Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Rasulis]

800,000 dead -- a grim milestone. We were doing pretty well from March to August.

A KFF study suggests about one in five deaths could have been prevented by vaccines. And we're still seeing over 1,000 deaths a day. In fact, we've been north of 1,000 deaths per day since mid-August, with the only exception being states not reporting over Thanksgiving.

Now as @Rasulis pointed out, vaccines plus boosters will lower your risk of getting the lethal affliction in the first place, and lower still your chance of dying if you still get it.

Everyone should be taking this seriously.

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According to a bunch of signs I saw recently, NYState did the same.

Yes. New York is earlier. Mask mandate started this Monday (12/13).

So how many people could have been saved from Delta if the US vaccination rate is as high as San Francisco? San Francisco Delta deaths between August and November 2021 is 99 or 11.2 per 100k. US Covid deaths during the same period around 187,000 or 57.4 per 100k. So around 150,000 less. Probably higher. Not too many places in the US can match the population density of San Francisco.

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New York is starting to get hit hard by omicron.

I 100% believed that omicron wouldn't spread fast enough to be driven by the winter surge, but I was dead wrong. It will probably dominate delta by the end of January, if not December. There is a slight possibility that omicron is only spreading as fast as it is because it's mutated so far out of our community resistance, so it's possible that once it's spread pretty well throughout that delta might shift back into control. If omicron proves to be more mild than delta, then we can hope that slight possibility doesn't pan out.

It is growing in the Bay Area also. We had 11 health workers for Oakland Kaiser hospitals that went together to the Wisconsin wedding. Five in Berkeley and Alameda. So far it has been infecting fully vaccinated/boosted people. All mild symptoms. No hospitalization. They finally detected the variant in Bay Area wastewater samples also. The location where omicron was detected will remain unspecified until the testing is definitive.

[PhaelixWW]

It is growing in the Bay Area also. We had 11 health workers for Oakland Kaiser hospitals that went together to the Wisconsin wedding.

It's hardly the same, though. Omicron is already over 13% of the samples sequenced in the NY/NJ region.

[Forogil]

It's hardly the same, though. Omicron is already over 13% of the samples sequenced in the NY/NJ region.

Based on how fast it grows in other places it might already have become dominant in NY/NJ and in the country as a whole before X-mas.
(Note that the numbers are weekly averages.)

[PhaelixWW]

Based on how fast it grows in other places it might already have become dominant in NY/NJ and in the country as a whole before X-mas.
(Note that the numbers are weekly averages.)

Probably not through the country as a whole, but certainly parts of the country, for sure. We'll likely see another surge the week after Christmas, for obvious reasons.

Frankly, I'm still a bit flabbergasted by how quickly it's spreading compared to previous variants.

[Forogil]

Just to add whilst removing patent might help initially you might face the same problem. Vaccines being made in terrible conditions with little care for quality and you end up with bad batches that further push the population to distrust the vaccine.

Too optimistic; just setting up the plants to make the vaccines would take months - so it wouldn't help initially.
AstraZeneca had severe problems with setting up their plants in Latin America (even more than in Europe) - and that was with the company helping.

And then there's regulatory issues - BioNTech (who developed the vaccine normally called 'Pfizer' or 'Pfizer/BioNTech') made a deal with Fosun to distribute/make that vaccine in China; it should be the same vaccine as in EU/US but it is still not approved in China.

However, that is for the new vaccines - and might not apply to more traditional vaccines that are made in other countries, especially China, since they might be easier to manufacture in developing countries and China has made such deals as part of their vaccine diplomacy.

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Probably not through the country as a whole, but certainly parts of the country, for sure. We'll likely see another surge the week after Christmas, for obvious reasons.

Frankly, I'm still a bit flabbergasted by how quickly it's spreading compared to previous variants.

Remember that the data you presented is about a week old (between Dec 5th and 11th).

[PhaelixWW]

Remember that the data you presented is about a week old (between Dec 5th and 11th).

I know, but about half of the US was still at <1% and some was at <0.1% for that period. And I'm willing to bet that it was still driven somewhat by Thanksgiving travel.

There's a bit of a lull (relatively speaking) for the first few weeks of December, before travel picks up again just before Christmas. That's why I'm expecting to see a larger surge right after Christmas.

[MCMLXXXII]

There is a small chance though that Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. All depends how serious the symptoms are, and IIRC it's too soon to tell. If the symptoms are mild, especially with the unvaccinated people, herd immunity can be achieved. But anyhow still better to get those booster shots.

[caractacus]

My older sister refused to get the vaccine until her job mandated it. And she’s not a stupid person that you’d typically associate with being anti-vaccine. She has a Master’s Degree and works in the government with computers and cyber security. She’s an educated, rational person, but she didn’t want to get it because of how bad the whole anthrax vaccine thing was for military members back in the day.

She just didn’t trust it.

It's actually a misconception that all vaccine hesitant people are stupid, fueled by the incessant need to group people by categories and labels so you get the out right anti-vaxxers who believe in 5g and microchips lumped in with the genuinely hesitant. There was a study done in the US that showed that if you take people by education level then the most vaccine hesitant group was people with PHD's (the highest group). Although it is true that it also showed vaccine hesitancy overall decreased by education it shows we shouldn't just presume that there isn't any nuance.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-...p-of-all-phds/

[Gaidax]

I don't know, the moment I hear the reasoning being "I don't trust it", I'm just shaking my head and moving on.

[Machismo]

It's actually a misconception that all vaccine hesitant people are stupid, fueled by the incessant need to group people by categories and labels so you get the out right anti-vaxxers who believe in 5g and microchips lumped in with the genuinely hesitant. There was a study done in the US that showed that if you take people by education level then the most vaccine hesitant group was people with PHD's (the highest group). Although it is true that it also showed vaccine hesitancy overall decreased by education it shows we shouldn't just presume that there isn't any nuance.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-...p-of-all-phds/

People with degrees can be complete morons.

In the end, even people with higher degrees are gullible, and susceptible to misinformation and confirmation bias.

The problem is that those people seem to be unable to actually address the data.

[Forogil]

It's actually a misconception that all vaccine hesitant people are stupid, fueled by the incessant need to group people by categories and labels so you get the out right anti-vaxxers who believe in 5g and microchips lumped in with the genuinely hesitant. There was a study done in the US that showed that if you take people by education level then the most vaccine hesitant group was people with PHD's (the highest group). Although it is true that it also showed vaccine hesitancy overall decreased by education it shows we shouldn't just presume that there isn't any nuance.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-...p-of-all-phds/

I would say that it's a misconception that everyone with a PhD is smart :-)

However, just looking at education in general the message is clear, https://www.economist.com/united-sta...gainst-the-jab

And looking more it seems that it is indeed fake news by looking at the actual study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....20.21260795v3

An incorrect result from the first version of this paper (about PhDs being the most reluctant to get vaccines, when really they are probably the least) is still being very widely shared on social media (I can see several instances on Twitter today alone). The error should be discussed explicitly, in more detail, not buried in a vague throwaway comment about some categories being 'higher'; not just so people reading it will understand it, but as an instructive lesson to other researchers about the perils of mischievous responders in surveys, particularly online ones.

TL: DR; using Facebook to make surveys is a stupid idea as people will troll you.

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Police raid in Dresden, Saxony, Germany, against terrorist plotting to kill the state leader - they seemed to have some form of weapon, unclear if firearm or crossbow:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-police...lot/a-60124553
Not saying that all anti-vaxxers are violent terrorists.

[caractacus]

I would say that it's a misconception that everyone with a PhD is smart :-)

However, just looking at education in general the message is clear, https://www.economist.com/united-sta...gainst-the-jab

And looking more it seems that it is indeed fake news by looking at the actual study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....20.21260795v3



TL: DR; using Facebook to make surveys is a stupid idea as people will troll you.

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Police raid in Dresden, Saxony, Germany, against terrorist plotting to kill the state leader - they seemed to have some form of weapon, unclear if firearm or crossbow:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-police...lot/a-60124553
Not saying that all anti-vaxxers are violent terrorists.

From looking at the updated paper, while phd's aren't among the most hesitant they don't appear to be the least either. I'm certainly not saying that all people with phd's are smart and I acknowledge that vaccine hesitancy decreases according to education level, generally. There does some to be outliers though. People have varrious reasons for hesitancy, some have had previous vaccination but are concerned about covid ones, some are worried about boosters and some are concerned for children. I don't think it's particularly smart to lump all these people in with the ardent anti vaxxers and I certainly don't think it's smart to assume they all have the same level of intelligence.

[Machismo]

From looking at the updated paper, while phd's aren't among the most hesitant they don't appear to be the least either. I'm certainly not saying that all people with phd's are smart and I acknowledge that vaccine hesitancy decreases according to education level, generally. There does some to be outliers though. People have varrious reasons for hesitancy, some have had previous vaccination but are concerned about covid ones, some are worried about boosters and some are concerned for children. I don't think it's particularly smart to lump all these people in with the ardent anti vaxxers and I certainly don't think it's smart to assume they all have the same level of intelligence.

Except, they are anti-vaxxers. They are simply the "concern" type. When pressed, they inevitably push the very same anti-vaxxer talking points.

You have three basic types of anti-vaxxers: First, you have the absolute trolls who do nothing but spam fake bullshit and memes. Second, you have the "intellectuals" who try to push "scientific" data that fails under the faintest of scrutiny. Thirdly, you have the "concerned" people who do nothing but ask question after question, most of which are easily answered with a cursory search, or that simply push one of the narratives wrangled by the other two types.

But, the one thing that they all seem to have in common, is that when they are pushed and scrutinized for their beliefs, they shitpost and dodge. They push lies, they push falsehoods, and they ignore the mountain of data that refutes their bullshit.

[Forogil]

Unless this study got it wrong Omicron is completely different (from Bloomberg): https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/othe...ays/ar-AARPZEa

Infects 70 times faster than delta, and but 10 times less in the lungs.

[Machismo]

Unless this study got it wrong Omicron is completely (from Bloomberg): https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/othe...ays/ar-AARPZEa

Infects 70 times faster than delta, and but 10 times less in the lungs.

My concern with any of the very early studies, is that sample sizes are often small, or they are going off a lot of incomplete data. Either that, or the testing and/or diagnosis quality is poor. Not only that, but deaths and their rates inevitably lag behind cases.

The perfect example of this was everyone who jumped on the "See only the vaccinated are getting it" bandwagon.

Now, the early indications are promising, but I'm still waiting at least 2-4 more weeks before I make any real assumptions.

[Daymanmb]

There is a small chance though that Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. All depends how serious the symptoms are, and IIRC it's too soon to tell. If the symptoms are mild, especially with the unvaccinated people, herd immunity can be achieved. But anyhow still better to get those booster shots.

Theres a very real concern though, that animal hosts, like the white tailed deer population, are going to act like reservoirs for the virus. This presents the opportunity for the virus to jump back and forth between them and us. So even if we gain herd immunity to the omicron variant, theres a good chance that this wont be the last mutation we see.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...lobal-pandemic

[Rasulis]

It's hardly the same, though. Omicron is already over 13% of the samples sequenced in the NY/NJ region.

That's pretty bad. Is their hospitalization getting bad also?

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There is a small chance though that Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. All depends how serious the symptoms are, and IIRC it's too soon to tell. If the symptoms are mild, especially with the unvaccinated people, herd immunity can be achieved. But anyhow still better to get those booster shots.

The data from South Africa seem to imply that is the case even for the unvaccinated. However, as I mentioned before, pre-Omicron, they estimated that 95% of South Africa population had been exposed to Covid. Therefore, the majority of the hospitalized patients are re-infection cases. Many are on their third Covid infection. Therefore, the unvaccinated population of South Africa had built a lot of immunity. Which kept the number of patients needing ventilator and mortality low. The majority of the hospitalized Covid patients in South Africa are also young. Although their obesity rate is high (WTH?).

How will that translate to the US and other western countries is something that we have to wait and see.

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Typical Fox News article.

California could learn from Colorado's Covid choice

Compare this to Colorado -- same virus, same human species -- where Governor Jared Polis just announced: "The emergency is over… Frankly, people who want to be protected [have gotten vaccinated]. Those who get sick, it's almost entirely their own darn fault."

No new mask mandate in response to another new variant. Rather, Polis said, "Our top goal is always to follow the science, and there was a time when there was no vaccine, and masks were all we had, and we needed to wear them. The truth is we now have highly effective vaccines that work far better than masks… You don’t tell people to wear a jacket when they go out in winter and force them to [wear it]. If they get frostbite, it’s their own darn fault."

Wow! Finally, a Democrat leader applying common sense and personal responsibility. He could not be more correct.

Americans should be free to take whatever measure they wish to stay healthy. Control their immunity through nutrition, exercise, and taking vitamins -- or not. Go out to restaurants or eat at home. Go to the movies or watch Netflix.

However, the article failed to mention this.

Facing a new flood of COVID patients, Colorado nurses say the stress is unsustainable

The COVID variant delta has overwhelmed the Colorado county of the same name. Hospitals on the Western Slope have been slammed for weeks, and the statewide picture is similarly grim. As of Monday, 1,294 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the state's coronavirus website. Half of the state's hospitals said they anticipated a staffing shortage in mid-December; more than a third of them anticipated ICU bed shortages at the same time.

And behind those numbers, patients — and health care workers — are feeling the impact.

Burch's doctor told him he might have to wait hours in the ER, perhaps with people who have flu or COVID-19 symptoms. So Burch stayed home.

California does not have that problem and we would rather not have that problem. Personally, I don't care if somebody does not want to get vaccinated. However, I do care that their carcasses are clogging the hospitals and overwhelming the health care system. Please consider the fact that your bad choices in life do impact other people.

[Forogil]

That's pretty bad. Is their hospitalization getting bad also?

Not yet, https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...urges/3451663/

But it may take for serious cases to develop, many at University are young, etc. Or maybe it is mild enough.

[Orange Joe]

It's actually a misconception that all vaccine hesitant people are stupid, fueled by the incessant need to group people by categories and labels so you get the out right anti-vaxxers who believe in 5g and microchips lumped in with the genuinely hesitant. There was a study done in the US that showed that if you take people by education level then the most vaccine hesitant group was people with PHD's (the highest group). Although it is true that it also showed vaccine hesitancy overall decreased by education it shows we shouldn't just presume that there isn't any nuance.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-...p-of-all-phds/

Everyone is just a arts/social grad until they need them to be something else.

[PhaelixWW]

Theres a very real concern though, that animal hosts, like the white tailed deer population, are going to act like reservoirs for the virus. This presents the opportunity for the virus to jump back and forth between them and us. So even if we gain herd immunity to the omicron variant, theres a good chance that this wont be the last mutation we see.

Herd immunity has not been possible for a long time. This will go endemic instead.

That's pretty bad. Is their hospitalization getting bad also?

Yes. Compare California's new hospitalization rate with New York's.








Many of the Midwest and Northeast states are even worse in terms of hospitalizations, however, as they are also being hit with delta surges at the same time.