[Speculation] There Won't Be 9.3 Patch

[ashblond]

I dont know what we WILL get but I hope we only get 9.2, the sooner we're done with SL the better

Under current situation, no 9.3 and timely 10.0 is definitely better for the franchise in long term. Longer SL lifespan = more sub drain

But the condition is that Blizzard actually learns their lessons from BFA/SL. If next expansion is just a repeated BFA/SL, then the release timeline doesn't matter at all.

[shimerra]

Under current situation, no 9.3 and timely 10.0 is definitely better for the franchise in long term. Longer SL lifespan = more sub drain

But the condition is that Blizzard actually learns their lessons from BFA/SL. If next expansion is just a repeated BFA/SL, then the release timeline doesn't matter at all.

Me and my buddies so far have enjoyed SL. If it's draining subs of folks like you that's just gravy.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

And you think that will be enough for the corporate asshats at Activision? Sure, they won't close it down but if WoW starts to be less profitable than Call of Duty or Candy Crush they will allocate resources accordingly. You are deluding yourself if you don't think there will not be consequences.

Blizzard as a whole is already pretty far behind Cod or Cc let alone wow on its own, if wow being behind them was a deciding factor wow would have been gutted years ago.



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They seem to be shifting people regardless of how much money wow is making. Player numbers have dropped but revenue is still up. All while content is taking longer and longer to be pushed out because the team size just keeps shrinking. Some might say the team is still the same though and it is covid slowing things down.

I would say that is the best way to cover up reallocation of resources... People are getting fired constantly it's no secret anymore.

The team isn’t shrinking its been growing year over year as the credits for each expan shows.


Though before any one ask shadowlands isn’t up yet.

World of WarCraft: Warlords of Draenor Credits
3795 people (3781 developers, 14 thanks)

World of WarCraft: Legion Credits
4772 people (4763 developers, 9 thanks)


World of WarCraft: Battle for Azeroth Credits
5705 people (5696 developers, 9 thanks)

https://www.mobygames.com/game/windo...raenor/credits
https://www.mobygames.com/game/windo...legion/credits
https://www.mobygames.com/game/windo...zeroth/credits

[Gourbaak]

There will obviously be a 9.3, like there was a 8.3 and a 7.3.

[rhorle]

The team isn’t shrinking its been growing year over year as the credits for each expan shows.

Seeing the numbers like that does make me wonder what could be done if both Blizzard and the Community would accept a lower quality of work. Not something crazy low but on par with other MMO's. At times it does seem clear the standard Blizzard is held to hurts as often as it helps.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

Seeing the numbers like that does make me wonder what could be done if both Blizzard and the Community would accept a lower quality of work. Not something crazy low but on par with other MMO's. At times it does seem clear the standard Blizzard is held to hurts as often as it helps.

I wouldn’t be surprised if managing all
These workings baring Mabye a few hundred contractors not needed from patch to
Patch was an absolute nightmare and slows things down a lot futher then smaller teams.

[Nyel]

Maybe it has been posted before, but I joined this thread only on page 8 or 9, so I’ll post it again:



Even Taliesin now is pretty much on board with not having a 9.3 patch. And he’s using mostly the same arguments that are used in this forum why 9.3 is incredibly unlikely to happen. If you’re interested in listening to his arguments, it starts around 15:00.

[Dracullus]

They seem to be shifting people regardless of how much money wow is making. Player numbers have dropped but revenue is still up..

Why you people spread bullshit like this? From data you posted I see WoW revenue increased 7% year over year. So WoW (let's simplify, I know it's for whole Blizz) earned 7% more money during March 20'-March 21' then March 19'-March 20'. You know what last period had and one before had not? NEW WOW EXPANSION WITH BOX PRICE.

Also I don't know where you got info that player numbers have dropped. We know shit ton of people comes on launch, then we have huge drop, during X.1-X.2 we have mostly just people that play regularly, late X.3 people slowly come back. It repeats every expansion. But we have no details of differences between Legion/BfA/SL in similar periods.

Maybe it has been posted before, but I joined this thread only on page 8 or 9, so I’ll post it again:

Even Taliesin now is pretty much on board with not having a 9.3 patch. And he’s using mostly the same arguments that are used in this forum why 9.3 is incredibly unlikely to happen. If you’re interested in listening to his arguments, it starts around 15:00.

Taliesin is as much in the dark as we are, quick remind that all these youtubers were 'sure' about 9.1 August release date just few weeks ago. Hell, maybe some of them still are.

Only two things could help us - official interview or 9.2 PTR. Anything else will be repeating same arguments or potential scam.

[Cosmic Janitor]

Maybe it has been posted before, but I joined this thread only on page 8 or 9, so I’ll post it again:
<snip>
Even Taliesin now is pretty much on board with not having a 9.3 patch. And he’s using mostly the same arguments that are used in this forum why 9.3 is incredibly unlikely to happen. If you’re interested in listening to his arguments, it starts around 15:00.

That is the first good reason for 9.3 I've read .

[Revamp Man]

Let’s assume a 4 month of total development delay

Now either 10.0 is also delayed because in the past they did state that they are working on expansions side by side OR it’s launch isn’t effected

This gives us two choices for blizzard to make from the established patterns

1. 9.3 is closer to the length of other patches instead of 10-13

2. 10.0 launches later

Cutting 9.3 only makes sense if it’s decided that there’s been so much delay on shadowlands development with no delay on 10.0 Which would be a miracle

[melodramocracy]

This expansion is dragging enough already. Wrap it up in a sizeable 9.2 patch and let's move on.

[Dracullus]

Let’s assume a 4 month of total development delay

Now either 10.0 is also delayed because in the past they did state that they are working on expansions side by side OR it’s launch isn’t effected

This gives us two choices for blizzard to make from the established patterns

1. 9.3 is closer to the length of other patches instead of 10-13

2. 10.0 launches later

Cutting 9.3 only makes sense if it’s decided that there’s been so much delay on shadowlands development with no delay on 10.0 Which would be a miracle

Seems like shortly before Alpha all hands are on next expac deck. That won't magically change this time, especially now with delays. That would work in expac like Legion when they showed us first Argus screen 10 months (!) before release.

Imo only release scenarios worth discussing are: fall '22 (no 9.2), spring '23 (9.2/9.3 coming faster to match BfA length - it wouldn't be that hard if thing will come back to normal), summer '23 (most likely with both 9.2/9.3). With last scenario I bet they would release Wrath Classic around January '23.

[Couchpotato2013]

The question then is: would a massive 9.2 (akin to 6.2) not be better than a smaller 9.2 and an additional smaller 9.3?

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Exactly.

Either we have 9.3 mid 2022 which delays the release of the next expansion for at least 6 months until mid 2023 (where WotLK Classic will be launched, by the way) or we have no 9.3 and 10.0 in late 2022.

I guarantee you blizz will want to draw on the heart strings of wrath anniversary in order to sell wrath classic.


Just a bit of math:


Classic lasted 631 days (August 26, 2019-May 18, 2021), vanilla lasted 742 (November 23, 2004- December 5, 2006) (neither including pre-patch). So classic was 85% the length of vanilla. Going by that % and the length of how long tbc which was 637 days long (January 16, 2007- October 14, 2008). We could roughly expect classic tbc to last 541.7 days. Which if we start off with June 1st date that would place 542 days on Friday November 25, 2022. Which would be 11 days after the 14th anniversary of wrath.

Naturally that would be Thanksgiving Friday so no launch then but the closeness of date, especially given how tbc has far less world content and will be way more prone to raidlogging with arena being the only repeatable content (and that will turn people off heavily). Logical to expect tbcc to have shorter product life cycle vs classic.

And since that has wrath classic probably in November/early December, that can place 10.0 launch at August-early October. There just is no time for 9.3. 9.1 as people are hyping up now, and with 9.2 between mid-November to January (much like 7.3.2/.5 and 8.3).

[Relapses]

I guarantee you blizz will want to draw on the heart strings of wrath anniversary in order to sell wrath classic.


Just a bit of math:


Classic lasted 631 days (August 26, 2019-May 18, 2021), vanilla lasted 742 (November 23, 2004- December 5, 2006) (neither including pre-patch). So classic was 85% the length of vanilla. Going by that % and the length of how long tbc which was 637 days long (January 16, 2007- October 14, 2008). We could roughly expect classic tbc to last 541.7 days. Which if we start off with June 1st date that would place 542 days on Friday November 25, 2022. Which would be 11 days after the 14th anniversary of wrath.

Naturally that would be Thanksgiving Friday so no launch then but the closeness of date, especially given how tbc has far less world content and will be way more prone to raidlogging with arena being the only repeatable content (and that will turn people off heavily). Logical to expect tbcc to have shorter product life cycle vs classic.

And since that has wrath classic probably in November/early December, that can place 10.0 launch at August-early October. There just is no time for 9.3. 9.1 as people are hyping up now, and with 9.2 between mid-November to January (much like 7.3.2/.5 and 8.3).

I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night and my calculations say that not only are we having a 9.3, Blizzard is planning a 9.4, 9.5 and 9.6 instead of 10.0. It's Shadowlands all the way down, baby!

[Clbull]

Obviously we'll have to wait until Chains of Domination actually comes out, but I stand by my prediction that Blizzard are going to shelve Shadowlands after 9.1.

Here's my prediction on how the Sylvanas boss encounter will end.

On defeating Sylvanas, a cutscene plays where Zovaal breaks open the seal trapping him in the Maw and storms into Oribos. He attempts to rip out the Arbiter's heart but suddenly wakes her up from her dormant state. With their combined power, the Eternal Ones drag every soul out from the Maw and swarms the Jailer with them. Zovaal is obliterated by millions of souls in a death scene that closely resembles and is a clear callback to Archimonde's WC3 death by wisps.

With her last dying breath, Sylvanas faces a last moment of realization and laments that she is no better than the Lich King. In the end, she did little more than serve his master.

The Maw Walker is once again hailed as a hero while Azeroth's leaders and the Eternal Ones bicker over whether Sylvanas' soul should be cast into the Maw. Some like Tyrande want her to rot in the depths of Torghast for eternity while others who have witnessed the Maw's horrors like Jaina and Thrall wouldn't want to wish that fate upon anybody.

Before they can come to a consensus, the Arbiter makes her final judgement on Sylvanas Windrunner...

"This one can yet be redeemed."

Sylvanas is taken to Revendreth for an eternity of "atonement" where her soul will be tortured and drained of enough anima to power the afterlife for eons to come. Somewhere within the Sanguine Depths, Garrosh Hellscream learns of Sylvanas's betrayal, demise and incarceration and he responds only with a shit-eating grin.

Then after that, WoW faces another fifteen month content drought before they push the next expansion upon us. And you'll all still sheepishly buy it because Warlords of Draenor and its half-finished state has proven that you have no standards. Lesser publishers would have gone out of business for abandoning a product 25% through its anticipated life cycle like the Warcraft team did, but not Blizzard themselves.

[Revamp Man]

Seems like shortly before Alpha all hands are on next expac deck. That won't magically change this time, especially now with delays. That would work in expac like Legion when they showed us first Argus screen 10 months (!) before release.

Imo only release scenarios worth discussing are: fall '22 (no 9.2), spring '23 (9.2/9.3 coming faster to match BfA length - it wouldn't be that hard if thing will come back to normal), summer '23 (most likely with both 9.2/9.3). With last scenario I bet they would release Wrath Classic around January '23.

When WoD launched they already had legion development going so it’s safe to say the same thing about SL and 10.0

Let’s say 9.1 in 3 weeks
9.2 6-7 months after so January release to avoid the mistake of nathria
So either 10.0 launches in 2022 in the holiday season which would definitely not happen just from a practical standpoint or 9.3 launches in 2022 and 10.0 in 2023 around maybe August which imo is what will happen

They will aim to make 9.3 to keep sub numbers high along with revenue so they have decent earnings reports after they get back on track next year

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I guarantee you blizz will want to draw on the heart strings of wrath anniversary in order to sell wrath classic.


Just a bit of math:


Classic lasted 631 days (August 26, 2019-May 18, 2021), vanilla lasted 742 (November 23, 2004- December 5, 2006) (neither including pre-patch). So classic was 85% the length of vanilla. Going by that % and the length of how long tbc which was 637 days long (January 16, 2007- October 14, 2008). We could roughly expect classic tbc to last 541.7 days. Which if we start off with June 1st date that would place 542 days on Friday November 25, 2022. Which would be 11 days after the 14th anniversary of wrath.

Naturally that would be Thanksgiving Friday so no launch then but the closeness of date, especially given how tbc has far less world content and will be way more prone to raidlogging with arena being the only repeatable content (and that will turn people off heavily). Logical to expect tbcc to have shorter product life cycle vs classic.

And since that has wrath classic probably in November/early December, that can place 10.0 launch at August-early October. There just is no time for 9.3. 9.1 as people are hyping up now, and with 9.2 between mid-November to January (much like 7.3.2/.5 and 8.3).

I like drawing patterns with 1 thing to look at

Also I didn’t know the world ended in 2022 with all this talk avoiding any possible launches in 2023 for shadowlands and how 10.0 is required to launch in 2022 and neither classic tbc or SL/10.0 were effected by the quarantine delays

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Then after that, WoW faces another fifteen month content drought before they push the next expansion upon us. And you'll all still sheepishly buy it because Warlords of Draenor and its half-finished state has proven that you have no standards.

My friend I might have a stroke after that much salt

[rhorle]

Let’s say 9.1 in 3 weeks
9.2 6-7 months after so January release to avoid the mistake of nathria
So either 10.0 launches in 2022 in the holiday season which would definitely not happen just from a practical standpoint or 9.3 launches in 2022 and 10.0 in 2023 around maybe August which imo is what will happen

I think you didn't use much thought with your math. 9.2 won't last most of a year if they are planning to do a 9.3. There is no reason for Blizzard to shy away from a Holiday release for an expansion because they did that with Shadowlands. All they have to do is delay the start of the raid opening to January if they release in December.

[Dracullus]

When WoD launched they already had legion development going so it’s safe to say the same thing about SL and 10.0

Let’s say 9.1 in 3 weeks
9.2 6-7 months after so January release to avoid the mistake of nathria
So either 10.0 launches in 2022 in the holiday season which would definitely not happen just from a practical standpoint or 9.3 launches in 2022 and 10.0 in 2023 around maybe August which imo is what will happen

They will aim to make 9.3 to keep sub numbers high along with revenue so they have decent earnings reports after they get back on track next year

Well you said pretty much what me (except that January raid + late year expac is possible, we just had that). Yeah, even August could work, it's not hard to imagine Diablo II + Immortal for these holiday season, Overwatch 2 for first half of '22, Diablo IV for '22 holiday season, Wrath Classic for first half of '23. And next games revealed on Blizzcon '22 in November.

One thing that works against 9.3 is annoucement of online event early next year. Imo pre-orders of OV2/DIV are not enough to justify it. What game reveal is important enough to make big event, but couldn't wait for regular Blizzcon? Only WoW. And this event will probably be soon after 9.2 release.

[MatPandaZ]

Its clear things have slowed way down.

Is it? BFA was pre covid and suffered from delays and constantly unfinished content. I'm starting to believe rather than the pandemic causing a slowdown, Blizzard are using the pandemic *to* slow down. I' rapidly losing faith in Blizzard, as someone who defended SL saying to wait and see instead of speculating.. well, here we are... major content drought and not a word of when we hope to see 9.1.

[Revamp Man]

Well you said pretty much what me (except that January raid + late year expac is possible, we just had that). Yeah, even August could work, it's not hard to imagine Diablo II + Immortal for these holiday season, Overwatch 2 for first half of '22, Diablo IV for '22 holiday season, Wrath Classic for first half of '23. And next games revealed on Blizzcon '22 in November.

One thing that works against 9.3 is annoucement of online event early next year. Imo pre-orders of OV2/DIV are not enough to justify it. What game reveal is important enough to make big event, but couldn't wait for regular Blizzcon? Only WoW. And this event will probably be soon after 9.2 release.

Blizzcon is a hype fest for all the games and it would normally be a regular blizzcon but...pandemic...so it’s gonna likely be just like this year

Patch announcement
Other games get their stuff

It’s fine and actually it works more for 9.3 because devs don’t have to fuck off for two weeks to get ready for a live event