Russian invasion of Ukraine

[CostinR]

I am not even going to talk about the course of rouble. Memey example - pension in 2013 in USD was bigger than it is now, while it has doubled in size since then. That is how much the rouble "is worth".
How long do you think those reserves would hold up in case of shit?

I wouldn't confuse the value of the rubble to USD to the state of the Russian economy. As for inflation outside of a jump in 2015 due to sanctions hitting then it has been following trends that existed before the crisis.

Russia did take a hit in 2014/2015 but they adapted pretty quickly to the changing situation.

[Noradin]

The Soviet Union consisted of multiple Soviet republics similar to how the USA consists of multiple states or the UK consists of multiple nations. In addition to the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic there was the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, etc. These SSRs (with the exception of the Russian one) fell into three categories, they were either former countries like Moldova and Lithuania that had been absorbed into the USSR, or secondly they were former parts of other countries that had been absorbed into the USSR like Latvia and Estonia, or thirdly they were former parts of the Russian Empire that had been given enhanced status/standing in the new USSR, such as Ukraine and the eastern half of Belarus (the west of Belarus falling into type 2).

Sorry for the history lesson, I know nobody wants to learn on a weekend lol. But the information is important to understand the next point, which is that prior to 1991 when it left the USSR to forge its own path, Ukraine had never been a sovereign nation, merely a region of Russia and the Russian empire before that (and yes part of the Ottoman empire before that but unless there are any 240+ year old Ukrainians campaigning to re-join the Caliph it's not relevant to the current issue is it :P). What that means, is that prior to 1991 the Ukrainian borders were very fluid, and today there are a lot of areas and people inside those borders that used to be in Russia, plus people who grew up in what was the Ukrainian region of Russia and still consider themselves Russian.

Maybe you should take a look into your history books again, according to your definition the western part of Ukraine would fall into type 2.

[Beuargh]

"That is a kind of world we don’t want to return to, where big powers have a say or a kind of right to put limitations on what sovereign independent nations can do."

hypocrits saying that should look in the U.S. direction..... cause this is not a matter "to return" to that kind of things, this is happening right now and has been for a long time now. telling sovereign independent nations what they can do or not, telling their people how they should live their lives and shit.... it's "do what I say but don't look at what I do"

[YUPPIE]

The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's snap exercise near Ukraine's borders,' a White House source told the Washington Post this weekend as the intelligence briefing leaked.

'The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.'

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken last week made a tour of European allies to shore up support for Ukraine in the event it is attacked, with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov calling for more NATO troops - including British units - to be stationed in visible positions near the frontlines as a deterrent to Russia.

Meanwhile Biden is due to hold a phone call with Putin on Tuesday to try and defuse the situation, with Biden saying last week that he was preparing a 'package' of measures including sanctions to make it 'very hard' for the Russian leader to go through with any invasion.

EU and NATO allies have given their full backing to Biden to take a tougher stance against Putin after weeks of top-level intelligence sharing convinced leaders a Russian invasion is possible, the FT reported at the weekend.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...continues.html

[Orange Joe]

The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's snap exercise near Ukraine's borders,' a White House source told the Washington Post this weekend as the intelligence briefing leaked.

'The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.'

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken last week made a tour of European allies to shore up support for Ukraine in the event it is attacked, with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov calling for more NATO troops - including British units - to be stationed in visible positions near the frontlines as a deterrent to Russia.

Meanwhile Biden is due to hold a phone call with Putin on Tuesday to try and defuse the situation, with Biden saying last week that he was preparing a 'package' of measures including sanctions to make it 'very hard' for the Russian leader to go through with any invasion.

EU and NATO allies have given their full backing to Biden to take a tougher stance against Putin after weeks of top-level intelligence sharing convinced leaders a Russian invasion is possible, the FT reported at the weekend.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...continues.html

Imagine trying to quote dailyfail is a legit source...


https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-mail/

[Easo]

Some more equipment movement is happening, troop - much less. Shitload of bullshit presented by both sides. Urgh...

I wouldn't confuse the value of the rubble to USD to the state of the Russian economy. As for inflation outside of a jump in 2015 due to sanctions hitting then it has been following trends that existed before the crisis.

Russia did take a hit in 2014/2015 but they adapted pretty quickly to the changing situation.

That jump was huge, btw. Problem is that de facto trading currency of the world is USD, not RUB. This applies even to the Rusian goverment when they are doing foreign trade, not to mention the average person when he wants to buy some eletronical device. And he wants to buy a Western one, not Chinese or whatever is made locally. This applies to other spheres as well. Those prices have all gone up, while the purchasing power of said average citizen? Not so much. Russia really does not have this super stable independent economy.
TL;DR; - dollar tax is a thing.

Imagine trying to quote dailyfail is a legit source...


https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-mail/

Doesn't matter in this case, the general idea was reported the same by others too.

[Shalcker]

That jump was huge, btw. Problem is that de facto trading currency of the world is USD, not RUB. This applies even to the Rusian goverment when they are doing foreign trade, not to mention the average person when he wants to buy some eletronical device.

Russia doesn't do that much trade in USD after efforts to reduce US leverage; both EU and Chinese trade use their own currencies.

And he wants to buy a Western one, not Chinese or whatever is made locally.

Maybe someone in Moscow has such luxury; the rest goes with whatever satisfies their performance and price needs.

This applies to other spheres as well. Those prices have all gone up, while the purchasing power of said average citizen? Not so much. Russia really does not have this super stable independent economy.

Russia still has consistent trade surplus and growing reserves; as far as economy goes it is relatively stable.

But purchasing power did go down from peaks, and like in the rest of the world inflation goes up due to C19 disruptions.

[Azadina]

Maybe someone in Moscow has such luxury; the rest goes with whatever satisfies their performance and price needs.

You're saying that Russian citizens outside Moscow are poor as hell? So, vast majority? I'd imagine that kind of implication makes a country look pretty bad. I'm impressed you'd voice it out like that. Has to cost quite a few meals.

[Shalcker]

You're saying that Russian citizens outside Moscow are poor as hell? So, vast majority?

Is vast majority of Americans poorer then those living in San-Francisco area on average? Yes.

Same thing.

I'd imagine that kind of implication makes a country look pretty bad. I'm impressed you'd voice it out like that. Has to cost quite a few meals.

Moscow alone represents around 12% of total Russian population. It also siphons talent from provinces (in a similar way SF area does).

Higher wages come with both higher expectations and higher costs though; you can live in provinces on average provincial wages.

[Azadina]

Is vast majority of Americans poorer then those living in San-Francisco area on average? Yes.

Same thing.

Moscow alone represents around 12% of total Russian population. It also siphons talent from provinces (in a similar way SF area does).

Higher wages come with both higher expectations and higher costs though; you can live in provinces on average provincial wages.

Not the same thing, since the vast majority outside SF isn't too poor to afford western products. Don't forget the context in which it was said.

[Shalcker]

Not the same thing, since the vast majority outside SF isn't too poor to afford western products. Don't forget the context in which it was said.

You mean vast majority of US?

Wealthy US citizens can afford "Western" products, as do wealthy Russians; poor ones can afford imported Chinese, just like Russians.

[Easo]

Shalcker with his absolutely non-standard compared-to-average-Russian job is trying to pretend Russians do not prefer Western products, even if they are more expensive.
Lol. People had enough with the Soviet shitware, no one is going back to that unless absolutely necessary (and that is not a good thing, or something to be proud of).

[Shalcker]

Shalcker with his absolutely non-standard compared-to-average-Russian job is trying to pretend Russians do not prefer Western products, even if they are more expensive.

Depends entirely on how much they can spare for quality.
...and a lot of "Western Brands" come manufactured from China either way (or assembled locally for tax breaks), so even chasing something Western isn't quality guarantee.

Lol. People had enough with the Soviet shitware, no one is going back to that unless absolutely necessary (and that is not a good thing, or something to be proud of).

Still have some Soviet stuff in my house.

Just like anything else, some was shit, some wasn't.

[Biglog]

The unfortunate part in all this is I can understand the frustration on all sides, which is why this situation is so extraordinarily dangerous. Russia doesn't want a hostile NATO country on it's borders potentially with missiles that can reach Moscow in 5 minutes, and they have openly stated this repeatedly. This is something they view as a red line and worthy of war if necessary. Ukraine already has essentially given up Crimea, Donbass, plus gave up it's nukes in 1994 for guarantees of border sovereignty from Russia which has not been honored. So the idea of giving up more when they already ignored past agreements is not appealing. And the US is trying to stop Russia from repeating the seizure of territory as they did in Crimea, or continuing on to Western Europe and starting WW3 which is a valid concern while Russia-Belarus is actively threatening Poland as well.

The game Putin appears to be playing is brinksmanship, mobilizing over 100k soldiers earlier this year in an unveiled threat hoping that would scare Ukraine into backing off it's desire to join NATO. It didn't work, but Putin doesn't really want war any more than Ukraine or the West does and is pushing the invasion threat to the max to send the message that the Ukraine-NATO red line is real. So now he pushing the brink further positioning enough troops for a complete takeover of Ukraine, not just for a larger pro-Russia buffer zone in Ukraine's territory. So this is what's so worrying. The West is going to send (modest) help to Ukraine as long as Russia is threatening them in such an extreme way, and Russia isn't going to back down unless Ukraine reverses course and pulls it's application for NATO. They are really looking for more than that, including assurances Ukraine won't join in the future.

So it's a bit of a cowboy standoff, and unless 1 side or the other blinks it could soon go very badly. The fact that Putin and Biden are having a direct call right at this minute over it shows how bad the situation is. I think of the reservists called up that are on the front lines, probably not ready as true professional soldiers and with mostly outdated tech, facing state of the art weapons and real soldiers/special ops on the other side. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict last year had that situation and the reservists fought incredibly bravely but sadly tended to end up like cannon fodder in the mismatch.

[Fugus]

@Biglog

Unless those talks also require Russia to give back Crimea, I hope they are denied.

Brinksmanship or not, Russia shouldn’t be rewarded for what they have done. Bad enough the stuff he got away with with traitor boy Trump ducking his dick the last couple years.

[Shalcker]

Ukraine already has essentially given up Crimea, Donbass, plus gave up it's nukes in 1994 for guarantees of border sovereignty from Russia which has not been honored. So the idea of giving up more when they already ignored past agreements is not appealing.

Ukraine already ignored past agreements that allowed them to retake Donbass as long as they provided amnesty to people there and a few other conditions. But there are no other agreements available, and noone is interested in negotiating them - Ukraine most of all.

Now Ukraine uses Donbass as bargaining chip to drum up local and international support (as their pipelines become less relevant), and given local legitimacy crisis seems to be looking at option of military Donbass solution to shore up Zelensky's ratings (among other).

Something to which "troop buildup" can be seen as deterrent.

The game Putin appears to be playing is brinksmanship, mobilizing over 100k soldiers earlier this year in an unveiled threat hoping that would scare Ukraine into backing off it's desire to join NATO.

It has little to do with "Ukrainian desire to join NATO" (which isn't going to come true anytime soon, if ever) and a lot to do with "Ukrainian desire to use NATO backing/forces as tripwire against Russian response to their agression in Donbass" - similar to Saakashvili feeling emboldened by US support in Georgia to attack South Ossetia despite not being NATO member.

Situation makes a lot more sense this way.

[Biglog]

I agree on not wanting to reward brinksmanship. But the issue in Crimea and the Donbass is the old saying that possession is 9/10ths of the law, and was cemented when Russia gave citizenship to citizens in Crimea and very recently the Donbass. A bold move, but now Russia claims that since they are (now) Russian citizens they are militarily obligated to "protect them" from aggression. They are really just pawns in the larger game though.

It is kind of a crazy way to justify border expansion. Give citizenship to people in a bordering country, say you must protect them since they are citizens, and then invade based on that premise that you are just protecting your citizens. But in the chess game for Russia it's not really about the people in the Donbass or Crimea, it's all about Russia not having a NATO bordering country.

Putin also recently told Xi that China could take Taiwan "without firing a shot" if it wanted to. Which in a way tipped the hand that Putin is playing in Ukraine.

[Fugus]

But even with them having them now, I would force them to relinquish that control unless they want to go to war.

Make them understand that we won’t reward that behavior and if you want to play chicken, we will have that head on collision before we blink and he knows just what his chances are in that collision and it won’t be just him in that wreck but all his people and his own family who played along with it while he was in power.

But if you reward that behavior then you encourage them to do it again.

Edit: I am not saying attack his children or anything like that when they aren’t involved or any of that but to hold them accountable to whatever involvement they had as well as the fact of Putin knowing that every dime he has hidden or stashed away will be seized and used to repay for his crimes so he will have nothing to give his kids after he is gone and they will have to start from scratch trying to eek out a living with the cloud over their head that they were his kid and he is hated making their lives that much harder to the point his own kids may end up disowning him and changing their names just for a chance at a life.

[Shalcker]

Edit: I am not saying attack his children or anything like that when they aren’t involved or any of that but to hold them accountable to whatever involvement they had as well as the fact of Putin knowing that every dime he has hidden or stashed away will be seized and used to repay for his crimes so he will have nothing to give his kids after he is gone and they will have to start from scratch trying to eek out a living with the cloud over their head that they were his kid and he is hated making their lives that much harder to the point his own kids may end up disowning him and changing their names just for a chance at a life.

Do you realize that you're trying to threaten family of a guy who could dispatch assassins anywhere in the world, with extreme range of options to get someone killed?

That his family connections are quite entrenched, and to destroy their "livehood" you would need not to destroy "things he stashed" but actual pillars of Russian economy? (for example, supposedly at one point one of her daughter's husbands was just given 1 billion in GazProm shares as a loan; that were taken away when they divorced)

That his wife already divorced him, and his kids already had their family names changed?

[Fugus]

Do you realize that you're trying to threaten family of a guy who could dispatch assassins anywhere in the world, with extreme range of options to get someone killed?

That his family connections are quite entrenched, and to destroy their "livehood" you would need not to destroy "things he stashed" but actual pillars of Russian economy? (for example, supposedly at one point one of her daughter's husbands was just given 1 billion in GazProm shares as a loan; that were taken away when they divorced)

That his wife already divorced him, and his kids already had their family names changed?

I understand you are trying to defend your master but if you look at what I said, I wasn't personally threatening anyone. I was saying that the US and NATO need to play that game with him and let him know that he doesn't want to play chicken with people much better equip to handle that collision then himself and that if he does play that game, he will lose and it will impact not only him but those who were helping him, both family and friend, and that even his own family who stayed out of his affairs would not leave unscathed as he will have nothing to leave them and their name would be forever tarnished thanks to their father.

Similar to what Jared Foggels kids would have to deal with if he has any.

Not that you ever posted anything in good faith.

But I never once threatened anyone in that post personally.

Edit:

But if you are trying to elude that Putin would track me down personally and kill me because I suggested what the US and NATO should do even though I have zero power and authority, you have even less respect for Putin than I do as no one in their right mind thinks he got to where he is today being THAT petty.