The Ongoing 2020 Election: Maricopa County Recount

[Felya]

I have a question that I have yet to see answered... once they find these illegal ballots. Outside of all the Trump shit, what’s next?

We have a crime that is committed... will there be an investigation resulting from their findings? Is someone going to be accused?

What’s the jurisdiction if something criminal is found?

[Breccia]

there is no legal way this "recount" can be used to overturn the election result

Correct.

But it can and will allow lawmakers to pass substantial voter suppression, saying "Cyber Ninjas claim there was fraud, and I believe them".

This is already happening.

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We have a crime that is committed... will there be an investigation resulting from their findings? Is someone going to be accused?

This is a good question. If they find evidence that someone submitted a fraudulent ballot, yes that person is in trouble. But um...I don't know that they will subpoena a bamboo farm.

As a reminder, the theory seems to be that someone submitted a bunch of false ballots for Biden while, somehow, all those people in whose name the ballots were cast didn't vote. Considering the massive number of absentee or mailed ballots, this seems stupid risky. If even a handful of people in whose name you're fraudulently voting, actually really vote, you basically get instantly caught.

Maricopa County certified in two weeks. All five members voted to certify, four of them are Republicans. While there was no hand recount done, there was also no shown need.

The allegations of fraud, which are mostly vague and lack any specific accusations or evidence, center primarily around Maricopa County, a traditional conservative stronghold that has shown an increasing willingness to vote Democratic in the last few elections. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads Trump by nearly 45,000 votes in Maricopa County, which has about 60% of the state’s population.

State law requires counties to perform a hand count of ballots cast in at least 2% of all precincts or vote centers, as well as 1% of all early ballots, which make up the vast majority of votes in Arizona. Maricopa County has already completed that audit, hand-counting nearly 3,000 in-person votes and nearly 5,200 early ballots. Representatives of the county Democratic, Libertarian and Republican parties participated in the audit.

The results of the hand count showed a 100% match with the tally by Maricopa County’s voting machines.

“There is no evidence of systemic error in the ballot counting equipment in Maricopa County,” Moseley said.

Statistician here, so, this is about to get ugly. Biden won Maricopa by 1,040,774 votes to 995,655. That means Biden would have to illegally steal 22560 votes from Trump to win, or 2.1676% of Biden's votes have to be illegal.

If those 8,200 sampled votes split along election lines, there would therefore have to be 90 (on average) fraudulent votes for Biden cast in someone else's name, while the real voter did not really vote. Or, using something from the GOP playbook, Republicans accidentally gave their ballot to a Democrat who changed it, but then during the sample that wasn't caught either.

Ninety times.

Voter turnout in 2016 was 74.2% which is pretty high. The likelihood of 90 random people all failing a 74.2% chance to vote, are about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. So, no, that didn't happen.

Which means that the only realistic way this could have happened, is if the votes were intercepted and replaced. I suppose such a thing could go undiscovered, but only if the people looking at the sample didn't, you know, ask anyone about their ballot. "Did you vote for Biden, Mr. Registered Republican?" sounds like something that would have come up at least once. Plus, of course, the massive work needed to intercept and steal two dozen thousand votes, hundreds of times more than pretty much all other cases of voter fraud combined, and do so flawlessly.

Let's pretend, somehow, that happened.

And...they left evidence so obvious, that officials who counted the sample missed it ninety times, but the Cyber Ninjas will catch it enough times to say "statistically significant" accurately.

Yeah, no. The chance of two people each calling the same 8,200 coin flips, and one getting 90 or more right than the other, has a chance that's not that ridiculous, but still stupid low. Under 0.01%.

Even giving Cyber Ninjas a 90% likelihood of catching a fake, the AZ officials only 10%, and they stop after ten ballots found are all fakes -- the best possible odds I'm willing to even Hyperbolic Strawman -- there's only a 12.1% this happens. Realistically it should be far worse, because if there are really that many fakes, AZ would have caught a bunch of them when looking over thousands.

AZ found zero. They reported 100% matchup.

There is no realistic result in which there was massive fraud in Arizona, the Republicans on the board missed it by accident, but Cyber Ninjas will find it. Even accepting "Da Bearz" level of blind devotion to this conspiracy theory, there's not even one chance in eight Cyber Ninjas will be able to prove it.

And just so we're clear: if whoever it was that engineered this mythical ballot bamboo-zle, managed to hide a few percent difference while thousands of votes were checked, with no witnesses, no evidence, no nothing available to show for it -- then these guys won't find it with a UV light, a blue pen, and proven lack of knowledge of election rules or law.

It is possible for an honest person to roll an honest die and get a one four, six, eight or even ten times in a row. But at some point, if you see some guy rolling one's that many times in a row, you stop saying "that's amazing luck" and say "that guy is cheating".

[Paranoid Android]

The 2020 elections were run w/ integrity, the results certified by the county & state were accurate, & the 2 independent audits conducted by the County are the true final word on the subject. We know auditing. The Senate Cyber Ninja audit is not a real audit. #azsenateaudit

https://twitter.com/maricopacounty/s...513266177?s=19

Long thread if you want to continue reading.

Well the Orange Turd released a statement today again ranting about the election.

So as the release and just what is going on the Republican clerk who handles Maricopa County releasing this tweet.

Oh btw they are mentioning that this information has not been secured and passed around. Thus leading to voters information vulnerable to ID theft.

[Breccia]

So...how's it going, everyone?

Trump says the entire Database of Maricopa County has been DELETED, which is completely Strong Bad. That's both illegal and unPresidented.

"Wow! When did that happen?"

Oh, it didn't. But Trump says it did. Trump even said FOX News was too afraid to cover it, which as I've said before, is what I would say if I was trying to push a conspiracy theory. And he said something about ballot boxes being unsealed, which I have to guess what that means (I can barely speak Batshit Crazy enough to ask where the bathroom is) and my guess is "someone tried to tell him about Cyber Ninjas and he heard something different than the truth". And since Trump said "Thank you OANN" I'm pretty sure I'm right.

As this Washington Examiner story says, basically everyone in Arizona has refuted Trump's claim, and some are even openly pushing for a retraction. There is no known evidence even close to what Trump is suggesting. The AZ Senate has not said what Trump is saying, at most asking for answers for inconsistencies in the chain of evidence (which for all we know, means Cyber Ninjas fucked up). Cyber Ninjas, near as I can tell, isn't finished and has made no public statements that resemble Trump's, or more to the point, haven't presented any evidence that looks like what Trump is saying (they claimed fraud before the recount even started but had nothing to back it up at the time).

Near as I can find, this is the either the source of the misinformation or one of the first to broadcast it. A screenshot, posted under the Twitter handle "Maricopa Arizona Audit" and claiming something inflammatory but still less than what Trump said happened, four days ago. I think OANN saw this and chose to present it as if it was true, shown here three days ago, and I think Trump saw this and took the next illogical step of Strawmanning it today.

Trump is lying. That's nothing new.

Trump is lying and claiming he won the election. That's repugnant and anti-American, but also nothing new.

Trump is pushing a conspiracy theory that has no evidence, that he won the election. This is entering treasonous territory, but still nothing new.

Trump is watching a conspiracy theorist attack the election, and said "You know what this needs? Me to invent evidence that is beyond what even the conspiracy theorists have said, and push it as if it was true, on a forum I set up to push lies without fear of being corrected or banned". And that is new.

Trump proves yet again that he can dig through bedrock.

[Underbottom]

So did Cyber Ninjas get out of the convention center on time?

[Breccia]

AZ election board write this letter saying the recount is a sham, and they aren't going to help anymore.

They point out the laws broken by Cyber Ninjas, they point out the blatantly biased people in charge, they point out the unfounded/objectively false conspiracy theories, they use the term "laughingstock".

I will not be responding to any more requests from this sham process. Finish your audit and be ready to defend what you’re finding in a court of law

-- head of the board

[cubby]

AZ election board write this letter saying the recount is a sham, and they aren't going to help anymore.

They point out the laws broken by Cyber Ninjas, they point out the blatantly biased people in charge, they point out the unfounded/objectively false conspiracy theories, they use the term "laughingstock".

I will not be responding to any more requests from this sham process. Finish your audit and be ready to defend what you’re finding in a court of law

-- head of the board

Fuck, yes.

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https://twitter.com/maricopacounty/s...513266177?s=19

The 2020 elections were run w/ integrity, the results certified by the county & state were accurate, & the 2 independent audits conducted by the County are the true final word on the subject. We know auditing. The Senate Cyber Ninja audit is not a real audit. #azsenateaudit

Long thread if you want to continue reading.

Well the Orange Turd released a statement today again ranting about the election.

So as the release and just what is going on the Republican clerk who handles Maricopa County releasing this tweet.

Oh btw they are mentioning that this information has not been secured and passed around. Thus leading to voters information vulnerable to ID theft.

Also, fuck, yes. I love seeing legitimate members of the Republican Party shouting down their idiot members.

[Adam Jensen]

"I'm tired of hearing people say there was no fraud. It happened, it's real, and people better get wise fast"

Doug Logan is not wrong.

There was fraud.

I mean . . . it's all idiots voting for Trump multiple times . . . but *shrug*

Like this guy who voted for Trump under the name of his wife, who he allegedly murdered.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/0...newday-vpx.cnn

So the quest must be asked, how many of those 75 million Trump votes are legit?

The answer is . . . probably 75 million because voter fraud on both Republican and Democrat sides is hilariously insignificant.

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What's even more hilarious here is if the worst happens and somehow Arizona goes to Trump, he still loses the election

295 to 243 is STILL a loss to Joe Biden.

So why even bother? Just to stroke Trump's fucking ego? Literally the only purpose left in the GOP is stroking that man's ego. It's pathetic.

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Really, there should be a federal standard for recounts.

There should be a federal standard for elections.

Clearly the framers were wrong when they declared that the states were up to doing elections their own way because CLEARLY some states (looking at you Georgia) can't do it properly and fairly.

[Felya]

So why even bother? Just to stroke Trump's fucking ego? Literally the only purpose left in the GOP is stroking that man's ego. It's pathetic.

To end democracy... they can’t win the popular vote, so they gave up trying...

I think people either forget or don’t take into account, that this started all the way back in 2016. Not just in Trump building the case to scream corruption, but also launching an investigation in 2017. When Trump supporters claim he is playing 4D chess, they know that the end game is the end of democracy.

GOP simply cannot win a popular vote...

[Zan15]

AZ election board write this letter saying the recount is a sham, and they aren't going to help anymore.

They point out the laws broken by Cyber Ninjas, they point out the blatantly biased people in charge, they point out the unfounded/objectively false conspiracy theories, they use the term "laughingstock".


-- head of the board

WAIT you don't believe chickens ate the ballots in question???

[Edge-]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...csp=chromepush

Remember the AZ GOP making a huge deal out of the DELETED VOTING RECORDS FROM MARICOPA COUNTY WHO WERE CLEARLY TRYING TO HIDE SOMETHING!?

After making the copy, the Senate's contractors saw the missing directory and assumed that it was deleted. It appears the contractors might have just looked in the wrong place.

On Monday, the county provided the auditors an explanation of their system in their response to Fann's letter.

So about as stupid as looking for bamboo in ballots. These people are genuinely, terrifyingly, retarded.

[Paranoid Android]

They’re checking for Chinese bamboo ballots in the Arizona audit. Not kidding.

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/...777181700?s=19

I think I posted this, but the effin crazy of these people.

Bamboo in the ballots! Why not rice paper or any Chinese food residue. Perhaps made of panda skin. Anyways besides crazy, pretty racist undertones in this crazy.

[draynay]

pretty racist undertones in this crazy.

Its Arizona, there's nothing "under" about it.

[Blur4stuff]

Arizona has a very interesting mix of people. You do have a significant number of far right wing crazies, but also a lot of progressives and liberals with more independent thinking people in the middle. There's wonderful people in the state like Mark Kelly, but you also get nutjobs like Gosar who is probably in the top 5 worse republicans in the house.

I dunno for sure how things will go in 22 & 24, but the state is going to be blue by next decade.

In any case, it's nice to see some republicans aren't in the Trump cult.

[Benggaul]

So why even bother? Just to stroke Trump's fucking ego? Literally the only purpose left in the GOP is stroking that man's ego. It's pathetic.

It's been said already, but the point isn't to actually find fraud. It's to demolish confidence in the voting process so they can push through more restrictive voting laws in every state they currently hold power and, as a few states have already done, put in a clause saying they can change the outcome if they wish because "omg fraud!"

[PrimiOne]

AZ election board write this letter saying the recount is a sham, and they aren't going to help anymore.

They point out the laws broken by Cyber Ninjas, they point out the blatantly biased people in charge, they point out the unfounded/objectively false conspiracy theories, they use the term "laughingstock".


-- head of the board

Regardless, the failure of your so called “auditors” to locate data files on the
copy they made of the County’s server speaks more to their ineptitude than it
does to the integrity and actions of our dedicated public employees who
effectively and accurately run the elections in the fourth largest county in the
United States.

The part about the deleted database is just.....I can't...I don't even.....just capital bold WOW.

I am no system admin but a developer so my experience managing MSSQL is limited but even I understand how incredibly stupid are Cyber Ninjas claims ( so go figure what a real MCSA:SQL will think)

What the fuck is this Cyber Ninjas business? Is it IT consulting? Because one would think a business called Cyber Ninjas should have ,at least, the very minimum most basic undestanding of SQL management so like every-single-thing related to this kafkaesque circus that is the trumpsphere one can not really tell anymore if this is malicious intent and they do really know how absurd is their shit or they are just simply and truly stupid.

So rule of thumb: when in doubt probably both, malicious AND stupid.

[Felya]

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/...777181700?s=19

I think I posted this, but the effin crazy of these people.

Bamboo in the ballots! Why not rice paper or any Chinese food residue. Perhaps made of panda skin. Anyways besides crazy, pretty racist undertones in this crazy.

It’s lunacy... no one has been able to explain, why China would need to send ballots from China. We have printers in US, that wouldn’t require shipping across the ocean. I have never seen anyone try to explain that... it doesn’t just make no sense, it’s logistically idiotic. What possible advantage would shipping paper ballots across the ocean, through customs or illegally crossing the border, be... versus just printing them in US?

In fact, it simply proves that this conspiracy is a machination of boomers... Why not ship a memory card, then print them from off line machines in US?... that would be an equivalent conspiracy theory, for people who grew up with memory cards, instead of note pads.

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So rule of thumb: when in doubt probably both, malicious AND stupid.

What self respecting IT person, wouldn’t point out that you can ship millions of ballots on a memory card? Fucking boomers...

Edit: As I said above, if they claim there are Chines ballots... who is getting charged for the slew of laws that were broken? They can’t just come out and say that there are Chines or forged ballots. The mass of people involved, would need to be charged with at least espionage. What’s the expected response to China, as a result? Are we going to demand sanctions or something greater, since unlike even Russia, they directly manipulated the vote, to the tune of thousands of cases of voter fraud.

Think of all of the people that had to be involved, to... I assume... Ship ballot templates and then receive thousands of ballots... each of those people would need to be charged with conspiracy against the US. China, even if they can’t find culprits in US, would have to face a greater response from US, than even Russian meddling via social media.

How can they get away, with claiming there is fraud, but charging no one?

[Breccia]

I can't...I don't even

Pfft. You sound just like the entire AZ election board, who called the situation a "laughingstock".

Everyone, including the AZ Senate, knows this has gone sideways. The question remains, as it always has, what will they do using this as an excuse? Since even a few AZ lawmakers are backing away slowly, and the AZ election board said "see you in court, fuckers" this might actually have done the AZ GOP a dissservice -- making it harder, not easier, to create new voter suppression laws and point to the recount as an excuse.

Yeah, they might do it and just say "because it's important" or otherwise handwave the recount they asked for that's both illegal and a farce. It would prove they never cared about the recount itself, only staying in power. So not so much "malicious and stupid" but just "malicious".

To answer an earlier question of yours: Cyber Ninjas has never recounted an election before.

[Felya]

Cyber Ninjas is an IT security consulting firm that does shit like ethical hacking. They have no expertise in the field of auditing elections, but their CEO thinks the election was stolen so the MAGAts figured he'd be the perfect person to conduct their audit.

The mistake they made, is a fundamental part of ethical hacking. You are literally taught the most common mistakes made, when moving files... because that’s where mistakes creat openings for vulnerability.

[Adam Jensen]

The part about the deleted database is just.....I can't...I don't even.....just capital bold WOW.

I am no system admin but a developer so my experience managing MSSQL is limited but even I understand how incredibly stupid are Cyber Ninjas claims ( so go figure what a real MCSA:SQL will think)

What the fuck is this Cyber Ninjas business? Is it IT consulting? Because one would think a business called Cyber Ninjas should have ,at least, the very minimum most basic undestanding of SQL management so like every-single-thing related to this kafkaesque circus that is the trumpsphere one can not really tell anymore if this is malicious intent and they do really know how absurd is their shit or they are just simply and truly stupid.

So rule of thumb: when in doubt probably both, malicious AND stupid.

The Trump Collarary to Hanlon's Razor:

Never assume malice when stupidity is suffice to explain, except when Trump is involved. Then it's both.