Investing in the stock market

[hellhamster]

As opposed to you posting blatantly false information, or astronomically bad takes...?

So unemployment isn't high right now? The stock market isn't hitting all time highs right now? Assets aren't hitting all time highs right now? Are you all living in a parallel world?

[ghotihook]

So unemployment isn't high right now? The stock market isn't hitting all time highs right now? Assets aren't hitting all time highs right now? Are you all living in a parallel world?

At least here in the US, the stock market is doing well but unemployment is not crazy high or anything (around 2014-15 values) and is continuing to go down. I think a lot of it is to do with people still being on the benefits from the government from Covid and not going back to the workforce. Everywhere around here is hiring and even seen signs at fast food/restaurants saying that they are closed because they don't have enough employees.

[Ursus]

Great contribution as always, like your last post.

You posted something that is a blatant lie that anyone can easily verify in literally 5 seconds with a Google search, and then instead of just admitting your mistake and moving on, you proceed to double down on it.

That's a bold move Cotton, let's see if it works out for you.

[Belize]

So unemployment isn't high right now?

Certainly not at an all time high. Covid is mostly responsible for unemployment, and we can expect that as vaccination slowly goes up, so will unemployment keep going down.

It's certainly not perfect, and there's still issues both with Covid, and employers being unwilling to pay their employees living wages, but both are slowly sorting themselves out. It's not like the U.S. has ever been known for great employment conditions, for better or for worse.

The stock market isn't hitting all time highs right now? Assets aren't hitting all time highs right now?

As opposed to when it was all time high, last year, and the year before, and the year before...

The largest dip for stocks since at least '08 (and this one was much more sudden than 08's to 09's gradual descent) was Feb/March of 2020 with Covid. By November stocks had recovered fully.

We recovered from the Great Depression, from the 90s crash, the '08 recession and the 2020 pandemic outbreak. I'm just not seeing the imminent total system failure you keep predicting every other month. And if it does happen, then oh well, "investments" will be the last of my worries if groceries can't stock shelves and electrical plants can't keep operating.

[Zan15]

So unemployment isn't high right now? The stock market isn't hitting all time highs right now? Assets aren't hitting all time highs right now? Are you all living in a parallel world?

i mean high vs what? Pre pandemic? 1989? 2009? 2014? 2018? 1944? 1933? Historical norms?

Oh glad you asked, "what are historical norms"


US Unemployment Rate is at 5.90%, compared to 5.80% last month and 11.10% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 5.77%.

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At least here in the US, the stock market is doing well but unemployment is not crazy high or anything (around 2014-15 values) and is continuing to go down. I think a lot of it is to do with people still being on the benefits from the government from Covid and not going back to the workforce. Everywhere around here is hiring and even seen signs at fast food/restaurants saying that they are closed because they don't have enough employees.

right now based on the first round of data the impact of removing those benefits have not moved the needle in getting people back to the workforce.

The biggest issues are Covid fears, no child care, Low wages and workers now having the leverage advantage, and workers quitting their jobs for better paying jobs.

[Feltima]

I'm purely a macro guy but I can theoretically trade ranges well and can determine lows quite easily, highs are a different thing since I don't fully trust fib levels. I never actively trade charts though. I can predict price movements and price targets accurately, but I know that the second I make a trade, the low probability scenario will happen and I'll get rekt. I know it's a gamble most of the time so I just stay away.

I've been pretty accurate with my predictions so far though, I got a bunch of stocks a couple months after the March 2020 crash but they proved to be low hanging fruit with like a 10% ROI (I played it safe and got banks and the worst performing airlines in Europe). Should have gone for crypto, commodities and tech stocks immediately back then instead of pussying out and opting in January 2021.

The only thing I really kinda hate myself for was the fact I was not able to predict the bitcoin May crash. A megadump after a 2 month long consolidation following a pullback was pretty unexpected, I was honestly expecting a leg up. In hindsight, I should have sold the pi cycle top, I thought it was a meme indicator at the time. Lessons learned I guess. I've been pretty accurate after the crash though, only been kinda off on the bitcoin Wyckoff timing, but it was a longshot predicting the precise accumulation schematic anyway. It still happened, but I got the time frame off.

Nice! Yeah, I'm still learning more nuance about macro-economics, it's been really informing for perspective on geopolitics. Before crypto, I assumed we really could print bucks till infinity. That the FED has prevailed, where Rome failed. Almost five years and a whole lot of adderall, I learned enough about technical analysis to make money. A great deal of loot I made doing margin trading. Man, the dopamine release when you make money doing that, whew. I don't know if that's healthy to feel that good winning like that.

A lot of people didn't see the May drop coming. I should have, but I was too greedy. I freaking saw it in BTC. Constantly put in lower highs, but I was on a roll, making a grip, until I wasn't. I don't get how anyone can look at DXY these days, and think it's going to somehow pull out of this. You know what I think? Powell isn't going to ever raise interest rates. Warren went from wanting to lay down the gauntlet with draconian regulation on crypto, to claiming crypto and CBDCs can save and advance the economy. It's like she got a memo from a Ripple employee or something. Same day the deposition supposedly happened, Japan went live with ODL. You can't make this shit up. The media narrative is shifting, they're starting to expose people to the concept of a new economic system.

[hellhamster]

So just high now? Not "all-time high!" like before?

I wasn't talking strictly about the US.

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Nice! Yeah, I'm still learning more nuance about macro-economics, it's been really informing for perspective on geopolitics. Before crypto, I assumed we really could print bucks till infinity. That the FED has prevailed, where Rome failed. Almost five years and a whole lot of adderall, I learned enough about technical analysis to make money. A great deal of loot I made doing margin trading. Man, the dopamine release when you make money doing that, whew. I don't know if that's healthy to feel that good winning like that.

A lot of people didn't see the May drop coming. I should have, but I was too greedy. I freaking saw it in BTC. Constantly put in lower highs, but I was on a roll, making a grip, until I wasn't. I don't get how anyone can look at DXY these days, and think it's going to somehow pull out of this. You know what I think? Powell isn't going to ever raise interest rates. Warren went from wanting to lay down the gauntlet with draconian regulation on crypto, to claiming crypto and CBDCs can save and advance the economy. It's like she got a memo from a Ripple employee or something. Same day the deposition supposedly happened, Japan went live with ODL. You can't make this shit up. The media narrative is shifting, they're starting to expose people to the concept of a new economic system.

I'd advise caution right now, there's probably more of that downside coming up right now, a lot of FUD remains unexplored and the accumulation period hasn't matured yet. Binance stopped futures trading in 3 major EU countries today, for example. Charts look OK right now, but that's what I thought before the May crash.

[Feltima]

I wasn't talking strictly about the US.

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I'd advise caution right now, there's probably more of that downside coming up right now, a lot of FUD remains unexplored and the accumulation period hasn't matured yet. Binance stopped futures trading in 3 major EU countries today, for example. Charts look OK right now, but that's what I thought before the May crash.

Indeed. Weekly and monthly closes are incoming this weekend. Bitcoin does need to cool off. I'm expecting it to hit 42-45K at best before pulling back, which is the best case for the BTC bulls. What's interesting though, is that BTC dominance is dropping, as several altcoins are beginning to break out against BTC. As long as dominance is under 48.48%, I'm bullish. I bought more QNT the other day at 82 bucks, it's now sitting at 130 after pumping to almost 150. QNT breakouts have been leading alt runs for the past year. It's going to be a very volatile weekend.

[Zan15]

I wasn't talking strictly about the US.

.

i mean, umm...if you want to double down.




https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/unempl...-june-2021.htm


The OECD area unemployment rate increased marginally in April 2021, to 6.6% (from 6.5% in March 2021), 1.3 percentage points above the pre-pandemic rate observed in February 2020.


It peaked at 8.82% during COVID. Higher records have been hit prior to covid.

Long term historical average is around 5.50-6.5%. it was 5.4 in 2019

not at an all time high or even close.

[hellhamster]

i mean, umm...if you want to double down.




https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/unempl...-june-2021.htm


The OECD area unemployment rate increased marginally in April 2021, to 6.6% (from 6.5% in March 2021), 1.3 percentage points above the pre-pandemic rate observed in February 2020.


It peaked at 8.82% during COVID. Higher records have been hit prior to covid.

Long term historical average is around 5.50-6.5%. it was 5.4 in 2019

not at an all time high or even close.

Coming from Greece, take OECD stats with a boatload of salt.

I said my piece, if you think these asset price increases are normal in comparison to wages, spending power and economic output, hey, more power to you .

I implore you, don't think for a second this isn't a megabubble waiting to burst, just at least prepare for that, no matter how unlikely it seems to you.

[Zan15]

Coming from Greece, take OECD stats with a boatload of salt.

I said my piece, if you think these asset price increases are normal in comparison to wages, spending power and economic output, hey, more power to you .

I implore you, don't think for a second this isn't a megabubble waiting to burst, just at least prepare for that, no matter how unlikely it seems to you.

LOL when in doubt claim some conspiracy and call the numbers fake, got it!


As far as a megabubble, yah its not even close to the scale of the dot.com bust these companies actually have earnings (the ones driving the market). "asset prices" as you call them are no where near problem levels. IF they get there then i would worry

The bigger problem is short term issues like COVID spikes and fear over lockdowns. I'd worry more about inflation and businesses making it worse by inflating prices because of their greed than anything else right now

[hellhamster]

What the fuck happened to precious metals in the last days?

[Belize]

What the fuck happened to precious metals in the last days?

It's a correction from the run on precious metals at the beginning of the pandemic as people were moving their assets to "safe" investments.

[Zan15]

What the fuck happened to precious metals in the last days?

same thing that is happening to oil.
fear over covid and profit taking after huge run ups.

Who really knows what's happening in china right now with COVID and a lot of people fear another major slowdown over there.

[Johnbardden]

I have already invested in stock market.

[gnatikbratik]

What do you think is the best place to start, at the initial stage of investing

[hellhamster]

What do you think is the best place to start, at the initial stage of investing

Spend 3 to 6 months learning the basics, always staying on the sidelines and doing nothing. Most exchanges can be set up with a learning account where you can play with fake money to learn the ropes. Learn about technical analysis, research potential buys before buying them, and eventually wait for a proper entry point. Research the current market conditions, breakthroughs, macroeconomics and market shortages for potential buys. Research the different types of markets. Read about the relative taxation.

The absolute best time to buy is nine times out of ten just after a market crash. The best time to sell is either during all time highs and when the market reaches the fabled mania/euphoria phase, or when you actually need the liquidity.

Right now the conditions are very tricky to get a proper entry point, due to high prices. You can either risk it by yoloing money now and hoping this keeps on going up (70% chance it will), or play it safe and wait for a crash but losing potentially short term gains.

[Themius]

What do you think is the best place to start, at the initial stage of investing

Have some money you don’t need for a few years. But a total market etf….

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Spend 3 to 6 months learning the basics, always staying on the sidelines and doing nothing. Most exchanges can be set up with a learning account where you can play with fake money to learn the ropes. Learn about technical analysis, research potential buys before buying them, and eventually wait for a proper entry point. Research the current market conditions, breakthroughs, macroeconomics and market shortages for potential buys. Research the different types of markets. Read about the relative taxation.

The absolute best time to buy is nine times out of ten just after a market crash. The best time to sell is either during all time highs and when the market reaches the fabled mania/euphoria phase, or when you actually need the liquidity.

Right now the conditions are very tricky to get a proper entry point, due to high prices. You can either risk it by yoloing money now and hoping this keeps on going up (70% chance it will), or play it safe and wait for a crash but losing potentially short term gains.

I think investing can be much simpler. Buy some total market etf buy some total world bonds. Forget it exists.

[hellhamster]

I think investing can be much simpler. Buy some total market etf buy some total world bonds. Forget it exists.

That's also true, but it's very boring and the amount of money gained is so small that it is basically offset by inflation, so it's not really worth it.

[Themius]

That's also true, but it's very boring and the amount of money gained is so small that it is basically offset by inflation, so it's not really worth it.

Lol what the fuck? The amount of return in a standard all market ETF is barely offset by inflation? Are you kidding me? That literally is not true and goes against just about everything taught at most business schools....

In the past 12 months I'm up 31% in an index ETF vs 29% in apple... and the index pays higher dividends...

For fuck sakes all market ETFs literally beat hedge funds and asset managers with lower fees and better returns to such a point I recall one of my professors in the business school who is also a data scientist... found it paradoxical how so many students wanted to go into jobs that may pay well but offer shit returns compared to just an index.

VT is up 26.6% in the past year... "basically offset by inflation" my fucking ass. The fuck are you talking about?

If you had invested say 100k with VT and 20% in BNDW you would have had a 23.13% return from 2018 to 2019.

If you had held from 2018 to to 2021 jul

The worst year would have seen you grow at 10% and would have ended with a present value of 156k... please... tell me... what in the hell were you talking about by "boring, not worth it because wiped out by inflation"

And we're talking about a fucking 20% bond allocation which for a lot of young people is too much and they'd gladly risk 10% or fucking 0% which if we go with 10% then you'd be looking at 161k jul 2021 with the worst year having your easy set and forget portfolio growing by 12.4% and the best year at 24.97%... seriously dude.

People wanting to "have fun" with playing stocks are the same people who lose their fucking shirts and advice to pure novices that pushes them towards anything but safe strategies is 1. irresponsible and 2. frankly stupid and unnecessary.

I don't get what's with this idea people have of fucking "sexy trading" Ooh I made 450% in 2 months!!! then take a bunch of shit calls and puts and then lose everything... nope, that isn't it.

I am a rather safe investor and I've done quite alright. Some things have "mooned" like AMD, which I bought between $3 and $9 and chegg which I bought around $20. I bought them liking their fundamentals and future and expected a modest growth over time, not the explosiveness they got. Investing with the idea of constant fucking rockets every other day is just bogus.

Now... because the other option have limited data... what if we went with say a mix of vti vxus and bnd (longer history) at 60 30 and 10 allocation?

100k at 2012 would be now 309k with 12.5% annualised returns. with 2015 at a 0.98% loss and 2018 at a 7.47% loss...

2012: 15.77%
2013: 24.25%
2014: 6.69%
2015: (0.98%)
2016: 9.39%
2017: 21.32%
2018: (7.47%)
2019: 25.81%
2020: 16.59%
2021: 12.98% (jul)

Wow how horrible!!! barely inflation....seriously dude...

If you're wondering why this is such a long post it is because I am SHOCKED anyone could say anything that foolish about investment in complete markets like... it fucking left me flabbergasted.