Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

It could be due to the asymptomatic spread which we still really don't know about. I linked earlier in this thread about how the studies that were done like the one published in JAMA were shown to use really sketchy research. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7tJh7D4w-U

There was a massive one done in Wuhan which shows asymptomatic transmission is considerably lower that these other studies indicated. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Yes, it makes sense - I see two reasons for this:

• People might spread before they become symptomatic - or about the same day they become symptomatic, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32767657/ Technically this is called pre-symptomatic, but you still need similar pre-cautions as if people were asymptomatic.
• Many have mild symptoms (and many of symptoms are not unique to covid-19), and it's easier to fudge and say you were asymptomatic than to admit that you had symptoms and should have stayed home. This is especially an issue if people lack good sick-pay.

[caractacus]

Yes, it makes sense - I see two reasons for this:

• People might spread before they become symptomatic - or about the same day they become symptomatic, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32767657/ Technically this is called pre-symptomatic, but you still need similar pre-cautions as if people were asymptomatic.
• Many have mild symptoms (and many of symptoms are not unique to covid-19), and it's easier to fudge and say you were asymptomatic than to admit that you had symptoms and should have stayed home. This is especially an issue if people lack good sick-pay.

Yea when I was looking at this I noticed there is a grey area between wholly asymptomatic people and pre-symptomatic people. My take from it was that if it's true that transmission is very rare in people that are completely asymptomatic it's still not an argument that people without symptoms won't spread the disease but understanding it better may explain other things, like why children might be less contagious.

[Grimbold21]

Debating with myself if I ought to sign up for an earlier vaccination with J&J

[Gaidax]

12-15 yo vaccinations are on free for all, but MoH does not advise it because it seems that that particular age group is resistant to C19 as is.

Also all restrictions are canceled, except for masks inside buildings. Seems like masks will be canceled completely in a week or so.

[Rasulis]

12-15 yo vaccinations are on free for all, but MoH does not advise it because it seems that that particular age group is resistant to C19 as is.

Also all restrictions are canceled, except for masks inside buildings. Seems like masks will be canceled completely in a week or so.

Why wouldn’t they give the vaccine to the 12 - 15 age group? Data from Pfizer test showed that their vaccine resulted in much higher antibody, b- and t-cell activities in 12 - 15 group than in 16 - 25 age group. Yes the infection rate is relatively low in the 12 - 15 age group. However, the vaccine lowered it to pretty much zero. Moderna has not published their findings, but I expect that it will be the same.

Teens’ coronavirus hospitalization rates 3 times higher than flu: CDC study

Findings out Friday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) stemmed from FluSurv-NET data, a surveillance system across 13 states, to compare COVID-19 and flu-related hospitalizations among kids aged 12-17 from October to April, or most of the typical flu season. Rates were compared across three flu seasons starting in 2017.

"Cumulative COVID-19–associated hospitalization rates during October 1, 2020–April 24, 2021, were 2.5–3.0 times higher than seasonal influenza-associated hospitalization rates during three recent influenza seasons," CDC researchers wrote.

Hospitalization data was presented in the form of total rates per 100,000 population, compiling week by week. Results indicate upwards of 35 COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 population, compared to approximately 15 flu hospitalizations per 100,000 population. Data also indicates the three flu seasons under study saw approximately similar numbers of teens requiring hospitalization, though the 2018-2019 flu season resulted in fewer cumulative hospitalizations.

Still low number. However, if you can push it to zero, why not take the vaccine.

[caractacus]

Why wouldn’t they give the vaccine to the 12 - 15 age group? Data from Pfizer test showed that their vaccine resulted in much higher antibody, b- and t-cell activities in 12 - 15 group than in 16 - 25 age group. Yes the infection rate is relatively low in the 12 - 15 age group. However, the vaccine lowered it to pretty much zero. Moderna has not published their findings, but I expect that it will be the same.

Teens’ coronavirus hospitalization rates 3 times higher than flu: CDC study



Still low number. However, if you can push it to zero, why not take the vaccine.

I would guess there is some hesitancy as some of the very rare but more dangerous side effects of the vaccines appear to adversely effect younger people. I think there was some evidence that the blood clots from the AZ vaccine were more prevalent in young females, which is why in the UK under 30's are offered an alternative. The Pfizer vaccine has shown evidence of Myocarditis, particularly in young men. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...d-vaccine.html

[Forogil]

I would guess there is some hesitancy as some of the very rare but more dangerous side effects of the vaccines appear to adversely effect younger people. I think there was some evidence that the blood clots from the AZ vaccine were more prevalent in young females, which is why in the UK under 30's are offered an alternative. The Pfizer vaccine has shown evidence of Myocarditis, particularly in young men. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...d-vaccine.html

Ok, that's not good - seems slightly more common than blood clots from AZ, but considerably less deadly it seems Whether it just heals itself is also unknown.

I guess the rest of the world will wait and see how it works out in the US, as most countries are still going through higher priority groups. CDC is also looking at it https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...ocarditis.html

Both side-effects also seem to auto-immune responses which isn't unexpected, the virus fools the immune-system by looking too much like something internal - so a vaccine may cause the body to over-react; and covid-19 may also cause Myocarditis ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33761041/ possibly sometimes caused by the virus and sometimes by the immune-system requiring completely different treatments) and it's normal that both virus and vaccine cause the same auto-immune disorder.

[jonnysensible]

got me some moderna today, didnt feel the needle, my arm stings a bit now.

[Granyala]

Seems like masks will be canceled completely in a week or so.

Nice. Congrats!
Now lets hope that holds up when winter comes.

[Rasulis]

Get a vaccine and get a free joint. Also donuts, beer, baseball ticket, etc. Unfortunately, I don't smoke, nor eat sugary stuff, don't drink, and have no interest in baseball.

[Gaidax]

I would guess there is some hesitancy as some of the very rare but more dangerous side effects of the vaccines appear to adversely effect younger people. I think there was some evidence that the blood clots from the AZ vaccine were more prevalent in young females, which is why in the UK under 30's are offered an alternative. The Pfizer vaccine has shown evidence of Myocarditis, particularly in young men. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...d-vaccine.html

Exactly this, it is the stated reason, coupled with the fact that in C19 in Israel is in decline for a while and vaccination of 12-15yo is mostly inconsequential to that.

The risks of C19 are still higher than risks of vaccine, but the side effects are more dangerous and produce diseases that are harder to predict and treat.

Basically, parents can vaccinate 12-15yo, but there is no recommendation to do so, except for risk groups.

---

Just for the sake of clarity, above is not some medical advice or call to action. It's just me passing news about what we have here now.

[Rasulis]

A week out and so far we are not seeing any spike in new cases from Memorial Day weekend. San Luis Obispo and San Diego counties will be moving into yellow tier ahead of the June 15 opening. SF saw only 7 deaths in May and have entire weeks without a single Covid-related death. Looks like the vaccination program is working.

[Zan15]

Get a vaccine and get a free joint. Also donuts, beer, baseball ticket, etc. Unfortunately, I don't smoke, nor eat sugary stuff, don't drink, and have no interest in baseball.

flip them for profit!!!

[Spectral]

Debating with myself if I ought to sign up for an earlier vaccination with J&J

What makes you hesitate on it? If it's your only option, it's certainly still pretty good and a far sight better than nothing.

[Forogil]

What makes you hesitate on it? If it's your only option, it's certainly still pretty good and a far sight better than nothing.

True, but it seems to be in Portugal which is in the EU so other options would likely be available - especially if you can chose.

It could that you have to wait more for Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna and get J&J right now (AZ seems to only be available if you are 60+ in Portugal); which is a hard call depending on how long and how bad the situation is at the moment.
It could be that earlier means earlier fully vaccinated with J&J - but with lesser protection, also a difficult choice - and depending more on your risk in the future; and you will anyway likely have to get protection against the new variants with another vaccine.

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm...
I looked at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (the positivity rate is also slowing going up - but is currently fine at 0.6%) and it seems that the uk numbers are steadily increasing and will be bad in a month or so. (The Delta-variant from India is generally blamed for the increase.)
Assuming nothing changes, and the plan is to lift all(?) restrictions in about two weeks time - we will see.

Deaths are still low and steady, could be due to protection from vaccine - or because it takes awhile for people to die.

What is really worrying is that it is currently fairly warm weather in the uk, and it seemed the virus is seasonal and preferring the fall/winter; and also that the uk has a high number of people having their first dose of the vaccine. The uk government have been viewing their vaccine program as a success, so any problem may also have political consequences.

[Gaidax]

Get your vaccine when you can, these musings about maybe waiting for something better is just playing with fire.

[Grimbold21]

What makes you hesitate on it? If it's your only option, it's certainly still pretty good and a far sight better than nothing.

J&J is one the vaccines you can sign up to get up earlier, which I assume has smth to do with with its risks.

Otherwise a healthy person needs to wait til September for one of the others

Edit: J&J and AstraZeneca

[Forogil]

J&J is one the vaccines you can sign up to get up earlier, which I assume has smth to do with with its risks.

Otherwise a healthy person needs to wait til September for one of the others

Oh, September is quite a bit away - in that case I would personally go for it unless you are a healthy and below 30 (and especially a girl), in case the side-effects become a problem especially as Portugal currently have low numbers. But it's not a good trade-off.

[Rasulis]

Ouch!

Coronavirus deaths this year surpass 2020 total

The newspaper found that about 1.883 million people have died from the virus in 2021, compared with 1.88 million last year.

This year's COVID-19 death toll surpassed the 2020 total on Thursday, according to the Journal.

The figures underscore the divide between countries that have access to the vaccine and those that are struggling to acquire doses. As of Wednesday, around 2 percent of people in Africa had received at least one dose of the vaccine according to Our World In Data. Almost 7 percent of individuals in Asia had received at least one dose, while in North America that figure was closer to 40 percent.

President Biden announced on Thursday that the United States would donate 500 million doses to countries in need. But an initiative supported by the U.S. to waive intellectual property rights for COVID vaccines -- in an effort to help developing countries manufacture the vaccine -- is still facing pushback from the European Union.

The disconnect is just strange to me. I kept reading about metro areas in US that have already reached herd immunity threshold (SF & Seattle), and then we have large regions of the world where Covid is spreading unchecked.

[Nellise]

Ouch!

Coronavirus deaths this year surpass 2020 total



The disconnect is just strange to me. I kept reading about metro areas in US that have already reached herd immunity threshold (SF & Seattle), and then we have large regions of the world where Covid is spreading unchecked.

I don't know how they came up with those percentages. China is shown to have given 800+ million doses which would make the Asia number above 10% just from them.

Edit: I guess that number is unofficial or something and not included in some charts so must not have shown up in whatever they looked at. But seems like a big mistake to count China's population and then ignore all of their vaccinations.