Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Lenonis]

The CDC reported a while back that 3 out of 4 women who were pregnant weren't vaccinated yet. Perhaps some of that was due to fear of what a vaccine does to the child, when given to the pregnant mother. The answer appears to be "keeps the pregnant mother alive".

Pregnancy and medication is a complicated issue at the best of times. There was quite some time that pregnant mothers were discouraged from getting the vaccine due to the unknown affect on the fetus. It was just last month when the CDC said it was safe for pregnant women to get vaccinated.

Now I'm in no way shape or form excusing nutjob anti-vaxxers, but in the case of pregnant women it was pretty acceptable for them to forgo vaccination, at least earlier this year.

Now there is no excuse unless you are also immunocompromised or have other complicating factors.

[Breccia]

Pregnancy and medication is a complicated issue at the best of times.

Okay, that's fair. The CDC's stance on vaccines in general seems to mostly be
a) you should get live vaccines, like MMR, before you get pregnant.
b) flu shots and other "dead" vaccines are okay during pregnancy.

Obviously, talk to your doctor rather than use broad generalizations.

COVID vaccines don't contain live viruses. And the vaccine's been available for over nine months now, although not necessarily as common and free as it is now. So the science was leaning towards the right answer, but not far enough to have hard proof. Well, we do now.

[Omega10]

Not sure in what world Texas is a swing state and I'm not inclined to count either Florida or Georgia as swing states either, but whatever. It continues:

All three states would be purple/blue if it weren't for voter suppression. This, of course, explains why republicans are putting so much effort into their voting restriction efforts. And it also explains the desperation and suicidal tendencies of republicans pretty much all over the country.

It's also why they are directing so much hatred towards President Biden. This is finally getting them some benefits as President Biden's ratings are falling.

[Lenonis]

COVID vaccines don't contain live viruses. And the vaccine's been available for over nine months now, although not necessarily as common and free as it is now. So the science was leaning towards the right answer, but not far enough to have hard proof. Well, we do now.

This is really the tl;dr of it all. The clinical trial programs didn't test in pregnant women at first so there really wasn't any data to show that the vaccine wouldn't affect fetal development. As you mentioned based on how the vaccines work the risk was likely low but this is pregnancy we are talking about -- people aren't likely to take risks.

But now we have the data and the data says to get the vaccine. There is no reason (other than other medical conditions) why pregnant women should avoid the shot.

Especially given being on a ventilator or dead is going to be far more harmful to the fetus than a vaccine.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...tive-group?amp

Man, I guess Mike Pence's couch surfing days continue. I guess he's struggling to find any actual work so he's starting up his own podcast to target conservative youth. Because you know, a guy that looks exactly like Race Bannon is totally going to appeal to zoomers born after Johnny Quest stopped airing.

Truly, everyone's creating their own podcast to beg for donations. I should look into this.

[Breccia]

Mike Pence...podcast to beg for donations.

I hope the first episode is "five years ago, I signed up for this".

[Gorsameth]

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...tive-group?amp

Man, I guess Mike Pence's couch surfing days continue. I guess he's struggling to find any actual work so he's starting up his own podcast to target conservative youth. Because you know, a guy that looks exactly like Race Bannon is totally going to appeal to zoomers born after Johnny Quest stopped airing.

Truly, everyone's creating their own podcast to beg for donations. I should look into this.

He is trying to target the people who stormed the capitol to lynch him?
Bold move.

[Rasulis]

In COVID pandemic, rate of stillbirths doubles in Mississippi

Keep in mind that Mississippi had the highest infant mortality rate in the US pre-pandemic.

Coronavirus is taking a deadly toll on pregnant people and fetuses in Mississippi. Officials announced on Wednesday that the rate of stillbirths in the state has doubled since the pandemic began last year.

Mississippi State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said at a livestreamed press conference on Wednesday that while "COVID is especially dangerous and problematic for pregnant women," it can also be "deadly for the baby in the womb."

"With COVID, we've seen a doubling of the rate of fetal demise, or the death of the baby in the womb after 20 weeks," Dobbs said. "It's been a real tragedy."

Dobbs said there have been 72 fetal deaths in the state caused by COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, not including miscarriages that may have occurred before the 20-week gestation mark, which is "twice the background rate of what would be expected."

Over the past year, there have also been seven pediatric deaths in the state due to COVID-19, including most recently a baby who was less than a year old.

"That's quite a number of tragedies that sadly would be preventable right now," Dobbs said.

Officials also said there are "increasing deaths among pregnant women." Since March 2020, more than 1,500 pregnant people in the state have been diagnosed with COVID-19, as have more than 76,900 children under the age of 17.

"We're still in the thick of the Delta surge. Sadly we've seen a pretty significant number of pregnant women not survive COVID in recent weeks," Dobbs said. "Currently we are investigating eight reports of pregnant women who have died within the past several weeks, all of whom are unvaccinated."

Some of the women who died were able to deliver their babies via C-section, officials said.

The majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the state, Dobbs said, are among those who are unvaccinated. Just 40% of Mississippi's total population has been fully vaccinated, according to state data — one of the lowest rates in the country.

[DarkTZeratul]

Mississippi's anti-vaxx stance is killing pregnant mothers. And I assume with them their child but I honestly don't even want to look that part up.

Good news, not all of them:

Some of the women who died were able to deliver their babies via C-section, officials said.

Granted, they now still have to grow up without a mother, so people should get the fucking shot.

[Ivanstone]

Well, they do have a lot in common. Anything they make tends to be a failure.

They’re not failures. Both of them helped other people launder a lot of money so they could maintain their lifestyles.

[Breccia]

On July 29, someone with higher hopes for humanity posted

Trends continue until they're stopped. Florida needs to buck the curve they've put themselves on, or in three weeks deaths over 100 will be the norm. Nobody but Florida can change the path Florida has put Florida on.

Now I'll admit all of this is from research of public articles and talking to a Floridian or two. I know some of our posters are Floridians. Perhaps they could fill in the gaps or correct me where I'm wrong?

Then, of course, Florida started changing the rules and shoving corpses into the back via time travel. Also I forgot to come back in 21 days, not that it'd matter what with the time travel.

But August is now over by enough time that most of the deaths that would be shoved into August were. Again, @PhaelixWW has some outstanding graphics of Florida's retroactive murder spree.

So...were deaths over 100 the norm?

The latest COVID-19 data from the CDC on Thursday shows an increase of 1,296 deaths from the total reported a day earlier.

Florida's most recent corpse dump, as per their now dishonest usual, have been thrown into the mass grave that was August. Granted, more might follow, but I think this is a good a time as any to reflect on the month so far. What's the result?

Those deaths did not all happen over the past day and span back weeks.

The backdating of fatalities shows now that more than 7,600 people died in Florida in August, the deadliest month of the pandemic in the state.

That equates to an average of 245 deaths per day in August, and there may still be more deaths connected to the virus to be assigned to those dates.

F*ck.

F*ck f*ck f*ck.

You aren’t. We won’t.

You didn't. Deaths over 100 were not just the norm, right about now, they'd be welcome. We already know COVID is rivaled only by heart disease and cancer in how many Americans it kills, but that's a countrywide statement. In August, enough Floridians celebrated their "personal freedom" to outnumber total HIV deaths in the USA. Or, more Floridians died of COVID in August than total Americans who drowned, died in a boat accident, or literally died in a fire. Combined.

Okay to be fair, the USA is so big 7,600 deaths isn't going to outnumber many year-long total of USA causes of death. So let's try this another way. more people died in Florida of COVID, than all people in New Jersey of all causes of deaths combined in any month of your choice of 2019. Cancer, heart attack, homocide, suicide, accidents...everything.

Incidentally, if you include 2020 and 2021, New Jersey's death count over 7,600 happened three times. One for each peak. That's about it. Florida's COVID-infested August is just that deadly.

One last one for the road: this is the Miami International Airport arrival page. By default it shows a bunch of hours, but if you open it up, the list will be longer than your screen. Depending on your screen size, you'll see a dozen or so arriving airplanes. Now, crash every single plane on your screen, killing every passenger and every member of the crew. Florida's COVID August killed more people than that. Probably a lot more if your screen's as filled with UPS and FedEx as mine was, but the point still stands.

Hospitalizations in Florida are starting to drop, but the ass-end of their blatant lies about COVID deaths means those weekly mass graves they're digging aren't necessarily getting smaller anytime soon. The average of 245/day might creep up yet.

- - - Updated - - -

DeSantis' mask mandate ban is back, reinstated by the court while the appeal continues.

[Fuiking]

Reminds me.. hows Trumps (or his Qanon buddies) doing with becoming a president again? How many dates did already pass?

[Hollycakes]

Because being stronger or a better fighter somehow proves you're a better leader? This isn't the fucking Dark Ages and it's not an RPG.

Also, even if Biden stooped so low as to accept this laughable challenge, it'd be trivial. It's common knowledge that the recipient of a duel challenge gets to pick the location. Biden can simply choose the match at the top of a small hill. Trump would not be able to reach him, and would have to concede.

Sadly, this is how lots of people I know look at the presidency.
My aunt and her crowd all feel our president should be macho and would quite literally judge someone on a fight.
He is absolutely trying to appeal to those people with caveman antics like that.
Not everyone has come to the enlightenment of shedding vestiges of violence for reason and thought, hell or even agrees with that idea.
I hear the same thing when she speaks of China and how weak Biden is on foreign policy etc.

Trump was tough!
He says it like it is!
He's not beholden to DC money!
Other chimp sounds!

Judging him solely on manly characteristics is why she likes him.
To them, being tough and manly is American.
Anything else is weak and socialist.
They see the presidency as the WWF.

[PhaelixWW]

To them, being tough and manly is American.
Anything else is weak and socialist.
They see the presidency as the WWF.

To be honest, I'd vote for Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho over Trump any day of the week and twice on Super Tuesday, so...

[Hollycakes]

To be honest, I'd vote for Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho over Trump any day of the week and twice on Super Tuesday, so...

lol there are parallels and precedence.
Starting with Jesse the Body?

The whole good guys vs. bad guys thing.
Reps think of themselves as the good fighting the bad.
Politicians are fucking caricatures of real people just like wrestlers.
They love to put on a show like wrestlers.
MGT, Trump, Eddie Munster et al.
Now we have The Rock.

It's all cock fights and feather displays and preening.
And like 12 year old boys, maga fans eat that shit up.

[PhaelixWW]

lol there are parallels and precedence.
Starting with Jesse the Body?

The GoP fascination with entertainers is old. Don't forget about Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sonny Bono, Ronald Reagan...

The closest analog that the Democrats have is... Al Franken.

[Kaleredar]

Sadly, this is how lots of people I know look at the presidency.
My aunt and her crowd all feel our president should be macho and would quite literally judge someone on a fight.
He is absolutely trying to appeal to those people with caveman antics like that.
Not everyone has come to the enlightenment of shedding vestiges of violence for reason and thought, hell or even agrees with that idea.
I hear the same thing when she speaks of China and how weak Biden is on foreign policy etc.

Trump was tough!
He says it like it is!
He's not beholden to DC money!
Other chimp sounds!

Judging him solely on manly characteristics is why she likes him.
To them, being tough and manly is American.
Anything else is weak and socialist.
They see the presidency as the WWF.

I've heard this quote tossed around, and I feel it's infinitely applicable:

"Trump is a poor man's idea of a rich man, a weak man's idea of a strong man, and a stupid man's idea of a smart man."

[Breccia]

The QAnon Shaman asked to be let out of prison to see his ailing grandfather.

The judge said "You should have thought of that before the murderous insurrection" and no release was ordered.

I kid, I kid. The judge refused his release on the grounds that he's legally insane.

During an extended pre-trial detention, Chansley, who earlier this month pleaded guilty to a single felony charge in connection with the Jan. 6 riot, was diagnosed with transient schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, depression and anxiety.

However, federal Judge Royce Lamberth in a nine-page order dated Thursday and filed Friday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that the legal standard for releasing a defendant after a guilty plea is higher than release during pre-trial detention.

Lamberth specifically cited Chansley’s argument in his request for pre-sentence release that “it is important for his continued mental competency that he avoids certain psychological ‘triggers.’”

“He mentions his desire to visit his grandfather, whose ill health he considers a triggering event,” the judge added.

Lamberth also noted that Chansley was not able to effectively demonstrate that he would not pose a flight risk if temporarily released.

Man, it's like actions have consequences or some shit.

"Breccia, are you really smugly gloating over someone who lost the last male member of his family and was unable to visit him?"

Maybe a little, but the real issue here is someone who committed a felony wanted to take a vacation from his sentence because he felt like it. Either the QAnon Shaman willingly committed a massive public felony of his own free will, or he did so because he's too crazy to tell truth from fiction. I do care which, but neither is a hall pass to get out of federal prison.

Obviously his lawyer is trying to play this as a sob story. "This gentle, smart, and kind young man" he actually really said about someone who dressed up as a Viking warrior and stormed the nation's legislature during its most important task, an act that involved breaking down barricades and beating multiple police into the hospital.

In an added bit of farce, the Slender Man Stabber was released today.

- - - Updated - - -

Well shit, forgot to hit "refresh" again.

Another murderous insurrectionist is due in court again. He is asking to have his ankle bracelet removed -- this is amazing -- on the grounds that the loud beeping noise it made was scaring off business clients.

Also, the monitor has randomly started beeping loudly around potential clients, immediately followed by an embarrassing phone call from pretrial services asking for his exact location

-- his official court filing

Man, what is with all these Trump supporters and their lack of personal responsibility? "Your Honor, I ask that the sentence against me be lifted on the grounds that I don't want to do it"?

[Kaleredar]

Man, what is with all these Trump supporters and their lack of personal responsibility? "Your Honor, I ask that the sentence against me be lifted on the grounds that I don't want to do it"?

I think you genuinely hit it on the head here.

They don't see what they did as wrong, or if they do, "not that serious." It would seem that these are people who have never had to face real repercussions for their actions before.

Remember, these aren't individuals who were "personally aggrieved" or "protesting against some societal force keeping them down" when they raided the capitol building. These were people with disposable time and income necessary to travel cross country for any number of days and then chose to break into a federal building with the intent to at best vandalize and at worst murder. Their priorities were in exacting their own self-interested delusions of what was right, and facing jail time is a wake-up shock that they can't rectify with their narrative that they're in the right.

It's a good thing that the courts aren't so easily swayed to this fact and instead seem pretty solidly against buying any of their bullshit.

[fwc577]

Hell, no.

First of all, I think you're exaggerating the nature of a swing state. Swing states don't necessarily have to be right on the border. They can be within a few percentage points of flipping, even if they're going to typically go one direction most of the time.

Second, Texas and California are two very different situations. For the last 6 elections:

Year	TX	CA
2020	R+5.5	D+29
2016	R+9	D+30
2012	R+16	D+23
2008	R+12	D+24
2004	R+23	D+10
2000	R+21	D+12

I think we can see a definite bluing trend in both states, but while California is nowhere near flipping, but Texas is getting closer. I guess it all depends on what you consider the "near" future. It's not going to happen in 2022. Were it not for the voter suppression bullshit, I'd say it would have an outside chance in 2024.

So, I was curious to go back and look at results after seeing this data.

Let's start with an absolute baseline, pretty much regardless what happens, I think we start the 2024 race off with:

Democrats - 216

Trump - 148

I think the following states will be up for grabs in 2024:

ME-2, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia

A Texas and Florida win for Democrats in 2024 could end the night early.

When you looked back to 2000 for Texas, I decided to look back at every State to see what's up.

In 2020, Biden only underperformed compared to the average of the last six elections in a single state, Rhode Island, where the average has been 60% for Democrats, Biden only won 59.4.

Meanwhile, Trump underperformed in Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, NE-1, Kansas, South Carolina, Alaska,, Texas, and North Carolina.

Trump actually OVERPERFORMED in Florida.

There are three other states that Biden technically underperformed in, despite winning them. Those were Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Their numbers are heavily boosted because of the popularity of Obama since he broke some pretty hard 50/50 stalemates in those states in his election years.

Trump is going to have a very hard time come 2024, especially with what is happening in Texas and Florida right now. Desantis just dropped 14 points in polls and Abbott dropped 7 points. The far-right people who love these guys are goners. What matters is the people who consider themselves independent that could hand over the state. Right now, they're watching hundreds of people die per day in their state while their Republican governors are more concerned about punishing mask mandates as well as abortions.