Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[razorpax]

I just find it funny how people really argue that a 9.3 is bringing in more revenue than a 10.0 that launches on time or even a little bit sooner. And even funnier are the guys that claim 9.3 is still possible if everything is just timed right and has a duration of only 6 months. Like the final drought after / during pandemic development is all of a sudden shortened from 10 months to 6 - this is the actual funny part here.

To fit a 9.3 into Shadowlands would require a perfect rollout without any delays, e.g.

9.1: June 21
9.2: December 21
9.3: June 22
10.0 (pre patch): November
10.0: December 22

If you just delay any of that by a month, the entire schedule is f*. And this schedule only works, if the last patch has a duration of even less than 6 months, because we have the pre patch on top of that.

And I mean 9.2 in December and particularly 10.0 expansion launch in December? That’s so incredibly unlikely. And no, they won’t delay 10.0 just to squeeze another patch into Shadowlands. People’s expectations that Shadowlands is about to get a proper expansion layout are delusional. If 10.0 doesn’t continue the Jailer‘s storyline, we’re going to end him in 9.2. 9.1 basically indicates that already as we kill most of his allies.

My pessimism has not even anything to do with hate or whatever, it’s just the fact that the schedule is completely busted.

Getting 10.0 out on time and it being great like Legion is their absolute main priority right now.

How can 10.0 launch in the original time frame when we can assume they are also behind??

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I really don't get why people are talking about there being only 2 content patches for SL, when: A. SL and other Blizzard products are getting pushed back and delayed. And B. The schedule's all fucked. Revenue means nothing if you're just gonna rush shit or finish shit early. That's not how it works.

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

But but the unofficial 2 year schedule is never ever going to be changed

[Nyel]

How can 10.0 launch in the original time frame when we can assume they are also behind??

This answer is easy: because work they planned for 9.3 is shifted towards 10.0 and they’re wrapping up former 9.3 content in 9.2 - happened exactly this way in WoD.

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I really don't get why people are talking about there being only 2 content patches for SL, when: A. SL and other Blizzard products are getting pushed back and delayed. And B. The schedule's all fucked. Revenue means nothing if you're just gonna rush shit or finish shit early. That's not how it works.

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

Because WoW is a games as a service game with expansions and not a game that’s been released once and then only gets occasional DLCs, if at all. Blizzard absolutely needs the cash that’s generated every two years by their expansion sales for WoW. They’re losing out hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter they’re not releasing the expansion in. They need the expansion to boost their sales.

I agree on the last part though: 9.2 tells us if there is 9.3 or not.

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Yep, that would be only real proof. Especially description of 9.2 raid/last boss. In scenario when we have only 3 seasons I could see also some info in interview, since it would be something they won't usually do.

Outside that, we have just assumptions. For example, why the hell 10.0 MUST release in 2022? Blizzard has Diablo IV and Overwatch 2 that were revealed back in 2019. Do you think Blizzard release all 3 in 2022? Or you think DIV or OV2 will release sooner after game revealed in (in this scenario) in 2022? If Blizzard will have 2 new games ready for that year, actually SL having one more patch to release would be optimal.

And it's just one. Don't get me wrong - "there will be 4 season cause it's usual amount of content" is also assumption.

Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.
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Delaying 10.0 is from a financial standpoint the option that means the biggest financial loss.

[Nathanyel]

[January] is my earliest bet for the 9.2 release date. It’s pretty clear what this means for Shadowlands overall.

Yeah, it means there is more than enough time to do a 9.3 and also finish 10.0 by October/November. Probably with some cut features, or skipping 9.X.5 patches, sure, but I'd actually prefer that to getting a last patch in January and then nothing but expansion lull until Q4.

Or actually delay 10.0 until early 2022, whatever. This pandemic won't be over by the summer or even the fall, no need to rush or cut short your product if you'll face more delays down the line anyway.

[Nyel]

Yeah, it means there is more than enough time to do a 9.3 and also finish 10.0 by October/November. Probably with some cut features, or skipping 9.X.5 patches, sure, but I'd actually prefer that to getting a last patch in January and then nothing but expansion lull until Q4.

Or actually delay 10.0 until early 2022, whatever. This pandemic won't be over by the summer or even the fall, no need to rush or cut short your product if you'll face more delays down the line anyway.

If 9.2 gets released in January, how will you fit 9.3 and 10.0 in 2022?

9.2: January
10.0 pre patch: November
10.0: December (that’s already very late)

So between January and November you have 10 months to fit a ~9-10 months content drought and a 6 months duration for 9.2 into - good luck with that.

In every scenario 10.0 beats 9.3 from a financial standpoint.

[Edward Wu]

Likely reality:

July 2021: Shadowlands 9.1
October 2021: TBC Classic
December 2021: Shadowlands 9.1.5 & TBC Black Temple
January 2022: TBC Gods of Zul'Aman
February 2022: Shadowlands 9.2
March 2022: TBC Sunwell & Isle of Quel'danas
April 2022: 10.0 Alpha
May 2022: 10.0 Beta
October 2022: 10.0 Pre-patch
November 2022: 10.0 Expansion launch

[Dracullus]

Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.

My whole point is that your "10.0 MUST launch in 2022" is just assumption that is easy to break if Blizz release DIV and OV2 in 2022. Your answer is "no, Diablo IV isn't going to release in 2022". Dude, that's ANOTHER assumption and this time I don't even know what the hell is your base, Christmas '22 is like 20 months from now.

You just mark 5-6 unrelated events as 'confirmed' and create scenario where 9.3 is not possible. You did exactly same thing two years ago.

[huth]

If 9.2 gets released in January, how will you fit 9.3 and 10.0 in 2022?

You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

[Dracullus]

You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

Also this. They told us already that making expansion is long process with many bottlenecks that can't be solved with throwing more people at it. Judging from rumors WoD was planned to end with 6.2 even before release. It still didn't save expac from unnatural drought, maybe they saved few months at best.

If 9.1/patches production is slowed down, 10.0 production is affected by this as well.

[Nyel]

Likely reality:

July 2021: Shadowlands 9.1
October 2021: TBC Classic
December 2021: Shadowlands 9.1.5 & TBC Black Temple
January 2022: TBC Gods of Zul'Aman
February 2022: Shadowlands 9.2
March 2022: TBC Sunwell & Isle of Quel'danas
April 2022: 10.0 Alpha
May 2022: 10.0 Beta
October 2022: 10.0 Pre-patch
November 2022: 10.0 Expansion launch

Yeah pretty much. 9.3 PTR and 10.0 Alpha / Beta would have to take place at the exact same time, which makes it even less likely.

[TheFirstOnes]

This answer is easy: because work they planned for 9.3 is shifted towards 10.0 and they’re wrapping up former 9.3 content in 9.2 - happened exactly this way in WoD.

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Because WoW is a games as a service game with expansions and not a game that’s been released once and then only gets occasional DLCs, if at all. Blizzard absolutely needs the cash that’s generated every two years by their expansion sales for WoW. They’re losing out hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter they’re not releasing the expansion in. They need the expansion to boost their sales.

I agree on the last part though: 9.2 tells us if there is 9.3 or not.

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Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.
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Delaying 10.0 is from a financial standpoint the option that means the biggest financial loss.

You say this like finishing SL fast and leaving plotpoints open-ended (Meaning they probably won't be solved later on unless Blizzard pulls a new threat out of its ass, which is unlikely) is not going to make people completely quit the game...

[Nyel]

My whole point is that your "10.0 MUST launch in 2022" is just assumption that is easy to break if Blizz release DIV and OV2 in 2022. Your answer is "no, Diablo IV isn't going to release in 2022". Dude, that's ANOTHER assumption and this time I don't even know what the hell is your base, Christmas '22 is like 20 months from now.

You just mark 5-6 unrelated events as 'confirmed' and create scenario where 9.3 is not possible. You did exactly same thing two years ago.

What’s more likely. 10.0 in 2022 which most likely has been already planned to launch that year several years ago or Diablo IV in 2022, which is a completely unfinished product yet and was just revealed less than two years ago?

Diablo IV was announced in 2019 and remember, 2018 they revealed Diablo Immortal because they had nothing to show of Diablo IV that year. Diablo III was announced June 2008 and released May 2012 - 4 years later. A Diablo IV release 2022 would be a miracle - hey, I’d love that, but let’s be serious here: what’s likelier to get scheduled on time during a pandemic, a WoW expansion that launches every 2 year and is business as usual or a brand new Diablo game? So yes, I’m talking assumptions, but some are more likely and others less likely.

[TheFirstOnes]

Who's to say 10.0 won't just be pushed to 2023?

[Nyel]

You say this like finishing SL fast and leaving plotpoints open-ended (Meaning they probably won't be solved later on unless Blizzard pulls a new threat out of its ass, which is unlikely) is not going to make people completely quit the game...

Because it’s not. People don’t quit WoW forever just because one of their minor plots wasn’t realized in a content patch.

We got Emerald Nightmare as a raid and Azshara as a content patch - it can’t get much worse than that when it comes to abandoning plots and people already moved on. A brand new expansion due to its sales alone is driving revenue and most people, even if they don’t stay subbed, try (and buy) a new expansion.

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Who's to say 10.0 won't just be pushed to 2023?

Blizzard‘s CFO / financial department.

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You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

You can by doing exactly that. And I‘m not talking about they just shift their focus now. They know that they’re schedule is f* basically since the delay of Shadowlands. If not by then, just a few months later with the totally messed up schedule for 9.1.

It’s pretty obvious that 9.1 wouldn’t be such a chunk of content if they plan to have three meaty content patches with raids. It doesn’t fit their .1 scheme for first content patches.

[razorpax]

Because it’s not. People don’t quit WoW forever just because one of their minor plots wasn’t realized in a content patch.

We got Emerald Nightmare as a raid and Azshara as a content patch - it can’t get much worse than that when it comes to abandoning plots and people already moved over. A brand new expansion due to its sales alone is driving revenue and most people, even if they don’t stay subbed, try (and buy) a new expansion.

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Blizzard‘s CFO / financial department.

When did he say that?

[Nyel]

When did he say that?

He / she didn’t say that, but he / she is exactly the person who would prioritize a big chunk of cash vs. no chunk of cash. Annual spikes in revenue are very important for companies, that’s why they stick to their formulaic release schedules (e.g. Assassin‘s Creed for Ubisoft in November, Pokémon mainline games always in November etc.), because that’s how they plan and distribute revenue / money.

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Another note: the delay of Shadowlands didn’t affect their financial results at all because it was still a Q4 release as planned.

Moving 10.0 from 2022 to 2023 would delay it for an entire financial quarter.

[Dracullus]

He / she didn’t say that, but he / she is exactly the person who would prioritize a big chunk of cash vs. no chunk of cash. Annual spikes in revenue are very important for companies, that’s why they stick to their formulaic release schedules (e.g. Assassin‘s Creed for Ubisoft in November, Pokémon mainline games always in November etc.), because that’s how they plan and distribute revenue / money.

AC releases: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.. Sounds like they're pretty attached to cash in every year.

Oh, by the way, what Assasin's Creed game released in 2016 and 2019? Can't find that data.

[Wangming]

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

That much is true, yes. However even the story seems to pick up pace. Denathrius is down, 9.1 we will deal with Kel'Thuzad AND Sylvanas. Do we really want to chase after the Jailer for two more patches after that? We are already assualting his base.

[huth]

You can by doing exactly that. And I‘m not talking about they just shift their focus now. They know that they’re schedule is f* basically since the delay of Shadowlands. If not by then, just a few months later with the totally messed up schedule for 9.1.

The timeline is already shot. You can't fix it anymore unless things happen to go smoother than expected.

It’s pretty obvious that 9.1 wouldn’t be such a chunk of content if they plan to have three meaty content patches with raids. It doesn’t fit their .1 scheme for first content patches.

No, that's really just you trying to predict things based on absolutely nothing and pouncing on random details as "evidence". We don't even know how big the patch actually is.

[Nyel]

AC releases: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.. Sounds like they're pretty attached to cash in every year.

Oh, by the way, what Assasin's Creed game released in 2016 and 2019? Can't find that data.

Read again. I was talking about release months, which happened to be always November in the last years.

I just checked it, all but four AC main titles (8) released in early / mid November. The other four were released mid / end of October. All of them in Q3 each year. 2016 and 2019 had no mainline releases because Ubisoft was reevaluating and eventually completely revamping the gameplay (Origins, 2017) and Valhalla was more ambitious than the previous projects (2020). Annual releases where never what I was referring to, it was about the release frame and it’s always been Q3, either October or November. Granted, I said it was only November for AC, but it’s mostly November and not only.

[TheFirstOnes]

That much is true, yes. However even the story seems to pick up pace. Denathrius is down, 9.1 we will deal with Kel'Thuzad AND Sylvanas. Do we really want to chase after the Jailer for two more patches after that? We are already assualting his base.

Uhm, sure? I’ve already exclaimed why ya invading the Maw doesn’t mean shit