Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

**Rasulis** · 2021-10-23, 12:24 AM

Originally Posted by Santti

What... what is that even supposed to mean? I guess it's trying to say that getting the virus is worse, but it could be interpreted the other way as well.

I guess it was trying to say that the side effect of getting the vaccine is like getting scratched by a kitten, and getting Covid is the equivalent of getting attacked by a lion.

**Edge-** · 2021-10-23, 12:25 AM

Originally Posted by Santti

What... what is that even supposed to mean? I guess it's trying to say that getting the virus is worse, but it could be interpreted the other way as well.

Context seems pretty painfully obvious without being explicitly bashed over the head with it...If you're (the royal you) interpreting the lion as "It'll make you an alpha lion!" then you're probably more than a few brain cells short to begin with and no amount of explicit advertising or information is going to help you (the royal you) out.

**Santti** · 2021-10-23, 12:33 AM

Originally Posted by Edge-

Context seems pretty painfully obvious without being explicitly bashed over the head with it...If you're (the royal you) interpreting the lion as "It'll make you an alpha lion!" then you're probably more than a few brain cells short to begin with and no amount of explicit advertising or information is going to help you (the royal you) out.

Oh sure. It's definitely a moron that interprets it in the way that getting the vaccine is for a pussycat, and going without is for the majestic lions, but, well... We are talking about the US, here. I've seen dumber shit than that.

**Ursus** · 2021-10-23, 12:46 AM

Originally Posted by Rasulis

Covid vaccine advertisement in MUNI train.

That's a pretty good ad, but nothing can top this one:

**Masark** · 2021-10-23, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by Rasulis

So how is your region recovering from Covid?

It isn't.

We have 117/136 ICU beds currently occupied (80 of those are COVID, remainder is other causes). That is after expanding the ICUs (normal capacity is 76) by cannibalizing basically every other medical function (e.g. organ transplants are completely shut down right now). That is also after transferring 9 patients to Ontario.

Current projections (see my previous post) say that we will be pushing 240 ICU cases by the end of December unless Moe gets his thumb out of his ass and takes measures to reduce spread.

**Iliena** · 2021-10-23, 01:40 AM

Delta 'Plus' Covid variant may be more transmissible

A new mutated form of coronavirus that some are calling "Delta Plus" may spread more easily than regular Delta, UK experts now say.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has moved it up into the "variant under investigation" category, to reflect this possible risk.

There is no evidence yet that it causes worse illness.

And scientists are confident that existing vaccines should still work well to protect people.

Although regular Delta still accounts for most Covid infections in the UK, cases of "Delta Plus" or AY.4.2 have been increasing.

Latest official data suggests 6% of Covid cases are of this type.

Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way or escape current vaccines. But officials say there is some early evidence that it may have an increased growth rate in the UK compared to Delta.

"This sub-lineage has become increasingly common in the UK in recent months, and there is some early evidence that it may have an increased growth rate in the UK compared to Delta," the UKHSA said.

Unlike Delta, however, it is not yet considered a "variant of concern" - the highest category assigned to variants according to their level of risk.

There are thousands of different types - or variants - of Covid circulating across the world. Viruses mutate all the time, so it is not surprising to see new versions emerge.

AY.4.2 is an offshoot of Delta that includes some new mutations affecting the spike protein, which the virus uses to penetrate our cells.

The mutations - Y145H and A222V - have been found in various other coronavirus lineages since the beginning of the pandemic.

What are the Delta, Gamma, Beta and Alpha Covid variants?
A few cases have also been identified in the US. There had been some in Denmark, but new infections with AY.4.2 have since gone down there.

The UK is already offering booster doses of Covid vaccine to higher risk people ahead of winter, to make sure they have the fullest protection against coronavirus.

There is no suggestion that a new update of the vaccine will be needed to protect against any of the existing variants of the pandemic virus.

Dr Jenny Harries, Chief Executive of the UKHSA, said: "The public health advice is the same for all current variants. Get vaccinated and, for those eligible, come forward for your third or booster dose as appropriate as soon as you are called.

"Continue to exercise caution. Wear a mask in crowded spaces and, when meeting people indoors, open windows and doors to ventilate the room. If you have symptoms take a PCR test and isolate at home until you receive a negative result."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293

**Rasulis** · 2021-10-23, 04:17 AM

Originally Posted by Iliena

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293

I think the US for the most part should be okay. Between those that already had Covid, those fully vaccinated, those who had Covid and were fully vaccinated, those fully vaccinated and had breakthrough cases, booster shots, and 5-11 vaccination starting in November, the majority of US population should have a high degree of immunity. Also, Delta is already highly contagious. So increasing the transmissivity by 10% should have minimal impact.

Not to say that we can't have isolated community outbreaks. The US is a big country. Especially rural areas with low vaccination rate. However, I think the surge in the large population centers will be limited.

**Iliena** · 2021-10-23, 05:25 AM

Originally Posted by Rasulis

I think the US for the most part should be okay. Between those that already had Covid, those fully vaccinated, those who had Covid and were fully vaccinated, those fully vaccinated and had breakthrough cases, booster shots, and 5-11 vaccination starting in November, the majority of US population should have a high degree of immunity. Also, Delta is already highly contagious. So increasing the transmissivity by 10% should have minimal impact.

Not to say that we can't have isolated community outbreaks. The US is a big country. Especially rural areas with low vaccination rate. However, I think the surge in the large population centers will be limited.

UK scientist always tend to be conservative in reporting, they were with Delta at the start.

This was also posted on the BBC website yesterday:

Home working likely to be best way to curb virus - scientists

Advising people to work from home is likely to have the most impact on stopping Covid spreading this winter, scientists advising the government say.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321
I don't think we are out the woods yet, so everybody needs to stay vigilant.

**Cthulhu 2020** · 2021-10-23, 05:54 AM

So since nobody is really checking some massive database as to whether or not someone's vaccine card is real, vaccine card forgeries are a thing. Yep. Dunno if it's been covered in this thread, but shit has gotten to the point where people are forging vaccine cards and selling them to the idiots who are too stubborn to get a free vaccine.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...s-on-instagram

**Twdft** · 2021-10-23, 06:22 AM

Originally Posted by Cthulhu 2020

So since nobody is really checking some massive database as to whether or not someone's vaccine card is real, vaccine card forgeries are a thing. Yep. Dunno if it's been covered in this thread, but shit has gotten to the point where people are forging vaccine cards and selling them to the idiots who are too stubborn to get a free vaccine.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...s-on-instagram

How the EU is handling this: after getting vaccinated I went to my local pharmacy who gave me an encrypted QR-code which contains name, dob and vaccination status. I can load this QR code into an app on my phone or simply carry a paper copy with me. The code can then be checked by another app, even without internet connection (provided you keep it uptodate every once in a while). Compare result with any form of id.

I hope we can get back to normal soon, it sucks having to carry my id and qr code with me if I want to participate in almost everything. Not used to that. Two years ago all I had to carry with me to the football stadium was my season ticket. Now it's season ticket, extra game ticket, id card and qr code which is all checked at the entrance. Get vaccinated folks.

**Yunru** · 2021-10-23, 09:01 AM

Originally Posted by Rasulis

Covid vaccine advertisement in MUNI train. And we both got our booster shots today. The pharmacy texted my wife that the booster shot was available. We walked there. The pharmacist asked me if I want to get the booster shot also. I said "yes", and that was that.

]

If that was in Japan, they would probaly use catgirls

**Granyala** · 2021-10-23, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Ursus

That's a pretty good ad, but nothing can top this one:

Awesome. *cuckles*

**Rasulis** · 2021-10-23, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by Yunru

If that was in Japan, they would probaly use catgirls

Personally I think that's a neat idea. However, it would lead to another controversy here. We have enough controversies as it is.

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by Sugarcube

in sweden we just go to: https://covidbevis.se/vaccinationsbevis-web/

no need to go to a pharmacy here... but i haven't seen anything demand proof of vaccination unless you're travelling...

All indoor activities here require full vaccination. In fact San Francisco temporarily closed In-N-Out burger for failing to enforce the policy for indoor dining. It has reopened, but outdoor dining only. In-N-Out is an anomaly btw. The San Francisco Bar & Restaurant Association was enforcing the rule even before the City.

- - - Updated - - -

Some data from SF Chronicle.

Delta mortality in the Bay Area so far has been similar to a typical flu. Over a winter flu season, influenza leads to on average 10.95 deaths per 100,000 population, or about 860 deaths in the Bay Area. According to the California state COVID database, last winter’s surge accounted for nearly 4½ times that many deaths in spite of extensive control measures, including stay-at-home orders and closures of bars, restaurants, schools and houses of worship.

Thanks to widespread vaccination, however, the delta-driven surge that began in mid-June has resulted in 711 deaths, a much milder result (83% of typical annual flu deaths) despite taking fewer precautions against a more transmissible virus. In San Mateo and Marin counties, where vaccination rates are highest, the delta death toll has been only around one-third of a typical influenza season. If we control for season by comparing the mid-June to mid-Oct time frame in 2020 and 2021, our analysis found that cases were 40% higher this year but deaths were 40% lower.

By Bay Area they are referring to Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma, and San Francisco counties. Rough population count of 7.8 million.

I'll do the booster shot count later. Wife is hungry and want to go to brunch.

**Forogil** · 2021-10-23, 07:53 PM

Originally Posted by Twdft

How the EU is handling this: after getting vaccinated I went to my local pharmacy who gave me an encrypted QR-code which contains name, dob and vaccination status. I can load this QR code into an app on my phone or simply carry a paper copy with me. The code can then be checked by another app, even without internet connection (provided you keep it uptodate every once in a while). Compare result with any form of id.

Yes, and it also has other data: so if you for some odd reason weren't vaccinated, you can either get negative covid-tests and it is handled in the same system - or if the test is positive, you have to wait awhile and hope you survive, but assuming that you can use the same card to say that you recovered!

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by Edge-

Man am I happy to see those numbers going down for CA, especially knowing that many of them are clustered in specific counties while other counties are doing fantastic.

And it's likely that the situation of California vs. uk is even better than that figure showed; as not all cases are actually found.

The positivity rate for the tests is now down to 1.9% in California and has been increasing in the uk to 4.8% (there might be differences in testing explaining part of this - but it paints a consistent picture); and in California even the cases among unvaccinated are declining.

What is worrying in Europe is that cases are also increasing in many other countries, although from lower levels - but some have already taken the lead.

Really bad and increasing (worse than the uk): Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia), Romania, Bulgaria
Increasing last couple of weeks, but not that high yet - but rising fast: Croatia, Poland, Hungary, Belgium
A bit increasing last couple of weeks but still lowish (below the uk): Austria, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands
Steady last couple of weeks (below that): France, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Portugal

Obviously vaccination helps a lot - but there is more going on; and it seems it may get a lot worse soon, possibly with overwhelmed health-care systems - not only in the uk. We will see what the winter brings.

Added:
Just looking at how the cases increased the last month it was clear that high vaccination rates give lower increase in the EU and uk (to have somewhat comparable statistics and vaccines - removing the uk didn't change much). (Which shouldn't be surprising.)

But an r-squared of only 22% mean that there's a lot more going on (yes, using the simplified view that r-squared measures how much the linear effect explains); and intercepting the non-increase at about 92% vaccination - which was surprisingly close to predictions for herd immunity. For mask-use (based on IMHE-data - I'm not sure if it is accurate) the r2 was even lower at 6% and intercepting the non-increase at 103% mask use.

Or to look at specific cases:
Estonia and Lithuania are both going badly at a similar speed; regardless of minor difference in vaccination (59% vs 67%) - and large variation in mask use 67% vs 32%.
Some may be spread between countries, but there's also something else.

And on the other end France, Spain, Sweden, Italy and Portugal all had a decrease in cases the last month (at fairly low levels) with vaccination rates varying between 67% and 87% and mask use between 2 and 68%.

**Rasulis** · 2021-10-23, 10:22 PM

I talked to my sister earlier. She was pretty frustrated. Case and hospitalization in Fresno were going down last week. Then they went crazy again this week. Unless the vaccination rate get a lot better soon, she thinks that Fresno will see a pretty bad winter surge.

**callipygoustp** · 2021-10-23, 10:32 PM

Vaccine shedding? WTF! I'm probably behind the times on this, but this was the first time i happened to hear about it.
Miami private school asks vaccinated students to stay home for 30 days

God dam the anti-vaxxers are some creative mofos.

**Zan15** · 2021-10-23, 10:45 PM