Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Milchshake]

White Supremacists saying out loud they want an alliance with Mr. Putin.

[Ihavewaffles]

hyperbole sjw rhetoric.. so cringe when u call anyone to the right of antifa for 'white supremacists'

Really, go form a club with seth rogen or something

[Lenonis]

hyperbole sjw rhetoric.. so cringe when u call anyone to the right of antifa for 'white supremacists'

Really, go form a club with seth rogen or something

I'm not sure white knighting for Tucker Carlson is such a great idea given his track record on using white supremacist talking points.

[Milchshake]

Ongoing in: White Supremecists stanning for Putin

This is quite embarrassing for Eastern European ‘nationalists’.

They invited Le Pen for a summit in Poland but she gave an interview talking about her belief in ‘spheres of influence’, the concept that er… crushed Eastern European nations. She wants it repeated.

[Shalcker]

Ongoing in: White Supremecists stanning for Putin

Quite a lot of white supremacists stood with Ukraine too.

Or went there to shoot some Russians.



Not seeing how "Entire world is US sphere of influence" made anything better either.

[Easo]

So Biden and Putin had long video call yesterday, primarily regarding Ukraine. We know little about exact points talked about. Things like Russia's demand that "Ukraine should never be accepted in NATO" is obviously a NO. In general, nothing gained nothing lost seems to be the case, which is a small point towards no war.

Reports also say that USA is preparing "serious sanctions" in case shit actually goes down, including the much discussed SWIFT block, that Germany has agreed to block the NS2 gas pipe and that EU is also preparing for something similar.

Ongoing in: White Supremecists stanning for Putin

This is quite embarrassing for Eastern European ‘nationalists’.

They invited Le Pen for a summit in Poland but she gave an interview talking about her belief in ‘spheres of influence’, the concept that er… crushed Eastern European nations. She wants it repeated.

I am not entirely sure what is your point...?

[YUPPIE]

So Biden and Putin had long video call yesterday, primarily regarding Ukraine. We know little about exact points talked about. Things like Russia's demand that "Ukraine should never be accepted in NATO" is obviously a NO. In general, nothing gained nothing lost seems to be the case, which is a small point towards no war.

Reports also say that USA is preparing "serious sanctions"

at which point will these monotonous sanctions actually cause the Russians to panic instead of them brushing it off while acting smug. This SWIFT block you mentioned for example

[Easo]

at which point will these monotonous sanctions actually cause the Russians to panic instead of them brushing it off while acting smug. This SWIFT block you mentioned for example

Russians or Kremlin? There is a difference and it is a well known thing Russians are quite passive regarding goverment treading on them. Sanctions do not work immediately, when people are finally going to get it? RUB course has never recovered since 2014, leading to the "funny" situation of having pensions doubled since then but practically receiving less money than before.

You do realize what SWIFT is, right? Getting cut out from that means Russia is gonna experience yet another money drain. Foreign investors from West (and not only) will become more rare, lot of existing ones are likely to pull out. Do I need to remind that West is the most paying capable part of the world, read, they have the cash?
P.S.
Incoming Shalcker again bullshiting about the great economy of Russia for the average dude.

[YUPPIE]

Russians or Kremlin? There is a difference and it is a well known thing Russians are quite passive regarding goverment treading on them. Sanctions do not work immediately, when people are finally going to get it? RUB course has never recovered since 2014, leading to the "funny" situation of having pensions doubled since then but practically receiving less money than before.

You do realize what SWIFT is, right? Getting cut out from that means Russia is gonna experience yet another money drain. Foreign investors from West (and not only) will become more rare, lot of existing ones are likely to pull out. Do I need to remind that West is the most paying capable part of the world, read, they have the cash?
P.S.
Incoming Shalcker again bullshiting about the great economy of Russia for the average dude.

I'm just wondering if it's actually possible to implement crippling sanctions without provoking the Kremlin into launching nukes or declaring war. Anything less has just had them interfering with other's politics and murdering people

[Shalcker]

at which point will these monotonous sanctions actually cause the Russians to panic instead of them brushing it off while acting smug. This SWIFT block you mentioned for example

SWIFT block was proposed years ago and for years already has substitute system in place in case of emergency.

It'll cause disruption for a few weeks while everyone switches and deals with inevitable bugs, and then it will be back to business as usual.

Other proposed restrictions likely to hurt EU more then Russia given Russian positive trade balance (since Russia sells more to EU then it buys).

[Easo]

I'm just wondering if it's actually possible to implement crippling sanctions without provoking the Kremlin into launching nukes or declaring war. Anything less has just had them interfering with other's politics and murdering people

Dude, Russia is not going to launch fucking nukes because of cripling sanctions. This is not a videogame.

SWIFT block was proposed years ago and for years already has substitute system in place in case of emergency.

It'll cause disruption for a few weeks while everyone switches and deals with inevitable bugs, and then it will be back to business as usual.

Other proposed restrictions likely to hurt EU more then Russia given Russian positive trade balance (since Russia sells more to EU then it buys).

I don't think you get it... Western companies are much less likely to do any deals with Russian ones in such a case. They are not gonna use your SPFS, get a grip.

[Shalcker]

I don't think you get it... Western companies are much less likely to do any deals with Russian ones in such a case. They are not gonna use your SPFS, get a grip.

They have to buy from Russia, which means they have to engage with Russian bank system one way or another.

SWIFT is inter-bank protocol, it doesn't affect anyone else.

[YUPPIE]

Dude, Russia is not going to launch fucking nukes because of crippling sanctions.

The fear of nukes is them being in the hands of a spiteful madman with nothing left to lose. When I said "crippling" sanctions, I mean it.

[Milchshake]

#BREAKING France warns Russia of 'strategic and massive' consequences if Ukraine threatened


The French are fun because they'll shit all over you and your cuisine when times are good.
But jump in the trenches when times are bad. Simply because the idea of a mega-crisis happening without France being a main character is incomprehensible to them.

[Easo]

They have to buy from Russia, which means they have to engage with Russian bank system one way or another.

SWIFT is inter-bank protocol, it doesn't affect anyone else.

You highly overestimate the need to buy from you as opposed to you buying from West.

The fear of nukes is them being in the hands of a spiteful madman with nothing left to lose. When I said "crippling" sanctions, I mean it.

Less video games. Elite will live comfortably regardless of sanctions.

[Gaidax]

The fear of nukes is them being in the hands of a spiteful madman with nothing left to lose. When I said "crippling" sanctions, I mean it.

There won't be any of it.

You people really need to get off these "madman with nukes and nothing to lose" drugs. It's not going to be a thing state level like Russia, exactly because there is WAY too much to lose.

---

Want to know what will eventually happen? It will be one of the following

1. Russia will eventually annex the separatist region, US/EU will put up some slap on the wrist sanctions that will evaporate over time.
-OR-
2. Russia will preserve current status quo as a pressure tool to keep Ukraine in check. Get some concessions from the West.

I think it will probably be (2) after all.

[Shalcker]

You highly overestimate the need to buy from you as opposed to you buying from West.

West buys more from us then we buy from West, that is a fact.

Sure, you could stop buying gas and enjoy it tripling in price, with immediate impact on price of electricity and heating (in the middle of winter), and later knock-on effects on fertilizer and then food production.

[Gaidax]

You highly overestimate the need to buy from you as opposed to you buying from West.

I think it's just copium statement.

Like I'm most certainly not a lover of Russia, but lets look at the facts here - Russia is a major energy supplier for EU and it's not going anywhere on that front. There is no viable way to fill that void that won't lead to tremendous financial and political costs for EU countries and this will stay this way for a foreseeable future.

That's why EU sanctions on Russia will always be very careful and very watered down. Sure politicians will drum it up as "tough unprecedented response" and so on, but they know full well if they go over the line, the costs for them will be too high as well.

That is why Russia can do shit it does and get away with it, whether it's Crimea or all these numerous "people's republics". Nobody will go to war over that and nobody will push actual tough sanctions either, except for US, because they will bite back.

[Shalcker]

Putin wins concession from Biden for Russia-Nato security deal talks
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Russian President Vladimir Putin won a major concession from US President Joe Biden, who has agreed to talks involving Russia and four major Nato members to discuss European security arrangements, it was reported on December 8.

Putin and Biden met for a second online summit on December 7 where the Russian president demanded “legal guarantees” that Nato would not expand further east – something that Biden is in no position to promise, as he cannot speak on behalf of the 30-member treaty.

But Biden said the next day that he was organising a meeting between Russian officials and four other Nato members by the end of this week to "discuss the future of Russia's concerns relative to Nato writ large" and whether or not accommodations could be worked out as it related to "bringing down the temperature along the eastern front,” Biden said as cited by Reuters.
...
"There were no minced words," Biden said as cited by Reuters. "I made it very clear: if in fact he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences, severe consequences, economic consequences like none he's ever seen or ever have been seen," he said.
...
The threat against Ukraine is a headache for the West, which is committed to supporting Ukraine in its efforts to face down Russian aggression and an undeclared war in the east of the country, but Biden reiterated the United States would not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily if it were attacked by Russia.

"That is not on the table," Biden said when asked if US troops would be used to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"It would depend upon what the rest of the Nato countries were willing to do as well," Biden said. "But the idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not ... in the cards right now.”
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Anything you get for "not doing" something you never planned to do is net positive.

[CostinR]

Things like Russia's demand that "Ukraine should never be accepted in NATO" is obviously a NO. In general, nothing gained nothing lost seems to be the case, which is a small point towards no war.

While I do firmly believe we shouldn't bow down to Russia's demands on who does and does not enter NATO I'll be quite blunt in saying: Fuck Ukraine joining NATO.

Every single Eastern European country went through many years of hard painful reforms to get the privilege, Ukraine does not in any way deserve it. They are little better then a full blown Mafia state, and even Russia is better then they are!

This is a side point I know but really don't fancy the idea of Ukraine getting a pass on the many horrible things it does as a country just because they are a buffer to Russia.