An insight on Bitcoin

[hellhamster]

Wednesday, time to see if the news coming out of the US do anything

News doesn't do much for macro trends, most of them are decided probabilistically in the charts. There is obviously manipulation and coordinated buys/sells going on to hunt liquidations and other selloffs and those are pretty much based on sentiment and the fear and greed index, but that determines only short term movements, not macro.

As long as Bitcoin closes the dailies under 44.5k I remain pretty bearish and a re-test of 40-41k is pretty much guaranteed for now, and if 40k is broken, get ready for a plummet to the 35-38k region. This is not necessarily a bad thing, this indicates stronger future positions and is engineered to make accumulation more viable.

If 44.5k is reached, then we can start talking about very shyly reclaiming higher positions. I favor the bearish scenario for now, which is good both for myself and for 2022 in general as a longer bear trend can move the market higher when that macro trend is reversed. The best trading action is to do nothing for now, wait for either of these extremes to play out, and as always, buy low, sell high. Buying the breakout and selling the breakdown are the next best things, but they are very risky in my opinion for now.

[Belize]

China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal
Well then.

I mean, given China's attitude towards anything they can't directly control, it's not exactly surprising.

[hellhamster]

This is the 5th time this year, is anyone actually counting these?
I believe the Tether FUD is next.

[Ursus]

I mean, given China's attitude towards anything they can't directly control, it's not exactly surprising.

They're doing the right thing for the wrong reasons, but I'll take it. I hope more countries follow suit.

[hellhamster]

Still in a downtrend, the 3 month wyckoff is the highest probability scenario at play right now, the bottom is either 32k or 34.5k for now. This downtrend can break if Bitcoin closes at 46k for the daily, which will happen with a short rally if Sunday closes above 44.5k for the weekly which is a little over 12 hours for now. This is looking impossible for now, but stranger things have happened in the past.

If Bitcoin closes above 46k before October hits for the quarterly, I'll go ultra bull mode, no questions asked. Until that happens, I'm bearish. Worst case scenario is a pump to 45k and then a rejection, which is extremely probable. Then a plummet by next week to the 30ks region is almost guaranteed. There's always a chance this dip will be absorbed at the high 30ks, but the bulls have lain dormant since September 7. We're in bear territory, and the current narrative is working heavily in their favor.

Those are the most probable trades, but unless any of the two plays are confirmed, I'd stay the fuck away from trading for now.

[jonnysensible]

'North American Bitcoin miners see record months as they stockpile 18,000 BTC'

not selling bitcoins as soon as they are mined is unheard of, hasnt happened in 10 years. It looks like the liquidity doesn’t exist to sell the BTC for actual dollars without crashing the price. The suckers have gone home or have the miners suddenly become moon bois?

[hellhamster]

'North American Bitcoin miners see record months as they stockpile 18,000 BTC'

not selling bitcoins as soon as they are mined is unheard of, hasnt happened in 10 years. It looks like the liquidity doesn’t exist to sell the BTC for actual dollars without crashing the price. The suckers have gone home or have the miners suddenly become moon bois?

There is liquidity to cash out, judging from the fact that there were over 123k BTC sold in a few hours during the 20% drop on September 7.

Miner capitulation is a sign of a liquidity squeeze, they are anticipating a major upswing due to supply shortage. 18k BTC is peanuts though.

[hellhamster]

Holy pumpa. Bitcoin unexpectedly and counter to the statistics broke out of the range to the upside, retested it as support, and immediately omega pumped, all within minutes. Because the bearish breakdown to 35-37k had actually like a 70% chance of happening once the pattern became clear, a mega buy luquidated all those shorts that just rode the bearish pattern. I honestly was kinda expecting that, because everyone and their mother saw bitcoin technically having to break down, and the market usually moves against the majority sentiment, so it pumps. I definitely wasn't expecting a 11% pump though.

Bitcoin is absolutely still not out of the danger zone. If it doesn't clear 48.5k sooner than later, which is a huge control zone, expect a drop to 42.5k. I'm expecting a good bounce even before that target is met though, due to the big pump yesterday. A lot of people are still shorting that 48.5k zone, but we all know what happens when a lot of liquidity is gathering at a specific point, which I theorise is around 49-50k.

Resistance targets are the big one at 48.5k, the psychological one at 50k which shouldn't be big at all, and the previous local high at 53k which shouldn't be a big problem either.

If 53k is cleared, I'll be looking at the greed index for now, I'd say 85-90% is a good indicator of a possible sell-off and another local top, following FUD like China banning Bitcoin for the eighth time this year or Tether being investigated by the SEC for the fifteenth time without any charges. If only the SEC could focus on the real bad guys doing inside trading, like the Robinhood CEO making billions... Oh well, these guys don't hurt banks so let's just try to delay crypto adoption once again...

I still believe that it's better to have a bearish 2021 for the long term. If Bitcoin remains bullish, expect the top to arrive within 3 to 6 months. If it is bearish for a few more months, expect a much higher high throughout 2022. I'm believing in the latter personally. My thesis comes from the fact that a lot of institutions and people aren't done accumulating.

People see a pump and become euphoric, but they forget about the macro scale. The stock market and the dollar index are excellent indicators for crypto, it's gonna be an interesting next week to see if there is finally decoupling from the stock market.

The old hag whatsherface Yellen announced more trillions to be printed, which probably caused an additional pump. Printing trillions is a hilarious way to keep this US zombie economy up, with lapdogs EU obviously following suit immediately after. My advice is to ride the wave, but don't expect the party to go on forever. I'm thinking maybe a year or two tops until the fat lady sings. When tapering and a rate hike is announced, be ready for anything.

[ranzino]

49k-ish at the moment. btc heading for fair weather ?

[hellhamster]

Today was a huge day for crypto, it was the first time EVER that the crypto market actually decoupled from the stock market. Let me explain why this is huge: usually when the stock market trades sideways or goes up, crypto does whatever the fuck it wants, but it's absolutely a 100% certainty that whenever the stock market has a pretty big red day with a decent amount of red days before or after, crypto plummets to oblivion.

Today was different, bitcoin should have had like a 10% drop by all accounts judging by the pitiful NASDAQ open of -2.5%, which also had a bearish cross today (TLDR: not good). Bitcoin however not only went up, but blew past the big 48.5k resistance. I'm thinking one scenario is that people were anticipating a leg down due to the stock market also going down most likely, so they shorted, then got fucked by liquidation hunters. Wannabe players that got fucked by the real manipulators. Another scenario is that bitcoin was due for a megapump, but was stopped short, so it pumped less.

Today's close in a few hours will be important. IF bitcoin closes above, and bounces off at 48.5k (or close to it), then the dead cat bounce that many, including myself, are fearing, is one step away from being confirmed gone. If bitcoin clears the final boss of the dead cat bounce, which is 53k, the previous local high, then this will be a clear signal to get the fuck in and buy. A dead cat bounce usually has one last hurrah, a lower high compared to the all time high before buyers show weakness, then immediately crashes HARD. For all intents and purposes, we've had that crash on September 7, but it was pretty mild and we've already bounced, which shows promise.

So far so good, we are at the penultimate step before skyrocketing, but I'd still advise caution. We are not out of the woods yet.

edit: Retesting that 48.5k as we speak, as predicted. If it falls below it, it still has until 2 AM CET for the daily candle close to be above it to show bullishness. If it closes below it, it's not the end of the world, but we will likely have a leg down.

[Edge-]

Today was a huge day for crypto

And here I thought it was due to the hack(s) that emptied out thousands of user accounts on Coinbase - https://www.engadget.com/coinbase-ha...102924471.html

I guess they'll reimburse in fiat currency since they can't conjure up the stolen crypto?

[hellhamster]

And here I thought it was due to the hack(s) that emptied out thousands of user accounts on Coinbase - https://www.engadget.com/coinbase-ha...102924471.html

I guess they'll reimburse in fiat currency since they can't conjure up the stolen crypto?

And they were reimbursed. Your point? Happens with banks all the time, why not post about those hacks?

[Edge-]

And they were reimbursed. Your point? Happens with banks all the time, why not post about those hacks?

Thousands of peoples accounts getting cleaned out? With two-factor authentication (granted it seems like they got around it with SMS authentication)? I...can't remember the last time I saw news like that.

The rub comes in that I don't think Coinbase can actually reimburse them since...well...the whole point of crypto is that there's a set amount (usually) no? So while a bank hack can see your funds returned without any loss, a crypto hack means that you may get the value of your account in fiat currency which...isn't the same at all and essentially short-changes you should the crypto continue to gain value.

[hellhamster]

Thousands of peoples accounts getting cleaned out? With two-factor authentication (granted it seems like they got around it with SMS authentication)? I...can't remember the last time I saw news like that.

The rub comes in that I don't think Coinbase can actually reimburse them since...well...the whole point of crypto is that there's a set amount (usually) no? So while a bank hack can see your funds returned without any loss, a crypto hack means that you may get the value of your account in fiat currency which...isn't the same at all and essentially short-changes you should the crypto continue to gain value.

Are you serious right now? Are you telling me you've never heard of phishing attacks clearing out bank accounts?

They broke SMS 2FA with account recovery apparently, which is a Coinbase fault.

Coinbase has their own crypto funds, aka exchange liquidity. So yes, they can reimburse with crypto. No harm, no foul. Hopefully Coinbase gets better security, which I'm guessing they will.

[Edge-]

Are you serious right now? Are you telling me you've never heard of phishing attacks clearing out bank accounts?

Thousands of them? Nothing springs to mind. Cleaning out a single account breached or a few folks getting their accounts breached in similar timeframes? Yeah, but that's a bit different than thousands of accounts.

[hellhamster]

Thousands of them? Nothing springs to mind. Cleaning out a single account breached or a few folks getting their accounts breached in similar timeframes? Yeah, but that's a bit different than thousands of accounts.

So you're saying the amount of phishing attempts and other bank hacks across the globe is less than thousands? Because it's literally on the news every now and then.

[Themius]

Thousands of peoples accounts getting cleaned out? With two-factor authentication (granted it seems like they got around it with SMS authentication)? I...can't remember the last time I saw news like that.

The rub comes in that I don't think Coinbase can actually reimburse them since...well...the whole point of crypto is that there's a set amount (usually) no? So while a bank hack can see your funds returned without any loss, a crypto hack means that you may get the value of your account in fiat currency which...isn't the same at all and essentially short-changes you should the crypto continue to gain value.

The last time? Probably when the sim scams were going on and people were clearing out bank accounts.

[Edge-]

So you're saying the amount of phishing attempts and other bank hacks across the globe is less than thousands? Because it's literally on the news every now and then.

I imagine if this were remotely common that it'd be fairly easy to grab a link for it happening, no? I can recall accounts getting cleaned out, I can recall banks getting hacked and having personal data stolen in (millions of customers effected), but I can't recall a mass draining of bank accounts like this. And search isn't turning much up, either.

[Jastall]

I imagine if this were remotely common that it'd be fairly easy to grab a link for it happening, no? I can recall accounts getting cleaned out, I can recall banks getting hacked and having personal data stolen in (millions of customers effected), but I can't recall a mass draining of bank accounts like this. And search isn't turning much up, either.

Yeah, I distinctly remember my bank (Desjardins) being the victim of a personal data leak, it made the news for an entire week and we still hear about it from time to time, and it was just a data leak. Had literal thousands of account been cleaned out we'd 100% have heard about it nonstop.

Besides, isn't the main argument that crypto is totes better than fiat? "well the shitty stuff that happens in crypto may also happen in banks" doesn't sound like the most winning of arguments to me.

[Grimbold21]

Here we go, over 50k