Fate of Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence

[Forogil]

oops was Al-Queda wasn't it? They have confused me for ages. Feels like they're the same.

They were very close in those years so the confusion is understandable; there are even rumors that it was an alliance sealed by marriage as in medieval times.

The current situation of al-Qaida and the Taliban is less clear - especially as al-Qaida is just a shadow of its former self; while the Islamic State seems to be fighting the Taliban.

Basically the Taliban were host to al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Obviously al-Qaida also has ties with some rich members in the gulf states.

So in summary the war against Afghanistan after 9/11 made considerable sense, but there was no plan afterwards. The war in Iraq made less sense.

[Shadowferal]

This also makes Afghanistan VERY dependent on China and the USSR. And at some point it won't matter if the US imposes sanctions on Afghanistan since Afghanistan will only be trading with Russia and its neighbors, which includes China..

Yeah...because the Taliban would still think the West was open to trade...because?

[Forogil]

As western financial institutions freeze the assets of more and more countries, other developing countries will move away from the west for just the reason you stated: if you put your money in western banks, you might not be able to get it back.

Just to be clear: the "world bank" isn't a bank.
It's an organization that tries to help developing countries - including reducing gender equality.

Obviously other institutions have also frozen assets, and the overwhelming majority of those funds were given by western donors - so moving away from the west to avoid this problem is to put it simply:

just flat out self defeating.

[Omega10]

Yeah...because the Taliban would still think the West was open to trade...because?

At this point, I'd say it does not really matter at all. In a month, there will be no more interactions between the US and Afghanistan. There will be no trade, and no real reason for communication. It could be argued that this is about the best possible solution to the problem. We hate them, they hate us, case closed. The US will go on to its next crisis of the day, our military units that are no longer in Afghanistan will have a new target, and the world will go on.

Who cares what the Taliban thinks at this point. But the US might care that other developing countries that it is trying to build relationships with, especially those in which we are in competition with China for. Leaders of these countries will have to deal with "Will you treat us the way you treated Afghanistan if things go sour between us and the US?".

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Just to be clear: the "world bank" isn't a bank.
It's an organization that tries to help developing countries - including reducing gender equality.

Obviously other institutions have also frozen assets, and the overwhelming majority of those funds were given by western donors - so moving away from the west to avoid this problem is to put it simply:

Afghanistan will get its source of money from China and Russia. Not self-defeating in the least for Afghanistan. If anything, it clarifies their situation.

[Forogil]

Common confusion with Americans. 9/11 was Saudis, not Afghans.

Several of those Saudis were trained in Afghanistan, and were under a Saudi leader based in Afghanistan.

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Afghanistan will get its source of money from China and Russia. Not self-defeating in the least for Afghanistan. If anything, it clarifies their situation.

Russia is likely to just do some symbolic stuff, since they don't have money to spend on such projects.
China will do more, if the Taliban are friendly back - we will see how those relations develop.

In general countries will see that Chinese aid comes with strings attached.

[Omega10]

Russia is likely to just do some symbolic stuff, since they don't have money to spend on such projects.
China will do more, if the Taliban are friendly back - we will see how those relations develop.

In general countries will see that Chinese aid comes with strings attached.

Western aid also comes with strings attached. We will see is the correct answer. Actually, we WON'T see since the US just won't care.

Any aid deals between Afghanistan and other countries, or even any developments in Afghanistan, will take months if not years to come to fruition. The US will be on to other things by then, possibly highlighting exaggerated versions of any atrocities that the Taliban commits, and possibly highlighting any advantages the Chinese are getting from their deals with Afghanistan.

I agree that Russia will be less of a factor than the Chinese. Not zero, but substantially less. Iran has also restarted selling petroleum products to Afghanistan now what Afghanistan has reduced (eliminated?) the tariffs that the previous government imposed. Iran has a HUGE vested interest in Afghanistan considering the length of their shared border, and the number of people in Afghanistan that are of the Iranian religion.

[Forogil]

This also makes Afghanistan VERY dependent on China and the USSR.

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in short USSR (or CCCP in Cyrillic), was dissolved in 1991; and the member states went their own ways - including the main one, Russia.

Just in case you want to catch up on recent events during the last three decades.

[Omega10]

No need to be snarky. Where I wrote USSR, I should have wrote Russia. Point conceded.

[Fuiking]

Several of those Saudis were trained in Afghanistan, and were under a Saudi leader based in Afghanistan.

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Russia is likely to just do some symbolic stuff, since they don't have money to spend on such projects.
China will do more, if the Taliban are friendly back - we will see how those relations develop.

In general countries will see that Chinese aid comes with strings attached.

wouldnt symbolic stuff... kind of embolden Uyghurs and Chechen.. wouldnt China and Russia not want that?

[Shadowferal]

Leaders of these countries will have to deal with "Will you treat us the way you treated Afghanistan if things go sour between us and the US?".

They won't ask such a question if they can say "No Taliban here, c'mon in!"

[Forogil]

wouldnt symbolic stuff... kind of embolden Uyghurs and Chechen.. wouldnt China and Russia not want that?

Yes, so Russia will likely just display the symbolic stuff to snub the west; not to embolden the Chechen.

And some of the Chinese strings are related to the Uyghurs.

[Draco-Onis]

Western aid also comes with strings attached. We will see is the correct answer. Actually, we WON'T see since the US just won't care.

I hate to say this but while the regular people won't care, the US government will care very much because anything involving Russia and China is heavily monitored.

[Milchshake]

Yes, so Russia will likely just display the symbolic stuff to snub the west; not to embolden the Chechen.

And some of the Chinese strings are related to the Uyghurs.

I'm old enough to remember *checks notes* last week;

• Russia said the Taliban takeover had improved the security situation in Afghanistan and there was "no alternative" to their rule.

Now Moscow's evacuating hundreds of its citizens from Kabul.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s defence ministry to begin evacuating its citizens from Kabul as the Kremlin expressed increased concern at the security situation in Afghanistan.

Moscow has sent four military transport planes to evacuate more than 500 people, the defence ministry said on Wednesday, including Russians and citizens of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine.

The move followed US president Joe Biden’s decision to stick to a plan to withdraw all remaining US troops by August 31, defying international pressure from European allies and others to allow more time for evacuations of foreign nationals and at-risk Afghans.

Putin’s order marks a shift in Russia’s stance on the Taliban’s takeover. The Kremlin’s envoys had previously welcomed the seizure of control by the Islamist group, describing it as a potential boost for security in the region.

I wonder if this is why RT/Sputnik/sockpuppets are pushing the "China is bad" narrative.
I guess that friendships built on bounty programs, aren't built to last

[Ripster42]

I wonder if this is why RT/Sputnik/sockpuppets are pushing the "China is bad" narrative.

Not sure why you think it would need to be foreign propaganda to think that an expanded chinese presence anywhere in the world would be bad.

[Mihalik]

You would be surprised how little it takes to maintain basic arsenal and vehicles. If they can create their own ammo for old soviet platforms like 7.62 and 5.45, there is nothing stopping them from making 5.56. And in a hypothetical scenario when something prevents them from doing so, they can always buy it from "US Allies", countries like Qatar and such. The same goes for vehicles - they have been able to maintain a fleet of Japanese trucks the entire war. Nothing stops them from continuing to do so. They do have more than enough cash for it.

The Taliban does not make its own ammo. They mostly get their stuff from the bucketloads of Soviet stockpiles still floating around in the region, last I checked the Soviets didn't really stockpile 5.56. It's also a fuckton easier to get off the shelf commercial Japanese car parts than to get spares for Humvees and choppers that do not use commercial components. Furthermore that shit is remotely not as easy to maintain as you think it is. Sure it can be done when you have access to overnight delivery, skilled labor (at least this, the Iranians have been flying F14s and Mirages for 50 years just off of that) and you're able to read a manual (54% of the Afghan population is illiterate), much harder when you have none of those things.

Sure a second hand market exists for anything and you can get anything if you really want to, but you might have noticed that Afghanistan is a landlocked country, so whatever they want to bring in, they need to buy abroad and ship through Pakistan, which means its gonna be expensive. So there's no point in making that any easier for them.

Now I am confused... Are you talking about the old US controlled government and US bombings, or the new Taliban government? I am sure that wives of Afghan soldiers that were bombed by US airstrikes and who were forced to prostitute themselves to higher ups in the military to get their dead husband's pensions would like to know that as well. Honestly, aside from few fashion issues, situation for them hardly seemed to change.

Also, since when does anyone from outside of Afghanistan suddenly care about women's rights over there? Where have you been for the past 35 years? That just seems like a whole load of BS and posturing. Quatar, UAE and SA called, asked to dial in all those Taliban feminists a notch.

Yes, a bunch of ME countries have fucking horrible track records on women's rights (still a million times better than the Taliban), but what is this fucking Whataboutist Taliban stanning you're engaged in?

[Edge-]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1908839.html

Gotta love capitalism. Erik Prince is out there selling tickets out of Afghanistan for $6.5K because of course there's a profit to be made.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1908161.html

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is quietly getting Afghan employees on charter flights (they declined) and was working to help get women at risk out. And she doesn't even seem like she's charging them an arm and a leg, either.

[Milchshake]

I was a lifelong liberal Democrat. Then Erik Prince flew me home from Afghanistan for only $6500.

Subscribe to find out why.

/s

[Fugus]

They are one of the most hardcore centre-right/biden fanboy posters on this forum lmao.


But why is it so hard to just wait till your ban on Bronzecondor expires?

Because that ruins his game of spreading crap all over the page and see how many are gullible enough to keep feeding him to see how long he can do it and how unreadable he can make the thread become.

The point was never to debate anything, it never was, it was just to see how far he could push it and how much he could derail and wreck the thread for those actually wanting to learn and stay informed.

[Gaaz]

The Taliban does not make its own ammo. They mostly get their stuff from the bucketloads of Soviet stockpiles still floating around in the region, last I checked the Soviets didn't really stockpile 5.56. It's also a fuckton easier to get off the shelf commercial Japanese car parts than to get spares for Humvees and choppers that do not use commercial components. Furthermore that shit is remotely not as easy to maintain as you think it is. Sure it can be done when you have access to overnight delivery, skilled labor (at least this, the Iranians have been flying F14s and Mirages for 50 years just off of that) and you're able to read a manual (54% of the Afghan population is illiterate), much harder when you have none of those things.

Sure a second hand market exists for anything and you can get anything if you really want to, but you might have noticed that Afghanistan is a landlocked country, so whatever they want to bring in, they need to buy abroad and ship through Pakistan, which means its gonna be expensive. So there's no point in making that any easier for them.



Yes, a bunch of ME countries have fucking horrible track records on women's rights (still a million times better than the Taliban), but what is this fucking Whataboutist Taliban stanning you're engaged in?

My point was that Taliban can acquire basic arsenal and maintain it if that is needed. Airforce is kind of outside of that scope. Nor is it needed for them frankly. After all, what are they going to use it for? I mean sure, it would be nice if you can spend $5m a sortie and drop 1 ton of a high explosive charge some 400km away. But for $5m (rough guesstimate on my part), they can hire 100 people to drive over there and purge the area of all complex life altogether. Ammo is not a problem if you can freely buy it in bulk from sympathizing countries.

As for "whataboutism", I am just pointing out the hypocrisy and lack of real concern. Most, if not all, people who are now screaming about women's rights over there never cared about it. Just like they do not care about hundreds of executions in SA of people who are considered "of wrong religion" (oh yeah, being a shia muslim is a capital offence in a sunni muslim country) or dared participate in public protests, tortures to get confessions for their sham trials and so on. 99% of women's right harpies are just butthurt that "our side" lost and bailed so fast, they were practically dropping shit on the runway. The quotes are there because "our side" is also a make belief, constructed in our minds by propaganda and lies. There only were 2 extremely bad players involved - the Taliban, and the kleptocratic military conglomerate with US based headquarters and locally sourced labor. None of them are "my" side. And none of them made any difference for women. If anyone starts screaming right now about this issue, then clearly they are just a part of the real problem in women's rights - a blind eye to anything that is not convenient at the moment. And if someone was to be serious about it, they would not waste breath on something they have practically zero chance of affecting and would turn to areas where real progress and real improvement can be made. Like the abovementioned states that are dependent on the US and can actually be pressured into improvement. But I guess inaction and posturing is easier and more profitable, so f*ck all human rights - we will keep ranting about Taliban instead.

[Gaidax]

Airforce is kind of outside of that scope. Nor is it needed for them frankly. After all, what are they going to use it for?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airstan_incident

You think that Taliban are just some unwashed bearded illiterate dudes, but they already had their hands on remnants of Russian supplied air force that they managed to keep some of it in flying condition last time. Some of them are not that dumb and there are ex-army pilots and staff around.

Even one decrepit plane is all they need to intercept a commercial flight and get themselves some hostages.