Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[formerShandalay]

Breakthrough case is actually a good way to acquire super immunity.

Here is a study on the immune responses of 35 fully vaccinated people tested positive for Covid in the Provincetown outbreak.

Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS2 CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells

Those who got a breakthrough infection had a dramatic increase in levels of virus-blocking antibodies and virus-killing T cells, including 34-fold higher neutralizing antibody levels against the delta variant, compared with those who weren’t infected.

So the ranking goes fully Vaccinated + breakthrough case > previously infected + fully vaccinated > fully vaccinated > immunity from being infected.

Considering that hospitals in San Francisco have not seen a hospitalized breakthrough patient since September, it appears to be a much safer avenue than getting Covid without vaccination.

As for masks, what masks? Here is a picture from Outside Lands which was held on Halloween weekend. Three hundred thousand attendees at Golden Gate Park over 3 days. All attendees had to be either fully vaccinated or tested negative within 2 days prior. Almost 100% were fully vaccinated.

In case I was not clear. The number of covid hospitalization pre-Halloween in San Francisco was in the mid 40s. As of 11/19, around 2.5 weeks after Halloween weekend, the number is down to 20. Vaccines work.

<snipped the image>

Just because I'm always so happy that you post this stuff: thank you and don't think it goes unnoticed, even if you have to repeat it every 10 posts, because someone didn't bother reading just a few posts back.

You can see vaccines working in every country that lists cases and icu-admissions separately and of course if you compare countries/counties/states (or the equivalent in other countries) by vaccination percentages. I don't get why so many people can't seem to figure this stuff out and just look at the numbers instead of falling for misinformation, but as it seems they can't, I'm really, really glad that you don't get tired of repeating it.

[Forogil]

It's also very important to make the distinction between active antibodies, which have been shown to start waning at about 6 months, and the longer-lasting memory T- and B-cells.

Even if they last longer there are also some indications that they also start decaying after 7 months or so, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...488v1.full.pdf

However, as long as you have some of them that sort of match, your body has a head-start for the next infection.

A major reason many countries give booster doses to the elderly is that this protection isn't enough for them. If the goal was to reduce the spread one would think that boosters to younger active persons would be more active.
(Similarly as some countries vaccinated the 20-30 year olds before the 30-40 year olds; to reduce the spread.)

While keeping levels of active antibodies high with boosters might be more beneficial during a pandemic in which there are still a lot of people who are vulnerable to the virus, it isn't as likely to be a priority once we've moved into the endemic stage.

True, that's the likely result - but we don't know yet.

[dribbles]

Even if they last longer there are also some indications that they also start decaying after 7 months or so, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...488v1.full.pdf

However, as long as you have some of them that sort of match, your body has a head-start for the next infection.

A major reason many countries give booster doses to the elderly is that this protection isn't enough for them. If the goal was to reduce the spread one would think that boosters to younger active persons would be more active.
(Similarly as some countries vaccinated the 20-30 year olds before the 30-40 year olds; to reduce the spread.)


True, that's the likely result - but we don't know yet.

Pascal Soirot, Chief Exec at Astra Zeneca said today regarding T-cells, the AZ vaccine and the elderly:-

"T-cells do matter…it matters to the durability of the response especially in older people, and this vaccine has been shown to stimulate T-cells to a higher degree in older people"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ine-maker.html

Just sayin.

[Forogil]

Pascal Soirot, Chief Exec at Astra Zeneca said today regarding T-cells, the AZ vaccine and the elderly:-

"T-cells do matter…it matters to the durability of the response especially in older people, and this vaccine has been shown to stimulate T-cells to a higher degree in older people"

A company boss saying something vague praising their own product, must be a weekday ending in 'y'.

And when complaining about countries using Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna instead of AstraZeneca vaccine you can start by looking at what booster doses are used by nhs: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...oster-vaccine/

Most people will be offered a booster dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine or Moderna vaccine.

I guess that's based on studies like this one:
https://khub.net/documents/135939561...8-11ba2c6f5801

[Rasulis]

Just because I'm always so happy that you post this stuff: thank you and don't think it goes unnoticed, even if you have to repeat it every 10 posts, because someone didn't bother reading just a few posts back.

You can see vaccines working in every country that lists cases and icu-admissions separately and of course if you compare countries/counties/states (or the equivalent in other countries) by vaccination percentages. I don't get why so many people can't seem to figure this stuff out and just look at the numbers instead of falling for misinformation, but as it seems they can't, I'm really, really glad that you don't get tired of repeating it.

Much appreciated. San Francisco has a lot of issues. However, Covid is not one of them.

As of 11/20, Covid hospitalization in San Francisco is down to 15 (10 in acute and 5 in ICU). Big huge drop from the previous day of 20. We are now back to June pre-Delta numbers as far as Covid hospitalization is concerned.

Whoops reversed the number. 5 in acute and 10 in ICU. Sheesh, more in ICU than acute. That's probably a first.

[Zantos]

Breakthrough case is actually a good way to acquire super immunity.

In case I was not clear. The number of covid hospitalization pre-Halloween in San Francisco was in the mid 40s. As of 11/19, around 2.5 weeks after Halloween weekend, the number is down to 20. Vaccines work.

I never said they don't work, just that the issue is people aren't willingly getting them to some degree, and that's the problem. Break through cases may be good for super immunity, but you don't exactly want covid to not really respond to the vaccine beyond not making them as sick. The more it can spread, the worse things are for that.

As to the event, I think you got some odd numbers. Thats SF posting their own numbers. They actually aren't down to 20 and did appear to have a spike up to the 70s for a few days. We also don't really know for certain how many of those individuals who attended were from the area.

But again, My biggest and main point is that the issue are people not wanting to take the vaccines. We are at the point of getting booster shots while being no where near the numbers for herd immunity from the vaccine. Only about 60% are fully vaccinated. That is low. We need a way to get it higher. Clearly people are ignoring any science as is, thus why we have issues. That is also another key reason why break through cases are bad. Not only is it more chance for it to mutate, its more reasons the idiots use to not get vaccinated.

[Rasulis]

I never said they don't work, just that the issue is people aren't willingly getting them to some degree, and that's the problem. Break through cases may be good for super immunity, but you don't exactly want covid to not really respond to the vaccine beyond not making them as sick. The more it can spread, the worse things are for that.

As to the event, I think you got some odd numbers. Thats SF posting their own numbers. They actually aren't down to 20 and did appear to have a spike up to the 70s for a few days. We also don't really know for certain how many of those individuals who attended were from the area and would have remains there.

But again, My biggest and main point is that the issue are people not wanting to take the vaccines. We are at the point of getting booster shots while being no where near the numbers for herd immunity from the vaccine. Only about 60% are fully vaccinated. That is low. We need a way to get it higher. Clearly people are ignoring any science as is, thus why we have issues. That is also another key reason why break through cases are bad. Not only is it more chance for it to mutate, its more reasons the idiots use to not get vaccinated.

Hospitalization. Not case. I am trying to point out that as case number increased or stayed flat in San Francisco, hospitalization kept going down.

San Francisco Total hospitalized COVID-19 cases

- - - Updated - - -

Unfortunately, the Bay Area is not typical of all California.

COVID-19 misinformation dominates Sacramento-area supervisors meeting, alarming experts

In the latest symbolic rebuke against public health precautions, elected officials in El Dorado County last week took turns sharing debunked concerns and misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines before ultimately passing a resolution decrying school vaccine mandates.

Without citing evidence, the chair of the El Dorado County Board of Supervisors said he didn't "believe" vaccines were effective. The official who introduced the resolution falsely claimed that "we don't know" what is in the vaccines.

Public health officials were concerned about the comments, which harken back to conspiracy theories throughout the pandemic and sowed doubts about well-established COVID-19 vaccines. The comments, experts said, stand to put the community at greater risk of a winter surge in coronavirus cases among unvaccinated residents.

"I don't believe the vaccine is effective, personally," said John Hidahl, chair of the Board of Supervisors. "But that's a personal choice and decision for what you want to do. I've chosen not to get vaccinated." He did not return a request seeking comment for this story.

The resolution, passed Nov. 16, was intended as a show of solidarity against Gov. Gavin Newsom's plans to require children be vaccinated against the coronavirus in order to attend school. That plan takes effect after the vaccines receive full approval from the FDA, likely next summer at the earliest.

Residents, not "the government," should decide what measures to take against COVID-19, the board's resolution said. In a 4-1 vote, members supported the resolution and agreed to send a letter to Newsom.

Board members acknowledged the resolution was toothless because they have no power to alter state policy. They cautioned residents who jammed in meeting chambers for the nearly three-hour hearing that nothing would actually change as a result of their vote.

The meeting came two days after The Sacramento Bee reported about how conspiracy-driven anti-government groups have derailed local government meetings across the state. It was the latest in a series of actions aimed at rebuffing the state when it comes to pandemic precautions.

The Oroville City Council on Nov. 2 voted to call itself a "constitutional republic" not subject to state laws, echoing right-wing anti-government outrage from the past year. Other locations, primarily in rural North State counties, have followed suit throughout the pandemic.

"These local officials are playing to their constituents," said Lisa Pruitt, a law professor at the University of California, Davis, who studies rural issues. "They are, I think, often in agreement with their constituents, but also understanding they don't have any power as a local government entity to really resist the state in any meaningful way. So they make these statements."

Those statements, and the misinformation surrounding them, fed a nearly three-hour meeting in which commenters repeated many of the same conspiracy theories that have come to dominate public meetings across California in recent months.

They called the COVID-19 vaccine a "mystery drug" and said it was "killing people." Some brought their young children, who spoke into the microphone about their concerns about the public health precautions. One woman held up a pocket copy of the Constitution and called it her vaccine passport.

"This is a circus," said Sue Novasel, the lone "no" vote, as people shouted over her.

In an interview, Novasel said the disruptions have escalated in recent months, fueled largely by online misinformation. She said she has felt threatened and that the lack of civility and decorum at the meetings has made it difficult to run a complex government bureaucracy.

"We can't do so when we've got a disruptive group that is determined to stop a procedure and a process that for over 200 years has worked," Novasel said. "That's frustrating. Because it just doesn't get the government working in the right direction."

'Vaccines work incredibly well'

A packed room at a board meeting repeating debunked claims about COVID-19 is not representative of the vast majority of residents in a city or county, said Richard Carpiano, a sociology and public health professor at the University of California, Riverside.

But when those fringe beliefs become legitimized, Carpiano said, "you get these people that get into these positions of responsibility that have some very questionable sorts of views."

They also then dominate how local board meetings operate and provide a platform for elected officials to offer dangerous takes on public health, he said.

"It is very concerning going into the winter months that some people have not yet chosen to be vaccinated," said Dr. Timothy Brewer, professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA. "And hopefully they will get vaccinated because these vaccines work incredibly well. They're very good at preventing serious disease, hospitalization and death."

Data the CDC updated this week on the effectiveness of vaccines shows that unvaccinated people were nearly six times as likely to test positive for COVID-19 than were those who'd gotten the vaccine. Unvaccinated people were 14 times more likely to die from COVID-19, according to the CDC data.

Despite evidence from around the world that the vaccines are remarkably effective and safe, four-in-10 El Dorado County residents have not been fully vaccinated. That plateaued vaccination rate has public health experts worried going into the winter months. Last month, National Guard medics were dispatched to help hospitals in both Northern and Southern California, where unvaccinated COVID-19 patients inundated local hospitals.

The laissez faire approach to the pandemic that county officials propose runs against the core tenets of public health, said Dr. Arthur Reingold, professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health at UC Berkeley and chair of California's COVID-19 vaccine workgroup. It's also a "disservice to their constituents."

"Saying, 'Well, I'll take my chances,' or 'it doesn't seem so bad to get the virus' or 'it's a benign infection that I'll recover from and get better immunity,' frankly, to me it just goes against what we want to achieve in public health, which is to prevent people from getting sick in the first place."

Correlation does not mean causation

Supervisor George Turnboo introduced the resolution with a personal story about a friend who he said received a COVID-19 booster shot, traveled to Idaho and became "very sick." As she arrived, she was talking to her family when the woman "coded," he said. Her husband performed CPR, and she ultimately survived, Turnboo said.

"This is the kind of stuff that has to stop. We do not know what's in these vaccinations," Turnboo said. His comments were met with a booming 10-second applause. He repeated the claim later when describing the vaccine's effects on young people. "We have no idea what's going on."

But we do, experts say. Suggesting otherwise is disingenuous and downright dangerous, especially in areas with a significant population that has so far decided against being vaccinated, Brewer said.

"If they don't know what's in it, it means they haven't bothered to look," Brewer said, adding that the FDA and CDC have the information publicly posted and have for a year.

"It's really not a credible argument to say we just don't know," he said.

Turnboo did not return a request seeking comment for this story. While side effects from the vaccine are possible, they are almost always mild.

Just because someone suffers a medical emergency after getting a dose doesn't mean the vaccine caused the emergency, Brewer and Reingold said. In a large population, they noted, a certain number of people will suffer an emergency on any given day regardless of whether they received a vaccine.

"Just because a rooster crows in the morning and the sun comes up doesn't mean that the rooster crowing causes the sun to come up," Brewer said. "People tend to link things that occur temporally in time together as being related to each other. That's not always true."

This is why their hospitals have been constantly operating at over 100% capacity since August. This is why the Valley hospitals are begging the State to make it easier to transfer patients to LA hospitals. This is why in October the State had to send doctors and nurses from the National Guard and Bay Area hospitals to Northern and Central California.

[Corvus]

Just because nice things aren't allowed to happen - scientists have spotted a new strain (B 1.1.529) with 32 mutations in the spike protein (a horrific spike profile according to virologist at the Imperial College London). So far there have only been 10 confirmed cases of it, in Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong. The hope is that it is just an odd cluster, but there is concern that that many mutations could may help it evade immunity.

Hopefully the former.

[Edge-]

Just because nice things aren't allowed to happen - scientists have spotted a new strain (B 1.1.529) with 32 mutations in the spike protein (a horrific spike profile according to virologist at the Imperial College London). So far there have only been 10 confirmed cases of it, in Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong. The hope is that it is just an odd cluster, but there is concern that that many mutations could may help it evade immunity.

Hopefully the former.

At the very least it's hopefully less easy to transmit than delta has been. I'm ready for another round of vaccines if we need them though, but I'm not looking forward to the anti-vax/covid-denying idiots claiming this as some kind of proof that vaccines don't work and this is all some kind of grand conspiracy involving JFK Jr., Michael Jackson, and Robin Williams.

[Rasulis]

I am so happy to see that Canada has its share of loonies also.

Large Ice Cream Manufacturer Faces Boycotts for Raising Wage of Vaccinated Workers

Chapman's Ice Cream, Canada's largest ice cream manufacturer, is facing boycotts after the company announced it would raise wages for its vaccinated workers and begin mandatory testing protocols.

The company has become the latest target of several anti-vaccine organizations and activists, who are allegedly threatening members of the family-owned business and calling on the public to boycott its ice cream products.

"The reaction was pretty brutal, actually very, very aggressive. People were calling us, leaving messages after hours. I've been sent—the only thing I can say—is hate packages in the mail," Chapman's Vice President Ashley Chapman told CBC Radio's As It Happens.

"Even my father, my 78-year-old father, got a voicemail on his phone, telling him he was like Hitler, and obviously a Nazi, and we should be convicted of war crimes, essentially," he added.

[Forogil]

Just because nice things aren't allowed to happen - scientists have spotted a new strain (B 1.1.529) with 32 mutations in the spike protein (a horrific spike profile according to virologist at the Imperial College London). So far there have only been 10 confirmed cases of it, in Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong. The hope is that it is just an odd cluster, but there is concern that that many mutations could may help it evade immunity.

Hopefully the former.

Hopefully yes. But it also points to the severity in Africa.

If you just look at official numbers S. Africa and Botswana seem to be doing ok, but the reality seems to be that death-counts are 2-3 times higher, so worse than western Europe - with a younger population, and obviously more cases increase the risk of mutations, and as the article notes a special concern are the high number of immuno-compromised HIV-infected persons.

[Zantos]

Hospitalization. Not case. I am trying to point out that as case number increased or stayed flat in San Francisco, hospitalization kept going down.

Honestly? I personally don't really care about hospitalizations. My bigger concern is the virus itself being able to spread. If people aren't getting hospitalized, great. Will it last? Maybe. As long as the virus can spread, it can mutate and become worse. Worse in what way? Well, that's the question. It could mutate and suddenly the vaccines don't work to mitigate even how harmful it is. That is why we need to focus on cases more imo.

Hospitals getting patients is the effect with covid being the cause. Stop the cause, you end the effect. Let the cause get worse, the effect will get worse.

- - - Updated - - -

At the very least it's hopefully less easy to transmit than delta has been. I'm ready for another round of vaccines if we need them though, but I'm not looking forward to the anti-vax/covid-denying idiots claiming this as some kind of proof that vaccines don't work and this is all some kind of grand conspiracy involving JFK Jr., Michael Jackson, and Robin Williams.

Of course we will need them. We don't even have enough of them out right now to stop the current pandemic. Heck, they are already trying to do booster shots and are seeing more break through cases, with that expected to rise.

The real question will be though, can they realistically make another vaccine that is effective on a new strain that the old one isn't effective on? I would try to be hopeful, but considering that 2/3 of the current vaccines need 2 shots to hit that 95% effective rate with the 3rd not quite getting near that rate, I'm not too hopeful. Especially with more strains around now then back when these first came out.

[Forogil]

Honestly? I personally don't really care about hospitalizations.

You should for at least two reasons:

Hospitalization is an indicator for how many will die (even though the vaccines and new drugs are reducing that connection), and if it was yet another corona-viruses that practically no-one died from it wouldn't be such a big deal. It's just that there are more hospitalizations than deaths and they happen a few days earlier, so it is a good warning signal.

When hospitals are full, as seem to be the case in some countries like Germany, even more people will die - also for completely different diseases as there's no-one to treat them.

My bigger concern is the virus itself being able to spread. If people aren't getting hospitalized, great. Will it last? Maybe. As long as the virus can spread, it can mutate and become worse. Worse in what way? Well, that's the question. It could mutate and suddenly the vaccines don't work to mitigate even how harmful it is. That is why we need to focus on cases more imo.

Focusing on case-numbers will miss most of the problematic spots.

Case-numbers are very unreliable, as people can have the disease without being tested. Deaths (and hospitalizations) are more reliable, but not fully reliable either.


As for mutations - I don't see San Francisco as being the main problem, when we have variants from India, Peru, Brazil and now Botswana; that all have undercounted cases a lot. Eradicating the disease is currently not very realistic, making it a not very fatal endemic disease is more realistic.

Of course we will need them. We don't even have enough of them out right now to stop the current pandemic. Heck, they are already trying to do booster shots and are seeing more break through cases, with that expected to rise.

The booster shots are needed, since the protection doesn't last long enough. As long as the breakthrough infections are mild enough they are not such a big deal.

The real question will be though, can they realistically make another vaccine that is effective on a new strain that the old one isn't effective on?

Yes, they can easily do that with the mRNA vaccines - they reported it would take about 6 weeks from start to delivery.

The more interesting question is why haven't they?
As far as I understand the problem with breakthrough infections isn't so much that the virus has changed in that way, but that immunity wanes over time and that the new strains are more contagious. The 95% effective doesn't mean that you roll a D20 and get infected when you roll 1, but that based on normal behavior the cases were reduced by 95%, but e.g., if you were living in the same apartment as the infected you got exposed more to the virus the protection dropped to about 50%. Similarly the more contagious strains moved those numbers even if the vaccine still matched the spike-variant about as well as before.
I also assume a major factor is also government approvals of the new vaccine-variants.

But the manufacturers are already testing such updates, just in case, https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...iants-80643395

[PACOX]

The real question will be though, can they realistically make another vaccine that is effective on a new strain that the old one isn't effective on? I would try to be hopeful, but considering that 2/3 of the current vaccines need 2 shots to hit that 95% effective rate with the 3rd not quite getting near that rate, I'm not too hopeful. Especially with more strains around now then back when these first came out.

Tgey can because targeting the virus is rather easy. Deal with mutationd is what makes it a logistical pain in the butt. Also humans make it a pain in the butt. Because even if we have to deal with new flu variabts each year, the flu predominately spreads onlt part of the year so its easy to vaccinate people any wait for it to run its course through the unvaccinated. Then you usecthe 'off season' to come uo with a neq shot. There hasn't been an off season with COVID19 because as soon as people think its flat lining, theres a new massive spike and/or variant. Why? Welk partly because enough people arent getting vaccinated so thr virus can maintain pace with efforts to stall it. And then vaccines become ineffective (well less effective, thankfully nothing significant yet but also it hasn't even been a year before the virus is already challenging it).

Its easy to target the new spike protein, its harder to deall with the logistics. We have people we're still trying to shoot up the vaccine taegeted at pre-Delta COVID, be it the furst shot or the third. We still don't really know who long any stage of vaccination works (2 doses seem to at least hold up well for 6 months, biisters will put you back to 'full strength' if you want to call it that but we don't know if thats necessary or for how long that level holds). Niw we might beed to produce a new 'flavor' of vaccine for a new spike protein. Not hard to do but hard to distribute and get people to take before they become confused/fatigued.


Soery for the typis. Typeec from a mobile keyboard that hates me.

[Masark]

At the very least it's hopefully less easy to transmit than delta has been.

Available data is suggesting that this new variant is even more transmissible than delta.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...25612402429952

[Mayhem]

Available data is suggesting that this new variant is even more transmissible than delta.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...25612402429952

First case in Israel confirmed.

[Mhyroth]

Belgium might go back into a lockdown light today. 25k cases (most new cases ever since Covid ever)

People are sick and tired it seems and blame the government for everything.

[Draco-Onis]

Available data is suggesting that this new variant is even more transmissible than delta.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...25612402429952

Who could have guessed that prioritizing corporate profit over human lives would result in ever worse mutations. I am sure somewhere several executives got giant profit boners over this news.

[Lenonis]

Who could have guessed that prioritizing corporate profit over human lives would result in ever worse mutations. I am sure somewhere several executives got giant profit boners over this news.

Are you implying that people are causing these mutations for profit? Or....? Cause I can't follow how a profit motive would cause mutations.

[Draco-Onis]

Are you implying that people are causing these mutations for profit? Or....? Cause I can't follow how a profit motive would cause mutations.

We could have lessen the chance of mutations if we focused on equitable vaccine distribution but we chose profit. As a result the vast majority of the world does not have access to vaccines leaving countless opportunities for mutations. If you look at how humanity has destroyed diseases using vaccines it wasn't using a profit driven model.