I feel optimistic about WoW

[arkanon]

So uh got any links to said data that's the entire argument?

I said their argument was in regards to the data, not mine. The data isnt secret, it isnt the one ring tucked away in a chest - anyone cna look this stuff up, if you have the time / energy. If you dont, multiple youtubers have done videos looking into the numbers and data, and you are welcome to watch any of those if you would like.

[Indigenously Abled]

then why have you been saying this for 10 pages?











You say its not about the data, then you say its less about the data, but your entire argument IS about the data.

--- snip ---

[Lorgar Aurelian]

I said their argument was in regards to the data, not mine.

No but your siting said data in multiple post so you gotta have a link to it right?

[Relapses]

then why have you been saying this for 10 pages?











You say its not about the data, then you say its less about the data, but your entire argument IS about the data.

Finish the fucking quote. Quoting half a sentence then going on some weird ass tangent that proves nothing other the consistency of my argument is pretty disingenuous and you know that. I said it's less important than what's really being discussed in these last few pages. And that isn't the patently incorrect information in Bellular's video and more about people upset with me for not simply accepting that the "game is dying" at face value and agreeing with whatever random ass criticisms they have of the game.

[Nootz]

No but your siting said data in multiple post so you gotta have a link to it right?

Comparing Heroic Denathrius kills at about this time after launch (about 2 months ish) shows about 8700 kills. That's compared to the 5800 Sylvanas kills 2 months ish after Sanctum launched.

It could mean Sylvanas is a harder encounter but with domination shards being easily available now and people getting their set bonuses I don't think that's the case. There's a definite drop off in AOTC kills.

Nathria on February 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210209...wprogress.com/

Wow progress today:
https://www.wowprogress.com/

That's the only "data", if you can call it that, that's easily available right now at least for me to Google on my phone.

[arkanon]

Finish the fucking quote. Quoting half a sentence then going on some weird ass tangent that proves nothing other the consistency of my argument is pretty disingenuous and you know that. I said it's less important than what's really being discussed in these last few pages. And that isn't the patently incorrect information in Bellular's video and more about people upset with me for not simply accepting that the "game is dying" at face value and agreeing with whatever random ass criticisms they have of the game.

Im not saying "the game is dying" and im not agreeing with "whatever random ass criticisms they have of the game", im saying I completely believe and agree with the data being presented by various people reporting on it, and that it lines up with my first hand experiences in game as well. Im saying the data IS factual, just not from an "official source" even though it is taken directly from said source - and im stating, very clearly and without all the childish insults and name calling coming from some others, WHY I think the data shows there is a big problem with the game.

For some reason (I think I know why) instead of trying to come up with an explanation for the dramatic reduction in player participation in those content types, you are just ignoring the data and saying “nope, didn’t come from Blizzard so its not real”.

When I see a HUGE drop off in players completing a certain content type, I might think "hey, maybe Arena sux this season, maybe the balance is bad, or maybe the rewards structure sux" and that would normally correlate with something like increased participation in Rated BGs. When I see substantial drop off in MULTIPLE endgame activities, in fact all group based content, I start to ask what many others are asking: "where exactly did all those people go?".

[munkeyinorbit]

There's very little point in trying to "prove" to somebody that the imaginary numbers they hold onto so dearly were manufactured by a guy who profits directly from negativity against this game. Like I've said, you're free to believe whatever the fuck you want. It is, however, a bit distressing when multiple posters begin chain quoting you, asking you to then provide "alternative data," as if the only possible way to refute bullshit is, apparently, with more bullshit. But I digress. As I said in the rest of the post you didn't quote... this is less about being able to prove anything with data and more about people who dislike their negativity echo chamber being disturbed with inconvenient things like "an actual argument."

But you are not refuting bullshit. You can't just call data bullshit and expect to be taken seriously without providing proof. If you don't have proof or a better source than "trust me, bro" then you have no credibility. It has nothing to do with taking things at face value. Questioning what is presented to us should be encourage. But if you disagree then you should be able to back up your claims. If you can't then you're not refuting any bullshit.

[arkanon]

But you are not refuting bullshit. You can't just call data bullshit and expect to be taken seriously without providing proof. If you don't have proof or a better source than "trust me, bro" then you have no credibility. It has nothing to do with taking things at face value. Questioning what is presented to us should be encourage. But if you disagree then you should be able to back up your claims. If you can't then you're not refuting any bullshit.

I think the most ironic part of this is the people who dismiss that guys youtube video explaining the data because "well, he is obviously bias because drama sells" but then immediately go on to quote Blizzards glorified press release explaining that TBC had more players after launch than before launch as non biased. Because we all know a company would paint a fair and well balanced picture to their investors, and would NEVER do their best to only discuss positive things.

[Relapses]

Im not saying "the game is dying" and im not agreeing with "whatever random ass criticisms they have of the game", im saying I completely believe and agree with the data being presented by various people reporting on it, and that it lines up with my first hand experiences in game as well. Im saying the data IS factual, just not from an "official source" even though it is taken directly from said source - and im stating, very clearly and without all the childish insults and name calling coming from some others, WHY I think the data shows there is a big problem with the game.

For some reason (I think I know why) instead of trying to come up with an explanation for the dramatic reduction in player participation in those content types, you are just ignoring the data and saying “nope, didn’t come from Blizzard so its not real”.

When I see a HUGE drop off in players completing a certain content type, I might think "hey, maybe Arena sux this season, maybe the balance is bad, or maybe the rewards structure sux" and that would normally correlate with something like increased participation in Rated BGs. When I see substantial drop off in MULTIPLE endgame activities, in fact all group based content, I start to ask what many others are asking: "where exactly did all those people go?".

We don't "see" anything. The data proves trends but these trends are nothing more than correlations of unknown information with other unknown pieces of information manipulated to draw a conclusion that is frankly impossible to know. There's too much variance in the data and the methods used to determine the information for me to feel comfortable using it as the basis for any opinion I make about the game. Keep in mind that this isn't me denying criticism or saying that the game hasn't had attrition in SL. It's more that I see very few reasons to believe the data at face value when there are other more reasonable explanations that could be at hand. Most notably, that Blizzard designs this game with the intention of there being a mid-expansion subscriber slump. Or that the slump SL is experiencing has more to do with the extremely long patch cycle than it does the quality of the game itself. Again, not a defense of the game -- just like, a broad question as to why people who dislike this game so fucking much have such a compelling urge to convince everybody that their opinion about the isn't just an opinion... it's a fact. A fact supported by evidence in a YouTube video by a guy who directly profits from stoking negativity.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

Comparing Heroic Denathrius kills at about this time after launch (about 2 months ish) shows about 8700 kills. That's compared to the 5800 Sylvanas kills 2 months ish after Sanctum launched.

It could mean Sylvanas is a harder encounter but with domination shards being easily available now and people getting their set bonuses I don't think that's the case. There's a definite drop off in AOTC kills.

Nathria on February 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210209...wprogress.com/

Wow progress today:
https://www.wowprogress.com/

That's the only "data", if you can call it that, that's easily available right now at least for me to Google on my phone.

Useful for shadowlands but can't be the data in question unless i'm doing something wrong on wayback)(quite possible) there doesn't seem to be data for 2 months after BOD or like any Legion data.

- - - Updated - - -

Im saying the data IS factual, just not from an "official source" even though it is taken directly from said source - and im stating, very clearly and without all the childish insults and name calling coming from some others, WHY I think the data shows there is a big problem with the game.

Again you keep siting data and how factual it is but can you actually link any thing? Nootz had something though it doesn't seem useful to prove the claims you've made so id assume you gotta have something better.

[arkanon]

. It's more that I see very few reasons to believe the data at face value when there are other more reasonable explanations that could be at hand. Most notably, that Blizzard designs this game with the intention of there being a mid-expansion subscriber slump. Or that the slump SL is experiencing has more to do with the extremely long patch cycle than it does the quality of the game itself. .

So just to be clear, you genuinely believe Blizzard design there game in a way that players stop paying them money? Intentionally? THATS what you attribute the drop in player participation to? And just to be clear, an "extremely long patch cycle" is everything to do with the quality of the game itself.

[Relapses]

But you are not refuting bullshit. You can't just call data bullshit and expect to be taken seriously without providing proof. If you don't have proof or a better source than "trust me, bro" then you have no credibility. It has nothing to do with taking things at face value. Questioning what is presented to us should be encourage. But if you disagree then you should be able to back up your claims. If you can't then you're not refuting any bullshit.

Exactly what proof do you want me to provide here? We don't know subscriber numbers and even when we did they didn't matter because Blizzard has never released their attrition/new player generation numbers. My argument isn't that I'm right and he's wrong, it's that his information should not be used as the end-all be-all for argumentation against the current state of the game.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

" but then immediately go on to quote Blizzards glorified press release explaining that TBC had more players after launch than before launch as non biased.

You know the investor report doesn't say that right? all It says that TBC drove the rise in classic/retail subs it has nothing to do with TBC having more players after launch and every thing to do with subs going up as every classic/retail players would be counted as a tbc player even before it was out.

[Relapses]

So just to be clear, you genuinely believe Blizzard design there game in a way that players stop paying them money? Intentionally? THATS what you attribute the drop in player participation to? And just to be clear, an "extremely long patch cycle" is everything to do with the quality of the game itself.

What I mean is that Blizzard understands that an expansion will have far fewer subscribers a year in than it does at the beginning. Like I said in a post a few pages back, the level at which WoW is profitable for subscribers is likely very low. And that pointing out that trend isn't really "proof" of anything new. As for the last tidbit about the patch cycle, I know you'll dismiss this immediately but Blizzard is developing a video game in the middle of a pandemic and that's likely having a huge impact on the TAT for their product.

[arkanon]

What I mean is that Blizzard understands that an expansion will have far fewer subscribers a year in than it does at the beginning. Like I said in a post a few pages back, the level at which WoW is profitable for subscribers is likely very low. And that pointing out that trend isn't really "proof" of anything new. As for the last tidbit about the patch cycle, I know you'll dismiss this immediately but Blizzard is developing a video game in the middle of a pandemic and that's likely having a huge impact on the TAT for their product.

No, you said this:

Most notably, that Blizzard designs this game with the intention of there being a mid-expansion subscriber slump. .

You didnt say they are aware that there might / will be a drop in players during the middle of an expansion, you said it was designed with the intention of having one, totally different things. That also suggests that this level of player dropoff is normal, and i dont believe it is.

[munkeyinorbit]

Exactly what proof do you want me to provide here? We don't know subscriber numbers and even when we did they didn't matter because Blizzard has never released their attrition/new player generation numbers. My argument isn't that I'm right and he's wrong, it's that his information should not be used as the end-all be-all for argumentation against the current state of the game.

Your argument of "trust me, bro" vs a guy who has presented some data. We don't need Blizzards data to find trends. If trends are found then we can make conclusions. Disagreeing with conclusions without proof is not refuting bullshit. It's creating bullshit. You are not credible.

[Nootz]

Useful for shadowlands but can't be the data in question unless i'm doing something wrong on wayback)(quite possible) there doesn't seem to be data for 2 months after BOD or like any Legion data.

- - - Updated - - -



Again you keep siting data and how factual it is but can you actually link any thing? Nootz had something though it doesn't seem useful to prove the claims you've made so id assume you gotta have something better.

The best I can find is this. Wayback Machine isn't always going to return exact dates obviously, but it's close.

Nyalotha 2 months (ish) after launch. March 31st 2020:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200331...wprogress.com/
7580 AOTC Nzoth kills

Eternal Palace 2 months (ish) after launch. September 12th 2019:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190912...wprogress.com/
7300 AOTC Azshara kills

BOD 2 months after (ish) after launch. March 18th 2019:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190318...wprogress.com/
~6000 Jaina AOTC kills

So Nathria staying about the same (actually a bit higher) as BFA AOTC kills then a sudden drop of 2k - 3k players for Sylvanas is pretty substantial. Is it doomsday numbers? Absolutely not. But it's a significant enough margin to warrant a discussion. Also, in case anyone is thinking Sylvanas might be harder, there are more than twice as many mythic Sylvanas kills as Denathrius 2 months after launch. Just some food for thought.


I've felt a lot of guilds disbanding and players just out right quitting. My guild's raid team has lost 4-5 in the past month. Not moving to other guilds just not enjoying the game anymore. I'd bet that is a common trend, too.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

Your argument of "trust me, bro" vs a guy who has presented some data. We don't need Blizzards data to find trends. If trends are found then we can make conclusions. Disagreeing with conclusions without proof is not refuting bullshit. It's creating bullshit. You are not credible.

Yo arkanon doesn't seem to have any thing so any chance you got a link to all this data in question?

[munkeyinorbit]

What I mean is that Blizzard understands that an expansion will have far fewer subscribers a year in than it does at the beginning. Like I said in a post a few pages back, the level at which WoW is profitable for subscribers is likely very low. And that pointing out that trend isn't really "proof" of anything new. As for the last tidbit about the patch cycle, I know you'll dismiss this immediately but Blizzard is developing a video game in the middle of a pandemic and that's likely having a huge impact on the TAT for their product.

What you mean is that you were making things up and within 2 posts you have moved the goal posts.

- - - Updated - - -

Yo arkanon doesn't seem to have any thing so any chance you got a link to all this data in question?

It's already been linked. Read the thread.

[Lorgar Aurelian]

The best I can find is this. Wayback Machine isn't always going to return exact dates obviously, but it's close.

Nyalotha 2 months (ish) after launch. March 31st 2020:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200331...wprogress.com/
7580 AOTC Nzoth kills

Eternal Palace 2 months (ish) after launch. September 12th 2019:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190912...wprogress.com/
7300 AOTC Azshara kills

BOD 2 months after (ish) after launch. March 18th 2019:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190318...wprogress.com/
~6000 Jaina AOTC kills

So Nathria staying about the same (actually a bit higher) as BFA AOTC kills then a sudden drop of 2k - 3k players for Sylvanas is pretty substantial. Is it doomsday numbers? Absolutely not. But it's a significant enough margin to warrant a discussion. Also, in case anyone is thinking Sylvanas might be harder, there are more than twice as many mythic Sylvanas kills as Denathrius 2 months after launch. Just some food for thought.


I've felt a lot of guilds disbanding and players just out right quitting. My guild's raid team has lost 4-5 in the past month. Not moving to other guilds just not enjoying the game anymore. I'd bet that is a common trend, too.

Any chance you could get Uldir some where else? that would be the important raid to see as it would be right after the launch spike that followed Legion/bfa and what would be compared between CN and Sylvanas.