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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Not believing in a baseless doomsday prophecy is hypocrisy? How? Why?

    I'm not saying we'll ever get to a utopia in the future I'm just saying there's no reason to think humanity is declining and will be going extinct in the next 200 years.
    You suffer from a serious case of a combined Optimism Bias and Planning Fallacy.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by Flathet View Post
    I have no idea why you're perpetuating this lie. You either get lucky or you're stuck. Doesn't matter how much effort you put in. The system is rigged against poor people.
    Believe what you will, but hard work is never worthless. You're never going to make a better situation for yourself just being angry at something.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    Believe what you will, but hard work is never worthless. You're never going to make a better situation for yourself just being angry at something.
    Nobody said it was. But the "Work hard and you'll succeed!" is a bogus myth that hasn't been true for ages, and even when it was closer to true still ignored the importance of connections and/or luck.

    Everyone who succeeds from nothing always cites hard work, and they did work hard. Few cite the luck that helped them succeed, because the narrative that their hard work did everything for them is more compelling internally and externally.

    Again, some of the hardest working folks I know are poor or struggling. Some of the least hard working folks I know are doing damned well for themselves.

  4. #84
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post
    I didn't grow up poor, but it is expensive to be poor. I have learned that.

    Pretty darn sure those cards have entirely replaced the food stamps at this point dude.
    I think he is implying he is old... I used the paper ones as well... we only did it for a year or so...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    Believe what you will, but hard work is never worthless. You're never going to make a better situation for yourself just being angry at something.
    It has a lot less to do than people say... My last job, for over 3 years, my work ethic earned me the nick name of god. Management teams changed, then less than a year later, with my work not going down at all... I was laid off. One of the first meeting we had during the transition early on, the new manager called me out... asked my old manager if it was true they called me ‘the Holy Ghost that watches over us’, she responded with ‘no, we call him god’... the look on his face... I knew it was over... a coupe of weeks later, and my gf heard this, the asshole said... ‘you are a lot easier in text’.

    I get shit on a lot by fake alpha males in position of power, because I don’t have to try to present as an alpha... my size does it for me... it always becomes a one sided conflict... since I just want to go home and get stoned...
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  5. #85
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    You suffer from a serious case of a combined Optimism Bias and Planning Fallacy.
    I think the large majority of people have a pessimism bias but I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is right. Covid is certainly throwing a shade on life but we're finding more and more solutions so hopefully all the restrictions will be gone by 2022.

    I'm certainly not a "planner" though because the future is unpredictable in principle and the past can't tell us the future ahead of time. So there's no way of knowing exactly how long it will take to complete a new task. Thus there cannot ever truly be a "plan" for any of the hardest problems.
    Last edited by PC2; 2021-02-04 at 01:31 AM.

  6. #86
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I think the large majority of people have a pessimism bias but I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is right. Covid is certainly throwing a shade on life but we're finding more and more solutions so hopefully all the restrictions will be gone by 2022.
    How old are you? Go play a game of hoops... remember how it was 10 years ago? How about 20? Pessimism is the natural course of life... if it wasn’t, we wouldn’t need constant reminders that it gets better.

    I'm certainly not a "planner" though because the future is unpredictable in principle and the past can't tell us the future ahead of time. So there's no way of knowing exactly how long it will take to complete a task. Thus there cannot ever truly be a "plan" for any of the hardest problems.
    I am generally an optimist... but, we sure as hell can predict at least one thing happening and that’s a real kick in the balls for optimism.



    Edit: “sure as hell”... damn am an idiot sometimes... lol
    Last edited by Felya; 2021-02-04 at 01:44 AM.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Nobody said it was. But the "Work hard and you'll succeed!" is a bogus myth that hasn't been true for ages, and even when it was closer to true still ignored the importance of connections and/or luck.

    Everyone who succeeds from nothing always cites hard work, and they did work hard. Few cite the luck that helped them succeed, because the narrative that their hard work did everything for them is more compelling internally and externally.

    Again, some of the hardest working folks I know are poor or struggling. Some of the least hard working folks I know are doing damned well for themselves.
    I alluded to that somewhat when I said that hard work needs to be applied to the right things. I won't deny there is likely a luck element, but trying to push this narrative that it's entirely or extremely heavily reliant on luck is just as bogus.

    If you're not working hard at the right things, there's very little chance you'll make it out of a bad situation.

    Where you spend your time and energy is just as important as you actually working hard when it comes to success. Because those choices of where you spend your time and energy are what create those opportunities for luck to happen. I'm not even entirely convinced it's luck, as much as it is a culmination of good choices and hard work leading to an opportunity where you get noticed by the right people at the right time. That opportunity would never have happened had the hard work and choices not been made. Sometimes folks stumble across the right person at some lucky time, but that's not something you can ever bank on happening. Trying to paint this situation as if success is entirely reliant on luck and hard work doesn't matter is detrimental to everyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    It has a lot less to do than people say... My last job, for over 3 years, my work ethic earned me the nick name of god. Management teams changed, then less than a year later, with my work not going down at all... I was laid off. One of the first meeting we had during the transition early on, the new manager called me out... asked my old manager if it was true they called me ‘the Holy Ghost that watches over us’, she responded with ‘no, we call him god’... the look on his face... I knew it was over... a coupe of weeks later, and my gf heard this, the asshole said... ‘you are a lot easier in text’.

    I get shit on a lot by fake alpha males in position of power, because I don’t have to try to present as an alpha... my size does it for me... it always becomes a one sided conflict... since I just want to go home and get stoned...
    What's the takeaway from this story of yours? Because it sounds bit like there was a bit more going on there than what you're letting on. You don't typically just get laid off like that if your work holds up, you're a top performer, etc... unless there's a budget issue, and even then, problem makers are the ones that end up on the chopping block first. If you're a valuable employee, they keep you. Unless you pissed off someone in a position to fire you. In which case, that's kind of on you.

    That said, shit happens sometimes and people are assholes. Can't deny that sometimes companies/businesses end up letting people go that they never should have due to some misunderstanding or fuck up.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    I alluded to that somewhat when I said that hard work needs to be applied to the right things. I won't deny there is likely a luck element, but trying to push this narrative that it's entirely or extremely heavily reliant on luck is just as bogus.
    Sure, but if you're already working hard just to survive...how are you going to find even more time to work hard at "the right things", whatever those may be? Because "the right things" are going to be different in every situation.

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...n-we-realized/
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-think/476394/

    It's a damned significant factor. Damned significant.

  9. #89
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    What's the takeaway from this story of yours? Because it sounds bit like there was a bit more going on there than what you're letting on. You don't typically just get laid off like that if your work holds up, you're a top performer, etc... unless there's a budget issue, and even then, problem makers are the ones that end up on the chopping block first. If you're a valuable employee, they keep you. Unless you pissed off someone in a position to fire you. In which case, that's kind of on you.

    That said, shit happens sometimes and people are assholes. Can't deny that sometimes companies/businesses end up letting people go that they never should have due to some misunderstanding or fuck up.
    I tried... but, if I go into details, it’s too easy to tell what I am talking about. Let’s just say... a “manager” had lunch with me on the last day and told me it was obviously personal... tried to relate by saying he was looking for a job, because of how fucked this was.

    Damn... keep saying too much... will just leave it at that... I am lucky to have my current job and I hope this is the last one... not in a bad way... retire early... lol
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Sure, but if you're already working hard just to survive...how are you going to find even more time to work hard at "the right things", whatever those may be? Because "the right things" are going to be different in every situation.

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...n-we-realized/
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-think/476394/

    It's a damned significant factor. Damned significant.
    You hit the nail on the head with what I bolded.

    Also, as significant as luck might be (I'm still not 100% convinced, but I admit that there are something that happen with no other term that can be applied), it's not something you can ever rely on. So why put all your eggs into that basket?

    Quote Originally Posted by Flathet View Post
    Bullshit.

    I received compensation from my insurance company for something that happened to me in my teen years and left it for them to invest for an administrative cost. To make as much money as I've gotten from that through work I would have to work decades. And that's just for the amount that is there currently.
    So...you received compensation from your insurance company because you were mad at the world for luck?

    I've also already touched on the idea that WHERE you spend your time and energy is just as important (I'd argue it's actually far more important) than actually using that time and energy. You obviously chose to spend some of yours on investing your money and are reaping the benefits of that.

    What exactly are you calling bullshit on?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    I tried... but, if I go into details, it’s too easy to tell what I am talking about. Let’s just say... a “manager” had lunch with me on the last day and told me it was obviously personal... tried to relate by saying he was looking for a job, because of how fucked this was.

    Damn... keep saying too much... will just leave it at that... I am lucky to have my current job and I hope this is the last one... not in a bad way... retire early... lol
    Yeah, I thought so. You got a raw deal dude, but it sounds like you did something at some point (whether intentionally or not) that pissed off somebody enough to make it personal, but also allowed them to lay you off without much of an HR issue.

    Hope your current situation works out better.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    Also, as significant as luck might be (I'm still not 100% convinced, but I admit that there are something that happen with no other term that can be applied), it's not something you can ever rely on. So why put all your eggs into that basket?
    That's the point, dude. You wan work as hard as you want, and even find the "right things" to work at, but with luck being a total random factor you can do all the right things and still end up working your ass off and being poor.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Sorensen View Post
    If you're poor don't have kids.
    This is problematic.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    That's the point, dude. You wan work as hard as you want, and even find the "right things" to work at, but with luck being a total random factor you can do all the right things and still end up working your ass off and being poor.
    I'll never subscribe to the idea that success is entirely reliant on luck. There's far too many other factors involved in life, in general, to say that. But I will not deny that situations like what you're describing exist. That would be willful ignorance on my part.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Flathet View Post
    I've signed one paper stating they can invest the money on my behalf for an administrative cost. Some real hard work there. The monthly growth on it is more than what people in my home country make in a month of working hard and I'm doing absolutely no work at all for it. I check in on it a few times per year but all the choices/decisions where the money is invested is made by the insurance company.

    Sure is hard work to do nothing.
    Not necessarily saying it's hard work, but you did make a conscious decision to do what you did. I'd wager you did some research beforehand to see if it was worthwhile? If so, you're reaping the benefits of that decision. That's not luck.

    Hard work can come from using your brain, doing research, thinking about things, etc... it doesn't just have to mean hard manual labor and extremely long hours.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    People continue to ignore the crucial factor of "luck" alongside the hard work. Because like, poor folks are generally some of the hardest working folks I've ever known. And they're still poor.
    There is no such thing. You don't need to work hard but smart. If 7 billion people can do what you can do and there isn't much demand for it, no one is gonna pay you well for your work.

    I used to work in the IT field before going freelance and there was always demand for that sort of work, even shortage with employers competing for best programmers. Absolutely no luck involved and we got to be lazy as hell, sleep till noon or even skip days at times as long as we mostly met the deadlines. I assume it's the same for doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers and other skilled professionals (although I guess most don't get to be as lazy but get still paid well).

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I think the large majority of people have a pessimism bias but I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is right. Covid is certainly throwing a shade on life but we're finding more and more solutions so hopefully all the restrictions will be gone by 2022.

    I'm certainly not a "planner" though because the future is unpredictable in principle and the past can't tell us the future ahead of time. So there's no way of knowing exactly how long it will take to complete a new task. Thus there cannot ever truly be a "plan" for any of the hardest problems.
    There's also no fallacy of using examples of the past to predict the future.

  16. #96
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    There's also no fallacy of using examples of the past to predict the future.
    It's called an inductive fallacy. When you're predicting the future of society you should base your predictions on explanations and not historical examples.
    Last edited by PC2; 2021-02-04 at 02:59 AM.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    It's called an inductive fallacy. When you're predicting the future of society you should base your predictions on explanations and not historical examples.
    That's just rationalizing lazy thinking and lazy work to justify making the same mistakes.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fencers View Post
    This is problematic.
    yeah well kids are problematic.
    Driving on Sunshine.

    PM for Tesla referral code.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    It's called an inductive fallacy. When you're predicting the future of society you should base your predictions on explanations and not historical examples.
    What’s the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning?
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    What’s the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning?
    Inductive reasoning is when you gather a bunch of observations and draw a conclusion/theory from those observations. Deductive is the opposite basically; you look at a theory/conclusion and work on proofing/testing the conclusion/theory by looking at the observations and generalizations that it is based on.

    I don't know if your question was sincere or not but I answered it anyway because the internet is forever.

    Edit: Typically you need both by the way. Most surveys and in particular research over a long duration uses both Inductive and Deductive methods to develop (inductive) and proof (deductive) the conclusion. That guy you quoted is wrong, historical examples are inclusive of well-reasoned conclusions. It's just they are rarely only historical observations that make up a conclusion; because the data or historical context can change or be faulty. If the reasoning is sound, it works front to back and vice-versa; inductively and deductively the conclusion ought to hold if sound. Which can also be multiple conclusions; or new conclusions that arise based on scrutiny.
    Last edited by Fencers; 2021-02-04 at 03:32 AM.

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