Biden / Harris Focused Discussion

[davesurfer]

Overall, the main differences I see between what Trump agreed to and what Biden did.

1) Biden has us out by September 11th while Trump had us out by May 1st.

2) Biden is scrambling to get people out at the last minute while Trump seemingly was planning on abandoning them to die as shown by #1's more rushed timeline combine with how he was allowing Steven Miller and his people to try and deny our allies there entry which is par the course with how he also abandoned the Kurds to Turkey and with how he literally deported active duty soldiers and their families.

So while Biden was still massively superior to what Trump had originally done, that is still a really low bar and he should have done better, even taking into account his cabinet took time to appoint and Trump made sure he didn't get intel till the latest possible moment.

Anything I miss on this analysis or any facts I missed?

Yes, Trump isn't President, didn't make the plan nor the current decision. It is lazy to predict what would have happened because you could never know if it would have been true or not. This obsession everyone has with Trump is amazing. Biden has been President for 7 months. He makes the decision, he pulls the trigger.

Your comment seems to imply that they didn't have enough time due to Trump. If one stipulates that fact, it would indicate they went before they were ready. That is a serious indictment on the current administration that they would make such a serious decision while not prepared. If you were not implying that, then I guess it had no relevance to the point

[Fugus]

Anyone with a history of credibility see if I missed anything?

[Zan15]

I think you are conflating the issues, much like Pres Biden is. The debate isn't about SHOULD we get out, but HOW we did it. Getting out has bi-partisan support. But blaming Trump is silly, as Biden has over ridden every other policy, so if Biden didn't want to get out he didn't have to. He wanted to, like most Dems, Inds, and Repubs. 75% of Americans wanted out.

As for the election, it will be a simple question: "Can we name one thing that is better today, than Jan 20th (besides mean tweets)?" That is the question people will have to ask themselves and answer

Major issues Americans are worried about (per surveys)
Crime
Immigration
COVID
Energy Prices
Economy/Inflation

If you feel most of these are better today, then you vote status quo if you feel most are worse, you vote for the other party. This crisis is just a way to gauge if you think the person in power is competent.

its a bit more than just is something better, but why we got here.

COVID is better depending on when your starting point is. But the reason why its not overall better then a few months ago mostly has to do with republicans and those who support republicans. But Biden's ratings will suffer because of it.

Immigration is worse only from a # standpoint, nothings really changed in its problems and failed solutions.

Crime, yah its up if you measure from a year ago when everyone was locked up and bunkered down. the 5 year trend is really not that insane as far as growth, but a good opponent can just use the "in the past year crime is up 50%" moniker

Energy Prices. Half and Half but have nothing to do with Biden no matter how much they cry about one non-built pipeline that would have just replaced oil already being transported by other means.

Also oil is lower right now then it was in 2018-2019
Natural gas is cheaper now than 2019 and same as 2018.
Gas prices are about on par with 2018 and only 10% off 2019 prices.

The pricing and supply problem started in 2018 with shale debt and shutdowns, it grew in 2019. 2019-2020 it was all about covid and Russia/OPEC manipulated price/supply controls all of which trump and his administration ignored and did nothing about. At least Biden is trying to put pressure on them.


what is higher is the margins. The spread on the spot prices vs consumer prices is huge right now. 2.02 on gas but average right now is 3.17. 1.15 spread

8/21/21 2.02 -- 3.17 = 1.15
8/17/20 (though it was so volatile) 1.28 -- 2.166 = .89
8/19/19 1.64 -- 2.598 = .96
8/20/18 2.07 ----2.821 = .75
8/20/17 1.66 --- 2.360 = .70

So which leads me to inflation. Sure there is inflationary pressures because of wage pressure and supply problems. But what is being missed is businesses/corporations are taking advantage of this and increased demand/supply issues and JACKING up prices BIGLY. Way more than is needed to cover cost. Never look a gift horse in the mouth when you can blame someone else for higher prices right?

Economy. Democrats are doing a horrific job of selling the fact that the economy right now is doing much better. Republicans were very good at deflecting all economic news to the only good thing that was happening, the stock market. Now the are deflecting everything to inflation and debt (what a shock debt matters again).



It all comes down to, once again, failure of the democratic party to sell the story on all these topics except for COVID.

[davesurfer]

Anyone with a history of credibility see if I missed anything?

HA, so I didn't agree with you and suddenly I am not credible? Seems like you are not interested in intellectual discourse, just echo chamber thinking? You appear to be no better than the die hard Trump supporters. There was a time when people could actually have an exchange of ideas.

For someone like me, who sits in the middle, it is discouraging to try to have an honest conversation with anyone on either side.

[Fugus]

HA, so I didn't agree with you and suddenly I am not credible? Seems like you are not interested in intellectual discourse, just echo chamber thinking? You appear to be no better than the die hard Trump supporters. There was a time when people could actually have an exchange of ideas.

For someone like me, who sits in the middle, it is discouraging to try to have an honest conversation with anyone on either side.

I don't recognize the profile name and the website unfortunately has yet to implement a feature to see what your previous name was and your comment completely sidestepped the question.

You have zero credibility because you have zero credibility.

Edit: If it makes you feel any better, you aren't at the bottom of the list.

DocSavageFan/TexasRules, and Shalcker both have negative credibility.

[davesurfer]

It all comes down to, once again, failure of the democratic party to sell the story on all these topics except for COVID.

This is the key. It is all about perception and the surveys about Americans concerns can't be ignored.

On COVID it is flaring up in Red States absolutely, but last year is was Blue States. NY, CA, IL, MI were major problems and it was last administrations fault. But when the President said he had a plan to make it go away during the election, he is tied to it. Personally I don't blame either guy for it, it is up to individual behavior.

Immigration has been an issue for every President, you are spot on that it is broken. But numbers are up, at record highs. This always is an issue for every President, especially when they ran on it

Crime - Stats can be manipulated, but to ignore the brazen daily daylight violence and say it is normal is a bit disingenuous. Perhaps now that there are camera's everywhere we see it more than the past. BUT the perception of the citizens in most major cities is that it is dangerous to be out after dark. Look at the NYC Mayoral race, crime was THE issue and that was a Dem primary. So Dem messaging isn't the issue here (well maybe the defund campaign is). This is no longer a partisan issue

Energy/Gas - the issue has nothing to due with the pipeline. It is a complex global market. Again the perception is that currently we are shutting down a pipeline here, removing sanctions on the Russian pipeline, stopping issuing drilling leases, asking OPEC to pump more. But the reality is when people go to the pump it is significantly more expensive. It is one of the most regressive taxes. Studies show the poorer you are the less fuel efficient car you have and the further you drive to work

These are the issues that people will be debating, and will drive the results of the 2022 election (at least as of now). Whomever manages the perception best wins. The problem for whatever party is in power is that they own the issues and have to defend current policies, and the other side gets to snipe. Combine this with the fact there is always more engagement from voters out of power than the ones in power.

Here is a new poll that the President will have to combat, and as a leader of his party it will stick to others during the next election

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...wal/ar-AANB2ji

- - - Updated - - -

I don't recognize the profile name and the website unfortunately has yet to implement a feature to see what your previous name was and your comment completely sidestepped the question.

You have zero credibility because you have zero credibility.

Edit: If it makes you feel any better, you aren't at the bottom of the list.

DocSavageFan/TexasRules, and Shalcker both have negative credibility.

I have been a member since 2008 and never changed my name. Don't worry you didn't hurt my feelings, being in the middle gets me sniped by both sides. That is unfortunately what discourse has come to. Keeping lists...hmmm

[Fugus]

I have been a member since 2008 and never changed my name. Don't worry you didn't hurt my feelings, being in the middle gets me sniped by both sides. That is unfortunately what discourse has come to. Keeping lists...hmmm

Well, to give you the benefit of the doubt on this. I don't discount that Biden screwed up, that is universally agreed. He screwed up on this. It is still an improvement on what we originally negotiated and what was being setup to happen if Trump continued.

My point I was trying to bring was that, as bad as this was, it is still majorly superior to what was originally setup.

Remember, Trump negotiated this February as last year and negotiated this with the Taliban leadership while excluding the Afgan leadership. During the time afterward, he left Steven Miller to continue the massively racist stuff him, Trump, and Sessions had set into motion in just about every area they could from kidnapping children from their parents at our southern boarder, deporting the parents and keeping the children, and even torturing the adults and caught even giving some of the women forced hysterectomies. Then you have where he deported active duty soldiers and their families who were serving as a condition of their citizenship, or what he did to the Kurds.

So, we have the Afgan government excluded from an agreement negotiated and signed by Trump to effect this withdraw.

Then, we had Trump's tantrum when he lost and going through everything he could to deny Biden the intel needed to continue this. The man was petty enough to fired the person who was supposed to open the door for Biden his opening day and started a terrorist attack on the capital building.

Trump was even reported to have asked if he could move the withdraw up to happen before he left office. All that with none of our assets here yet and leaving our translators and stuff to die in true Trumpian fashion.

So while Biden screwed up, it is still massively superior to what the original plan entailed. And I still wonder just how much Biden could impact given his secretaries appointments (Not sure when the secretaries needed to coordinate this were put in place), to get them all up to speed with the intel being withheld at the beginning, while still not going too far out of the scope and timeline that Trump and brokered in the withdraw agreement he signed.

And yes, technically Biden could have torn up the withdraw agreement and stayed, but that would have largely been a "Penny wise, Pound Foolish" approach as we aren't doing much good there unless we wanted to stay in another 30-40 years and would have to address the corruption problem that Trump, Obama (With Biden as VP), and Bush Jr had largely ignored.

Also, when you look at how quickly Afgan fell, it looks like the Military had largely agreed to this before the Taliban moved in. Which given the optics of having the United States negotiate with the Taliban while leaving the actual government out of the negotiations, even if the Taliban wasn't largely in their military ranks, the optics of that alone would have killed much of the moral and will to fight among any legit military they had.

[Zan15]

This is the key. It is all about perception and the surveys about Americans concerns can't be ignored.

On COVID it is flaring up in Red States absolutely, but last year is was Blue States. NY, CA, IL, MI were major problems and it was last administrations fault. But when the President said he had a plan to make it go away during the election, he is tied to it. Personally I don't blame either guy for it, it is up to individual behavior.

Difference is last year when it was bad in blue states it was also bad in red states. there was also not options or they were not fully rolled out when it was more of a "blue" state problem. Also didn't help that blue states are the primary entry points into the united states and the most densely populated area's.

Blue states did everything possible to save lives. Red state now are doing everything possible to save businesses and save/progress their political careers

But try to explain all that to most uneducated voters and those who don't bother learning and forget those who are hardcore right.

Immigration has been an issue for every President, you are spot on that it is broken. But numbers are up, at record highs. This always is an issue for every President, especially when they ran on it

Yah its sad, but they were records under trump that were also broken. Its all about perception and selling it.

President, you are spot on that it is broken. But numbers are up, at record highs. This always is an issue for every President, especially when they ran on it

Crime - Stats can be manipulated, but to ignore the brazen daily daylight violence and say it is normal is a bit disingenuous. Perhaps now that there are camera's everywhere we see it more than the past. BUT the perception of the citizens in most major cities is that it is dangerous to be out after dark. Look at the NYC Mayoral race, crime was THE issue and that was a Dem primary. So Dem messaging isn't the issue here (well maybe the defund campaign is). This is no longer a partisan issue

Nah go back and look at the 3-5-10 years prior to covid it was worse. Look specifically at the increase from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019

NYC specifically its not really changed from last year and its down over the 2 year period and way down over the 5-10-15-20 year periods

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/dow...en-us-city.pdf

Its all a perception, media and political issue now.

[Bodakane]

HA, so I didn't agree with you and suddenly I am not credible? Seems like you are not interested in intellectual discourse, just echo chamber thinking? You appear to be no better than the die hard Trump supporters. There was a time when people could actually have an exchange of ideas.

For someone like me, who sits in the middle, it is discouraging to try to have an honest conversation with anyone on either side.

If you were truly in the middle, you wouldn't be comparing both sides right now.

[Endus]

If you were truly in the middle, you wouldn't be comparing both sides right now.

"The middle" isn't even something that should be held up as a noble position.

The "middle" between child beating and protecting children from beating is "some child beating".
The "middle" between Nazism and social justice is "light Nazism".

You'll note that in these cases, "the middle" just means "I'm actually totally fine with the worst extremes, and will make no effort to fight them".

"The middle" is very often just ground held by people who really side with extremists, but don't want to come right out and admit it.

[Bodakane]

"The middle" isn't even something that should be held up as a noble position.

The "middle" between child beating and protecting children from beating is "some child beating".
The "middle" between Nazism and social justice is "light Nazism".

You'll note that in these cases, "the middle" just means "I'm actually totally fine with the worst extremes, and will make no effort to fight them".

"The middle" is very often just ground held by people who really side with extremists, but don't want to come right out and admit it.

Yup.

its either cowardice to admit your side with nazis or an argument ploy.

Either way, its pathetic.

[Gaidax]

Anyone with a history of credibility see if I missed anything?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan...ighting_season

It's like trivial thing to know really.

Now this does not mean that Trump would have executed this better or worse, but late spring date makes more sense historically because it's when fighting is only starting and Taliban might not have been able to make as rapid of advance giving those extra few weeks for more orderly withdrawal.

Now of course you can slam your ears and eyes shut as "not being credible" - as in not fitting your narrative that withdrawal target being at literally heat of the fighting season in Afghanistan is probably not the best idea to begin with, but that's really a you problem.

Like in case of Trump you could actually justify May 1 by exactly above and it would make sense, where in case of Biden - 9/11? Sounds like a pretty date to mark, very Trump-like if you ask me.

[Fugus]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan...ighting_season

It's like trivial thing to know really.

Now this does not mean that Trump would have executed this better or worse, but late spring date makes more sense historically because it's when fighting is only starting and Taliban might not have been able to make as rapid of advance giving those extra few weeks for more orderly withdrawal.

Now of course you can slam your ears and eyes shut as "not being credible" - as in not fitting your narrative that withdrawal target being at literally heat of the fighting season in Afghanistan is probably not the best idea to begin with, but that's really a you problem.

Like in case of Trump you could actually justify May 1 by exactly above and it would make sense, where in case of Biden - 9/11? Sounds like a pretty date to mark, very Trump-like if you ask me.

Interesting. Does postpone the mayhem till afterward to try and dodge the blame.

[Gaidax]

Interesting. Does postpone the mayhem till afterward to try and dodge the blame.

-or-

Having the opportunity to evacuate people before Taliban is even near Kabul and rest city centers. People here think Kabul is bad with civvies trying to grab a taking off plane and falling to their deaths. Can only imagine what it's like in Kandahar and few other major cities, where it's already lost and Taliban going house by house settling scores already or a month down the road with little hope of escape.

Now, you are assuming that Trump would have fucked it up too, but damn even Trump would be hard pressed to fuck it up this badly. I have no idea who Biden's advisors are, but they have done goofed this one and I bet heads will be served on a platter down the road.

I just hope that nothing even worse happens, like ISIS or Al Qaeda sneaking in a farewell gift or taking hostages, because then it would be a complete disaster.

[Fugus]

-or-

Having the opportunity to evacuate people before Taliban is even near Kabul and rest city centers. People here think Kabul is bad with civvies trying to grab a taking off plane and falling to their deaths. Can only imagine what it's like in Kandahar and few other major cities, where it's already lost and Taliban going house by house settling scores already or a month down the road with little hope of escape.

Now, you are assuming that Trump would have fucked it up too, but damn even Trump would be hard pressed to fuck it up this badly. I have no idea who Biden's advisors are, but they have done goofed this one and I bet heads will be served on a platter down the road.

I just hope that nothing even worse happens, like ISIS or Al Qaeda sneaking in a farewell gift or taking hostages, because then it would be a complete disaster.

Fair enough. Whether Trump actually had an intelligent thought on the timing or just failed upward choosing that time don’t know.

But the issue still comes about how could we withdraw that quickly with them doing fuck all last year and it taking months getting Biden’s appointments to even start it.

So how much of this is truly Biden dropping the ball versus no time to do anything due to no secretaries and no effort on the part of Trump and them.

[Gaidax]

Fair enough. Whether Trump actually had an intelligent thought on the timing or just failed upward choosing that time don’t know.

But the issue still comes about how could we withdraw that quickly with them doing fuck all last year and it taking months getting Biden’s appointments to even start it.

So how much of this is truly Biden dropping the ball versus no time to do anything due to no secretaries and no effort on the part of Trump and them.

I mean... no matter how it's spun - Biden is the president and he's not in the office since 3 days ago either. It was his decision to push back the date to 9/11, so you'd imagine US leadership and military was prepared with a plan there and it wasn't just because it was a nice round date there, right? (insert Padme "Right?" here).

I don't see how biased assumption that Trump would have somehow managed even worse or no better than this thing is an argument here. Isn't Biden and his administration supposed to be the competent ones?

There is some huge amount of copium and mental gymnastics being thrown around here, somehow it's Trump's fault that Biden's administration misread and mishandled the situation, but cheers Biden for executing ultimate Trump's pull out of Afghanistan.

The reality is simple, Biden gets to own up this shit for better and for worse. He will be the President who pulled back from senseless Afghanistan war, but he also will be the President who made a pigsty out of it.

[Fugus]

I mean... no matter how it's spun - Biden is the president and he's not in the office since 3 days ago either. It was his decision to push back the date to 9/11, so you'd imagine US leadership and military was prepared with a plan there and it wasn't just because it was a nice round date there, right. (insert Padme "Right?" here).

I don't see how biased assumption that Trump would have somehow managed even worse or no better than this thing is an argument here. Isn't Biden and his administration supposed to be the competent ones?

There is some huge amount of copium and mental gymnastics being thrown around here, somehow it's Trump's fault that Biden's administration misread and mishandled the situation, but cheers Biden for executing ultimate Trump's pull out of Afghanistan.

The reality is simple, Biden gets to own up this shit for better and for worse.

I understand that it was on Biden, but I don’t think the better option was to do it in May of this year and should have likely tried to push back til May of next year. But then we go with the co sequences of that.

As far as Trump doing it better or even on par with what Biden did, I really doubt that unless we are going along with leaving our people to die like Trump was doing.

And you mistakingly see people as trying to use Trump to justify Biden’s botching of it. It’s is more along the lines of pointing out that Biden inherited this shit show and just didn’t take the steps and postpone it to do it properly.

Biden does own his part in this, as does Trump. And if we want to be honest, so does Obama and Bush. This is a bipartisan fuck up.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually just started taking a better look at that link, if I am reading it right, Trumps would be even WORSE.

The fighting season is from April to October meaning that we would be out just for the bloodshed to start while September gets is out just around time to end putting our best time actually being as late in the year as possible.

[Gaidax]

I understand that it was on Biden, but I don’t think the better option was to do it in May of this year and should have likely tried to push back til May of next year. But then we go with the co sequences of that.

That there would be consequences and pictures would not be pretty either way is undeniable. I certainly don't think Trump would be leaving Kabul with a parade on May the 1st with giant flags and "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" stickers everywhere.

But I do most certainly think that at the very least you would not have to retreat while Taliban is already bloody there just outside the airport and the whole thing being based on their goodwill and how well they can keep their crazies in check for the next 2-3 weeks, which remains to be seen. And that's even not mentioning other city centers with plenty "assistants" that don't have airport to hide in anymore.

What Biden would do better? Maybe not pick inept advisers with 6-7 figure salaries who got caught with their pants completely down at one of the biggest and most important historic events of the Presidency. I have no doubt these idiots sold him this story about how Afghanistan will not fall, or not fall fast and what not other nonsense he embarrassed himself with. I'm sure once the dust settles, some of those advisors and experts will be quietly "retiring".

Biden does own his part in this, as does Trump. And if we want to be honest, so does Obama and Bush. This is a bipartisan fuck up.

Yes it was and very unfortunate at that, as my country is US ally and I'm not exactly here to dance on the rubble. I just feel things are a tad misleading here.

The fighting season is from April to October meaning that we would be out just for the bloodshed to start while September gets is out just around time to end putting our best time actually being as late in the year as possible.

That would be so assuming Taliban did not actually conquer whole Afghanistan by the end of this "season". But like, they already took over and it's done and this is not helping to thousands of people being locked in the airport and many more thousands dodging Taliban patrols, whims and wishes.

[Fugus]

@Gaidax

Dude, if you don't think Trump would be leaving with a Parade, I have a bridge to sell you, he tried to turn everything he did into some huge deal.

And if we did it as Trump had setup, we would still be here with even less done to prepare for it. Trump would probably had the Taliban help him put them down as he was working to prevent them coming to the US to begin with or at least allow them to do it without stopping them. Remember what he did to cross the street to a church for photos locally, what he did to the Kurds, and how he was basically blocking them from coming to the US.

What did Biden do better? He at least is making efforts to get people out.

Face it man. Biden, at his absolute worst possible outcome here would still be on par with Trump at his absolute reasonable best outcome here. And just making the attempt to get people out at the last minute still puts Biden ahead in that. Trump was trying to abandon them outright from all we can tell and even if Trump had won reelection, they would have still be there come May 1st except the Taliban would have all that more time to kill them easily.

Then you are still ignoring just how Trump invited the Taliban to the White House to negotiate this while shutting the Afgan government out and the impact that had on this whole situation too.

Either way you cut it, Biden's current outcome is still better than Trumps absolute best reasonable outcome given the trajectory we were on without you expecting Trump to spontaneously stop being Trump while the people who appointed to run stuff also spontaneously stopped being the exact person Trump hired them to be at that same time.


Biden fucked up in that he didn't do enough to clean up Trump's mess as we know Trump is a screw up and pretty much everything he negotiate or touches dies because he can't negotiate for crap when all the other people have to do is praise him and he gives them what they want so long as it doesn't come out of his personal pocket. But you have less than zero way of explaining how what Biden has done isn't still better than what Trump was sending us down.

[Muzjhath]

@Gaidax

Dude, if you don't think Trump would be leaving with a Parade, I have a bridge to sell you, he tried to turn everything he did into some huge deal.

And if we did it as Trump had setup, we would still be here with even less done to prepare for it. Trump would probably had the Taliban help him put them down as he was working to prevent them coming to the US to begin with or at least allow them to do it without stopping them. Remember what he did to cross the street to a church for photos locally, what he did to the Kurds, and how he was basically blocking them from coming to the US.

What did Biden do better? He at least is making efforts to get people out.

Face it man. Biden, at his absolute worst possible outcome here would still be on par with Trump at his absolute reasonable best outcome here. And just making the attempt to get people out at the last minute still puts Biden ahead in that. Trump was trying to abandon them outright from all we can tell and even if Trump had won reelection, they would have still be there come May 1st except the Taliban would have all that more time to kill them easily.

Then you are still ignoring just how Trump invited the Taliban to the White House to negotiate this while shutting the Afgan government out and the impact that had on this whole situation too.

Either way you cut it, Biden's current outcome is still better than Trumps absolute best reasonable outcome given the trajectory we were on without you expecting Trump to spontaneously stop being Trump while the people who appointed to run stuff also spontaneously stopped being the exact person Trump hired them to be at that same time.


Biden fucked up in that he didn't do enough to clean up Trump's mess as we know Trump is a screw up and pretty much everything he negotiate or touches dies because he can't negotiate for crap when all the other people have to do is praise him and he gives them what they want so long as it doesn't come out of his personal pocket. But you have less than zero way of explaining how what Biden has done isn't still better than what Trump was sending us down.

All of this. And the one who owns the original blame is Bush, Chaney, and Rumsfield. (Both Bush and Chaney should be sent to the Hague for warcrimes, Rumsfield would be included had he not died).
Obama did pretty much nothing to fix the original mess made. Just make fighting cheaper in manpower terms.
Trump fucked it up harder and made the Taliban worse.
Biden is stuck with a really bad bill.

Could this have been done better?
Yes, absolutely.
Could it have been done better than it was been with the history leading up to it?
Probably not, no. And Biden is the last chain here. Exactly what input he had on the policy Obama had is hard to tell.

When it comes down to it, this started with the mess Bush and his people created and most of the blame for the disastrous exit falls to them imo.