2021-2022 NFL Thread

[draynay]

Fuckin Chargers are Chargering the hell out of this one.

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Incredible comeback followed by incredible collapse.

[Pendulous]

Incredibly stupid decision to go on 4th down at your own 30, late in a tie game. The fact they pulled it out is very anti-Chargers.

So who are the best teams this week? Chiefs made a functional defense out of thin air, now leading the AFC west again. Pats are gonna Pat it up and remind everyone they're still around. Cards are rolling with Colt freaking McCoy. Green Bay is still dangerous.

[Kyanion]

Incredibly stupid decision to go on 4th down at your own 30, late in a tie game. The fact they pulled it out is very anti-Chargers.

You mean the one that then showed the numbers backing it as the correct choice? Punting putting them more likely to lose the game, failing to get the conversion did the same thing, however getting that first down was an increase in chances to win. You're going to see more teams going for it on 4th down as you have already seen this year, many times it is the CORRECT CHOICE. Now this does not factor personnel you have in the game so some teams are less likely to be able to convert, but in a game like that where the Chargers gained 400 yards, I totally think it was the right call.

[Espo]

You mean the one that then showed the numbers backing it as the correct choice? Punting putting them more likely to lose the game, failing to get the conversion did the same thing, however getting that first down was an increase in chances to win. You're going to see more teams going for it on 4th down as you have already seen this year, many times it is the CORRECT CHOICE. Now this does not factor personnel you have in the game so some teams are less likely to be able to convert, but in a game like that where the Chargers gained 400 yards, I totally think it was the right call.

100% agree. This is probably what you're referencing on the percentages: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...39129817190401

Granted--there's probably some arguments to be had on playcalling (on top of other items you mentioned), but it was the right call.

[Grube]

This week might be the last one with a Broncos win until the off season, extended both Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton. Now they just need to find a QB that isn't terrible, any other ST coordinator and an OC that is better than Ask Madden. Oh, and get an owner so Joe Ellis can get shot into the sun along with Pat Shurmur and Tom McMahon.

[ProphetFlume]

You mean the one that then showed the numbers backing it as the correct choice? Punting putting them more likely to lose the game, failing to get the conversion did the same thing, however getting that first down was an increase in chances to win. You're going to see more teams going for it on 4th down as you have already seen this year, many times it is the CORRECT CHOICE. Now this does not factor personnel you have in the game so some teams are less likely to be able to convert, but in a game like that where the Chargers gained 400 yards, I totally think it was the right call.

I agree with the decision, idk about the play call.

[Kyanion]

I agree with the decision, idk about the play call.

Yeah that is a whole other discussion in itself haha

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100% agree. This is probably what you're referencing on the percentages: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...39129817190401

Granted--there's probably some arguments to be had on playcalling (on top of other items you mentioned), but it was the right call.

I’d love to see the numbers on the Saints choice to field goal down by 14 with 7 mins left and 4th and goal

[eschatological]

Taysom Hill signs a base $40m contract for his "current role" which can go up to $95m depending on whether he becomes the starting QB.

I still don't get it. Taysom Hill isn't good. Why would anyone pay him $40m for anything? It's a 4 year extension, is Taysom Hill a $10m a year player? WTF.

[Kyanion]

Taysom Hill signs a base $40m contract for his "current role" which can go up to $95m depending on whether he becomes the starting QB.

I still don't get it. Taysom Hill isn't good. Why would anyone pay him $40m for anything? It's a 4 year extension, is Taysom Hill a $10m a year player? WTF.

I mean I think he is good and love watching him play. Being a Saints fan I’m happy to hear about this deal. I wish he was used more in those roles if he isn’t the QB though.

[Self Inflicted Wounds]

I hate reading these Packers/Vikings after game headlines. Bleh.

[Espo]

Yeah that is a whole other discussion in itself haha

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I’d love to see the numbers on the Saints choice to field goal down by 14 with 7 mins left and 4th and goal

In a vacuum, this one didn't look quite as egregious from a pure numbers perspective; but when you apply a little bit of logic it is such a terrible call.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...25169491185665

Basically...they had a 3% chance to win at the start of that play

A FG had a 97% probability of succeeding and would have increased their win % by....0. Yes, zero.

A conversion had a 31% probability of succeeding and would have increased their win probability by 9%. Edit: the 9% increase is just for converting the 4th down (it was actually 4th and 7--not goal). It doesn't even factor in the increase if they scored a TD afterward (I can't imagine this doesn't swing it by at least 20-30%+)

So Sean Payton chose the option that had a 0% increase to his win probability when he was already at 3%. Brilliant.

[Self Inflicted Wounds]

In a vacuum, this one didn't look quite as egregious from a pure numbers perspective; but when you apply a little bit of logic it is such a terrible call.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...25169491185665

Basically...they had a 3% chance to win at the start of that play

A FG had a 97% probability of succeeding and would have increased their win % by....0. Yes, zero.

A conversion had a 31% probability of succeeding and would have increased their win probability by 9%. Edit: the 9% increase is just for converting the 4th down (it was actually 4th and 7--not goal). It doesn't even factor in the increase if they scored a TD afterward (I can't imagine this doesn't swing it by at least 20-30%+)

So Sean Payton chose the option that had a 0% increase to his win probability when he was already at 3%. Brilliant.

I LOVE statistics like these. Its so fun.

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So Sean Payton chose the option that had a 0% increase to his win probability when he was already at 3%. Brilliant.

We talk about this kind of play a lot on this forum. I feel like coaches only choose that option if they know they are going to lose and just want to minimize the score differential. They are hoping on some kind of freak plays instead of just having faith their team can convert on 4th.

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How does Tom Brady consistently have one of the easier SoS. Just good luck I guess.

[ProphetFlume]

Anyone understand why mnf is free with the mobile nfl app but not with the app using a fire stick?

[draynay]

Taysom Hill signs a base $40m contract for his "current role" which can go up to $95m depending on whether he becomes the starting QB.

I still don't get it. Taysom Hill isn't good. Why would anyone pay him $40m for anything? It's a 4 year extension, is Taysom Hill a $10m a year player? WTF.

Meanwhile Marcus Williams still hasn't been extended.

[Vetali]

I LOVE statistics like these. Its so fun.

Theres some good bots out there that show go for it/kick it as well.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin

https://twitter.com/surrender_index

Anyone understand why mnf is free with the mobile nfl app but not with the app using a fire stick?

If you have verizon it allows you to stream off the NFL app on your phone iirc. Can't cast it though, which sucks.

[Self Inflicted Wounds]

Theres some good bots out there that show go for it/kick it as well.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin

https://twitter.com/surrender_index

If you have verizon it allows you to stream off the NFL app on your phone iirc. Can't cast it though, which sucks.

Surrender index calls them cowardly punts, I am DYING lol

[eschatological]

Meanwhile Marcus Williams still hasn't been extended.

WNY is in a panic that we might lose to an injured Trevor Simien on Thursday. We basically have to win out at this point. Gotta at least split with the Patriots.

[Self Inflicted Wounds]

Matt LaFleur said they will absolutely not replace Mason Crosby. Its heartwarming to see them support him, I hope he fixes some of these issues (I don't blame all the misses on him, some were massive wind issues etc)

[Kyanion]

Anyone understand why mnf is free with the mobile nfl app but not with the app using a fire stick?

Didn’t know about that app though thanks!

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Matt LaFleur said they will absolutely not replace Mason Crosby. Its heartwarming to see them support him, I hope he fixes some of these issues (I don't blame all the misses on him, some were massive wind issues etc)

I mean can you find someone better this deep into the season anyway?

I think he absolutely needs competition for next camp though.