Czechia Expels Russian Diplomats Over Explosion

[Milchshake]

Czechia expels 18 diplomats after discovering that the GRU's were behind the explosions at Czech factories in 2014. After six years of investigating the blast.
MAkes you wonder, how much aggression will other countries tolerate?

Evidence links the 2014 explosion, and an attempted poisoning in Bulgaria, to a unit of Russian military intelligence - the GRU - the BBC has learnt.
European intelligence agencies believe the GRU's Unit 29155 is tasked with sabotage, subversion and assassination.
The Russian government said the claims were unfounded and absurd.

Czech authorities say they are expelling 18 Russian diplomats believed to be intelligence operatives in retaliation for the explosion, which killed two people.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said the country had to react to revelations tying the blast to the GRU.
The country will inform Nato and European Union allies about its suspicions, and will discuss the matter at an EU foreign ministers' meeting on Monday, its acting Foreign Minister Jan Hamacek said.

In fact, Czech nattional police are certain that Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepiga were behind the explosion of 50 tons of ammo that left two Czech citizens dead in 2014.
Národní centrála proti organizovanému zločinu SKPV, žádá v souvislosti s prověřováním okolností závažné trestné činnosti o pomoc při pátrání po dvou osobách

According to police, the two spire-chasers arrived in Prague on 13 October 2014 and left via Austria on October 16. They had declared an intent to visit Vrbětice - where the ammo plant is located. The explosion in ammunition depot No. 16 occurred on October 16 at 9:25.

The spire chasers were also spotted in Bulgaria during the time of explosions and exotic poisonings.

The Dreadful Eight: GRU's Unit 29155 and the 2015 Poisoning of Emilian Gebrev

That time that the GRU assassins bragged about what they did.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/russ...lingcat-poison

[Corvus]

The explosion is meant to have taken place at a place where weapons and ammo were stored. It was being sent to Ukraine during the fighting against Russia by a Bulgarian businessman who was subsequently poisoned in a manner suspiciously similar to Skripal.

The Czech authorities had hit a dead end until they realised the two wanted for the poisoning of Skripal in the UK were the same two who had been there at the time of the explosion too.

[Fugus]

Makes you wonder how much longer till the rest of the globe get tired of it and actually deal with them. Isolating them isn't enough when they commit acts of war on your own soil.

[Kaleredar]

Makes you wonder how much longer till the rest of the globe get tired of it and actually deal with them. Isolating them isn't enough when they commit acts of war on your own soil.

I think placing economic and geopolitical pressures on Russia is the only real way to go, though. Armed conflict and escalation is neither tenable nor desirable for a number of obvious reasons.

As cynical as it might sound, once you can effectively place a strain on the oligarchs of Russia, you’ll start to see a change in their national disposition. Either that or begin to economically hamper their people to such a degree that the populace begins to demand change within their governance. I think a fairly obvious solution would be for Russia to focus on improving itself as a country rather than try to make itself seem better by engaging in subterfuge to bring other countries closer down to its level.

Obviously placing your average Russian citizen in dire economic straits isn’t good. And I’d think the Russian government should be somewhat cognizant of that, given the fact that their country effectively fell apart twice due in no small part to that exact reason over roughly the last 100 years.

[Fugus]

I think placing economic and geopolitical pressures on Russia is the only real way to go, though. Armed conflict and escalation is neither tenable nor desirable for a number of obvious reasons.

As cynical as it might sound, once you can effectively place a strain on the oligarchs of Russia, you’ll start to see a change in their national disposition. Either that or begin to economically hamper their people to such a degree that the populace begins to demand change within their governance. I think a fairly obvious solution would be for Russia to focus on improving itself as a country rather than try to make itself seem better by engaging in subterfuge to bring other countries closer down to its level.

Obviously placing your average Russian citizen in dire economic straits isn’t good. And I’d think the Russian government should be somewhat cognizant of that, given the fact that their country effectively fell apart twice due in no small part to that exact reason over roughly the last 100 years.

Armed conflict should never be desirable but when the alternative is to largely let murders and attacks on your nation largely unpunished, the alternatives get harder and harder to justify with out sounding like one of those people saying "We have tried everything and we are out of ideas".

Sanctioning them hasn't largely changed their mindset given that the ones at the top are largely insulated from the direct impact of that until the torches and pitchforks come out which they can also violently suppress. Which makes it take MUCH more of it before they actually start fearing enough to make that change.

Sending the armed forces to kick them out of Crimea would be a start. Sanctioning them and their oligarchs with the knowledge that they WILL be arrested and charged should they leave the protection of Russia, banning all travel to and from Russia for American and European citizens and refusing to deal with any company that deals with them. THAT would actually get a response from them some.

But until they fear those boots on the ground or an uprising among their own citizens that they can't put down, what reason do they have to care? So what if Russia itself largely fell in the near future due to their actions, so long they and their kids and flee with the money to greener pastures, they have little to nothing to fear. Same thing I think McConnell thinks sometimes since he is rich with a multimillionaire family in Japan, he can screw the nation and laugh all the way to the bank.

[Milchshake]

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will expel several Russian diplomats and embassy employees in solidarity with Prague.

On Twitter, the Estonian Foreign Ministry said its single expulsion was related to the the 2014 explosion, saying it “violates international law, undermines European security & stability and is unacceptable.” Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said that Latvia has decided to expel a Russian diplomat because the country “will not tolerate subversive activities on its soil or that of its partners and allies.”

On Thursday, the Czech Republic ordered 63 more Russian diplomats to leave the country after previously expelling 18 whom it had identified as spies in a case related to the huge blast.

I wonder if the rest of Europe will follow suit.

Also makes a person wonder, does Russia really have diplomats?

[Easo]

I wonder if the rest of Europe will follow suit.

Also makes a person wonder, does Russia really have diplomats?

The call is for that, seems likely at this point.

Dunno, the military attaché to Latvia was filmed throwing a party (not allowed under quarantine rules), showing middle finger to people filming that and of course telling the cops to go away (because diplomatic immunity). So I would say some are... not.
He is also now the guy going bye bye:

[Mihalik]

Completely isolating Russia diplomatically is a bad idea I feel.

We must keep lines of communication open with it.

Nevertheless, having Russian "diplomats" blowing up munitions factories and poisoning dissidents on your soil is going to be a no go.

So Russian "diplomats" that aren't really diplomats ought to be booted.

Beyond that I think it's time Russia is hit somewhere where it actually hurts, restricting Russian banks from accessing international financial markets would be a good first step.

Furthermore there ought to be much more severe restrictions on Russians being able to spend money outside Russia.

No more buying real estate in NY, London and Ibiza, no more yachts, no more sending your kids to study at Oxford and Stanford etc.

[Fugus]

@Mihalik

They need to be isolated at this point because they are waging war on the globe trying to burn as much down as possible so they can gain more power for themselves.

Their diplomats aren’t really diplomats at this point, they are enemy combatants with diplomatic immunity and that is how they are acting.

At this point, the world as a whole needs to turn on them and hold them accountable. Kicking their people out and sanctions should be the tip of the iceberg.

I know they have nukes but we can’t let them be toxic and a bully because of it. They are literally killing people of foreign soil, blowing up foreign buildings and trying to incite violence and overthrow governments that they dislike and came very close to succeeding with the US.

They need to be held accountable for it otherwise you are rewarding and enabling them to continue doing it because they aren’t facing consequences for it.

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At this point, I would say to kick their people out, and block access to all markets and ban all companies from dealing with them unless they want to be kicked out of the rest of the global market.

And I would move troops around their border from the US and every other nation they attacked and waged war with at this point and dare them to try anything and I would force them to give up Crimea.

Would also make it where if their upper people leave Russia, they WILL be arrested and face charges.

Would also make it where if they kill anyone else on foreign soil or attack another building, those troops will be crossing those borders and they know they can’t stand against an attack against all they have attacked at this point. Especially if we keep getting more about their hand in the Brexit stuff.

[Bakis]

So who will Russia poison now, the diplomats for "getting expelled" or the czechs?

[Santti]

I see the talking points are still being formulated on the Russian side. The #1 shill isn't here yet. The one with the turnips.

[Ripster42]

I see the talking points are still being formulated on the Russian side. The #1 shill isn't here yet. The one with the turnips.

Not going to lie, I've always been curious what happened to cryban. Think that dude's checks stopped coming?

[Calfredd]

Not going to lie, I've always been curious what happened to cryban. Think that dude's checks stopped coming?

Got himself permabanned back in 2017.

[Mihalik]

sip.

The issue with completely isolating a country is that they have a tendency to turn further inwards and to further adopt the whole attitude of "The whole world is against us".

We have seen that with North Korea, Iran and to a lesser degree with Cuba and Venezuela.

Complete international isolation only ever worked once with Apartheid South Africa, and there it only really worked due to the fact that it was caught between heavy internal pressure from the majority of the population combined with heavy external pressure.

Those conditions do not seem to exist in places like Iran, North Korea and Russia. And Russians are predisposed to the whole "the devil you know" attitude, and if completely isolated are likely to rally around Putin.

Selectively targeting the economy, especially areas like the financial sector, energy sector and the oligarchs is a much better option as nothing riles up a mob boss more than taking away his money. And that's what Russia is, a country run by mob bosses.

There has to be a balance tho, between not overdoing things and giving Russia a way out and exercising pressure.

Imagine a Russia that has the same approach to international relations as North Korea. Now remember, the Russians can in fact blow up the planet, unlike North Korea. A nuclear conflict with Russia would be a global event, not just it nuking its neighbors.

I think the ship on Russia returning Crimea and Donbas has sailed. Russia has invested too much political, financial and military capital in this venture for them to give it up. Any Russian government that would do that would immediately collapse and in all likelihood be replaced by a worse one.

What's done is done. Of course Russia should face repercussions, diplomatic and economic, but our best bet would be silently accepting the territorial losses in Ukraine (well, Ukraine has to) and focus on containment. That means NATO membership for Ukraine (within its current territory) and Georgia. Making it absolutely clear that any further incursions into those countries would be an act of war on NATO.

And making of the lifting of economic sanctions conditional on Russia clearly abandoning the notion of "Russian sphere of influence".

The Russian Sphere of Influence ends at the Russian border. No more killings of dissidents, no more Little Green Men, no more Bomber flyovers, no more threats of military interventions and especially no more invasions.

Future Russian interventions in places like Armenia and Azerbaijan need to happen within the framework of the UN and the Un security council.

If Russia is willing to do this, then we can start normalizing our relationship with it again.

[CostinR]

The Russian Sphere of Influence ends at the Russian border. No more killings of dissidents, no more Little Green Men, no more Bomber flyovers, no more threats of military interventions and especially no more invasions.

Future Russian interventions in places like Armenia and Azerbaijan need to happen within the framework of the UN and the Un security council.

If Russia is willing to do this, then we can start normalizing our relationship with it again.

Bloody hell. The arrogance of this statement is beyond incredible. Russia gets to decide how it conducts it's foreign policy, they have a vote on this issue and they don't care for full western integration or normalization, if they did they'd act differently.

Isolating them diplomatically, as some people suggest, does not work, the only country in the world that is even remotely close to that is North Korea, and they are the exception and it sure as hell hasn't changed their behavior. Economic isolation is also not feasible since we are still in the worst economic crisis in over a century and cutting ourselves off from Russia's economy would be incredibly costly. We could make Russia pay an enormous price, but so we would we and if you think there's any political will given the many fragile coalitions in European capitals to pay that kind of price you haven't been paying attention.

Bomber flights are a normal and acceptable practice, the US does it after all, Green Men and their push for regional influence especially in non-EU, non-NATO countries is something we accept because we don't have any obligation to Ukraine or Georgia, and nor should we: NATO membership is a privilege for which member countries worked really hard for a lot years, something Ukraine has not demonstrated. Georgia? They've done reforms sure, but they were also dumb enough to invade South Ossetia.

If a vote came up in the US Senate for either Georgia or Ukraine to join NATO it likely would fail, and that's the US let alone other member states.

As for Armenian and Azerbaijan, Russia did not intervene. They helped establish a ceasefire with peacekeepers with support from Armenia and Azerbaijan. The UN and the Security Council? This isn't 2010. That boat sailed a decade ago after Libya. ( No China and Russia are not happy how NATO used a UN No-Fly Zone to enact regime change ).

The Russian poisonings and as we find out bombing in Europe are outrageous. That's where we draw the line, and Europe did make it clear they would not tolerate that kind of stuff any more...and well the GRU director died in 2018. The GRU was responsible for those poisonings.

There's a view in the west that we can dictate to Russia or other countries how they behave. Such a view is widely held in the Washington Foreign Policy Blob. Maybe the west had such power on September 10th 2001, it no longer does, not after the two major economic crises and four failed wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria.

[Fugus]

@Mihalik

Dude, you don’t let someone kill and destroy stuff and talk about letting them keep their ill gotten gains hoping to normalize relations.

At that point all you did was normalize their behavior and rewarded them for their actions with a perverse incentive to do it again if the situation allows because the blowback is minor because those who decide that have no spine.

You are basically asking that we bow to a violent group in the hopes that it stops them from being more violent like those people talking about how we should let Trump steal the election otherwise their supporters would get violent and we didn’t want that.

Rewarding that behavior is the exact last thing we want. The proper results is to have all of those they have attacked at their border and daring them to push this envelope further and taking their stolen property from them and targeting those in charge and make them unable to leave and fearful that if they push it, THEY personally will be at risk.

[Ivanstone]

The issue with completely isolating a country is that they have a tendency to turn further inwards and to further adopt the whole attitude of "The whole world is against us".

We have seen that with North Korea, Iran and to a lesser degree with Cuba and Venezuela.

North Korea has nothing to sell and is nothing more than a minefield propped up by China.
Cuba isn't radically different but enough people tolerate them that it doesn't matter. Only America seems to genuinely hate them.
Iran and Venezuala are small potatoes. Sure they irritate they hell out of their neighbours but if they became nicer countries over night they would still be small potatoes.

Russia is something else. Its gigantic and needs to move its exports. No one can really prop them up. The wealthy within Russia want more and sanctions do hurt them. Can you think of a single billionaire from Cuba, Venezuala, Iran or North Korea?

[Mihalik]

Russia is something else. Its gigantic and needs to move its exports. No one can really prop them up. The wealthy within Russia want more and sanctions do hurt them. Can you think of a single billionaire from Cuba, Venezuala, Iran or North Korea?

That's exactly the point. Pressure needs to be exercised to convince them that starting to act like a normal country is in their best interest. We could never really fully isolate Russia. Asia wouldn't go along with it. They'd just pivot harder towards China and India.

Carrot and sticks.

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taking their stolen property from them

You do understand that you can't take fuckall from Russia without risking global nuclear armageddon. The only way you'll ever force Russia to give up Crimea and Donbass is if you eject them by military force. Nobody in his right mind should ever consider that option seriously.

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Bloody hell. The arrogance of this statement is beyond incredible. Russia gets to decide how it conducts it's foreign policy, they have a vote on this issue and they don't care for full western integration or normalization, if they did they'd act differently.

No. Russia has proved itself that it cannot be trusted as a rational actor on the international stage. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. These constant games of threatening war in Europe has end. Russia needs to be made to stop.

[Fugus]

You do understand that you can't take fuckall from Russia without risking global nuclear armageddon. The only way you'll ever force Russia to give up Crimea and Donbass is if you eject them by military force. Nobody in his right mind should ever consider that option seriously.

Then we need troops at the borders and them knowing that that is a conflict they won’t win.

The next alternative is to start using their tactics and start killing their generals, oligarchs, leaders, and going for their families as well. As heartless as it sounds, if you say the other approach is mutually assured destruction than this becomes the only VIABLE option left as letting them get rewarded for it and expecting them to honor anything with a group that has proven themselves limped dick pansies who are too afraid of their stock pile to do anything about them.

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Sorry, let me rephrase that a bit.

Letting Russia slide because they got nukes after all they have done is out of the question, they need to face consequences.

Letting them keep what they have stolen is out of the question and costing them that is a baseline of what any response should be.

Going after them and isolating them economically is a given at this point. But honestly isn’t enough, those in power need to feel it personally and feel a risk to themselves as well.

They literally committed acts of war against multiple nations with murder and destruction of property. They should fear reprisal in kind. Even if that means other nations using their tactics against them and instead of going after opposition leaders and journalists, they go after Russia’s leaders and those around them. Have them fear for themselves.

But regardless of what form that conflict takes, there will be a conflict unless you really want to bow to what’s effectively a terrorist out of fear of what else they will take from you if they don’t.

[Shalcker]

The next alternative is to start using their tactics and start killing their generals, oligarchs, leaders, and going for their families as well. As heartless as it sounds, if you say the other approach is mutually assured destruction than this becomes the only VIABLE option left as letting them get rewarded for it and expecting them to honor anything with a group that has proven themselves limped dick pansies who are too afraid of their stock pile to do anything about them.

You do realize Russia is just as capable of doing that, right? And if you think that will not trigger WW3/MAD why wouldn't they respond in kind?

How many leaders/generals/oligarchs can you really "trade" in such conflict?