Great Vault, Random? No Way

[Duroga]

What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


What a coincidence. What are the odds?

[Wuusah]

RNG will be RNG. You might be right in the center of the bell curve like most players and have a decent experience or you might be right at the edge and get the worst rewards possible

[Progenitor Aquarius]

It’s interesting. I play only one character only and every week an item drops that I actually need for my current spec. It’s like the game wanted me to play Arcane. Every week I get best in slot items. What I do is to clear heroic raid and do 10 mythic + 15 dungeons every week. Sometimes I think I’m lucky as hell or that it isn’t random at all. Today is again best in slot shoulders, best in slot chest! I love this game!

[Rogfaroth]

Assuming just 2% of the players who experience this has a user on this forum and would be likely to make a post about it, we get a post like yours. Yes the odds are small but that does not mean it can't happen. Random is random.

[Kwaizar]

it is nonsense - ive had an offering of the same ring 6 times in a row - what utter crap- when the vault can offer me 3 slots to upgrade and never ever has

[Kumorii]

Random is random. Any sequence is equally likely to happen.

bracers, bracers, bracers
is equally likely to
bracer, legs, shoulders.

It's just that you don't perceive first one to be random, it's human error.

[Loveliest]

Yeah I don't think they're random either. I think some items have a much higher chance of dropping than others. I also think some weeks favour some keys specifically. I watch a paladin tank's youtube channel (I'm also pala tank) and he shows his chest opening every week and the majority of time we have the same options. I have also seen the exact same chest armour 3 times and stuff like that. I could still use items in about 5 slots (which is quite a lot), but I have never gotten an item for those slots in this whole season. In the last month or so I have chosen the currency option because there is nothing I can choose that I don't already have. Last item I got was the same ring that was 226 instead of my very old 223.
Blizzard has been known to manipulate "luck" in many instances so I have no doubt that the drops do not have an equal chance. Even in raids, some items have a higher chance to drop while others have a lower one (like weapon tokens - they mentioned increasing their respective drop chance in a patch).

- - - Updated - - -

Random is random. Any sequence is equally likely to happen.

bracers, bracers, bracers
is equally likely to
bracer, legs, shoulders.

It's just that you don't perceive first one to be random, it's human error.

Nowhere has Blizzard stated that every slot has the same chance to drop. Only that items drop from a specific pool.
Also, btw, the chance of rolling the same number twice in a row is not the same as rolling different numbers. For example, if you have 10 slots to roll for:
1. first time you have equal chance to get each, which is 1/10; say you get wrists
2. second time, the chance to get wrists again is not 1/10; it's 1/10*1/10;

[Azerox]

Every vault i have opened had different items in it so its just coincidence.

[Cosmic Janitor]

I watch a paladin tank's youtube channel (I'm also pala tank) and he shows his chest opening every week and the majority of time we have the same options. I have also seen the exact same chest armour 3 times and stuff like that.

The guy that coded this shit must be a real sick fucker then, because my fire mage keeps getting crit gear...

[paxen]

Random is random, and that includes streaks. If you never see streaks, that's a good indication that something *isn't* random.

People hate true randomness, which is why developers often implement systems like "bad luck protection", or coding it so that streaks doesn't happen.

If you're getting unlucky and get streaks of useless items, that's a good indicator that the process truly is random.

[Nzx]

Also, btw, the chance of rolling the same number twice in a row is not the same as rolling different numbers. For example, if you have 10 slots to roll for:
1. first time you have equal chance to get each, which is 1/10; say you get wrists
2. second time, the chance to get wrists again is not 1/10; it's 1/10*1/10;

Hahaha what?

In your example the chance of getting wrists and then wrists is 1/10*1/10, the chance of getting wrists and then legs is also 1/10*1/10, same as the chance to get legs/legs, same as the chance to get helm/shoulders. Every time you open the chest you have the same percentage chance of getting wrists as you did the first time.

The chance of getting heads on your second coin flip does not increase or decrease based on what the first coin flip result was. You have a ~25% chance of having flipped any of the four possible outcomes (Heads/Heads, Heads/Tails, Tails/Heads, Tails/Tails), but the chance of flipping heads is still 50% every single time you flip the coin. Same thing with lottery numbers, 1/2/3/4/5/6/7 is exactly as likely to occur as 1/10/15/19/25/35/40, but if someone won with the first set of numbers I bet you'd call it rigged.

[thunderdragon2]

im at the verge of giving up on the vault on my alts as i just cant seem to get weapons and i don't like and am not good at pvp, im running out of upgrades to get for them my mains 224 so there's very little chance i will actually get a upgrade on him

the odds of my getting what i pieces i actually need on a couple of my alts are getting pretty low it's pretty much weapons and a few off set items

[Edward Wu]

I hate the design that The Vault seems to be the main gearing outlet for most people. It's really lame.

We got it through to the devs to "let loot be loot" now if we can just say to them "let upgrades drop from enemies" we're golden.

[Sunderella]

Today I opened my GV and got a 226 helmet piece to replace my 207 one. Before that, I had 4 weeks worth of worthless trinkets (worthless as in worst than what I had even if higher ilvl), repeated rings I already had, or 3ilvl upgrades.

Seems kinda random even if I get screwed for an entire month. However, (tinfoil hat on) I am sure Blizz would never let the carrot on a stick be totally random and surely they have some code to ensure the randomness never works on favor or does it so very occasionally.

[Kumorii]

Nowhere has Blizzard stated that every slot has the same chance to drop. Only that items drop from a specific pool.
Also, btw, the chance of rolling the same number twice in a row is not the same as rolling different numbers. For example, if you have 10 slots to roll for:
1. first time you have equal chance to get each, which is 1/10; say you get wrists
2. second time, the chance to get wrists again is not 1/10; it's 1/10*1/10;

Never claimed as such, merely explained what random is.

Also, you missinterpret what i said. I didn't say what you say I said.
What I said is exactly what I meant.

You are correct that rolling any other number other than the same one is higher, because when you roll a die and get 1.
the chance for getting any other number is 5/6. However, what I said is that the chance of getting 1,1,1 is the same as getting 1,3,2 as an example.

I used a specific sequence, not "any other number".
The chance of getting a 3 after the first roll is 1/6, same as it is getting a 1 after first roll, 1/6...
Getting a 1 on the third roll is 1/6, same as getting a 2 on the third roll, 1/6. etc etc...

However, thank you, because I think you demonstrated how people perceive randomness which was my point. As long as you DON'T get the same number in a row it's perceived as random even though that specific sequence you just got has the same likelihood as literally any other sequence.

I think mythbusters(maybe veritasium?) have touched on this as well, where they used examples where people try to say which sequence is random. People tend to pick the one that have numbers are all over the place rather than a sequence that have the same numbers 3-4 times in a row or more depending on how long it is. Also when humans create "random" sequences manually they try to avoid the same pitfalls, such as not putting the same number in a row, because it's not perceived as random.

Funny thing with randomness is that it appearing as random is also random.

[ellieg]

"I, 1 of a million or so characters, got an unlucky streak that happens about 1 out of 10,000 times." Ya it sucks its happening to you but that's perfectly normal

[Coolascancer]

I've had pretty damn good luck with the vault on my priest, i think i've only not gotten a legit upgrade 3 times, i have skipped a few weeks here and there also.

[Lolites]

randomness ALWAYS creates clusters like this... people always confuse randomness with regularity

[Kaver]

RNG will be RNG. You might be right in the center of the bell curve like most players and have a decent experience or you might be right at the edge and get the worst rewards possible

But can we be 100% certain that Blizzards random number generator isn't flawed in some ways?

[kukkamies]

Hahaha what?

In your example the chance of getting wrists and then wrists is 1/10*1/10, the chance of getting wrists and then legs is also 1/10*1/10, same as the chance to get legs/legs, same as the chance to get helm/shoulders. Every time you open the chest you have the same percentage chance of getting wrists as you did the first time.

The chance of getting heads on your second coin flip does not increase or decrease based on what the first coin flip result was. You have a ~25% chance of having flipped any of the four possible outcomes (Heads/Heads, Heads/Tails, Tails/Heads, Tails/Tails), but the chance of flipping heads is still 50% every single time you flip the coin. Same thing with lottery numbers, 1/2/3/4/5/6/7 is exactly as likely to occur as 1/10/15/19/25/35/40, but if someone won with the first set of numbers I bet you'd call it rigged.

One roll doesn't change the roll of next, but altogether it is different chances.

If there's 10 different possibilities then getting one item twice in a row is 1/10*1/10 as he says. Getting one wrists and one not wrists is 1/10*9/10. The chances are different to get 2 wrists or 1 wrist and one of something else. The next one is always 1/10 but two in a row it's different.

Pretty sure he means this one but just wrote it wrong. If it's that 10% chance each individual piece then 3 is 0.1% for a week. That 4 times is 0.0001%. It's still only 1 in 10k which is possible but pretty rare. I've had even one in a million happen to me. So to OP, this can still happen even with normal RNG.