China... how to deal with them?

[Slant]

The different situation being that the west is allied to Isreal so they don't give a crap.

That's not entirely true. As the numerous calls for moderation from the EU and US have demonstrated. When will you commies learn that we have a free press and can read? Your bullshit propaganda doesn't work with intelligent people.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/inter...f-palestinians
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nnexation-plan

Don't derail the thread any further, make another thread about your Israel whining.

[Rasulis]

For now, yes. There's no signs obviously for China to be jumping anywhere when it comes to the cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing, but the efforsts are there. The state-owned companies are pumping out lucrative deals to whoever from Taiwan decides to be for sale. No need to worry too much about the bad return on investment as you're sitting on top of mostly bottomless state cache of money. And since Taiwan is pretty much The semiconductor fab of the world, this will gradually push the ability towards less agricultural chips they can make. Which eventually will then be eaten from the revenues of non-Chinese semiconductor manufacturers.

The CCP does have tremendous resources. However, it is not bottomless. Case in point, the major factor cited by the CCP in canceling the development of Types 004, 005, 006 and 007 aircraft carriers was slowing economy. Basically, aircraft carriers cost too much even for the CCP bottomless cache of money.

The second major factor cited was technical issues. In essence China ran into a dead end with their salt water reactor research. Which showed that the CCP can only go so far by copying 1980's Soviet technology. The transition from diesel & steam to nuclear powered is currently too steep of a leap for China’s Navy. Money and copied technology could only carry China’s aircraft carrier development so far.

Construction of the first Type 003 is reportedly fairly advanced, but its entry into service is currently delayed to at least 2030 by difficulties in developing the electromagnetic catapult launch system (another piece of copied technology) critical to its functionality. Meanwhile both the Liaoning and Shandong are good for bullying the Philippine and Vietnam navies. However, with their lack of anti submarine, torpedo and missile defense systems, against any modern naval force they are basically floating coffins.

Buying Taiwanese expertise to advance their semiconductor industry will only take the Chinese so far. The half-trillion-dollar semiconductor supply chain is one of the world’s most complex. The production of a single advanced computer chip requires more than 1,000 steps passing through international borders 70 or more times before reaching an end customer.

Within the seven sectors of semiconductor supply chain (R&D, Design, EDA/Core IP, FAB, SME, ATP and Materials), Assembly, Testing and Packaging (ATP) is the most cost and labor intensive with the lowest technical expertise barrier of entry. This is where Taiwan is the strongest and, not surprisingly, where China has made its greatest advancement.

However, China has low, minimal, or no capabilities in SME, EDA, Core IP, some fab materials (especially photoresists), leading-edge logic fab capacity, lithography tools (most importantly, extreme ultraviolet scanners and argon fluoride immersion scanners), process control tools, testing tools, atomic layer etch, wafer and mask handling tools, advanced deposition tools, and some ion implanters. Even Taiwan’s mighty TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung have to depend on USA, Japan and EU for those.

[ifrah]

The CCP does have tremendous resources. However, it is not bottomless. Case in point, the major factor cited by the CCP in canceling the development of Types 004, 005, 006 and 007 aircraft carriers was slowing economy. Basically, aircraft carriers cost too much even for the CCP bottomless cache of money.

The second major factor cited was technical issues. In essence China ran into a dead end with their salt water reactor research. Which showed that the CCP can only go so far by copying 1980's Soviet technology. The transition from diesel & steam to nuclear powered is currently too steep of a leap for China’s Navy. Money and copied technology could only carry China’s aircraft carrier development so far.

Construction of the first Type 003 is reportedly fairly advanced, but its entry into service is currently delayed to at least 2030 by difficulties in developing the electromagnetic catapult launch system (another piece of copied technology) critical to its functionality. Meanwhile both the Liaoning and Shandong are good for bullying the Philippine and Vietnam navies. However, with their lack of anti submarine, torpedo and missile defense systems, against any modern naval force they are basically floating coffins.

Buying Taiwanese expertise to advance their semiconductor industry will only take the Chinese so far. The half-trillion-dollar semiconductor supply chain is one of the world’s most complex. The production of a single advanced computer chip requires more than 1,000 steps passing through international borders 70 or more times before reaching an end customer.

Within the seven sectors of semiconductor supply chain (R&D, Design, EDA/Core IP, FAB, SME, ATP and Materials), Assembly, Testing and Packaging (ATP) is the most cost and labor intensive with the lowest technical expertise barrier of entry. This is where Taiwan is the strongest and, not surprisingly, where China has made its greatest advancement.

However, China has low, minimal, or no capabilities in SME, EDA, Core IP, some fab materials (especially photoresists), leading-edge logic fab capacity, lithography tools (most importantly, extreme ultraviolet scanners and argon fluoride immersion scanners), process control tools, testing tools, atomic layer etch, wafer and mask handling tools, advanced deposition tools, and some ion implanters. Even Taiwan’s mighty TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung have to depend on USA, Japan and EU for those.

Well said, and I haven't been much, if at all, on map regarding those aircraft carrier developments except that the China-friendly medias in the region do have quite rosy views obviously.
Semiconductor industry all in all is not my expertise, have not been inside it so I rely on other people and/or sources to give concrete data on that. The point I was trying to convey was that while they are, and for the foreseeable future will be, miles back from the top tier technology, they can and will take by their usual toolkit whatever there is. Where it will eventually take each of the competitiors, don't know. Regardless, unless giving in sounds appealing, one can only hope the hard stance on this side at least will not falter.

[Easo]

More fun stuff aka bullying tactics:

Taiwan has said a record number of Chinese military jets flew into its air defence zone on Monday.

The defence ministry said 25 aircraft including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers entered its so-called air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Monday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56728072

[Kokolums]

China is a huge cohesive nation with nukes. At best you could try to subvert them and destabilize their government but ... they have nukes. Destabilizing nuclear-armed nations is a shitty plan.

[Ihavewaffles]

More fun stuff aka bullying tactics:



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56728072

technically not as taiwan legally belongs to china.

[LilSaihah]

technically not as taiwan legally belongs to china.

More technically accurate to say that China legally belongs to Taiwan.

[Easo]

technically not as taiwan legally belongs to china.

Waffles... Hate to break it to you but the "technically correct is the best kind of correct" does not apply there. Taiwan de facto is independent country, with majority of it's population in support of that, which closes the topic straight away.

More technically accurate to say that China legally belongs to Taiwan.

Funny, but true. Mind you, not possible nor actually wanted, but true.

[Rasulis]

More fun stuff aka bullying tactics:



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56728072

The foremost question is how good are those Chinese fighter pilots?

How the Chinese Air Force Lost a War Game To This Fighter Jet
And it was no F-35 or F-22.

A 2015 war game in Thailand underscored the enduring flaws in Chinese aerial-warfare tactics. Despite flying a modern fighter type, Chinese fighter pilots in Thailand were vulnerable to long-range attacks and slow to react to aggressive tactics.

Exercise Falcon Strike 2015, which ran at Korat Royal Thai Air Force Base for two weeks in mid-November 2015, was the first-ever joint exercise between the Chinese and Thai air forces.

The Chinese brought J-11 fighters to the war game. The Thai air force operates F-16s from Korat, but the for the war game the Thai air arm sent Gripen fighters from Surat Thani Air Force Base.

The Thai air force operates 12 JAS-39C/D Gripens.

For seven days straight the J-11s tangled with the Gripens. The J-11, which is a Chinese variant of the Russian Su-27, proved to be the superior dogfighter, a Chinese participant in the exercise explained in a presentation at China’s Northwestern Polytechnical University on Dec. 9, 2019. But in Thai hands the Gripen was a better long-range shooter.

During the first day of mock combat, the J-11s and Gripens fought visual-range battles. The result was a lopsided victory for the Chinese air force. The powerful, twin-engine J-11s with their internal cannons and infrared-guided short-range missiles -- possibly PL-8s -- “shot down” 16 Gripens for zero losses.

In Thai service, the single-engine Gripen for close-range combat is armed with AIM-9 infrared-guided missiles and an internal cannon. It’s worth noting that the Gripen has a relatively poor thrust-to-weight ratio compared to many other fighter types. That limits its maneuverability in dogfights.

The Chinese pilots scored nine kills for one loss on day two. But as the war game continued, the Chinese pilots struggled to repeat their early successes.

The exercise shifted to beyond-visual-range engagements, where the Gripen armed with AIM-120 medium-range missiles proved to be the better fighter than the J-11 with its own medium-range missiles, possibly PL-12s.

On day three, the Thai pilots “shot down” 19 J-11s for a loss of three Gripens. Over the final three days of the war game, the Thais killed 22 Chinese jets and lost three of their own. The final tally for the exercise favored the Thai air force. The Gripens shot down 42 J-11s while the J-11s shot down just 34 Gripens.

Overall, 88 percent of the Thais’ kills occurred at a range of at least 19 miles, while the Chinese scored just 14 percent of their kills at the same range. The Gripens scored 10 kills at a distance of more than 31 miles. The J-11s scored no kills at this range.

Basically, the more advanced Chinese fighter aircrafts were beaten by the cheaper Swedish fighter jets of the Thai Air force.

"Numerous professional articles and speeches by high-ranking Chinese officers indicate the [Chinese air force] does not believe that its past training practices prepared its pilots and other personnel for actual combat,” the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency explained in its January 2019 report on the Chinese military. “Unrealistic training manifested itself in multiple ways that hindered the [Chinese air arm]’s air-combat capabilities."

The Chinese military "recognizes that a gap exists between the skills of its pilots and those in 'the air forces of powerful nations," the DIA continued in its report. "To address training weak*nesses, [a former air force] commander said that when the [air force] trains, it must 'train for battle' instead of 'doing things for show…[or] going through the motions.'"

Here is a slide from Li Zhonghua, who participated in Exercise Falcon Strike 2015 in Thailand, presentation at China’s Northwestern Polytechnical University. The more powerful Chinese aircrafts dominated the first 2 days (kill ratio 16 - 0 and 9 - 1). However, the Thai dominated the remaining 4 days.

[Thekri]

Well said, and I haven't been much, if at all, on map regarding those aircraft carrier developments except that the China-friendly medias in the region do have quite rosy views obviously.

In regard to the carrier development, it is a pretty steep uphill climb for China. Not knocking the tremendously talented people they have working on it, but they are playing 80+ years of catch up in this technology, with no experience in their construction, deployment, or utilization. Without previous generations of carrier pilots to train them, this is a tough project indeed, and they are trying to do as much as possible in house, which means new aircraft designs, etc.

This is were China's tactics of copying come in to play. The vast majority of China's military hardware is a blatant knockoff of someone else's stuff, but they don't have the capabilities to use them in their original capacity. The plan is to use the copied stuff as a baseline, and jumpstart into their original creations, but that is a hard leap to make, and they haven't been that successful at it. Of the two carriers they have, the Liaonang is the Riga which is a Adm. Kustnesov class Soviet Carrier. A Chinese businessman bought it for the PRC under the guise of turning it into an amusement park, and there was a whole charade going on for a few years as they refitted it into a functional aircraft carrier. Their second carrier, the Shandong is basically a copy paste of the Liaonang/Riga. It appears to be an almost bolt for bolt rebuild of the original, but it is Chinese built. The goal was probably to develop their shipbuilding capabilities, as neither ship is particularly capable in combat. The Liaonang is being used as a training ship, to try to develop pilot and crew skills for future carriers. The Shandong is... nobody really knows. It apparently had major issues during shakedown cruises, and has been in a cycle of sea trials and drydock time for the last 5 years. It is allegedly operational, but it isn't actually doing operational things.

[Hellobolis]

it's much too late to do anything about china. all you can do now is sign mutual defense treaties with the surrounding countries and try to box them in as much as possible while at the same time try to prevent them from establishing foreign military bases themselves. but it's also already too late for that.

they'll probably annex taiwan within the next decade, and then they have a straight and easy path into the pacific ocean, and then the US is just one artificial island/naval base away from having Chinese warships regularly sailing 12 miles of their coast. By that time silk road will have several military bases along it's route too and their infuence in africa will start to pay dividends. they are also kinda boxing india in with military bases too.

who could have foreseen that investing in a stable regime, infrastructure, industry and education for the sake of cheap labor for over 50 years had consequences?

ofcourse china is still the factory of the world which causes mutual economic dependence, and even with some parts of that moving to other areas, it's enough to keep any large scale conflicts at bay. by the time enough of that has moved away the quality of life in china will be high enough that they have too much too lose with large conflicts, just like us.

[Easo]

The foremost question is how good are those Chinese fighter pilots?

I have never taken seriously reports about such competitions. The same style of crap like "A single Swedish submarine sunk the whole US Navy task force!"
PRC pilots definitely should be capable overall and there are a lot of them. Taiwan has no chance alone.

[Ihavewaffles]

Don't think there's anything u can do, op

[Rasulis]

Don't think there's anything u can do, op

Obviously we could do something about it. In fact we are doing something about it.

Huawei is a perfect example of that. After a decade of 19% annual growth, last year it fell to 3% due to US technology sanctions. China was the only region where Huawei revenue grew last year. It’s telecom division, the flagship of Huawei, grew an anemic 0.3%. Without access to Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools, the US controlled 96% of the market, its R&D division is at a dead end with chip development. It is locked out of 5G market in US, Canada, Australia and EU. Which basically meant that China is locked out of the global 5G market. Those sanctions now have been extended to dozens of China’s tech companies.

As for the much vaunted Chinese manufacturing, Apple iPhone 12 made for a good case study. Since 2016, Apple has moved 30% of it’s iPhone assembly lines out of China. Back when Apple started assembling iPhones in China, around 40% of its parts were manufactured in China. Only 4.6% of iPhone 12 parts were made in China. An order of magnitude decrease which reflects China’s advance manufacturing sector failure in keeping up with the US, EU, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Keep in mind, we do not need to decouple completely from China. We only need to diversify our global supply chain. Slowing China's technological development and growing military might are bonuses.

BTW, Apple not assembling iPhone in the US is really a good thing.

Air pollution in China’s ‘iPhone city’ blamed on iPhone 12 production

[Kellhound]

I have never taken seriously reports about such competitions. The same style of crap like "A single Swedish submarine sunk the whole US Navy task force!"
PRC pilots definitely should be capable overall and there are a lot of them. Taiwan has no chance alone.

The US cannot afford to let China win a war for Taiwan.

[Rasulis]

The US cannot afford to let China win a war for Taiwan.

I doubt the US will. They will lose their global standing if they let China take over Taiwan by force.

Since Biden took over, US destroyers have travelled through the Taiwanese Strait at least a dozen times. German, UK, France and Lithuanian warships have also done the same. Something that has not been seen since 2002. They are basically sending a message to Xi Jinping.

The South China Sea is a busy place right now with two US carrier groups and China’s Liaoning Carrier Strike Group (CSG) maneuvering through the Miyako Strait on Sunday, just southwest of Okinawa, while being shadowed by a U.S. Navy Alreigh Burke class destroyer as it headed west towards the South China Sea.

Update: On top of the two US carrier groups and China's fleet and the the EU warships, a Japanese destroyer that was shadowing the Liaoning is now also in the South China Sea. India, despite China's protest, also has a warship there. By summer, after its maiden voyage, the HMS Elizabeth will be deployed in the South China Sea. So there will be three western carrier groups in the South China Sea.

At the same time that China is conducting their military exercise, the US is doing joint naval exercise with the Philippines. The Philippine's military been flying their jets pretty low over the supposed Chinese fishing fleet. Pretty chaotic there right now.





- - - Updated - - -

It looks like we are witnessing the rapid militarization of south east Asia countries in response to China.

Malaysia, Vietnam Set to Pen Agreement on Maritime Security

Indonesia, Japan on verge of record gunboat deal

Meet South Korea's New KF-21 "Hawk" Indigenous Fighter

Indonesian Navy Starts Building Marine Combat Force Command Headquarters in Natuna

In 2020, the US arm sales to Taiwan exceeded 5 billion - thousands of short, medium and long range missiles and torpedoes, advanced drones and radar system, communication systems. Those missiles and torpedoes are probably of the utmost concerns to the Chinese. The US also sold patrol gunships to the Vietnamese Navy.

[Corvus]

With China being hyper-aggressive towards, well, everyone, is it little wonder it's neighbours get nervous and start to beef up their defences and start looking towards working together?

[Rasulis]

Canadian's HMCS Calgary is also now in the area passing by the disputed Spratly Islands while traveling between Brunei and Vietnam.

Out of all the weapons that the US sold to Taiwan in 2020, the 400 RGM-84L-4 Harpoon Block II Surface Launched Missiles pissed off China the most. Those are subsonic missiles that China has no defense against. They can be launched from 100 mobile Harpoon Coastal Defense System Launcher Transporter Units which were included in the sale.

[Kellhound]

Canadian's HMCS Calgary is also now in the area passing by the disputed Spratly Islands while traveling between Brunei and Vietnam.

Out of all the weapons that the US sold to Taiwan in 2020, the 400 RGM-84L-4 Harpoon Block II Surface Launched Missiles pissed off China the most. Those are supersonic missiles that China has no defense against. They can be launched from 100 mobile Harpoon Coastal Defense System Launcher Transporter Units which were included in the sale.

Harpoons are subsonic. The ROC made Hsiung Feng IIIs are supersonic.

[Rasulis]

Harpoons are subsonic. The ROC made Hsiung Feng IIIs are supersonic.

Corrected.

There is a lot more cooperation between nations also.

France will be joining Japan/US military exercise in May. That's a first.

A joint Japan/US/Indonesia military exercise is planned for this year.

The US will placing missile batteries on Okinawa, Philippine and Taiwan. Pending approval of the requested 27 billion dollar funding. Which should get through Congress.

The other dilemma for China is what to do about Guam. The US long-range heavy bomber squad stationed there is a major threat. The B-52s have 8,000 miles range without refueling while carrying 24 long-range guided missiles that could be launched well out of the terminal range of China's defense system. With all the land based radar facilities on Japan, Taiwan and the Phillippine, plus the ship/AWAC radar system, the US has a very good targeting system set up in the South China Sea. Accurate enough to even hit moving targets like warships.