Hey everyone, numbers guy here.
So let's take a look at the current situation.
ESPN has something called Total QBR which they defend in this article. Whether you agree with it or not, it's an objective number based on objective events. I could do the same thing with, say, total passing yards.
Anyhow, in 2021 regular season so far, the mean is 49.45, the median is 50.85, and the standard deviation is 11.92
In 2020, regular season, the mean was 58.28, the median was 59.8, and the standard deviation was 11.85
In 2019, the mean was 58.07 the median was 56.7 and the standard deviation was 12 even.
Further spot-checking in prior years gave similar results to 2020 and 2019, so I basically stopped looking.
Yes, 2021 is significantly lower than we've seen in recent years. I checked the 2021 rule changes, but did not see anything I could call the cause of this.
Then, just to be sure, I used yds/pass for anyone over XXX attempts. The results were different, in that they weren't different. 2021 2020 and 2019 all averaged about 7.3 yards per attempt.
Then I looked at sacks. By team, both averages are 25. In 2020, they were 35.5 and 36.5 Pro-rating 2021's number of games to a full season, that's also nearly identical. Huh.
Then I checked total passing attempts (by team). Same thing -- 2021 pro-rates to 2020 and 2019 very well.
So if
a) they're passing about the same per attempt, and
b) making the same number of attempts, and
c) not being sacked any more often
What's causing a dip in QB effectiveness?
I kept looking at stat after stat, and finally found what could be the answers.
One, 3rd down conversions are down, but 4th are up. I'm hardly an expert, but I
feel that this could be the result of a shift from passing towards running in do-or-die plays. But even if I'm right, that could be a symptom and not the cause.
Two, I think there's more rookie QBs this year. I don't watch 31/32 draft picks because if they're not the Eagles or playing the Eagles I don't really pay much attention, but after checking a few sites, it looks like there were 10 rookie QBs in 2021, but only 6 in 2020 and 7 in 2019. So it might be less "they're bad" and more "they're new and still getting the hang of things". It would also explain the previous point -- if you have a rookie QB and really need four yards right fucking
now, you might be more tempted to go for a running play than a passing play.
Anyhow, maybe in all this rambling something actually makes sense.