Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Belize]

Putin "willing to consider halting attacks on civilians". What a bro.

Wait, I thought he said civilians weren't being attacked

[Barzotti]

How many troops do they potentially have to still throw in? IIRC they had ~175.000 deployed near the border, but surely that's only a fraction of the Russian army?

Also, isn't there the chance of them becoming more ruthless if the campaign doesn't go well?

Regardless of how true or false the statement from the US official is:

- not everyone on the army is a soldier prepared to fight
- some troops have to stay on the Russian soil to protect the public order (such as Rosgvardiya) or are already deployed on another fronts
- some of them must be very far from the Ukrainian front, making it difficult to relocate them
- given how poorly the Russian logistics has been on this whole operation while said operation was planned, it must be very difficult for them to prepare the logistics, the refueling, the food... for the newcomers.

[Makabreska]

I'm no expert. But I think the times where the Rank and File believed in whatever attack are long gone, anyway. I think the last time that might have actually been the case was WW2.

Dunno man, I'm pretty sure Americans were itching to go into Iraq for obvious reasons.

[Poopymonster]

Senior U.S. defense official: Russia sent roughly 75 percent of troops arrayed on Ukraine's border into the country.

Confirms why there's no Second or Third Echelons, aka why their support convoys are vulnerable.

People posting that "They only Sent 30%" ...

There's a bit of unrest in the cities. Protesters. Some of the military will be waiting to deal with them. For their own good of course.

[Gorsameth]

I'm just saying that while I really applaud Germany putting their big boy boots on, Ukraine might fall by the time diplomacy plays out.

As an afterthough, obviously that would not be on Germany alone.

Whether or not Ukraine holds out is realistically a secondary concern to Europe. If we wanted Ukraine to hold out we should have done more before this happened, considering intelligence had been aware of the invasion for some time prior.

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Dunno man, I'm pretty sure Americans were itching to go into Iraq for obvious reasons.

The Russian army also didn't have the issue in Syria.

As I said before there is a big difference between fighting someone culturally different who you can't even communicate with half the world away and fighting your neighbour.

The American rank and file would be a similarly hesitant if they were to invade Canada tomorrow.

[Milchshake]

How many troops do they potentially have to still throw in? IIRC they had ~175.000 deployed near the border, but surely that's only a fraction of the Russian army?

Also, isn't there the chance of them becoming more ruthless if the campaign doesn't go well?

There's definitely a chance of Putin pushing for more ruthless tactics, like more intense artillery and carpet bombing. Then there's the looming question of limited munitions.
Then there's the question is Putin willing to push the use unconventional munitions...

[George]

Wait, I thought he said civilians weren't being attacked

They are kind of not attacking civilians, except oopsies like carpet shelling residential areas.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/n27e86r49ZI

[ParanoiD84]

Not going so well for Russia it seems. I just feel sorry for all the dead kids who had no choice in the matter.

I keep saying the same the soldiers have no say in this and just follows orders as military service is mandatory in russia. It's the leaders who are fucked.

Pretty safe to say putin and leadership thought this was going to be a quick win and really underestimated the ukranian resistance.

Ukranian president is funny as hell too and he used to be a comedian and actor before being president here is a good clip lol.

[Biglog]

Talks for today have ended and more are planned, but the delegations are returning to their capitals for now. It's kind of the last ditch chance for peace and for a way out for Russia. The worry is that Russia will use darker tactics on civilian areas as some sort of negotiating threat. Cluster munitions were used on a civilian area of Kharkhiv today literally as the negotiations were taking place. I have a feeling that approach will have the opposite effect though of hardening resolve even further.

One big issue is that Russia can't really offer a security guarantee since it burned that bridge after lying about border troop buildup being exercises, saying that troops were being moved back to bases, continuing negotiations after the invasion had already been ordered, etc. So from Ukraine's perspective Russia can only offer a cease-fire. If there's a very remote chance for a deal it would probably be something like Ukraine formally gives up claims on Crimea and DNR/LNR to Russia, Ukraine cancels it's NATO application, Russia withdraws all forces, and then removal of sanctions. I would fully expect Russia to be back someday and for any peace to be paper thin. But at least it would back the world from the brink and give cooler heads at the Kremlin time to rethink this idea of military expansion.

[Makabreska]

FIFA kicking out every Russian team from international games, according to Reuters.

[ParanoiD84]

FIFA kicking out every Russian team from international games, according to Reuters.

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

[Shadowferal]

Ukrainian defenders who told Russian warship to 'Go f--- yourself' survived

The Ukrainian border guards who defended the country's Snake Island against a Russian warship, telling the Russians on the craft to "go f--- yourself," are still alive, according to Ukrainian military officials.

The Ukrainian Navy on Monday confirmed that the border guards are "alive and well," but were forced to surrender to Russian forces due to a lack of ammunition.

It was reported last week that the border guards defending Snake Island, or Zmiinyi Island, had been killed after a Russian warship bombed it. After telling the guards to surrender or risk being killed, the soldiers could be heard responding, "Russian warship, go f--- yourself."

"We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well with them! But Russian propaganda tries to twist the 'news' about the fact that the Ukrainian authorities 'forgotten', 'buried' their fellows," said Ukraine's Navy.

[Edge-]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

It's not, but they're competing on behalf of their nation. It's like when the Olympics banned Russian athletes for a massive state-sponsored doping scandal...and then just let them compete anyways, just not under the Russian flag.

It sucks for anyone not cheating and shit but like, the shitty actions of a country have a lot of downstream impacts.

[George]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

No other team in the next matches want to play them.

[Makabreska]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

Unfortunately, the time to think about Russian players/normal citizens has past long time ago. Situation is so fucked up and serious that pressure and bans on every possible front are needed. You wont hit hard if you try to spare Russians not participating in the conflict.

[Swnem]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

Oh, are you gonna tell the players from other teams to go into Russia under these conditions? Flights are banned.

How about you feel sorry for the Ukranian ones instead? They were forced. Russia has a choice.

[George]

Ukrainian defenders who told Russian warship to 'Go f--- yourself' survived

The Ukrainian border guards who defended the country's Snake Island against a Russian warship, telling the Russians on the craft to "go f--- yourself," are still alive, according to Ukrainian military officials.

The Ukrainian Navy on Monday confirmed that the border guards are "alive and well," but were forced to surrender to Russian forces due to a lack of ammunition.

It was reported last week that the border guards defending Snake Island, or Zmiinyi Island, had been killed after a Russian warship bombed it. After telling the guards to surrender or risk being killed, the soldiers could be heard responding, "Russian warship, go f--- yourself."

"We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well with them! But Russian propaganda tries to twist the 'news' about the fact that the Ukrainian authorities 'forgotten', 'buried' their fellows," said Ukraine's Navy.

Great, so arguably the first big news at the beginning of the invasion was actually fake.

[Biglog]

Early word is that the negotiations didn't go great. Then Ukraine formally applied for EU membership today, and Erdogan announced that he is implementing the Montreux convention power which likely means closing the strait to Russian naval vessels. This is the first time it has ever been put into effect since it was signed in 1937. Not very good signs for a peace deal unfortunately.

[Endus]

Not sure how i feel about that it's not the players fault but whatever i guess.

The team represents the nation, not the individual players. If those players want to go play for any other country, they'd almost certainly be welcomed.

[Mihalik]

So here's my 2 cents after I got banned for flaming Putin fan boys.

A lot of people here who weren't and aren't necessarily pro-Russian but more armchair generals, international policy and Russia and Ukraine experts have predicted on the first days of the invasion on how the Russian will inevitably steamroll the Ukrainians, how Kiev will fall, how there will be no civilian resistance, how the Russian can easily occupy the country, especially the east by co-opting local police forces and whatnot, how the Europeans will never impose harsher sanctions, how the Germans will block any attempt to use the "nuclear" option of cutting off Russia from SWIFT, how Putin will not be sanctioned, how Russian assets won't be seized etc.

Yet here we are.

I understand the notion of preparing for the worst, and broadly I agree that the Russians can still beat the Ukrainians in the field...eventually.

But this has clearly escalated way past what Putin thought it would cost him and occupation will probably cost him more than he can literally afford, nor is a puppet regime any way viable without a massive occupation force and yes the Ukrainian people are fully willing to do mass protracted insurgency.

Even I didn't think the civilian resistance will be as fierce as it turned out to be.

The Russian invasion today resembles more a Mongol raid than an invasion or occupation. Huge Russian columns operating deep inside Ukraine, they are attacking population centers and can win most conventional engagements, but they have absolutely no support among the locals, their logistical lines are contested the moment their main forces move past them, any objectives they take seem to revert to Ukrainian control the moment they most past etc.

The main strategic objective of the Russians right now seems to be little esle than "Kill Zelensky" because frankly an occupation or a puppet government looks like a non starter.

Here we are almost a week into this "invasion" and the Russians are still almost exclusively just fighting the Ukrainian conventional military, which everyone, myself included really expected to have either long folded or been overwhelmed.

I mean for fuck sake.... The Ukrainian Airforce is still flying. How the fuck did that happen? What degree of epic fail had to happen on the Russian side for that to come about?

Again. I fully expect the Russian military to have its "Mission Accomplished" moment, eventually if they throw enough stuff at Ukraine. But that will sure as shit won't be any kind of victory.