Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Pann]

According to the Wellcome Sanger Institute Delta now accounts for 100% of the Covid cases in the UK.

https://twitter.com/Simmons__/status...07920601784375

[Omega10]

It's not. Again, lambda is a non-issue right now.

It almost seems as if the Delta Variant is the best friend humanity could have asked for. If the Delta Variant did not exist, the Lambda and the other new virus would pick up stream and be much more vaccine resistant.

Another way to look at it is: Lambda came for the vaccinated, Delta came for the un-vaccinated. The un-vaccinated worked successfully to spread Delta fast and far enough so that Delta defeated Lambda, and the un-vaccinated will be the ones to suffer huge numbers of virus deaths instead of the vaccinated.

[Rasulis]

I went to UCSF with my wife this morning. Ended up being part of the study because they thought I might have been asymptomatic. The doctor used to go to school with my sister in Lomalinda, so I have known her for a long time. Very chatty Cathy.

She explained that the Delta variant has the ability to fool the antibodies. By design, antibodies are picky, attaching only to a small number of places on a virus’ spike protein on the surface of the virus cells. Mutating viruses, like the Delta variant, can change their spike protein and leave the antibodies without a target. T-cells, unlike antibodies which swarm the viruses directly, hunt for already infected cells. They look for and chow down the entire viral genome. T-cells can’t prevent infection, but they can limit the spread in the body. T-cells are also much harder to fool. So far, in vitro, they have not found a variant that can do that. Including Lambda.

At least that’s the theory behind why, despite the breakthrough cases, hospitalization among fully vaccinated segment of the US population is near zero. The UCSF study that we are in is trying to confirm that.

[PhaelixWW]

It almost seems as if the Delta Variant is the best friend humanity could have asked for. If the Delta Variant did not exist, the Lambda and the other new virus would pick up stream and be much more vaccine resistant.

To be fair, delta is also moderately resistant to vaccines. It remains to be seen just how much more resistant lambda is than delta, but it's not like we're getting off scot-free here. There's also no guarantee that delta won't mutate and pick up more vaccine resistance down the line, just like there's nothing to guarantee that if delta weren't around, that lambda wouldn't have mutated and found some of delta's transmissibility. We know that viruses like these have certain mutations that are more likely to occur than others, as we've seen the same mutations pop up separately in many different variants. Let's just hope that we finally get a real handle on this pandemic before something like that happens.

But, yeah, that means that lambda is, for now at least, a non-issue.

Another way to look at it is: Lambda came for the vaccinated, Delta came for the un-vaccinated. The un-vaccinated worked successfully to spread Delta fast and far enough so that Delta defeated Lambda, and the un-vaccinated will be the ones to suffer huge numbers of virus deaths instead of the vaccinated.

That is a... morbidly interesting... way to put it, sure.

- - - Updated - - -

I went to UCSF with my wife this morning. Ended up being part of the study because they thought I might have been asymptomatic. The doctor used to go to school with my sister in Lomalinda, so I have known her for a long time. Very chatty Cathy.

She explained that the Delta variant has the ability to fool the antibodies. By design, antibodies are picky, attaching only to a small number of places on a virus’ spike protein on the surface of the virus cells. Mutating viruses, like the Delta variant, can change their spike protein and leave the antibodies without a target. T-cells, unlike antibodies which swarm the viruses directly, hunt for already infected cells. They look for and chow down the entire viral genome. T-cells can’t prevent infection, but they can limit the spread in the body. T-cells are also much harder to fool. So far, in vitro, they have not found a variant that can do that. Including Lambda.

At least that’s the theory behind why, despite the breakthrough cases, hospitalization among fully vaccinated segment of the US population is near zero. The UCSF study that we are in is trying to confirm that.

I guess that really is the best of both worlds, then.

Or at least it would be, if everyone were vaccinated.

[Wezmon]

Hope it stays down there cause I read that a couple epidemiologists saying delta variant maybe the most contagious virus ever, which is pretty fucking terrifying

Not sure where on earth they got their info from but its nowhere near the case. Current estimates for Delta have an R0 of 6 with an upper R0 of 9. There are loads of viruses with a higher R0, eg chicken pox is 10-12 and measles is a massive 16-18.

[Shadowferal]

...Marburg virus being contained in Guinea, and then there's CDC investigating two deaths from rare bacterial disease only found in tropical climates

The CDC announced a new fatal case of melioidosis, also known as Whitmore's disease, that occurred in Georgia, joining three other cases in three different states - Texas, Kansas and Minnesota - which all appear to closely match through genome sequencing.

Although there seems to be a common source for the cases, none of the infected individuals had traveled internationally, which is odd, however, as the strains seem to be linked to those found in South Asia.

"The bacteria normally lives in moist soil and water. However, in rare cases, it has also been found to contaminate wet or moist products in the areas where the bacteria are common," they added.

Two of the four cases have proved fatal, while the other two patients survived.

One of the patients was a 4-year-old girl from Texas who was on a ventilator for weeks and has brain damage from the disease, The Dallas Morning News reported.

[beanman12345]

Not sure where on earth they got their info from but its nowhere near the case. Current estimates for Delta have an R0 of 6 with an upper R0 of 9. There are loads of viruses with a higher R0, eg chicken pox is 10-12 and measles is a massive 16-18.

Top epidemiologist: Delta variant is 'maybe the most contagious virus' ever

Though headline is misleading a bit.

[Rasulis]

I guess that really is the best of both worlds, then.

Or at least it would be, if everyone were vaccinated.

Yep. The mRNA vaccines are ridiculously good beyond the wildest expectations. The study is also trying to determine if after a Delta variant breakthrough case the B-cells will start producing antibodies that recognize the Delta variant spike protein. Thus prevent future infection by Delta variant.

[Forogil]

Top epidemiologist: Delta variant is 'maybe the most contagious virus' ever

Though headline is misleading a bit.

More than a bit; he says 'most contagious in living memory' - but I'm pretty sure that measles and chickenpox/shingles are within living memory - as people actually get those diseases today; and generally seen as more contagious. Technically they are only that contagious among unvaccinated group that haven't been previously exposed and don't take pre-cautions - the same applies to covid-19.

[DarkAmbient]

I'm so tired of seeing all these anti-vax and conspiracy theorist freaks all over news comment sections everywhere, and infesting social media with their bullshit. It's maddening and exhausting but you can't just let them get away with it unchallenged. The one consolation is that they're in an ever-shrinking minority but you wouldn't know it from the sheer volume of noise they make.

[Rasulis]

It appears that not everybody will kowtow to De Santis.

Florida School Official Willing to Face DeSantis' Financial Risks in Order to Require Masks

"It's better for us to take the financial risk than to put the safety and health of 29,000 students and 4,000 staff members," Alachua County School Board Vice Chair Tina Certain told Newsweek. "I stand by that."

In a statement made Tuesday, Miami-Dade County Public Schools' superintendent Alberto Carvalho said, "At no point shall I allow my decision to be influenced by a threat to my paycheck, a small price to pay considering the gravity of this issue and the potential impact to the health and well-being of our students and dedicated employees."

[cubby]

Florida’s [COVID] Death Toll Now Exceeds DeSantis’ Margin of Victory.

Motherfucking GQP dipshit ass-clowns killing children for their own political gain. Fucker needs to be in jail at this point. He's also literally threatening to not pay school administrators if they try and put a mask requirement.

How do you spell treason? GQP.

- - - Updated - - -

It appears that not everybody will kowtow to De Santis.

Florida School Official Willing to Face DeSantis' Financial Risks in Order to Require Masks

"It's better for us to take the financial risk than to put the safety and health of 29,000 students and 4,000 staff members," Alachua County School Board Vice Chair Tina Certain told Newsweek. "I stand by that."

In a statement made Tuesday, Miami-Dade County Public Schools' superintendent Alberto Carvalho said, "At no point shall I allow my decision to be influenced by a threat to my paycheck, a small price to pay considering the gravity of this issue and the potential impact to the health and well-being of our students and dedicated employees."

Unsung heroes here.

[Rasulis]

DeSantis is playing chicken with Covid.

HHS reported 15,169 inpatient beds in use for COVID-19, an increase of 1,192 from Monday’s report. And that statistical leap came from 231 hospitals, 20 fewer than were reporting to HHS the previous day. So the average number of COVID-19 patients per hospital shot from 55.7 to 65.7.

That represents 27.6% of the hospital patients in those 231 hospitals. Nationally, 10.1% of patients are hospitalized for COVID-19.

Intensive care units reported a congruent increase, of 2725 patients to 3,060. That’s 47.2% of those hospitals’ ICU beds, compared with 21.3% across the United States.

Also, there are 73,300 beds in use for COVID-19 in the U.S., meaning Florida accounts for 20.7% of the nation’s COVID-19 hospital patients. The state has 17.9% of the country’s 17,140 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds.

[Zantos]

It's not. Again, lambda is a non-issue right now.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/lambd...stance-5195973
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...nt-to-vaccines

Two studies saying otherwise. Both stating that it may be highly resistant and able to bypass the neutralizing antibodies in the vaccines. One as recently as 6 days ago. Its still under investigation. If it gains traction, it could be bad. Heck, the delta variant could still mutate to do the same thing, as its having far more chances to spread right now. We shouldn't be doing "non-issue right now" bs. We are in a pandemic, where its still mutating to potentially make the vaccines we have a moot point. Back to square 1 at that point.

[PhaelixWW]

https://www.verywellhealth.com/lambd...stance-5195973
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...nt-to-vaccines

Two studies saying otherwise. Both stating that it may be highly resistant and able to bypass the neutralizing antibodies in the vaccines. One as recently as 6 days ago. Its still under investigation. If it gains traction, it could be bad. Heck, the delta variant could still mutate to do the same thing, as its having far more chances to spread right now. We shouldn't be doing "non-issue right now" bs. We are in a pandemic, where its still mutating to potentially make the vaccines we have a moot point. Back to square 1 at that point.

Okay, you need to pay attention here, because now I'm just repeating everything more than once.

Literally the first line of the first article:

Similar to the Delta variant, the Lambda variant may be more infectious and vaccine resistant, according to a recent study in Japan.

Delta is also more resistant to vaccines, and is also more infectious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. Whether or not lambda is more resistant to vaccines than delta is largely irrelevant, because it is losing ground to delta.

Also from the same article:

The researchers did not specify whether the Lambda variant was more dangerous than Delta. However, they pointed out that since the World Health Organization (WHO) designates Lambda as a Variant of Interest (VOI) rather than a Variant of Concern (VOC), people may not consider Lambda as an ongoing threat.

The Delta variant now accounts for more than 93% of COVID-19 cases in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). There are 938 COVID-19 cases caused by the Lambda variant, which is less than 1% of the nation’s total cases.

And from the second article:

There’s no reason to sound the alarm yet...

I'll also point out that your use of the phrase "highly resistant [to vaccines]" is nearly as suspect as your prior claim that lambda was "immune to vaccines". The data suggests that it is resistant, not that it is "highly" resistant. Again, I'll point out that delta is also resistant to vaccines, and is thoroughly dominating all other variants at this time, including lambda.

Lambda is a non-issue right now.

But here's some more literature...

NPR: The Lambda Variant: What You Should Know And Why Experts Say Not To Panic

So do we need to add lambda to our list of big worries in the U.S.? Not yet, according to public health officials and experts.

While there hasn't been clear head-to-head data, the evidence so far does not suggest the lambda variant has any great advantage over the delta variant, Ray says. "Delta is clearly dominating right now. And so I think our focus can remain on delta as a hallmark of a highly infectious variant."

NYTimes: Covid’s Lambda Variant: Worth Watching, but No Cause for Alarm

“I think some of the interest is just based on the fact that there’s a new variant, and it has a new name,” said Nathaniel Landau, a microbiologist at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine who is studying the new coronavirus variants.

“But I don’t think there’s any more reason to be concerned than before we knew about this variant,” Dr. Landau added. No evidence so far suggests that Lambda will outcompete Delta, the highly transmissible variant that’s now dominating most of the world. “There’s no reason to think that this is now something worse than Delta.”

Pablo Tsukayama, a microbiologist at Cayetano Heredia University in Peru who documented Lambda’s emergence, concurred. Latin America has “limited capacity” to do genomic surveillance and follow-up laboratory investigations of new variants, he said. That has led to an information gap fueling concerns about Lambda. “I don’t think it’s going to be worse than any of the ones that we have already,” he said. “It’s just that we know so little that it lends itself to a lot of speculation.”

The Hill: What you need to know about the lambda coronavirus variant

Experts are confident that the vaccines available for the coronavirus, including Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson and Astrazeneca, are effective at preventing severe illness from the delta variant of the coronavirus. A preliminary study, which has not been peer reviewed yet and is available as a preprint, suggests that the antibodies induced by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are able to neutralize the lambda variant.

One of the study authors, Nathaniel Landau, said to the Post, “The vaccines induce such good antibodies that even if the virus is a little bit resistant, they are still quite sufficient to kill the virus.”

Barrons: Should the Lambda Variant Worry You? Not if You’re Vaccinated.

Should the Lambda variant scare you? In a word, no. Research is still preliminary, but while early data show that Lambda is indeed more resistant to antibodies raised against other virus variants, the antibody levels in vaccinated people are more than sufficient to prevent disease symptoms from Lambda exposure.

WaPo: What to know about the lambda variant of the coronavirus

Infectious-disease experts in the United States aren’t sounding any alarms about lambda yet. Its progress here has been slow, with fewer than 700 cases identified since it emerged in the country months ago. Moreover, experts say the threat from lambda is insignificant next to the highly transmissible delta variant, which is spreading rapidly among unvaccinated people and causing hospitalizations to spike for the first time in months.

“It is not anywhere near as concerning as the delta variant,” said S. Wesley Long, medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist Hospital, which on Monday reported its first case of the lambda variant. “That’s the engine that’s going to be driving the surge in the U.S.”

Lambda has quietly circulated for months in the United States without taking off. By comparison, the delta variant was first identified in the United States in March and now accounts for more than 80 percent of new infections over the past two weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“What’s going on here in the U.S. is lambda is competing against the delta variant. And I think it’s losing the competition,” said Peter Stoilov, an associate professor of biochemistry at West Virginia University who studies the coronavirus variants. “The question is how competitive this variant is going to be. I don’t see it spreading anywhere near as fast as the delta.”

Newsweek: Here's Where the Lambda COVID Variant is Currently Spreading

While the variant appears to have torn through South America, health officials say Lambda is not spreading as rapidly on a global scale as the Delta variant, which accounts for more than 93 percent of circulating coronavirus cases in the U.S.

Dr. Anna Durbin, a professor in the Department of International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told Newsweek on Thursday that she doesn't anticipate for Lambda to surge in the U.S. because it will be competing against the already dominant Delta variant, which has similar mutations to C.37.

The WHO's COVID-19 technical lead, Maria Van Kerkhove, also told reporters last week that the Lambda variant doesn't seem to "take off once it's reported in a country."

CNN: What experts are learning about Lambda, a coronavirus 'variant of interest'

The variant is not nearly as worrisome as the Delta variant in the US, which has been driving a rise in cases nationwide, but early studies suggest that it has mutations that make it more transmissible than the original strain of the coronavirus.

"Lambda has mutations that are concerning but this variant remains quite rare in the US despite being around for several months," Dr. Preeti Malani, chief health officer in the division of infectious diseases at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, wrote in an email on Friday.

Reuters: Explainer: Beyond Delta, scientists are watching new coronavirus variants

The Lambda variant has attracted attention as a potential new threat. But this version of the coronavirus, first identified in Peru in December, may be receding, several infectious disease experts told Reuters.

The WHO classifies Lambda as a variant of interest, meaning it carries mutations suspected of causing a change in transmissibility or causing more severe disease, but it is still under investigation. Lab studies show it has mutations that resist vaccine-induced antibodies.

Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, said the percentage of new Lambda cases reported to GISAID, a database that tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants, has been dropping, a sign that the variant is waning.

In a recent call with the CDC, disease experts said Lambda did not appear to be causing increased transmissibility, and vaccines appear to be holding up well against it, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center who attended the discussion.

- - - Updated - - -

By April, Lambda accounted for 97% of cases in Peru.

Now, delta has found a foothold in Peru and is expanding rapidly.

[Forogil]

https://www.verywellhealth.com/lambd...stance-5195973
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...nt-to-vaccines

Two studies saying otherwise.

I really dislike such alarmist headlines: the say "could" be vaccine resistant, and "might" be resistant to vaccines.

It's not vaccine resistant enough to matter - they know that, but by adding "could" and "might" they are both alarmist and technically correct. Lambda has been spreading at least since December last year; and Delta since about the same time (the exact time is unknown - sources say "late 2020").

And for immune-system escape one of the mutations is on L452 - both Delta and Lambda have that - just different ones (Kappa that share a common ancestor with Delta also have the same one as Delta). A problem with the WHO-naming is that it sounds as though Kappa and Lambda are a lot later than Delta - but that's not the case.

[PhaelixWW]

I really dislike such alarmist headlines: the say "could" be vaccine resistant, and "might" be resistant to vaccines.

Then you'll get a kick out of the full line that I partially quoted in my previous response (from the second link):

There’s no reason to sound the alarm yet, but there may—just may—perhaps be reason to think that there’s a chance that the alarm may have to be sounded at some point about the lambda COVID-19 mutation, or C.37.

I mean, that's, what... seven different qualifiers in that sentence?

What's the fucking point of even saying it, then? Like, just say "we're keeping en eye on it" and call it a day. And honestly, the single word "yet" at the very end of the first phrase really says as much, anyway.

[Mayhem]

Well staffing and supplying a hospital to pandemic levels and then increasing it even more 365 days a year would be a massive cost to patients.

Not saying it shouldn't be done, but in a normal year you are no where near capacity and it still cost over a Trillion dollars a year to run all of our hospitals in this country.

So what do you do when bed levels go back to historical norms and the majority of them are empty but still need staff and supplies?




In the US non profit and govt/state run hospitals still outnumber for profit hospitals by a huge margin.

Honestly I know working in the healthcare/insurance field in the past if you didn't know the hospital's profit/non profit position you really would hardly be able to tell the difference in the way they are run, staffed and managed.

Also there has been a hell of a lot more investments in medical infrastructure by for profit organizations then non profit or govt run facilities.



https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Number of Nongovernment Not-for-Profit Community Hospitals
2,946

Number of Investor-Owned (For-Profit) Community Hospitals
1,233

Number of State and Local Government Community Hospitals
962

Number of Federal Government Hospitals
208

Number of Nonfederal Psychiatric Hospitals
625

Other 2 Hospitals
116

Back in 2000 the size distribution of for-profit and non-profit hospitals was almost equal. And for-profit was ever-increasing since the 60s so I'd say the number of hospitals is not the best stat to look at.

https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/vie...xt=hcmg_papers

[Hollycakes]

Talked to my maga aunt today.
She won't get the vaxx.
Doesn't trust it.
I mentioned operation warp speed and trumps claims of ownership on said vaxx and how he repeatedly takes credit for it and...
Nothing.
Brain is jello pudding apparently.

Something something msm, something something libtard something something when the power grid goes down who will we turn to etc etc etc.

Did I mention she's a scientist?
oyus.

Take that brain.

[Corvus]

Well, Delta is well and truely in Australia now and we know exactly how it got here. A driver for international flight crews contracted it from them and then sent it wild through all of eastern Australia, resulting in the three most populous states being in various stages of lockdown. I can't recall if he hadn't been vaccinated or didn't wear a mask or what it was, but not all precautions were taken and the rest is history.

Worse, there are some truely dumb people out there who have made it worse. In one case two removalists, who knew they had it, still went into two other states while not wearing masks and spread it there. They also passed it on to their mother who died of it. And we just had another case which is worse. A man who doesn't believe in covid travelled to the main anti-vax region in Australia with no mask, while being out in the community and isn't helping authorities trace his movements. Unlike in the US, this region isn't on the right - it is in fact heavily a hippie, alternative lifestyle region with a vaccine rate that would make third world nations look good. They are also heavily into anti-5G and other conspiracy theories.

But we also have the good old right-wing anti-vaxxers, chief among them a failed politician who sees himself as the Trump of Australia, parroting pretty much everything Trump says, as well as spreading massive amounts of covid misinformation. (Seriously, his slogan is Make Australia Great Again.) He has also launched numerous court challenges against Western Australia, where I live, to the point the government is trying to get him labeled a vexatious litigator. And he just did it again yesterday - he is threatening legal action unless the state stops ALL covid-19 vaccination, with the usual nonsense about it not being safe, it doesn't work, people are being coerced into taking it etc etc and so on. Thats probably because way back at the beginning of the pandemic he bought a massive quantity of Trumps favourite wonder drug and can't get rid of it because it doesn't work. So, yeah, he's about a good (and crooked) a businessman as Trump as well.