpaceX is making their Starship run on [I can't fucking remember]. Which is found and processible on Mars. They going to send cargo containers with the equipment to process propellant for a return trip.

Mars is probably 2040ish or so. Delays are inevitable.

[Hinastorm]

That's definitely a conversation I'd like to have with you. Most people suggest that the cost is worth the discovery, the milestone, and any research that comes from either getting there or arriving.

But I'm curious, why do you think we won't make the Moon in the next 10-20 years.

I'll admit i'm not extremely knowledgeable about timetables of things, because I don't think the cost justifies the potential gains.

We, especially as a nation (america) but as a world as well, cannot afford moon bases right now. Frankly there was never a good time, except maybe in the "roaring" 50's, but obviously we weren't ready back then.

You know what discovery's and milestones i'm far more interested in? Figuring out how to fix education. How to fix homelessness and poverty. Figuring out how to reform capitalism.

The US spending 10's of billions on space endeavors right now is like a family, already heavily in debt, deciding to buy a rolls royce.

[cubby]

Show me the money.

SpaceX and their satellite internet will fund the Moon Base (if NASA fucks it up, which they will, because the SLS is a fucking unresusable joke). Moon Base will be the testing ground for Mars. Mars is what Musk wants to own. Money and motivation.

[Ihavewaffles]

That is not happening in our lifetimes. And one on Mars isen't happening in the next 3 lifetimes.

True, they have made their claims to appear relevant, for decades.

Making a rocket isn't new, the infrastructure however to colonize space is non-existant.
That's like a new piece of land would suddenly appear on earth n somebody would say he could get an industry, infrastructure n town built there in a few years n all he brings with him is 2-3 guys in his car...people don't grasp how much needs to be moved, how much traffic, how much space in rockets, how much preparation, how much ai, how much automation, resources, money, it's astronomical...

Driving/flying by is a different matter n people fall for bs propaganda from those who wish the public maintaining interest..

I'm not asking for the Nostromo to haul shit, but damn a lot more than people think..

[cubby]

I'll admit i'm not extremely knowledgeable about timetables of things, because I don't think the cost justifies the potential gains.

We, especially as a nation (america) but as a world as well, cannot afford moon bases right now. Frankly there was never a good time, except maybe in the "roaring" 50's, but obviously we weren't ready back then.

You know what discovery's and milestones i'm far more interested in? Figuring out how to fix education. How to fix homelessness and poverty. Figuring out how to reform capitalism.

The US spending 10's of billions on space endeavors right now is like a family, already heavily in debt, deciding to buy a rolls royce.

I agree those are more important things to fix. I'm of the mind that we can do both. Space travel funding isn't preventing Education and Social Services funding - those are all merely political considerations.

But a Moon Base is going to happen within 10 years. 15 at the outside.

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Spacex isn't truly private, its intertvined with nasa too much, its government outreach to corporate n lend their nasa scientists.
This isn't like silicon valley companies that started from scratch with a few nerds fresh out of college, n musk came n scooped them up. No, he went to nasa n the politicians.

As for owning mars etc I don't think with the costs for a single country its feasible, n other state would tolerate bs american claims.

Lastly, space is dead. They can strip mars n everything, there's no environment to pollute so there's no argument against industrializing space..

I'm not a fan of musk either, I don't trust his cars n claims.

There is the outside 500+ years chance that we can terraform Mars. Right now we don't even have the tech to do it. So stripping it clean might not be the best idea.

[Hinastorm]

I agree those are more important things to fix. I'm of the mind that we can do both. Space travel funding isn't preventing Education and Social Services funding - those are all merely political considerations.

But a Moon Base is going to happen within 10 years. 15 at the outside.

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There is the outside 500+ years chance that we can terraform Mars. Right now we don't even have the tech to do it. So stripping it clean might not be the best idea.

Pretty much the only way both happen is if we finally heavily tax the rich. I don't see it happening. Certainly not in 10-15 years.

I'd add that perhaps we should focus on the things mentioned first, then try to fund space after that.

[cubby]

Pretty much the only way both happen is if we finally heavily tax the rich. I don't see it happening. Certainly not in 10-15 years.

I'd add that perhaps we should focus on the things mentioned first, then try to fund space after that.

And unfortunately the only one that's at risk are the social programs and education. The Moon Base is going to happen, probably this decade. But I really hear what you're saying.

[Hinastorm]

And unfortunately the only one that's at risk are the social programs and education. The Moon Base is going to happen, probably this decade. But I really hear what you're saying.

Why are you so certain it's going to happen? And why do you seemingly think it's either equally or more important than all the things I mentioned.

If I had the power, i'd do everything I could to divert those moonbase funds to more important things. Are you not the same way?

I suspect your interest in space may be clouding your judgement.

[cubby]

Why are you so certain it's going to happen?

Because serious and workable plans, from multiple countries, and already underway. NASA isn't screwing around, having already selected their Artemis Team. They know the structure of how they want to build the base (permanent orbiting base around the Moon, then Moon Base from that, using a lander from the Orbiter that just goes up and down).

And that doesn't include any of SpaceX's capabilities or plans. Musk wants Mars, but the Moon is a perfect proving ground for permanent Mars colonization, and with Starlink and affording heavy lift capability, he can afford it all. And returnable Mars is literally priceless.

And why do you seemingly think it's either equally or more important than all the things I mentioned.

I've never said that. Ever. Importance isn't a factor here, unfortunately - but for the record, social programs and education are more important. They just won't get the funding they deserve because of politics. Compared to those social programs (and many more that haven't been mentioned, $10B is nothing. The Department of Education's annual budget is $68B, and they currently suck at doing anything good right now - just as an example.

[Hinastorm]

Because serious and workable plans, from multiple countries, and already underway. NASA isn't screwing around, having already selected their Artemis Team. They know the structure of how they want to build the base (permanent orbiting base around the Moon, then Moon Base from that, using a lander from the Orbiter that just goes up and down).

And that doesn't include any of SpaceX's capabilities or plans. Musk wants Mars, but the Moon is a perfect proving ground for permanent Mars colonization, and with Starlink and affording heavy lift capability, he can afford it all. And returnable Mars is literally priceless.




I've never said that. Ever. Importance isn't a factor here, unfortunately - but for the record, social programs and education are more important. They just won't get the funding they deserve because of politics. Compared to those social programs (and many more that haven't been mentioned, $10B is nothing. The Department of Education's annual budget is $68B, and they currently suck at doing anything good right now - just as an example.

Importance is a factor, actually, especially when it comes to NASA, since that is purely a government entity.

The fact that plans exist is irrelevant. We can strip the funding for it with the stroke of a pen, and should.

That 10bil number was pulled out of my ass. It is likely far higher when all is said and done.

Again, I think your interest in space is clouding your judgment. Some vanity project that MIGHT have some sort of meaningful benefits to the population, makes no sense at this time. Nothing you can say will change my mind on that.

[cubby]

Importance is a factor, actually, especially when it comes to NASA, since that is purely a government entity.

The fact that plans exist is irrelevant. We can strip the funding for it with the stroke of a pen, and should.

That 10bil number was pulled out of my ass. It is likely far higher when all is said and done.

Again, I think your interest in space is clouding your judgment.

You misunderstand - I'm saying those social programs are important, they just don't get the funding they deserve. But space does, because it needs less and the politics aren't really an issue.

Of course anything can happen - we'll just have to see.

[Shadowferal]

And exactly what good to society are we expecting from the 10's of billions of dollars that a "moon base" will cost?.

Yeah...if this is my tax money I will heavily question the benefits.
Especially considering current circumstances.

[cubby]

Yeah...if this is my tax money I will heavily question the benefits.
Especially considering current circumstances.

People do seem to forget that a lot of non-space innovation comes from research and development into space travel. That being said, there are a number of entire arenas of social policy that do not have enough funding.

But I'm a major fan of space travel and exploration.

[Shadowferal]

But I'm a major fan of space travel and exploration.

Once upon a time I too was a fan as well. I remember watching the moon landing in '69 and thinking I want to be an astronaut. National merit scholar in physics for a few years in high school.

Sadly...that was then.

[cubby]

Once upon a time I too was a fan as well. I remember watching the moon landing in '69 and thinking I want to be an astronaut. National merit scholar in physics for a few years in high school.

Sadly...that was then.

Interesting.

I feel that same energy and excitement with SpaceX and their achievements. We landed on the moon 50 years ago, and then lost interest. Mars is our next "Moon", but it will take another Moon landing to get there.

I personally think I will be alive to see not only the first Mars landing, but a colonization effort in earnest.

[Vash The Stampede]

I thought a UBI was outside the realm of government money right now, at least for the United States. I'm not arguing here, just clarifying, if that makes sense.

That's why starting a space age is unrealistic right now because a lot of things are outside the realm of government. Once this COVID thing is over, if this COVID thing is over, then we'll have bigger problems to deal with. Realistically we could be looking at a depression that won't be easily solved. Not only could COVID have permanently killed off some jobs, but it promoted new technology that is going to automate away jobs.

Maybe we're headed for a Star Trek future where going to space would have ended world hunger and poverty, while eliminating money. That future is not right now. The way I see it a UBI is the least the government could do to move forward from COVID. You'll need a lot more than a UBI to restore the economy.

But Mars by 2030, hell yeah that would be possible.

It could be if we could somehow print money without worrying about hyper inflation. We would need to change how our economy works if we want to go to Mars by 2030.

[cubby]

That's why starting a space age is unrealistic right now because a lot of things are outside the realm of government. Once this COVID thing is over, if this COVID thing is over, then we'll have bigger problems to deal with. Realistically we could be looking at a depression that won't be easily solved. Not only could COVID have permanently killed off some jobs, but it promoted new technology that is going to automate away jobs.

We aren't starting one, we're in one. It's happening right now. SpaceX made space access cheap, and that means money, and money will draw more people to space, and that's essentially a snow ball effect. So unrealistic or not, we're here. None of the reasons you gave are reasons that would prevent a space age from blooming.

Maybe we're headed for a Star Trek future where going to space would have ended world hunger and poverty, while eliminating money. That future is not right now. The way I see it a UBI is the least the government could do to move forward from COVID. You'll need a lot more than a UBI to restore the economy.

Much as my eternal optimism would like to think we'll get a Star Trek version of humanity out of a new Space Age, it will more look more like The Expanse than anything else. Corporations and greed will get us into space, and those two things will both keep us going and keep us, well, expanding.

The future is in fact right now. Moon Base by 2025, Mars by 2040. Those thing will happen, barring some catastrophic collapse of society.

But Mars by 2030, hell yeah that would be possible.

It could be if we could somehow print money without worrying about hyper inflation. We would need to change how our economy works if we want to go to Mars by 2030.

Not sure where you are getting you data, but it won't take any change in the economy to get to Moon/Mars. Why do you think our economy would need to change to get to Mars? SpaceX is already doing that for us, and not only doing it MUCH faster than the government, they are doing it for far less.