2023-2024 NBA Thread

[PhaelixWW]

Anyone feel like hazarding a guess/opinion about a possible suspension for LeBron and Isaiah Stewart?

[Pendulous]

Props to the rookie who kept trying to hold Stewart back.

[PhaelixWW]

So a one-game suspension for LBJ and two for Stewart. Seems about right. Stewart looked unhinged.

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What a cluuuuuuutch finish by the Grizzlies over the Jazz tonight. It was a tie game with just over two minutes left and Bogey hit two back-to-back threes to put the Jazz up 6 with 90 seconds left, but the Grizzlies fought back. They were still down three with 15 seconds left when Ja Morant was fouled and went to the line.

He hit the first, but missed the second and a goaltend was initially called on the rebound. After review, they said there was no foul, so they had a jump ball, which the Grizzlies won. Then Ja drove to the paint, crashing the defenders, then kicked it out to Jaren Jackson Jr. to put up a three and give the Grizzlies a one point lead with 5 seconds left.

Some good defense, a missed shot by Donovan Mitchell, and the Grizzles pulled off the improbable last minute comeback. When Bogdanovic's second three hit, I thought for sure it was a dagger, but nope.

[StillMcfuu]

This is beautiful.

[PhaelixWW]

Dubs doin' Dub things. Went from down 19 in the 2nd to up 20 in the 4th.

[StillMcfuu]

Dubs doin' Dub things. Went from down 19 in the 2nd to up 20 in the 4th.

Duba are definitely past the point of this being just a "hot start". More than their offense, its their defense that is really killing it. But I also feel their offense is feast or famine. Thats why you constantly see these down by 20, win by 20 games they keep having. When they aren't scoring, they literally score nothing. They have no "go get a basket" player like KD was for them. And Klay won't be the answer to that.

[ProphetFlume]

Duba are definitely past the point of this being just a "hot start". More than their offense, its their defense that is really killing it. But I also feel their offense is feast or famine. Thats why you constantly see these down by 20, win by 20 games they keep having. When they aren't scoring, they literally score nothing. They have no "go get a basket" player like KD was for them. And Klay won't be the answer to that.

Sounds a lot like pre-Kerr warriors when they were just the team that hit a ton of 3s

[PhaelixWW]

Sounds a lot like pre-Kerr warriors when they were just the team that hit a ton of 3s

Not at all. This is the pure Kerr Warriors of 2014-2016. Warriors are the #1 defensive team with a defensive rating of 99.9, which belies the "just hit a ton of 3s" idea. They're also #1 in assist% at 70.8%. The next place team is the Spurs at 64.0%. To give an impression of just how far ahead of the pack that really is, that massive 6.8% difference is enough to cover the distance from the #2 team all the way down to the #22 team. They move the ball very well and their off-ball movement is superb, too, which does result in a lot of open-look 3s, sure. But they're also scoring more points in the paint than any Warriors team since Baron Davis' We Believe Warriors of 2006-2008. The bench, if anything, is even deeper than the original Strength in Numbers team, and Klay and Wiseman aren't even back, yet.

[StillMcfuu]

Sounds a lot like pre-Kerr warriors when they were just the team that hit a ton of 3s

I think it's just young players who are prone to streaking. As Phaelix pointed out, their offense is amazing, it generates a lot of open looks. I'm assuming the lows are going to be streak shooting combined with young players passing instead of shooting, and Kerr possibly getting stumped by a defense until he makes adjustments.

[PhaelixWW]

I think it's just young players who are prone to streaking. As Phaelix pointed out, their offense is amazing, it generates a lot of open looks. I'm assuming the lows are going to be streak shooting combined with young players passing instead of shooting, and Kerr possibly getting stumped by a defense until he makes adjustments.

Yeah, this team just doesn't worry about being down. Kerr is very good at making adjustments, which is part of the reason why the Warriors are averaging +7.6 per game in the third quarter (second place Boston at +3.5 per game) and +10.8 in the second half (second place Utah at +5.2 per game) after making halftime adjustments.

Another interesting stat: in games in which the Warriors have at some point trailed by 10+ points, their record is 6-0.

[Coniferous]

Yeah, this team just doesn't worry about being down. Kerr is very good at making adjustments, which is part of the reason why the Warriors are averaging +7.6 per game in the third quarter (second place Boston at +3.5 per game) and +10.8 in the second half (second place Utah at +5.2 per game) after making halftime adjustments.

Another interesting stat: in games in which the Warriors have at some point trailed by 10+ points, their record is 6-0.

The question with the Warriors is always whether their style is as effective in the late rounds when the other team is likely to have a world destroying freak like Durant, Giannis, or Lebron. Curry is a great, great player but he has never shown that he can keep up with one of those guys in a finals. He's never been the best player in a finals series, and often isn't the best player in the conference finals. To look at their first team from 2015, the Cavs took them to 6 games without either Love or Irving because Lebron went nuclear while Curry was... fine (26/5/6 on .585 TS%). This is pretty typical. In 2016 (the 73 win team) he was outplayed by Kyrie AND significantly outplayed by Lebron. They were also outscored and outplayed in the conference finals against the Thunder, and should have lost that series except Westbrook swallowed the ball for the last three games (in retrospect, Westbrook is the only guy who's been able to contain Durant in the playoffs over the past few years - because he never let him have the ball).

Curry's style is great for winning mvps in the regular season, racking up 35 points a game... but the playoffs are different.

What separates the very best players from the guys a tier below them is that their production in the late rounds doesn't drop off. Curry's usually does. Lebron's never has, Durant's hasn't, and it seems like Giannis is getting to that level too.

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By the way, when I'm looking at stats this year, yes there's a lot more points scored because teams shoot a lot of threes, but I'm also seeing some incredible numbers from 2. Jokic is shooting 65% on 2s, Durant and Giannis are at 59%, Lebron is at 57%. To put these numbers in perspective, Shaq shot 57% from 2 during the Lakers' 3 peat, and he did that while shooting horribly from the free throw line. As recently as 2010, Kobe was winning championships shooting 48% from 2. The game has changed dramatically over the past 10 years.

[PhaelixWW]

The question with the Warriors is always whether their style is as effective in the late rounds when the other team is likely to have a world destroying freak like Durant, Giannis, or Lebron. Curry is a great, great player but he has never shown that he can keep up with one of those guys in a finals. He's never been the best player in a finals series, and often isn't the best player in the conference finals. To look at their first team from 2015, the Cavs took them to 6 games without either Love or Irving because Lebron went nuclear while Curry was... fine (26/5/6 on .585 TS%). This is pretty typical. In 2016 (the 73 win team) he was outplayed by Kyrie AND significantly outplayed by Lebron. They were also outscored and outplayed in the conference finals against the Thunder, and should have lost that series except Westbrook swallowed the ball for the last three games.

Curry's style is great for winning mvps in the regular season, racking up 35 points a game... but the playoffs are different.

What separates the very best players from the guys a tier below them is that their production in the late rounds doesn't drop off. Curry's usually does. Lebron's never has, Durant's hasn't, and it seems like Giannis is getting to that level too.

Well. That was an awful lot of BS.

Curry was playing injured in the 2016 WCF and Finals, as well as just being fatigued by the 73-9 run. And Kyrie didn't really significantly outplay Curry; he was only at 4.5 points per game higher, but on 4 extra minutes of play per game. LeBron was 7.1 points per game higher, but on 6.6 extra minutes of play per game. Those are better, but not terribly significantly.

And overall Finals production, lulz. Steph has outscored LeBron in PP48 with 32.3 to 32.1 in Finals games. Steph also has a higher EFG% in Finals games at 52.9%, compared to LeBron's 52.5% and Kyrie's 51.8%. The difference is even bigger for TS%, with Steph at 58.9%, LeBron at 56.3%, and Kyrie at 55.8%.

More importantly is Finals plus/minus where Steph is +103, while Kyrie is +6 and LeBron is... -86, oof.

[Coniferous]

Well. That was an awful lot of BS.

Curry was playing injured in the 2016 WCF and Finals, as well as just being fatigued by the 73-9 run. And Kyrie didn't really significantly outplay Curry; he was only at 4.5 points per game higher, but on 4 extra minutes of play per game. LeBron was 7.1 points per game higher, but on 6.6 extra minutes of play per game. Those are better, but not terribly significantly.

And overall Finals production, lulz. Steph has outscored LeBron in PP48 with 32.3 to 32.1 in Finals games. Steph also has a higher EFG% in Finals games at 52.9%, compared to LeBron's 52.5% and Kyrie's 51.8%. The difference is even bigger for TS%, with Steph at 58.9%, LeBron at 56.3%, and Kyrie at 55.8%.

More importantly is Finals plus/minus where Steph is +103, while Kyrie is +6 and LeBron is... -86, oof.

I’ll respond more to this later, but there are a few factors that make this analysis flawed. First, Lebron provides a lot of value besides shooting and scoring - he has about 10 rpg in the finals, he’s a great defender, and he’s possibly the best passer in the league.

Second, 4 of Lebron’s finals appearances came in the prehistoric era - going back to 2007 where the teams only had 82 possessions a game and both teams under .500 efg%. So his stats from that era have to be graded on a curve. Lebron since he returned to Cleveland has been a different beast.

Steph’s best finals statistically might be against the Raptors when he averaged 30 with a .598 TS% - in the regular season he’s typically around .640, but he’s always lower in the finals (except when playing second fiddle to Durant).

Meanwhile Lebron has had some truly ridiculous finals performances - in 2017 he averaged 33/12/10 with a .630 ts%, along with his usual block and 1.5 steals. It’s really not very close between them.

And sure,+/-: Lebron’s teams have been the underdog in 6 of 9 finals, and he is 4-5. That’s largely a result of playing in the eastern conference.

The minutes thing matters too - Lebron in his prime was almost always able to play ridiculous minutes, in some of those series he played basically the whole time except when games weren’t close. This is a big part of why the Cavs were always a better playoff team than regular season, because they were hopeless when he was off the floor, but in the playoffs Lebron usually cut his rest in half.

This year may be different though - Lebron is clearly past his peak, who knows what happens with the Nets, and Giannis isn’t obviously at Durant or Lebron’s level yet as a playoff performer. I still think it’s likely that in a potential wcf or finals series, Curry is outperformed by the best player on the other team because that guys likely to be a freak. In a seven game series, you want someone who is just physically dominant and you can’t stop them even if you know what’s coming. Curry’s shooting is so ridiculous that he’s close to that level without physical dominance, but he’s not there.

[StillMcfuu]

Well. That was an awful lot of BS.

Curry was playing injured in the 2016 WCF and Finals, as well as just being fatigued by the 73-9 run. And Kyrie didn't really significantly outplay Curry; he was only at 4.5 points per game higher, but on 4 extra minutes of play per game. LeBron was 7.1 points per game higher, but on 6.6 extra minutes of play per game. Those are better, but not terribly significantly.

And overall Finals production, lulz. Steph has outscored LeBron in PP48 with 32.3 to 32.1 in Finals games. Steph also has a higher EFG% in Finals games at 52.9%, compared to LeBron's 52.5% and Kyrie's 51.8%. The difference is even bigger for TS%, with Steph at 58.9%, LeBron at 56.3%, and Kyrie at 55.8%.

More importantly is Finals plus/minus where Steph is +103, while Kyrie is +6 and LeBron is... -86, oof.

I don't think there is anyone arguing that Curry is a better playoff player than LeBron. While his stats might seem better on paper, its an illusion. His scoring is on par or worse than his regular season, but he is more of a defensive liability and is constantly attacked and giving up baskets.
Its not a mark against his legacy and people shouldn't see it that way. You are comparing him against LeBron, one of, if not the goat. Curry isn't and can't be in that discussion because of his defense.

Also saying being "tired" from the 73-9 run is disingenuous, you think LeBron isn't tired from carrying a last place team to the finals. Fact is LeBron teams win because of LeBron pretty much exclusively, Curry helps his team to the win, but if he was replaced, those were still playoff, probably late playoff teams.

[Coniferous]

I don't think there is anyone arguing that Curry is a better playoff player than LeBron. While his stats might seem better on paper, its an illusion. His scoring is on par or worse than his regular season, but he is more of a defensive liability and is constantly attacked and giving up baskets.
Its not a mark against his legacy and people shouldn't see it that way. You are comparing him against LeBron, one of, if not the goat. Curry isn't and can't be in that discussion because of his defense.

Also saying being "tired" from the 73-9 run is disingenuous, you think LeBron isn't tired from carrying a last place team to the finals. Fact is LeBron teams win because of LeBron pretty much exclusively, Curry helps his team to the win, but if he was replaced, those were still playoff, probably late playoff teams.

Mostly agree with this, but I’m not sure the early Warriors teams would have been late playoffs (the Durant teams, sure).

Here’s a thought experiment that drives it home: put Lebron on the Warriors in 2017 in place of Curry, and match them up against the 2017 Warriors with Curry.

That’s a hopeless matchup for the Curry team - defensively they wouldn’t have a prayer of matching up. The Lebron team could play Lebron AI Durant Draymond Durant, or substitute out AI for a big. Who the hell does Curry guard? Meanwhile you throw some combo of Lebron AI Klay on Curry on the other end, which is a tough ask for Curry.

Against 95% of teams, Curry’s weaknesses aren’t an issue, but against the very best they become a factor.

The 2017 Warriors, with Durant as their best player, are my pick for greatest team ever, but switch in Lebron and they might win every game by 30.

[PhaelixWW]

Lebron provides a lot of value besides shooting and scoring - he has about 10 rpg in the finals, he’s a great defender, and he’s possibly the best passer in the league.

And Curry has far better ball handling skills, better off-ball movement, and most importantly is far more unselfish, drawing defenders to himself intentionally to provide open looks to his teammates without drastically affecting his own production.

4 of Lebron’s finals appearances came in the prehistoric era - going back to 2007 where the teams only had 82 possessions a game and both teams under .500 efg%. So his stats from that era have to be graded on a curve. Lebron since he returned to Cleveland has been a different beast.

Uh, whatever, but sure, I'll play that game. Grading on a curve, huh? Okay, let's compare points per 100 possessions, shall we? Curry has a higher rate in the Finals (114.6 to 108.7), the playoffs (120.7 to 113.9), as well as career (121.8 to 114.6).

But you said he's been a beast since being back in Cleveland, eh? Steph is still higher in the Finals (114.6 to 113.2). Lebron actually has a lower PP100 in the playoffs and regular season since coming back to Cleveland. Steph has also had the higher TS% than post-return LBJ at 58.9% to 57.6%.

Meanwhile Lebron has had some truly ridiculous finals performances - in 2017 he averaged 33/12/10 with a .630 ts%, along with his usual block and 1.5 steals. It’s really not very close between them.

Not really very close, lulz. Steph's line for the same Finals was 27/8/9 with a 61.9 TS% and 2.2 SPG. Those numbers are a lot closer than you're suggesting, especially because, yes, he unselfishly fed a lot of those looks to Durant, who rather impressed with a 35/8/5 on 69.8 TS% and a ridiculous 156.8 PP100.

And sure,+/-: Lebron’s teams have been the underdog in 6 of 9 finals, and he is 4-5. That’s largely a result of playing in the eastern conference.

LeBron had a cakewalk to the Finals in the Eastern Conference between 2014-15 and 2017-18 compared to the stacked Western Conference. LBJ went -66 during those years in the Finals.

This year may be different though - Lebron is clearly past his peak, who knows what happens with the Nets, and Giannis isn’t obviously at Durant or Lebron’s level yet as a playoff performer. I still think it’s likely that in a potential wcf or finals series, Curry is outperformed by the best player on the other team because that guys likely to be a freak. In a seven game series, you want someone who is just physically dominant and you can’t stop them even if you know what’s coming. Curry’s shooting is so ridiculous that he’s close to that level without physical dominance, but he’s not there.

The only thing that has ever legitimately stood in Steph's way are injuries. People love to point out the 2016 and 2019 Finals losses, but they often ignore the fact that the Warriors were a heartbeat away from winning the 2016 Finals and it took losing both Durant and Klay in the middle of the 2019 Finals to knock them out. The idea that only the tiniest differences would have yielded 5 straight Finals Championships is lost on some. But sure, console yourself with "he's not there".

[StillMcfuu]

Mostly agree with this, but I’m not sure the early Warriors teams would have been late playoffs (the Durant teams, sure).

Here’s a thought experiment that drives it home: put Lebron on the Warriors in 2017 in place of Curry, and match them up against the 2017 Warriors with Curry.

That’s a hopeless matchup for the Curry team - defensively they wouldn’t have a prayer of matching up. The Lebron team could play Lebron AI Durant Draymond Durant, or substitute out AI for a big. Who the hell does Curry guard? Meanwhile you throw some combo of Lebron AI Klay on Curry on the other end, which is a tough ask for Curry.

Against 95% of teams, Curry’s weaknesses aren’t an issue, but against the very best they become a factor.

The 2017 Warriors, with Durant as their best player, are my pick for greatest team ever, but switch in Lebron and they might win every game by 30.

If I put LeBron on any of the teams he has faced, swapping stars so to say, LeBron would be undefeated in the Finals... with the exception of maybe the Mavs and Thunder, although I'm not sure about the Thunder, you still either have Durant or Westbrook for the Thunder along with a LeBron that would give them a more functional defensive presence. That Mavs team was just straight up not as good as the Heat and still won, swapping Lebron for Dirk would just mean Dirk is winning for the Heat.

[Coniferous]

And Curry has far better ball handling skills, better off-ball movement, and most importantly is far more unselfish, drawing defenders to himself intentionally to provide open looks to his teammates without drastically affecting his own production.



Uh, whatever, but sure, I'll play that game. Grading on a curve, huh? Okay, let's compare points per 100 possessions, shall we? Curry has a higher rate in the Finals (114.6 to 108.7), the playoffs (120.7 to 113.9), as well as career (121.8 to 114.6).

But you said he's been a beast since being back in Cleveland, eh? Steph is still higher in the Finals (114.6 to 113.2). Lebron actually has a lower PP100 in the playoffs and regular season since coming back to Cleveland. Steph has also had the higher TS% than post-return LBJ at 58.9% to 57.6%.



Not really very close, lulz. Steph's line for the same Finals was 27/8/9 with a 61.9 TS% and 2.2 SPG. Those numbers are a lot closer than you're suggesting, especially because, yes, he unselfishly fed a lot of those looks to Durant, who rather impressed with a 35/8/5 on 69.8 TS% and a ridiculous 156.8 PP100.



LeBron had a cakewalk to the Finals in the Eastern Conference between 2014-15 and 2017-18 compared to the stacked Western Conference. LBJ went -66 during those years in the Finals.



The only thing that has ever legitimately stood in Steph's way are injuries. People love to point out the 2016 and 2019 Finals losses, but they often ignore the fact that the Warriors were a heartbeat away from winning the 2016 Finals and it took losing both Durant and Klay in the middle of the 2019 Finals to knock them out. The idea that only the tiniest differences would have yielded 5 straight Finals Championships is lost on some. But sure, console yourself with "he's not there".

ORating is a bad stat. Here’s the reality:

In 2015, Steph was 2nd best in finals behind Lebron
2016: 3rd behind Lebron and Kyrie
2017: 3rd behind Durant and Lebron
2018: Ditto (except Lebron was first)
2019: 2nd behind Kawhi

You are only including offensive numbers in your analysis… the defense and rebounding matter, and that’s where every one of those guys surpasses Curry.

Lebron’s efficiency numbers are torpedoed by the 2015 finals where the Cavs had nothing because Kyrie and Love were hurt, so Lebron just played volleyball at the hoop with Tristan Thompson and managed to eek out 2 wins and a 2-1 lead before the Warriors figured out how to stop it (btw, in that series Mozgov had a much higher net rating than Lebron, just to put a pin in how trash that stat is).

As far as finals +/-, I guess if we use that stat Robert Horry is like a top 10 all time player.

[StillMcfuu]

ORating is a bad stat. Here’s the reality:

In 2015, Steph was 2nd best in finals behind Lebron
2016: 3rd behind Lebron and Kyrie
2017: 3rd behind Durant and Lebron
2018: Ditto (except Lebron was first)
2019: 2nd behind Kawhi

You are only including offensive numbers in your analysis… the defense and rebounding matter, and that’s where every one of those guys surpasses Curry.

Lebron’s efficiency numbers are torpedoed by the 2015 finals where the Cavs had nothing because Kyrie and Love were hurt, so Lebron just played volleyball at the hoop with Tristan Thompson and managed to eek out 2 wins and a 2-1 lead before the Warriors figured out how to stop it (btw, in that series Mozgov had a much higher net rating than Lebron, just to put a pin in how trash that stat is).

As far as finals +/-, I guess if we use that stat Robert Horry is like a top 10 all time player.

And he has like 15 rings, he is the clear goat.

[Coniferous]

Kemba Walker demoted from starting PG to cheerleader. Finally.