Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[unfilteredJW]

- - - Updated - - -


Sadly, Joe Rogan wins.

That was going to happen.

Though I appreciate Young taking a stand and I wish more people would use what powers they have as consumers and artists to take a stand against someone who platforms misinformation of, well, pretty much everything.

[Breccia]

I didn't expect that they would take Neil's side in this

Probably not, no. It is interesting that Spotify has decided that Joe Rogan's misinformation is worth defending. I suppose this means there's something in the contract which says you can't sue Spotify for something someone on Spotify says.

[Corvus]

I've been a fan of Neil's for a long time. More so now. And his stand does come at financial cost to him as well - spotify made up 60% of his music streaming.

I'm not subscribed to spotify but if I was I would be cancelling.

[postman1782]

I don't think it has been mentioned yet, and I still haven't figured out why people listen to Joe Rogan.

Because he is just as dumb as the people that listen to him.

[Rasulis]

A couple of comments about the change in Covid policy in San Francisco.

The first thing is that Grant Colfax is not a politician. The Director of SF Department of Health is an appointed, and not an elected position. When it comes to public health issues in San Francisco, he has the ultimate authority. Higher than the mayor and council.

The decision was not made in vacuum. It was based on real life data from San Francisco hospitals and had the backing of doctors from UCSF and Zuckerberg General Hospital. Despite the insane case numbers, the mortality rate of Omicron in San Francisco is less than one-third that of Delta. The peak is much lower, and the duration of the surge is shorter.




Unfortunately, it does not seem like that is universal throughout the US.

Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta's Peak

[PhaelixWW]

the mortality rate of Omicron in San Francisco is less than one-third that of Delta. The peak is much lower, and the duration of the surge is shorter.

The omicron death surge is still ongoing. I'd be leery about making definitive statements for at least another few weeks to a month.

[Zantos]

I can understand your plight, but that is simply not realistic.

Shutting down the entire world is a non-starter, and with the virus infecting animals it is simply not enough (there's some suspicion that Omicron developed and then spread back from some animals).

That's why most countries are starting to move away from the pandemic restrictions, based on recommendations from science advisors.

That means most countries are stupid. Second, I think you may have some odd information. Most research I have seen has only said covid can spread, Possibly, among animals of the same species with little to no indication that covid can be spread from an animal to humans.

As unrealistic as it may seem, it might Have to happen. If covid mutates to be more deadly, it would literally be either lock down hard, or go extinct. That is the issue we are facing with this thing. This virus is mutating quickly and could prove to be an apocalyptic event. Which is what I am worried about, other then the fact that it is more risky for me to catch it then others.

[PhaelixWW]

If covid mutates to be more deadly, it would literally be either lock down hard, or go extinct. That is the issue we are facing with this thing. This virus is mutating quickly and could prove to be an apocalyptic event.

That's a stretch and a half.

There's a reason why SARS and MERS were stopped while COVID was not, and it's largely because they're more deadly.

[Forogil]

While that's true do we have any reason to suspect it will be different for Covid?

No, it seems the common belief is that covid-19 will be somewhere between the flu and common cold viruses (the latter already contain some corona-viruses) in terms of severity. And that everyone will be infected a few times while growing up (when it is less deadly) and thus have some natural immunity later in life, and the virus will also get milder in itself.

But it's not 100% certain yet. And there is also the rosy scenario that it just disappears.

As you mentioned more countries are moving towards lifting restrictions. Denmark just announced that all restrictions will be lifted at the start of February. That's despite them estimating that we haven't reached the peak of daily infections yet. It seems like the science advisors do not share this fear of Covid mutating into something horrible.

They don't "fear" it - but I'm sure they see it as a possibility, although unlikely.

- - - Updated - - -

That means most countries are stupid. Second, I think you may have some odd information. Most research I have seen has only said covid can spread, Possibly, among animals of the same species with little to no indication that covid can be spread from an animal to humans.

They are science advisors with medical degrees, and in multiple countries, coming to similar conclusions.

And Omicron developing in animals (like rats) is one of the two or three main possibilities for it.
There are several documented cases of covid spreading from minks to humans, so it certainly can happen.

However, the risk is generally low - because of how you interact with animals. If your pet is infected it is likely because you were infected, so the pet cannot infect you more. And you are normally not in sneezing distance of wild mammals (and many wild animals don't live as crowded as humans), but if a new variant develops among wild animals it only takes one case for it to become a problem among humans.

- - - Updated - - -

That's a stretch and a half.

There's a reason why SARS and MERS were stopped while COVID was not, and it's largely because they're more deadly.

And related to that they are also more consistently severe, so people who were infected didn't think it was a light cold and go on with their life while spreading the disease. MERS also doesn't spread well between humans (it is still circulating among camels), while SARS spreads as well as early covid-19 strains.

[Zantos]

They are science advisors with medical degrees, and in multiple countries, coming to similar conclusions.

And Omicron developing in animals (like rats) is one of the two or three main possibilities for it.
There are several documented cases of covid spreading from minks to humans, so it certainly can happen.

However, the risk is generally low - because of how you interact with animals. If your pet is infected it is likely because you were infected, so the pet cannot infect you more. And you are normally not in sneezing distance of wild mammals (and many wild animals don't live as crowded as humans), but if a new variant develops among wild animals it only takes one case for it to become a problem among humans.

But again, the risk of transmission from an animal to people is low. Most pets who get it have it from their owners who already had it. With, as you say, most wild animals not getting nearly close enough to humans to spread it. Its seeming Very low that it could, if at all, spread from an animal to humans. Minks are an exception in this case, but most people are not near them. That is why it shouldn't be a deciding factor since most animals cannot easily spread it to a human.

- - - Updated - - -

That's a stretch and a half.

There's a reason why SARS and MERS were stopped while COVID was not, and it's largely because they're more deadly.

SARS was also easily (almost wasn't mind you) stopped due to it spreading under very different circumstances. One of the biggest differences was the fact that SARS rarely spread from those who were asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. So helping to stop it was made an easier task due to someone needing to be obviously, visibly sick. It was also said to be less transmissible then Covid. MERS was much the same. Obviously sick people being the main spreader, unlike now.

So no, not a huge stretch since neither one of those are comparable to how easily spread Covid is. Them being more deadly helped a bit, but was not the main cause for them being halted. They were much different then covid and MERS has actually had a few outbreaks, with the most recent one being in 2018 in Saudi Arabia.

[Tuor]

Got my booster shot today.

[Gaidax]

4th Corona shots opened up for 18+ pop, just set my appointment in app

[Forogil]

But again, the risk of transmission from an animal to people is low. Most pets who get it have it from their owners who already had it. With, as you say, most wild animals not getting nearly close enough to humans to spread it. Its seeming Very low that it could, if at all, spread from an animal to humans. Minks are an exception in this case, but most people are not near them. That is why it shouldn't be a deciding factor since most animals cannot easily spread it to a human.

It depends on what we consider the risk for.

The risk that any specific individual gets infected with covid from an animal is low - or very low; so compared to the risk of getting infected by other humans it is not something to worry about (unless you have a mink-farm).

The risk that some individual gets infected with covid from an animal is practically 100%. That means that even if we by some miraculous effort eradicated covid among humans it would almost certainly jump back from animals. That means the idea is locking down society to eradicate covid not only is impossible to implement, but even if implemented wouldn't work.

As an example consider MERS that spread readily among animals and sometimes make the jump to humans.

So no, not a huge stretch since neither one of those are comparable to how easily spread Covid is. Them being more deadly helped a bit, but was not the main cause for them being halted. They were much different then covid and MERS has actually had a few outbreaks, with the most recent one being in 2018 in Saudi Arabia.

MERS doesn't seem to spread well between humans, it seems that in the general human population R is below 1 (but significantly above zero perhaps around 0.5). In camels R>1 and 90% of camels seem to have been infected.

What happens is that many (dromedary) camels are infected, and then the camels infect some individuals, and they might infect a few more in the general population. They get sick, and they are then more likely to infect health care workers. As soon as the outbreak is noticed the health care workers take more care - (and possibly some others take more care as well) and the outbreak fades away.
Exactly how camels infect humans isn't clear - obviously saliva, but possibly also unpasteurized milk (especially if you get it directly from the source) - and possibly even camel meat.

Obviously it could mutate into something that spreads more.

- - - Updated - - -

Got my booster shot today.

Good - the more that get them the better! I got mine two weeks ago.

[PhaelixWW]

SARS was also easily (almost wasn't mind you) stopped due to it spreading under very different circumstances. One of the biggest differences was the fact that SARS rarely spread from those who were asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. So helping to stop it was made an easier task due to someone needing to be obviously, visibly sick. It was also said to be less transmissible then Covid. MERS was much the same. Obviously sick people being the main spreader, unlike now.

That's due in large part to the fact that those two were more deadly viruses. I thought that was understood in my response. The more deadly a virus, the fewer asymptomatic cases there are. That's the whole point.

So no, not a huge stretch since neither one of those are comparable to how easily spread Covid is.

More deadly viruses won't be as asymptomatic, and thus won't spread as easily. So yeah, it's a huge stretch.

Them being more deadly helped a bit, but was not the main cause for them being halted. They were much different then covid and MERS has actually had a few outbreaks, with the most recent one being in 2018 in Saudi Arabia.

As far as I know, that's because MERS still circulates in camels and occasionally you get a zoonotic transmission. Once the virus is in humans, it's generally easily stopped.

[Rasulis]

An interesting difference between Delta and Omicron in San Francisco. Delta had somewhat an even distribution of infections throughout the city. Omicron followed the more traditional flu distribution with the virus hitting hardest in neighborhoods with high concentrations of low-income populations and densest neighborhoods. Bayview Hunters Point has the highest number of recorded infections (3860) and a rate of 1018 infections per 10,000 residents. It had some of the lowest numbers during Delta. Of seventeen neighborhoods with rates in excess of 500 per 10,000 residents, 15 are in the east and southeast. Where you have all the high rises and SROs. The numbers decline as you go west toward the Pacific. Makes sense. As far as I know there are no SROs in Sunset and Richmond. Interestingly, Chinatown which has a LOT of SROs has the lowest case per capita of 295.

COVID-19 case maps

[rayvio]

Omicron has fast become the dominant strain and is less severe to most (the people who get hit hard may be the minority but it's still a massive number) people. sadly this means so many people aren't taking it as seriously any more despite the past couple of years proving just how quickly and easily this virus can mutate into something vastly different. I can understand wanting to be rid of masks and wanting to be free to mix with friends and everything... but wanting it to be safe isn't the same as it being safe. we've made progress against the virus, despite the best attempts of some idiots (some of whom are well meaning but very badly informed and some of whom know exactly what they're doing but prioritise a comparably small profit over human lives) but it's by no means beaten and relaxing measures too much now is just going to set us right back to square one, or very close to

ideally we should be sharing vaccines with the countries that don't have enough, encouraging people who haven't accepted a vaccine to do so and continuing to have a mask mandate and enforce it! in the UK it hardly mattered that masks were, briefly, a legal requirement again since the policy was never enforced and most shop workers and bus drivers aren't paid enough or trained to deal with people refusing the wear them
but that's not going to happen unless the situation changes to force it to. by which time it'll probably be too late
it's not going to be bad enough to wipe out the human race, but it can get to the point where a full lockdown becomes unavoidable and all the economical turmoil that goes with that... just because we don't want to cope with the mild discomfort of occasionally wearing a mask

[Zantos]

More deadly viruses won't be as asymptomatic, and thus won't spread as easily. So yeah, it's a huge stretch.

Not exactly how those two worked. As a whole, they didn't have the same Ability to spread as covid. Its not just a "they wont spread from asymptomatic because more deadly". They were not as transmissible as covid. That is why its not a huge stretch. Covid is more transmissible then they were by its makeup alone. Its evolved to have a higher R(0) then sars had. Even you have noted that its transmissible is second only to measles in some cases. Its also able to be spread asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic more easily. Its gone down a completely different evolutionary path than SARS or MERS did.

That though, is also ignoring the fact that SARS was very nearly not stopped. It almost became a pandemic.

[Edge-]

I love anti-vaxxers and am constantly in awe that their autonomic systems remain functional, because otherwise I honestly worry that they'd forget to breathe.

[PhaelixWW]

Not exactly how those two worked. As a whole, they didn't have the same Ability to spread as covid. Its not just a "they wont spread from asymptomatic because more deadly". They were not as transmissible as covid.

You're misunderstanding the concept of "transmissibility". The effective reproduction number takes into account a number of variables, one of which is how likely someone is to notice that they have the virus and take measures to get help and therefore stop their ability to infect others. Viruses with a higher IFR, which are therefore less asymptomatic, are also therefore less easy to "miss", meaning that infected people tend to get help and be isolated before they can infect others, reducing the R_eff of the virus.

That's how it works.

Also, SARS had a higher R₀ than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. The only reason COVID is more transmissible now is because it survived in circulation long enough to mutate into a more virulent strain. And that didn't really happen until delta, which was a year after we were already in a pandemic. Even alpha had a lower R₀ than SARS.

That is why its not a huge stretch. Covid is more transmissible then they were by its makeup alone. Its evolved to have a higher R(0) then sars had. Even you have noted that its transmissible is second only to measles in some cases. Its also able to be spread asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic more easily.

Again, it only spreads as easily as it does because of the high number of asymptomatic and lightly symptomatic cases. That's the point. If COVID mutated to be much more severe, in even the SARS range, then those asymptomatic and lightly symptomatic cases would all but disappear, as everyone would be adversely affected by the strength of the resultant disease. That would actually make the virus less transmissible by its very nature.

I don't think you're really getting that those things are inextricably linked.

Its gone down a completely different evolutionary path than SARS or MERS did.

Yes, specifically because it is less deadly/symptomatic.

That though, is also ignoring the fact that SARS was very nearly not stopped. It almost became a pandemic.

That's not really how it works. SARS making it to pandemic level would have had more to do with people not taking it seriously enough. At some point, though, they would have started taking it seriously, and it would have been stopped. It was too lethal to be ignored and too symptomatic to be routinely missed.

[jonnysensible]

I love anti-vaxxers and am constantly in awe that their autonomic systems remain functional, because otherwise I honestly worry that they'd forget to breathe.

hes had the vaccine. One of those tories who is trying to kill as many followers as possible.