The Brexit aftermath thread

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Well Huey the results are in this morning from a poll of over 60,000 good people of Kent. Well done on getting the 151 people who turned out to vote for Rejoin EU, or 0.2% of the vote. Can we take from that that 99.8% are contented with how Brexit is going? Honestly I think we can, they'd vote to rejoin the EU otherwise wouldn't they?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_O...up_by-election

Of course you will say that one by election doth not a Brexit referendum make, but surely it is more accurate than a few hundred responses to a survey over the telephone. And it isn't just one by election, these things happen quite frequently. Another in a couple of weeks in Shropshire I gather.

Rejoin EU, if they can cope with continually losing their deposit, will be trounced once again by patriotic Brexiteers.

First of all, it was a poll of 21,733 voters, not 60,000.

The Tories lost 13% of the electorate in this by-election.

In other words, one sixth of the electorate in one of the most conservative constituencies in the country voted for the Conservatives. Coincidentally, that's about the proportion of the electorate who, according to the poll you kindly provided last week, think that Brexit is "Going Well".

That kind of swing in a general election would lose the Tories all of those traditionally-labour seats that they won two years ago.

[dribbles]

First of all, it was a poll of 21,733 voters, not 60,000.

The Tories lost 13% of the electorate in this by-election.

In other words, one sixth of the electorate in one of the most conservative constituencies in the country voted for the Conservatives. Coincidentally, that's about the proportion of the electorate who, according to the poll you kindly provided last week, think that Brexit is "Going Well".

That kind of swing in a general election would lose the Tories all of those traditionally-labour seats that they won two years ago.

There were a possible 64,831 votes up for grabs in Bexley by Rejoin EU.

This is not about a few points swing back and forth between Labour and the Tories but about where the state of play is on the possibilities of the UK electorate wanting to send a clear message to the serving government and express their desire to rejoin the EU.

Back in 2016 there were tens of thousands of remainers living in and around Bexley who at the time of the referendum, having been lied to and scared by project fear, placed their X in the remain box of their ballot paper. Source

5 years on and Brexit is in the here and now, how many of those substantial number of remainers would say they want to reverse Brexit and Rejoin EU.

We have our answer, it was 151. From tens of thousands of remain EU supporters to 151 in just 5 years. Clearly those remainers in 2016, having experienced the benefits and wonders of Brexit, are more than content with the state of play and happy to be outside of the EU.

Re-joining the EU is a pipe dream, the reality is there are too many Brexit benefits. And on Thursday the people of Bexley gave their verdict.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

There were a possible 64,831 votes up for grabs in Bexley by Rejoin EU.

This is not about a few points swing back and forth between Labour and the Tories but about where the state of play is on the possibilities of the UK electorate wanting to send a clear message to the serving government and express their desire to rejoin the EU.

Back in 2016 there were tens of thousands of remainers living in and around Bexley who at the time of the referendum, having been lied to and scared by project fear, placed their X in the remain box of their ballot paper. Source

5 years on and Brexit is in the here and now, how many of those substantial number of remainers would say they want to reverse Brexit and Rejoin EU.

We have our answer, it was 151. From tens of thousands of remain EU supporters to 151 in just 5 years. Clearly those remainers in 2016, having experienced the benefits and wonders of Brexit, are more than content with the state of play and happy to be outside of the EU.

Re-joining the EU is a pipe dream, the reality is there are too many Brexit benefits. And on Thursday the people of Bexley gave their verdict.

I can be disingenuous too: What about the tens of thousands of Leave voters who didn't vote Tory or UKIP in this election? Clearly they don't believe that the Tory Brexit policy (or that of your chums down at the UKIP office) is the correct way forwards, otherwise more than 11,000 of them would have turned out to vote on Thursday. This is a clear repudiation of Brexit by one of the most Conservative-leaning constituencies in the country.

[Huehuecoyotl]

There were a possible 64,831 votes up for grabs in Bexley by Rejoin EU.

This is not about a few points swing back and forth between Labour and the Tories but about where the state of play is on the possibilities of the UK electorate wanting to send a clear message to the serving government and express their desire to rejoin the EU.

Back in 2016 there were tens of thousands of remainers living in and around Bexley who at the time of the referendum, having been lied to and scared by project fear, placed their X in the remain box of their ballot paper. Source

5 years on and Brexit is in the here and now, how many of those substantial number of remainers would say they want to reverse Brexit and Rejoin EU.

We have our answer, it was 151. From tens of thousands of remain EU supporters to 151 in just 5 years. Clearly those remainers in 2016, having experienced the benefits and wonders of Brexit, are more than content with the state of play and happy to be outside of the EU.

Re-joining the EU is a pipe dream, the reality is there are too many Brexit benefits. And on Thursday the people of Bexley gave their verdict.

Newsflash for you dribbles; unlike Brexiteers, normal people are capable of keeping multiple ideas in their mind at the same time. And voting isn't just about a single issue. This election tells us nothing about what people's views are on Brexit.

But we do have a recent poll that tells us what they think of Brexit. And the fact is that most people think it's pretty shit. And that's while we STILL haven't left properly. We're still in transition, because the bunch of morons and chancers in charge of it still aren't ready for their version of Brexit even after all this time.

What we have at the minute is a BINO. We haven't really left properly, but the damage it's done has caused 82% of the country to lose faith in it. What that number will go down to once the transition period ends and things get worse is hard to judge. We know there is a hardcore of people willing to ignore pretty much any aspect of reality to cling onto the notion that Brexit is good.

Has Frost triggered Article 16 yet? He's been threatening it for weeks now, yet nothing. It's almost as if it's a transparent bluff that wouldn't fool a toddler. Frost is playing "got your nose" with adults, who are just looking at him like he's a fucking idiot. Which he is.

Face it dribbles; your side won, and proved themselves utterly unable to properly manage the Brexit the people voted for. They've fucked it up, lost the support of the people, and now it's only a matter of time before we get pulled back to closer ties with the EU. In winning, your side has truly lost. It's hilarious to watch.

[zealo]

Newsflash for you dribbles; unlike Brexiteers, normal people are capable of keeping multiple ideas in their mind at the same time. And voting isn't just about a single issue. This election tells us nothing about what people's views are on Brexit.

But we do have a recent poll that tells us what they think of Brexit. And the fact is that most people think it's pretty shit. And that's while we STILL haven't left properly. We're still in transition, because the bunch of morons and chancers in charge of it still aren't ready for their version of Brexit even after all this time.

What we have at the minute is a BINO. We haven't really left properly, but the damage it's done has caused 82% of the country to lose faith in it. What that number will go down to once the transition period ends and things get worse is hard to judge. We know there is a hardcore of people willing to ignore pretty much any aspect of reality to cling onto the notion that Brexit is good.

Has Frost triggered Article 16 yet? He's been threatening it for weeks now, yet nothing. It's almost as if it's a transparent bluff that wouldn't fool a toddler. Frost is playing "got your nose" with adults, who are just looking at him like he's a fucking idiot. Which he is.

Face it dribbles; your side won, and proved themselves utterly unable to properly manage the Brexit the people voted for. They've fucked it up, lost the support of the people, and now it's only a matter of time before we get pulled back to closer ties with the EU. In winning, your side has truly lost. It's hilarious to watch.

The transition period formally ended in January of this year. That the clowns in charge couldn’t handle preparing for what that means properly is a separate matter from what the status of the UK’s formal relation to the EU is.

About the only part of the UK that is still somewhat in an EU bubble compared to the rest of the UK is northern ireland, and that’s it.

[Huehuecoyotl]

The transition period formally ended in January of this year. That the clowns in charge couldn’t handle preparing for what that means properly is a separate matter from what the status of the UK’s formal relation to the EU is.

About the only part of the UK that is still somewhat in an EU bubble compared to the rest of the UK is northern ireland, and that’s it.

Nope. Not correct I'm afraid. The UK has been rolling over some of the transition processes relating to custom checks. Because they haven't yet hired the 100k new customs staff required, or put in place all the infrastructure needed to do all the checks needed. That's happened multiple times now. No idea how long it will be until those are removed. I guess it depends on how long the EU is prepared to keep allowing for the UK incompetence.

[Gorsameth]

The transition period formally ended in January of this year. That the clowns in charge couldn’t handle preparing for what that means properly is a separate matter from what the status of the UK’s formal relation to the EU is.

About the only part of the UK that is still somewhat in an EU bubble compared to the rest of the UK is northern ireland, and that’s it.

To make things confusing there are multiple transition periods. The one where the UK was leaving but hadn't left yet, that ended jan 2021. And the transition period between the UK leaving for realz and all border measures being fully implemented. which is still ongoing and which the UK has extended for certain things to avoid further disaster.

Here are some examples of the 'transition' that is still in progress and has been extended that I found in a 5 seconds google search.

The requirement for pre-notification of agri-food imports will be introduced on 1 January 2022 as opposed to 1 October 2021.
The new requirements for Export Health Certificates, which were due to be introduced on 1 October 2021, will now be introduced on 1 July 2022.
Phytosanitary Certificates and physical checks on SPS goods at Border Control Posts, due to be introduced on 1 January 2022, will now be introduced on 1 July 2022.
The requirement for Safety and Security declarations on imports will be introduced as of 1 July 2022 as opposed to 1 January 2022.

So as you can see, until atleast half way through 2022 the UK and EU will still be in a transition stage with regards to certain border checks. Assume dates don't get pushed yet further.

[Huehuecoyotl]

To make things confusing there are multiple transition periods. The one where the UK was leaving but hadn't left yet, that ended jan 2021. And the transition period between the UK leaving for realz and all border measures being fully implemented. which is still ongoing and which the UK has extended for certain things to avoid further disaster.

Here are some examples of the 'transition' that is still in progress and has been extended that I found in a 5 seconds google search.


So as you can see, until atleast half way through 2022 the UK and EU will still be in a transition stage with regards to certain border checks. Assume dates don't get pushed yet further.

Only on the UK side, don't forget. The EU checks are all in place; they're competent and able to provide solutions to agreed deadlines. So it's the imports to the UK where we keep having to push things back. Because the Brexiteers running things are both lazy and stupid, and can't do what's required for their own Brexit.

At least £100m a week all those extra customs staff and costs will be once they're in place. Didn't see that on the side of a bus, did you?

[zealo]

The UK not having it's house fully in order for controlling what's coming into the country from the EU isn't a transition agreement with the EU, that's the UK having failed to properly prepare for their Brexit and thus needing to take more practical unilateral measures with customs operations in the meantime.

The UK, exempting Northern Ireland, is not in a BINO, things would be proceeding far more smoothly than they are if you had what could be called a BINO.

[Veggie50]

The UK not having it's house fully in order for controlling what's coming into the country from the EU isn't a transition agreement with the EU, that's the UK having failed to properly prepare for their Brexit and thus needing to take more practical unilateral measures with customs operations in the meantime.

The UK, exempting Northern Ireland, is not in a BINO, things would be proceeding far more smoothly than they are if you had what could be called a BINO.

Any “INO” term is just derogatory slang. The true meaning behind it has fallen to colloquial use.

I agree there is no official transition agreement, but on the other hand it is also clear that the UK is still transitioning to the new reality. Once all agreed measures are put into place, one can speak of (and see the full impact of) brexit.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Just a reminder for everyone; we are 6 weeks on from Frost (and dribbles) telling us that the UK would be triggering Article 16 "any day" in an attempt to bluff the EU into backing down on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The EU ignored the UK, and Frost has done.....nothing. Not a thing. It's almost as if it was an obvious bluff from day 1, and he's now sitting there realising he has zero leverage.

And still NI enjoys a much stronger economy than the rest of the UK, because they continue to enjoy unrestricted trade with the EU, while we don't.

Brexit. The shit-sandwich you'll be tasting for the rest of your life. Mmmmmm.

[dribbles]

Just a reminder for everyone; we are 6 weeks on from Frost (and dribbles) telling us that the UK would be triggering Article 16 "any day" in an attempt to bluff the EU into backing down on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The EU ignored the UK, and Frost has done.....nothing. Not a thing. It's almost as if it was an obvious bluff from day 1, and he's now sitting there realising he has zero leverage.

And still NI enjoys a much stronger economy than the rest of the UK, because they continue to enjoy unrestricted trade with the EU, while we don't.

Brexit. The shit-sandwich you'll be tasting for the rest of your life. Mmmmmm.

And we might and we might not trigger Article 16. The power is all held in the UK, a Brexit benefit of course, if the EU get fed up with the UK "will they won't they" games they can always trigger Article 16 themselves if they dare. We still aren't going to implement the WA we signed up to properly whatever the EU say and there's nothing the EU can do about it. Where are any of those extra 100k customs officers you keep banging on about? Nowhere in sight and every week that goes by according to your calculations another £100 million a week is saved, we should put that on the side of a bus.

In a recent poll of more than 64000 UK people only 151 thought that Brexit was enough of a shit-sandwich and opted to vote Rejoin EU.

I rest my case.

[Edge-]

And we might and we might not trigger Article 16.

Eventually, making the same threat gets old and no longer carries any weight. It's like that mouthy runt in the neighborhood that always threatens that his bigger brother is totally gonna beat you up. And then you discover his bigger brother lives in another country and hasn't been home in 20 years, so probably isn't going to be making the stop by to beat you up.

In a recent poll of more than 64000 UK people only 151 thought that Brexit was enough of a shit-sandwich and opted to vote Rejoin EU.

I rest my case.

Curious you don't bother linking to this poll.

Curious indeed.

Does it actually exist?

[zealo]

Curious you don't bother linking to this poll.

Curious indeed.

Does it actually exist?

He's referring to a by-election in a safe tory seat as an opinion poll on Brexit. Again.

The vote took place, but hardly in the context Dribbles is trying to imply it is.

[Edge-]

He's referring to a by-election in a safe tory seat as an opinion poll on Brexit. Again.

The vote took place, but hardly in the context Dribbles is trying to imply it is.

Ah, so the 151 are the votes for the Rejoin EU party.

It's telling that these folks have to lie and/or misrepresent information so regularly. That or they genuinely don't understand the information which...is potentially worse.

[Zaydin]

Ah, so the 151 are the votes for the Rejoin EU party.

It's telling that these folks have to lie and/or misrepresent information so regularly. That or they genuinely don't understand the information which...is potentially worse.

Normally I'd argue Hanlon's Razor should be assumed first but this is dribbles we are talking about so malice/deliberately lying is highly possible for him.

[Xarkan]

Normally I'd argue Hanlon's Razor should be assumed first but this is dribbles we are talking about so malice/deliberately lying is highly possible for him.

How about a new razor

Never assume malice or stupidity where laziness could be a satisfying answer..

I am not saying it applies but try that first

[Veggie50]

And we might and we might not trigger Article 16. The power is all held in the UK, a Brexit benefit of course, if the EU get fed up with the UK "will they won't they" games they can always trigger Article 16 themselves if they dare. We still aren't going to implement the WA we signed up to properly whatever the EU say and there's nothing the EU can do about it. Where are any of those extra 100k customs officers you keep banging on about? Nowhere in sight and every week that goes by according to your calculations another £100 million a week is saved, we should put that on the side of a bus.

In a recent poll of more than 64000 UK people only 151 thought that Brexit was enough of a shit-sandwich and opted to vote Rejoin EU.

I rest my case.

Brexiteer logic:
Brexiteers: “We want control of our borders, so we want out of the EU!”

EU: “thats a bad idea, the EU is very gainful to be in, the costs of leaving would be really high.”

Brexiteers: “nu-uh, it won’t! It’ll be great with bigly success!”

—-brexit wins referendum—-

EU: “oh well, congrats I suppose. How you wanna do this?”

Brexiteers: “We dunno… we didn’t think we’d get this far…”

EU: “well ya’ll let us know when and how you wanna do this then.”

—-years later—-

Brexiteers: “ok, we’ve drawn up the withdrawal agreement, let’s do this bitchezzzz! Bigly success!”

EU: “still sounds like a bad idea, but okily-dokily.”

—-EU implements their part of the withdrawal agreement—-

EU: “so hows the brexit implementation going UK?”

Brexiteers: “fuck you, you know how much money implementing this would cost us? Stop trying to make us do brexit!”

[Huehuecoyotl]

Talking of the EU:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...r-eu-proposals

I'm pretty sure I remember dribbles talking about how Brexit would make everything wonderful for UK workers. I also distinctly remember Boris including in his manifesto for the 2019 election that he would bring in legislation improving the lot of low paid workers. No such legislation has been forthcoming. None is likely to appear in the immediate future.

It's almost as if Boris and his team of Brexiteer morons said whatever they had to in order get the votes of useful idiots, then immediately ignored any promises they'd made to go back to shoveling money into their sponsors pockets. It worked with Brexit, it worked with the election that ended up "delivering" Brexit. Why change a winning formula, when the marks show such a willingness to continue to fall for it?

Mind you, Boris also said that "whatever the EU comes up with, we can match it and pass it into the law of this country” when it comes to employee rights. Which sounds a lot like following the laws of the EU, without having any say in writing them.

You know what, I'm willing to allow this as a genuine Brexit benefit; that the EU will write laws protecting workers, that the UK won't be able to veto, that will then come through as improvements to workers rights in the UK. There you go dribbles, I've found one for you. Mind you, it will only be a benefit if it actually happens, and that relies on the fact that Boris wasn't lying when he made that original statement, and that he (or his successor) will actually do it.

So let's call it a prospective Brexit benefit for now. It just relies on Boris telling the truth at some point in his life. Which let's face it, makes it fairly unlikely.

[dribbles]

He's referring to a by-election in a safe tory seat as an opinion poll on Brexit. Again.

The vote took place, but hardly in the context Dribbles is trying to imply it is.

What has a safe Tory seat got to do with it? The numbers are the numbers.

Presumably the people, that'd be the 0.2% of the electorate, that think Brexit is a shit-sandwich want to reverse it. The only way in our democracy is at by-elections to pressure the UK government of the day to hold another referendum. History tells us exactly at what percentage of the electorate that is likely to happen. At the by-election in Bexley in 2015 just before the EU in out referendum almost 15%, thousands and thousands of people, voted for the single issue Brexit party or UKIP as it was known at the time.

This was enough to force David Cameron to give the people that so wanted in/out EU referendum. 151, or 0.2% of the electorate, people voting for the single issue Rejoin EU party in last weeks vote, the mirror opposite of the Brexit party, provides no pressure on our Boris to re-run the 2016 referendum.

The reason only 151 people voted to rejoin EU is that the fantastic Brexit benefits are so obvious to all but a tiny tiny minority of the UK population there is no democratic desire to reverse Brexit anywhere.

I hope that has explained the workings of UK democracy for you. You may not like it but the legal systems surrounding that democracy and how it works are world beating and the best in Europe. The UK is still setting those global legal democratic standards and the EU now have no say in them.

UK law firms earn £29bn as legal services retain global appeal

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk...wwH73uWgeoIEu-

Even after Brexit...