Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

I knew Ukraine was a pretty big country geographically, and I was aware of the cultural overlap between it and Russia, but I didn't know there were 40+ million people living in it. This is a big juicy country that will make Putin significantly richer and get him quite a bit closer to the EU. If there was ever a time for Biden to put the diplomatic acumen he ran on to use.

The more likely number is somewhere between 27 and 33 millions; millions of people left since it had 40+ - last census was in 2001, and things went quite downhill from there.

[Shalcker]

Ikr? They were invaded by Russia and have another potential invasion looming.

They also managed to drop to second poorest nation in Europe (only ahead of Moldova) - before 2014. Mismanagement and looting of various enterprises was rampant - it was like Russia that never went out of 90's.

So lots of Ukrainians went to Russia (and a few millions less to EU - even with visa-free travel).

[Ulmita]

I do think Biden fucked it up with whole "minor incursion" thing, but ultimately it does not change anything. It's not like Russia was "maybe not do it" and after that silly remark "holy shit we got a go bois".

Though it does show, as I suspected, that US/EU will close eyes on relatively small breach such as propping/reinforcing of so-called "People's Republics" within existing areas of influence. But then anyone with half a brain could figure that one out, really.

I also really really don't think Russia will go tanks rolling into Kiev, it's kind of pointless. What they might do is yet another unmarked operation to take something like Mariupol ("the separatists did it, we have nothing to do with it honest" kind), which is for all intents and purposes an invasion, but small enough to trigger weak response.

US can't just sanction away. Russia isn't Iran, and they certainly don't want Russia to retaliate, so he has to pick his words wisely. Can you imagine a rogue Russia?

[YUPPIE]

US can't just sanction away. Russia isn't Iran, and they certainly don't want Russia to retaliate, so he has to pick his words wisely. Can you imagine a rogue Russia?

0) Sanction them to oblivion if not declaring war.

1) that is expressing weakness. America champions democracy as a superpower. Anything less and we will live in a world run by the likes of Jinpig and Putin.

2) "A rogue Russia." We have nukes.

[Machismo]

0) Sanction them to oblivion if not declaring war.

1) that is expressing weakness. America champions democracy as a superpower. Anything less and we will live in a world run by the likes of Jinpig and Putin.

2) "A rogue Russia." We have nukes.

Then, why do you support Russia invading Ukraine, and taking it over to be absorbed into the new USSR under Putin?

[Gaidax]

US can't just sanction away. Russia isn't Iran, and they certainly don't want Russia to retaliate, so he has to pick his words wisely. Can you imagine a rogue Russia?

While I agree and repeatedly point out to various people here that actually and effectively sanctioning Russia is a very very difficult proposition. And more often than not responses are very limited because EU countries just can't afford to bullshit too much and that's where "unified front" flags in action.

The reverse is also true. Russia of today is not USSR of 40 years ago and neither it is North Korea. It's not really as self-sufficient as it might want to present itself and ultimately it needs partners who are not just China and a bunch of rogue states. It has many critical joint ventures with the West and things won't be pushed as far as going full iron curtain style cold war confrontation.

So, no Russia won't really go rogue either. That's why there is this whole dancing and beating around the bush. If it'd be USSR - they'd already swallow something like Ukraine and not even burp, but for the smaller and weaker Russia it's a more complex game of risks vs rewards in the end.

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0) Sanction them to oblivion if not declaring war.

Delirious blathering, plain and simple.

[YUPPIE]

Newsflash, Russia has nukes too.

so we're going to just let them take and murder anything and anyone they like short of directly attacking the US because of that?

[Edge-]

so we're

What is this "we" stuff, I thought you were gonna sign up to fight for democracy?

[Orange Joe]

trump is 75 and always pissed looking and yelling

looked pretty old to me when he could barely walk down a slight decline.

[Gaidax]

People involving "nukes" as some sort of realistic action item are cute.

Everyone knows what the costs will be if it gets there, that's why it will never get to that.

It's simply a non-starter proposition.

[Edge-]

looked pretty old to me when he could barely walk down a slight decline.

Remember that time he had to ride a golf cart a few hundred meters while every other world leader just like...walked on their own two legs?

[YUPPIE]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

[Edge-]

What do you people want, exactly then?

For you to stop posting fanfictions about war and mass murder?

[YUPPIE]

For you to stop posting fanfictions about war and mass murder?

but this is reality now. Russia is about to invade Ukraine and thus start another world war when China feels emboldened to finally annex Taiwan as well. It's not fiction or hypothetical anymore. Every day I tune into world news and its an escalation of all-out battle. They're taking back their embassies/agents in Ukraine, moving out warships from other regions, increasing presence at the border, unresponsive to talks, making threats.

This is not just saber rattling anymore like in 2019

[Fuiking]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

Stop dreaming about ww3 please. its just postering from the Russians because they feel super threatened by the NAVO... somewhat like how people vote for trump and other far right and extreme parties across the world: they cant keep up.

[Gaidax]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

But they don't... and hence the pickle.

You really need to drink a glass of water and chillax. WWIII ain't happening tomorrow.

[Mihalik]

What do you people want, exactly then? If Russia invades Ukraine, kills everyone and takes over and it culminates in Putin giving the finger to the West on TV, we don't sanction them or fight. Then what?

There are about 8 million steps from "invade" to "kill everyone".

If Russia does in fact invade Ukraine, it needs to be immediately kicked off SWIFT as step 1.

From there on, Ukraine must be provided with emergency financial aid and armaments and munitions from Eastern NATO countries that have stockpiles of gear compatible with that used by Ukraine.

Further steps must involve strategic embargoes against Russia.

Measures to cut them off from the internet (tho this should begin in tandem with the SWIFT kick).

And as a final step Ukraine should be provided with intelligence and guided munitions such as surface to surface and surface to air missiles.

The US must also leverage the living fuck out of OPEC and must make gas and US fuel reserves available at cost or below to European countries to allow them actually stop buying Russian gas for a while.

[PC2]

so we're going to just let them take and murder anything and anyone they like short of directly attacking the US because of that?

It's only murder if they don't care about killing civilians and minimizing collateral damage. Military personnel or combatants consent to violence so that's not really murder. Russia just wants power and not to kill a bunch of Ukrainians.

[YUPPIE]

If Russia does in fact invade Ukraine, it needs to be immediately kicked off SWIFT as step 1.

Further steps must involve strategic embargoes against Russia.

Measures to cut them off from the internet (tho this should begin in tandem with the SWIFT kick).

And as a final step Ukraine should be provided with intelligence and guided munitions such as surface to surface and surface to air missiles.

biden said he is thinking removing Russia from SWIFT to be a "bad idea"

[Gaidax]

If Russia does in fact invade Ukraine, it needs to be immediately kicked off SWIFT as step 1.

SWIFT is a private organization that absolutely does not fancy kicking off players, simply because it's a credibility hit and expedites the creation of alternatives. Double so in case of Russia.

It won't "step 1". Get real.