Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[szechuan]

No one, has reached herd immunity so far, and we not even close.

USA didn't reached Herd Immunity because of COVIDIOTS.

Its stupid to call someone stupid when we don't even understand what we speaking about.

Not true.

[Tuor]

USA didn't reached Herd Immunity because of COVIDIOTS.



Not true.

Read my previous posts and you might understand what we dealing with...

... Also the snowflake theory doesn't roll with me, your post is implying some sort of special circunstances that only happen in the USA, that isn't the case has other countries, and that includes mine, Portugal, has already hited a much higher vaccination and we still far away from getting herd immunity.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Read my previous posts and you might understand what we dealing with...

... Also the snowflake theory doesn't roll with me, your post is implying some sort of special circunstances that only happen in the USA, that isn't the case has other countries, and that includes mine, Portugal, has already hited a much higher vaccination and we still far away from getting herd immunity.

The USA started vaccinations months ago. Most countries didn't get the vaccine until recently. USA could have hit herd immunity by now if the anti-vaxxers that comprise about 15% of the population just weren't idiots.

Instead, we let the virus continue to spread and gain variants because "(((LIBERAL CONSPIRACIES)))" touted by idiots.

[Tuor]

The USA started vaccinations months ago. Most countries didn't get the vaccine until recently. USA could have hit herd immunity by now if the anti-vaxxers that comprise about 15% of the population just weren't idiots.

Instead, we let the virus continue to spread and gain variants because "(((LIBERAL CONSPIRACIES)))" touted by idiots.

Hitting herd immunity seems to be a Utopia, you would need an immunity rate over 90%, assuming that everyone is vaccinated, and current vaccines don't give that level of immunity with Delta strain, its as simple has this.

[Granyala]

It's not the flu.

Also, the flu, infects 25-50 million people a year. There is usually only about 225,000 hospitalizations from it, and roughly 20,000 dead from it a year on average. If the flu killed as many as it did for Covid, it would be an issue. Anyone like this bot saying it is a flu is fucking ignorant at best, uneducated at worst. Parroting fucking Fox News/Right wing youtubers.

Rather hilarious how people are incapable of readin what was written and then immediately latch onto "BUT IT AIN'T THE FLU!".
He did not say that Covid = flu. He said that it would be possible to politicize the flu to the same degree of Covid19, if anyone bothered to do so.

Now this statement may or may not be correct but judging by the pictures of foreign healthcare being brought to it's knees during the high point of past flu pandemics, I think there is at least a sliver of truth in there. We could have cared a lot more about the flu than we did. I'm sure we could have easily saved 5K lives/year or more had we worn masks during flu season. But for whatever reason we chose to basically ignore the issue for decades in western countries.

[szechuan]

Rather hilarious how people are incapable of readin what was written and then immediately latch onto "BUT IT AIN'T THE FLU!".
He did not say that Covid = flu. He said that it would be possible to politicize the flu to the same degree of Covid19, if anyone bothered to do so.

It was a false equivalent fallacy, he made a comparison to the modern flu.

He did not say that Covid = flu.

He said

It's cyclical. If the flu got politicized to the levels of COVID-19, it'd be the same situation.

[Granyala]

It was a false equivalent fallacy, he made a comparison to the modern flu.

LoL. Some mental gymnastics there, bro. /slang

Nowhere in the above equation did it state that [sickness1] = [sickness2].
The whole context is how we treat the condition socially.

[PhaelixWW]

USA didn't reached Herd Immunity because of COVIDIOTS.

What part of:

We wouldn't have reached herd immunity regardless.

...is hard to understand?

- - - Updated - - -

USA could have hit herd immunity by now if the anti-vaxxers that comprise about 15% of the population just weren't idiots.

With delta, the HIT is likely around 85-88%.

We still don't have a vaccine for the 12 and under, and they represent more than 15% of our population. Another up to 5% of the population are immuno-compromised and either can't take the vaccine or simply won't have it work for them. That's 20% of the population already that isn't able to take the vaccine right now, even if every single other person were to have taken it.

But even when the vaccine is approved for under 12s, you have to remember that the vaccine isn't 100% effective. It never was, and certainly not now that delta is king. At 70% effectiveness against delta, even if 95% of the population had the vaccine, it would still only amount to around 65% coverage, which is not enough to reach HIT.

So in order to get to the HIT, we'd have to have the full 95% population vaccinated as well as a delta booster that brought the vaccine back up to 90% (and probably more like 95%) effectiveness.

This is simply not going to happen.

[Forogil]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vacc...id-11627038001

That is the article I saw. Only a month old.

Another article without paywall: https://theconversation.com/the-myst...-so-far-161174
https://time.com/6073522/long-covid-prevalence/ 25% from that one.

Just to back up what I was saying, I know it can seem unrealistic, but some were saying 1 in 20 last year in October, now it is 1 in 3 or 4 with current strains like Delta.

Still exaggerated. Let's look at the report:

This has nothing to do with delta. Those are all from the same study, and it was about people who had COVID between February and December of 2020, back when delta didn't even exist.

So it defines "long covid" as covid lasting 30 days or more, for a disease that often lasts about that long.

Obviously some have problems the weeks after, but are those real long-term effects? And how does that compare to other diseases?
I could find lots of diagrams, but none showing the important one (might be my mistake): does those cases decay with time, if so how quickly?

To quote myself, they did study this specially in children and found that it is a lot more complicated:

New study finds that long covid is actually rare in children; and decreasing with decreasing age.

The more interesting finding is that long covid isn't that unique - as non-covid cases (who likely had other diseases cold, flu) also had similar long-term effects, and although it was a smaller percentage of those children (0.9% vs 3-5% for covid-cases after 4 weeks; and then decreasing), but in terms of seriousness:
"the symptom burden in children with what has been termed long COVID-19 was not greater than that in children with long illnesses due to causes other than SARS-CoV-2 infection."

So we might start talking about "long cold" and "long flu" in the future.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/long...223032960.html
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...198-X/fulltext

[Granyala]

This is simply not going to happen.

The interesting question will be, how to deal with this in the long term.
So far, looking at Israel, the hoped for "vaccinate everyone and forget about it" doesn't seem to work.

[Rasulis]

What part of:

...is hard to understand?

- - - Updated - - -


With delta, the HIT is likely around 85-88%.

We still don't have a vaccine for the 12 and under, and they represent more than 15% of our population. Another up to 5% of the population are immuno-compromised and either can't take the vaccine or simply won't have it work for them. That's 20% of the population already that isn't able to take the vaccine right now, even if every single other person were to have taken it.

But even when the vaccine is approved for under 12s, you have to remember that the vaccine isn't 100% effective. It never was, and certainly not now that delta is king. At 70% effectiveness against delta, even if 95% of the population had the vaccine, it would still only amount to around 65% coverage, which is not enough to reach HIT.

So in order to get to the HIT, we'd have to have the full 95% population vaccinated as well as a delta booster that brought the vaccine back up to 90% (and probably more like 95%) effectiveness.

This is simply not going to happen.

So the vaccine only 70% effective against Delta. Does it really matter if most of the breakthrough cases are asymptomatic and mild?

Here are the numbers from SF again (74.5% of its population fully vaccinated).

Whereas Covid patients in New Mexico, Arkansas, Florida, Texas and Mississippi are being placed on waiting list for ICU beds, Covid patients occupied less than 15% of SF ICU beds and less than 10% of its acute beds. In SF, hospitals are not turning away cancer patients like in Florida.

Breakthrough cases in SF is 16 per 100,000 of its fully vaccinated population. However, there has only been 45 hospitalized fully vaccinated Covid patients in SF (6.5 per 100,000). In fact there are no fully vaccinated patients in SF hospital right now, and there has not been one the entire month of August.

Here is the Covid-19 dashboard for the SFUSD. Out of 104 cases, 97 were self-reported. Basically they called in sick because of either positive test results or exposure to a person with positive test result.

Still no children of SF residence in any of SF pediatric hospitals.

Two fully vaccinated deaths due to Covid complication. That’s 0.29 per 100,000. Both are over 90.

The vaccines may not provide 100% protection, but they do limit spreads, hospitalizations and deaths. Which allows the disease to be managed and kept under control. It even provides protection for the unvaccinated segment of the population - primarily those under 12.

Some numbers on the average age of breakthrough case deaths.

Median age of Massachusetts breakthrough case deaths is 82.5.

In Oregon it is 82. In fact, 55% of Oregon’s breakthrough case deaths are 80+.

[Logwyn]

I'd also like to point out, that it's not just about being dead or being 100% fine, which is how the comparison is usually presented between Covid and the Flu. You can survive Covid, but be otherwise fucked, potentially for the rest of your life, when your lungs are covered in scar tissue, and/or heart and brain damaged in some ways. Flu doesn't really have that.

If only there was a way to have prevented all of this like staying locked down for two or three more months or something. I have hospitals in my state asking for mobile morges. But Nah we don't need masks or vaccines or to keep the kids at home for two or three weeks.

[Rasulis]

The interesting question will be, how to deal with this in the long term.
So far, looking at Israel, the hoped for "vaccinate everyone and forget about it" doesn't seem to work.

The example on how to manage the virus is right in front of us.

Statistical model of the virus spread from Yale Medical School. For once, light color is bad. The darker the better.

The model for San Francisco shows Rt of 0.72. Rt is the average number of people who will become infected by a person infected at time t. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 cases will increase in the near future. If it’s below 1.0, COVID-19 cases will decrease in the near future.

[PhaelixWW]

So the vaccine only 70% effective against Delta. Does it really matter if most of the breakthrough cases are asymptomatic and mild?

As long as they're communicative? No.

The vaccines may not provide 100% protection, but they do limit spreads, hospitalizations and deaths. Which allows the disease to be managed and kept under control.

Well, duh.

[Zantos]

The USA started vaccinations months ago. Most countries didn't get the vaccine until recently. USA could have hit herd immunity by now if the anti-vaxxers that comprise about 15% of the population just weren't idiots.

Your numbers are obviously made up. The USA can't hit herd immunity. Even if every adult who can take it does so, we can't hit herd immunity because herd immunity counts on nearly every living human being in the area to have the vaccine or some form of immunity. Antivax idiots aside, children can't be vaccinated yet and they push us well below herd immunity capabilities. You need between 70-90% at least with complete immunity. We cannot hit that. With the new strains especially, we can't hit that. We never will hit it. We can only hope to get close enough that it becomes a non issue.

[Omega10]

The interesting question will be, how to deal with this in the long term.
So far, looking at Israel, the hoped for "vaccinate everyone and forget about it" doesn't seem to work.

India seems like it will be trying the don't vaccinate everyone and forget about it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-...064525625.html

Title: Covid-19: Is India entering endemic stage of coronavirus?

A top scientist from the WHO recently said that India may have reached the endemic stage of Covid-19. The BBC's Zoya Mateen explains what this means for the country's fight against the virus.

Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organization's (WHO) chief scientist, on Tuesday said that India seems to be "entering some stage of endemicity".

A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.

Maybe enough people have already gotten the virus and therefore use the virus as their vaccination. But it sure seems like this strategy will have the effect of creating a repeat of their previous wave.

The rest of the article is almost sickening to read. I've heard that song several times already. We defeated the virus. Oh there will be regional outbreaks but nothing like the previous wave.

It's not just the US that is not taking the virus seriously.

[Granyala]

Maybe enough people have already gotten the virus and therefore use the virus as their vaccination. But it sure seems like this strategy will have the effect of creating a repeat of their previous wave.

The question is whether it will stay endemic. If the immunity wanes after 6 months, as apparently Israel is now observing, wouldn't that mean that India gets a huge spike at least once, if not twice per year? Whether it stays manageable or not entirely depends on the %age that end up in hospitals due to waning immunity.

[Rasulis]

As long as they're communicative? No.



Well, duh.

How infectious are fully vaccinated people with asymptomatic and mild breakthrough cases? CDC said the same as not fully vaccinated.

However, at least two studies (one from Netherland and one from Singapore) say otherwise.

I was asymptomatic and I probably ended up giving it to my wife. However, we slept in the same bed and we cuddled to keep warm in the morning. So I was not surprised that she got it. As for my wife, she tested positive on Tuesday and by next Monday she tested negative. No one in my office of 20 was infected. So the window for infecting others is apparently pretty narrow in our case.

[Forogil]

As long as they're communicative? No.

It depends on how communicative and for how long. It would make sense that they are spreading it a smaller amount of time - basically the vaccine would give the immune-system a head-start.

- - - Updated - - -

How infectious are fully vaccinated people with asymptomatic and mild breakthrough cases? CDC said the same as not fully vaccinated.

However, at least two studies (one from Netherland and one from Singapore) say otherwise.

I was asymptomatic and I probably ended up giving it to my wife. However, we slept in the same bed and we cuddled to keep warm in the morning. So I was not surprised that she got it. As for my wife, she tested positive on Tuesday and by next Monday she tested negative. No one in my office of 20 was infected. So the window for infecting others is apparently pretty narrow in our case.

It makes sense that mild and asymptomatic cases spread it less, both because you seem to have it for a shorter time period and making all those viral particles seem to make you ill. How much less is clear - and once more the problem is communicating that uncertainty.

[PhaelixWW]

How infectious are fully vaccinated people with asymptomatic and mild breakthrough cases? CDC said the same as not fully vaccinated.

However, at least two studies (one from Netherland and one from Singapore) say otherwise.

You're entirely missing the point, though. None of this materially changes the original statement.

Let's assume for a second that breakthrough cases of delta are only half as communicative as unvaccinated cases of delta. That would change the "transmissive" effectiveness of the vaccine to 85% instead of 70%. That's still not enough to confer herd immunity, even if every possible person who was capable of taking the vaccine did so (which isn't going to happen).

Let's now say that we gave everyone a booster that raised that back up to 90% normal effectiveness (so 95% transmissive effectiveness). We'd need greater than 95% of the remaining available people (including those under 12) to get the vaccine in order to get close to the HIT. Again, even with a vaccine of 100% effectiveness, you'd need some 90-93% of the available population to be vaccinated to reach the HIT of delta.

The vaccine is quite obviously worthwhile in and of itself, but herd immunity isn't going to happen.

So the window for infecting others is apparently pretty narrow in our case.

Uh, yes, lol, I'm well acquainted with the concept:

Yeah, as long as the host's immune system is fine, the body should quickly be able to pump out new antibodies that will fight off the virus before it has the chance to really take hold. That will almost always result in a much shorter infection without serious symptoms. And while people with a breakout case can still transmit the virus at the same rate, the fact that they're only sick for a shorter amount of time means that they won't infect as many people during the course of that illness. And there are very few breakout cases to begin with.