Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Edge-]

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...virus-response

And the shitshow that has been the US response over the past year makes a lot more sense now with this context. This is why I have said my country is incapable of combating a pandemic. I can only hope with leadership that's looking at real data and listens to experts that our fortunes change sooner rather than later.

Seeing the positive test/death rate dropping in recent weeks has been nice.

[Easo]

Some really good news.

It already looks like their overall case count is dropping. The end is in sight.

[PhaelixWW]

It already looks like their overall case count is dropping. The end is in sight.

Worldometers is reporting that the world just passed 100 million confirmed cases, another grim milestone.

But with holiday travel all finished, the flu season roughly 2/3 over, and (most importantly) the vaccine starting to roll out, we've hopefully seen the peak of the world's infection curve.

You know, unlike when it was first suggested by some back in July.

The 7-day rolling average of new cases has fallen about 20% since the high recorded on 1/11. We'll have to see if the continued spread of the newer variants cause another rise in cases, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we won't see an increase above the mark set two weeks ago.

The WHO tracker is reporting decreasing new case counts last week for all 6 regions for the first time, I believe, ever in this pandemic. If that's not simply due to reporting delays, then that's a very good sign.

[PACOX]

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...virus-response

And the shitshow that has been the US response over the past year makes a lot more sense now with this context. This is why I have said my country is incapable of combating a pandemic. I can only hope with leadership that's looking at real data and listens to experts that our fortunes change sooner rather than later.

Seeing the positive test/death rate dropping in recent weeks has been nice.

Earlier I posted how its the third week in a row that vaccines in my area just up and vanished in less than 30 min. Vaccines for the elderly and healthcare/long-term care workers (so anyone in the field outside of facilities firmly embedded into the local department of health). I got news from a coworker, later verified, that the state was supposed to start giving doses to healthcare/LTC workers - doses set aside and not part of the doses given to 65+. That program was canceled...today. Only half of the total doses allocated to the state have been administered. No doses are set aside for the second dose. So half of the doses are missing. I have theories but I can't back up any of that information.

- - - Updated - - -

It already looks like their overall case count is dropping. The end is in sight.

This statement has been made every month since March.

I've had to deal with the pandemic at work since February. I'll believe its over when in 2023.

[Granyala]

The WHO tracker is reporting decreasing new case counts last week for all 6 regions for the first time, I believe, ever in this pandemic. If that's not simply due to reporting delays, then that's a very good sign.

Well I don't know how many countries currently force lower numbers via hard lockdowns.

[Easo]

This statement has been made every month since March.

I've had to deal with the pandemic at work since February. I'll believe its over when in 2023.

In March you did not have vaccines or a country where almost half had their first dose of it (and impressive number already on the second).

[Combatbutler]

In March you did not have vaccines or a country where almost half had their first dose of it (and impressive number already on the second).

So long as it isn't contained on a global level it isn't over and new mutations are very likely to pop up all over the place. It might become somewhat manageable, but this whole thing is far from being over.

[Granyala]

So long as it isn't contained on a global level it isn't over and new mutations are very likely to pop up all over the place. It might become somewhat manageable, but this whole thing is far from being over.

It will never be over or gone. We will, eventually, be able to treat it like the flu. Yearly Vaccine shots, a manageable death toll we will come to accept etc.

[Derrick Robinson]

very scary because of what is happening in the world now.

[Easo]

So long as it isn't contained on a global level it isn't over and new mutations are very likely to pop up all over the place. It might become somewhat manageable, but this whole thing is far from being over.

But it is going to be contained on the global level, this year even, at least in the most of the world. Mutations as of right now do not seem to be a big concern, vaccines already work against the existing ones, including the faster spreading one.
Be less pesimistic.

[Combatbutler]

But it is going to be contained on the global level, this year even, at least in the most of the world. Mutations as of right now do not seem to be a big concern, vaccines already work against the existing ones, including the faster spreading one.
Be less pesimistic.

Why should I be less pessimistic? The clusterfuck people displayed give me very little reason to trust people to get their shit together

[Forogil]

The WHO tracker is reporting decreasing new case counts last week for all 6 regions for the first time, I believe, ever in this pandemic. If that's not simply due to reporting delays, then that's a very good sign.

Hopefully, but based on my experience with those reports it might partially due to reporting delays for half of the regions (Africa, West Pac, East Med); we will see in a few days - especially as the decrease in West Pac isn't even statistically significant.

However, as always reported case-numbers don't tell the whole story - Europe's latest peak was about 8 times higher in number of cases than during spring last year; but only about 50% more deaths. (Obviously treatment is a bit better, but not that much better.) Deaths are a bit more reliable, but lagging one or two weeks, so we will likely see them declining in February.

[Easo]

Why should I be less pessimistic? The clusterfuck people displayed give me very little reason to trust people to get their shit together

If nothing else, then because vaccination is in full force and on an increasing scale.

[Forogil]

Earlier today I heard that the preliminary results from vaccination are encouraging that it actually reduces the spread of severe cases of covid in practice (and not only in trials):
https://www.economist.com/science-an...e-a-difference

Expected, but always good to get it confirmed.

[PACOX]

In March you did not have vaccines or a country where almost half had their first dose of it (and impressive number already on the second).

I'll believe the general population starts getting vaccined in March if and when it happens. I work in healthcare at a LTC. We aren't getting anything until Feb now ASSUMING 50% of the doses stop growing feet and mysteriously walking away.


Its going to be a lot worse when general population has access. Many people are going to deny taking the shot, more than people who refuse to wear mask or exercise caution. Among those who do, they will become a spreader or even get themselves sick because they don't know how vaccines work. It's a logistical nightmare now...hell some areas still struggle with testing...mass vaccine is going to be a hot mess. No way we're going to stick 300 million people, twice, by June.


And everyone is going to need a booster most likely, per Moderna. And then we have to hope and pray the shots work long enough for everyone to get initial two.


Yup, 2023

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It will never be over or gone. We will, eventually, be able to treat it like the flu. Yearly Vaccine shots, a manageable death toll we will come to accept etc.

If we have to count on people to get COVID19 shots like flu shots then it's going to be rough. COVID19 passports for interstate travel will be a real thing...were living in a dystopia!

[Granyala]

If we have to count on people to get COVID19 shots like flu shots then it's going to be rough. COVID19 passports for interstate travel will be a real thing...were living in a dystopia!

Not really.
Flu vaccination is viewed critically by many here because
a) Flu isn't perceived as a particularly scary thing except for risk patients (it should be but it isn't)
b) the flu vaccine is such an ineffective gamble at ~30%, than many people cannot be arsed.

I certainly never got a flu shot.

With C19, honestly, as long as the people > 60 are vaccinated, I don't think you need every man woman and child to take the shot every year. Statistics of the last 9 months show that death toll is negligible in the younger age groups. Still, if the vaccines are effective acceptance might be a lot higher compared to the flu's, since people's awareness of C19 is on a completely different level and many are scared of it.

[Forogil]

Not really.
Flu vaccination is viewed critically by many here because
a) Flu isn't perceived as a particularly scary thing except for risk patients (it should be but it isn't)
b) the flu vaccine is such an ineffective gamble at ~30%, than many people cannot be arsed.

An additional minor consequence of this pandemic might be that we apply the same mRNA technique to flu vaccines, and thus get good flu vaccines.
The downside is that it will be more expensive.

I certainly never got a flu shot.

As far as I understand that flu vaccines is a much bigger deal in the US than in EU (CDC recommends it for everyone, ECDC primarily risk groups like 65+). The difference might be explained by the lack of sick days in the US - so there's a greater economic risk of getting the flu.

[PhaelixWW]

An additional minor consequence of this pandemic might be that we apply the same mRNA technique to flu vaccines, and thus get good flu vaccines.
The downside is that it will be more expensive.

Why do you think so? The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine costs under $20 per dose, though it requires two doses. Standard flu vaccines cost about the same.

Do you have reason to believe that a mRNA flu vaccine would require the same two doses for worthwhile effectiveness? Also the cost of mRNA vaccines should do nothing but fall, since this is only the first widespread usage.

Part of the benefit of mRNA vaccines is the ease with which they're produced, since your body does most of the work of replicating the antigen.

[Forogil]

Why do you think so? The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine costs under $20 per dose, though it requires two doses. Standard flu vaccines cost about the same.

I believe they will likely try to make more profit the coming years - and the US doesn't have a good track-record of low prices for medicine. Additionally, a standard flu vaccine is also normally 3 or 4 different vaccines in one, which may influence the cost (assuming they don't crack the code for "universal flu vaccine").

Looking at the various vaccine-costs for covid-19 for EU the costs seem to $2 for Astra-Zeneca dose, $8.5 for J&J, $12 for CureVac, $14 for Pfizer-BioNTech dose and $18 for Moderna dose. (When they get approved.) The three mRNA vaccines are the ones that cost the most, I don't believe that is a coincidence.

WHO also did some cost-calculations for flu vaccines giving cost estimates in the lower end of the spectrum a few years ago https://www.who.int/influenza_vaccin...n_5_friede.pdf

[PhaelixWW]

I believe they will likely try to make more profit the coming years - and the US doesn't have a good track-record of low prices for medicine.

Currently, some 150 million+ flu vaccine shots are administered in the US, and that's just the US. If Pfizer/BioNTech are interested in profit, that's where they'll make it. But in order for them to make that profit, they have to come in cheaper per dose than the alternative. I'm no economist, but I think that's pretty unassailable logic.

Companies follow the money, and this will be a perpetual cash cow for them, even at cheaper prices per dose.

Additionally, a standard flu vaccine is also normally 3 or 4 different vaccines in one, which may influence the cost.

I have a feeling that the cost here isn't going to be in the development of each vaccine variant, but in the actual distribution mechanism. If that's the case, it won't matter too much if they're putting 1 or 4 vaccines in the same injection.