Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

And staging a landing at Odessa? That sounds like another example of how not to do things.

They've had amphibious ships near Odesa for months now, predating the actual invasion. From the same article I linked in my last post:

Russian ships are shelling targets in the suburbs of Odesa as naval activity ticks up in the Black Sea, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

“We do see increased naval activity in the northern Black Sea,” a senior defense official told reporters on Wednesday.
We also have observed on our own the shelling of some town outside of Odessa near Odessa, but not in Odessa. We believe these are… from Russian warships in the Black Sea.

The official did not say if the shelling was a precursor to an amphibious landing near the port city.

“It could be that they are preparing the way for some sort of ground assault on Odesa,” the official said.
“We would not see them surprised in taking Odesa given its strategic location.”

The shelling follows a Tuesday mobilization of Russian amphibious warships off the coast of Odesa in the Black Sea that ultimately turned back to their staging area near Crimea.

Fourteen Russian ships were seen operating in off the southern coast of Ukraine, according to open-source analysts H I Sutton and Damien Symon earlier tracked a Russian amphibious assault group and two surface combatants operating near the coast of Odesa in the Black Sea.

“Two [groups] are made up of combatants, and one has several landing ships. The landing ships appear to have sailed directly from their staging position off the Crimean coast,” they wrote in Naval News.

In total, the pair saw 14 ships, led by a Russian minesweeper, approach the coast off Odesa and then turn back toward Crimea. Pentagon officials confirmed the basic details on Wednesday.

In late February, thousands of Russian troops landed on the Sea of Azov coast without resistance as part of the ongoing Mariupol siege. They have not yet made an amphibious landing in the Black Sea.

The Kremlin has moved six amphibious landing ships into the Black Sea since the start of the year to join landing ships that were already part of the Black Sea fleet.

These include three Ropucha-class tank landing ships, which are capable of landing 10 main battle tanks and 350 troops ashore. The larger Ivan Gren-class, also in the Black Sea, can move 13 main battle tanks and 300 troops while also fielding two attack helicopters.

According to notices to mariners, the sea approaches to Odessa and surrounding beaches are heavily mined, which would complicate a landing.

Russian amphibious forces aren’t skilled at contested amphibious landings and would need an uncontested beach to deploy vehicles and naval infantry.

- - - Updated - - -

Well this doesn't bode well for those protestors...

CNN: Putin calls pro-Western Russians "national traitors"

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has clamped down on any dissent since the invasion of Ukraine, on Wednesday blasted pro-Western Russians by calling them “national traitors” in a televised address.

“The West will try to rely on the so-called fifth column, on national traitors, on those who earn money here with us but live there. And I mean ‘live there’ not even in the geographical sense of the word, but according to their thoughts, their slavish consciousness,” Putin said.

These people "cannot live without oysters and gender freedom," he added.

[Celista]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CasNv5FAA-k/
Audio frankly has to be heard to be believed.

Lol he is so full of shit. His buddy holding the phone sounds rather bored of him.

[Corvus]

Russia's inflation rate has surpassed its annual target in just 2 weeks. Oops.

The UK's MoD report hasn't really changed much - Russia is still largely stalled, making minimal progress and taking heavy losses.

[draynay]

Russia has been losing battles by broadcasting in the clear for as long as radios have existed.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

So, who is gonna give up their long-range AA? Slovakia is pretty much the only option for S-300.

Doesn't Greece have some?

- - - Updated - - -

Japan has spotted 4 Russian amphibious ships heading towards Europe.

Per CNN:


Per The Guardian:


Is Odesa next?

Would the Turks let those pass the Bosphorus?

By the way, I'm wondering if at some point Erdogan would try using this opportunity to get rid of his contentious S-400, and get back on the Patriot & F-35 bandwagon.

[Magical Mudcrab]

I wonder why. Easo keeps saying that Russian "accidents" and such are only memes, nothing real. What are those fleeing so afraid of? Everyone has been assured they are completely fine and safe.

You need to stop with those lies, OK? When those people cut themselves into pieces, put those pieces into plastic bags, load those plastic bags into luggage bags, padlock those bags, and throw them into rivers, the obvious cause is suicide. The amount of ignorance people show by stating otherwise is astounding.

- - - Updated - - -

Do you have a red line where you grow as spine about stopping a modern hitler like Putin or its the "let them rape everyone because he has nukes" all the way ?
You sound like you would disagree with war on Russia even if Poland was invaded.

It depends if Poland does something to antagonize. If Russia attacks a NATO member, NATO is obliged to defend it; however, if a NATO member actively includes itself in direct conflict when the other NATO members have signaled their unwillingness to escalate the conflict, that NATO member may find itself alone. To be real for a second, the war in Ukraine is not a principal concern to NATO, and while we provide them with resources and will sanction Russia in retaliation, the war is quite literally not ours to fight. If the conflict spills over into a member state, retaliation is a given, but actively involving ourselves in every fight, especially under the threat of nuclear retaliation, is not desirable.

[Bluespiderman57]

Well this doesn't bode well for those protestors...

CNN: Putin calls pro-Western Russians "national traitors"

Reminds me of something I read a few hours ago on Youtube.

I have seen a lot of talk, on social media, on TV, and even in papers, full of optimism in anticipation of the supposedly impending collapse of the Putin regime. I am far more pessimistic and caution you against this optimism. I have Russian friends and over the last weeks they have all left Russia for Estonia, Finland, and Germany, and should you have Russian friends who oppose Putin - I would highly advise you to talk them into leaving their country. Because I believe things are going to become very grim in Russia.

I studied history at the Institute for Slavic cultural studies in Vienna, I have taken a special interest in Russian history. And let me tell you, the one thing that has happened throughout Russian history whenever a Russian leader went to war - were domestic crackdowns and increasing authoritarianism. The only exception to this was when the Soviet Union lost the war in Afghanistan, and when the Tsar lost the first world war, and those are exceptions because they were tied to a collapse of the Russian state structures themselves into chaos and anarchy (The end of communism and the end of the Russian monarchy)

I assume that most of you live in democratic countries. And if you do, you need to keep in mind that you live in a civil society with political powers held by the public. When we go to war as democracies, our societies have the right to critique and influence the war through electoral means and public pressure. For example, Spain joined the Iraq war in 2003, the Spanish public hated it, and a year later the Spanish people voted their government out and the new government instantly pulled Spain out of the Iraq war.

That does not happen in non-democratic countries. When Saddam Hussain lost his war against Kuwait he started a genocide against Shia Arabs. When the Nazis realized they had lost the second world war in 1943 they intensified the Holocaust. When the Ottomans started losing the first world war they committed the Armenian genocide. When Pakistan lost its 1971 war against India it resulted in a coup and brutal authoritarian regime. When Stalin lost the Winter War he launched a brutal purge of Soviet Intellectuals and military leaders.

Authoritarian regimes, can not admit to mistakes. There is no bigger mistake for an authoritarian ruler than losing a war. Accountability for war always lies with those who start it, and rather than admitting a mistake or a defeat an authoritarian ruler will always crackdown on civil dissent first. The war is currently not looking good for Putin. It is possible that he may lose it. What is certain already is that this war has come at an enormous cost to the Russian people. And I believe Putin will blame that cost on some fall-guy in his government (probably the boss of the internal security services) and then crack down on any and all remaining public dissent with a ruthlessness that we have not seen in Russia in decades.

If you have Russian friends in Russia who oppose this war or oppose Putin, you should ask them to leave Russia. I hope I am wrong. I really hope I am wrong. But, if the study of history is by any means an indicator by which one can predict future developments, then I believe there are very dark times ahead for Russia. And that we will see Russia return to the type of iron-fisted authoritarianism that we have not seen since some of the darkest days of the Soviet Union.

While I'm not quite as pessimistic as some others here, I do think that Donbass, the southeastern coast, and Crimea are lost causes at this time. If a ceasefire can be agreed on quickly enough, I think Odessa can be saved. My question is whether or not all that has been captured will satisfy Putin enough to prevent the same things from above from happening.

[PhaelixWW]

Reminds me of something I read a few hours ago on Youtube.

I said it a few days ago here, but if Putin's regime is ousted, it's going to be from within. I don't think anyone should count on a popular uprising to accomplish much of anything other than getting a whole lot of people imprisoned or killed.

That being said, if conditions get bad enough due to continued sanctions, some enterprising cabal among Putin's inner circle might decide that it's worth it to try and take him out and hit the reset button on international affairs.

[draynay]

I said it a few days ago here, but if Putin's regime is ousted, it's going to be from within. I don't think anyone should count on a popular uprising to accomplish much of anything other than getting a whole lot of people imprisoned or killed.

That being said, if conditions get bad enough due to continued sanctions, some enterprising cabal among Putin's inner circle might decide that it's worth it to try and take him out and hit the reset button on international affairs.

Military failures damaging and ending regimes is another Russian tradition.

[PhaelixWW]

Military failures damaging and ending regimes is another Russian tradition.

Just to be replaced with another regime, though, with very little (if any) real improvement for the people.

That's another Russian tradition.

[Easo]

On the first subtopic - y

I don't need to convince anyone, it is an absolutely insane option, which would make new conflicts.


So now it is about specifically Tochkas in Donetsk, instead of Tochkas in general/shelling of Donetsk in general? Or the fact that Ukraine did bomb cities?
Articles are "too fresh"?

Oh, and "anti-Ukraine" HRW? Pro-Russian shills? Let me guess - OSCE calling out things like tortures are probably "anti-Ukraine" as well.

And yes, it is (well, was, due to recent events) civil war - majority of fighters are locals. Just because Russia supported them does not make it less of a civil war.

If only the world was so simple...

Doesn't Greece have some?

Couple batteries only (were supposed to be Cypriot, but then Turkey started war threats), no way they are gonna give those up, because, well, Turkey.

You need to stop with those lies, OK? When those people cut themselves into pieces, put those pieces into plastic bags, load those plastic bags into luggage bags, padlock those bags, and throw them into rivers, the obvious cause is suicide. The amount of ignorance people show by stating otherwise is astounding.

Because we are supposed to blindly believe everything? As from BBC this morning, 1h ago:

So again we're left with who caused what, who is to blame.

Because I really hope that it would be preferable for everyone to find out there are no thousand plus people under the ruins and it was some kind of propaganda setup by Azov. But if there is, then yeah, feel free to rage.

[Saradain]

This Azov truly is the boogieman excuse for all things.

Weirdly enough, only for war crimes committed by the russians...

[Gaaz]

Russia's inflation rate has surpassed its annual target in just 2 weeks. Oops.

The UK's MoD report hasn't really changed much - Russia is still largely stalled, making minimal progress and taking heavy losses.

I am in Kiev right now. Make no mistake - Russia still treats the situation here with white gloves. I am constantly seeing our military (Ukrainian military to be exact) ride in ambulances to go between parts of the city. I bet that in a few days you will hear that "Evil Putin Destroys Hospitals" or some other shit. Yeah, our military hides in some hospitals and uses medical transport for military purposes. I must repeat, I have seen it with my own eyes, on multiple occasions. In fact, for 2 weeks straight, I have not seen a single ambulance without a couple of camouflaged, armed people with yellow bands on their arm on front seats. Draw your own conclusions from that.
As for white gloves, not far from my house there are Grad launchers hiding between buildings. 5 or 6 of them, hard to be sure, since I rarely go to that area and am not willing to get shot for trying to count them (a motorcyclist almost got shot on my street because he was wearing a Go Pro camera on his helmet. They tore it off his helmet. He said it was not operational but I do not know how it all ended since I was told to move along. Arguing against an AK wielding psycho during war times is not my favorite past time). Anyway, back to white gloves - a couple of days ago someone probably snapped and Russians shelled the launch area with their own barrage, as Ukrainian launchers were taking their shots toward Russian positions. I do not know how many were destroyed or damaged but it sounded like a local Armageddon. I could hear 3 rockets launch between Russian barrage hits, likely just to eject unspent ammo with no particular aiming. I must remind you that OUR artillery hides between civilian buildings. And sooner or later, if Russians would feel threatened, they will start counterbattery fire no matter the surroundings. Do not believe propaganda that Russia is loosing badly. Would you feel that your military is winning if an enemy advances and encircles your capital with strike forces? I am sure that they suffered losses. But to my perspective, they still treat our forces as a nuisance, a pain in the ass, their main concern being to not cause major collateral damage during this invasion. If their plan would be in danger, I am sure a major change in tactics would follow, allowing for immediate and indiscriminate suppression of any resistance.
As a side note - Ukrainian military was 400k regular personnel in 2021. Plus a million of reserve personnel. 200k Russians (with support from rebel regions) have advanced to the point of encircling Kiev, our capital, controlling major industrial zones, and surrounding almost all ATO strike groups (which are about 100k in total). Think about it.

[Santti]

This Azov truly is the boogieman excuse for all things.

Weirdly enough, only for war crimes committed by the russians...

It's truly unfortunate to have such people, but if it weren't for them, Russia would be using other excuses instead. Putin and his cronies are no better than the Azov's, for sure.

[Magical Mudcrab]

Because we are supposed to blindly believe everything? As from BBC this morning, 1h ago:

Because I really hope that it would be preferable for everyone to find out there are no thousand plus people under the ruins and it was some kind of propaganda setup by Azov. But if there is, then yeah, feel free to rage.

No, but it comes off a little awkwardly when we can point to times where Russia has historically done something similar to a given situation, sometimes within the last couple of years, and then you turn around and effectively say "Well, I need a direct source from the Kremlin stating they did it." No one is saying believe everything you hear, but a little skepticism of Russia when they're committing war crimes on the daily would be nice.

[Corvus]

Not sure how you missed it but Russia has been targetting hospitals for a while now.

And isn't Kiev the Russian spelling? Ukrainians spell it Kyiv.

[Easo]

Not sure how you missed it but Russia has been targetting hospitals for a while now.

And isn't Kiev the Russian spelling? Ukrainians spell it Kyiv.

Are you not aware of the recent Ukrainization efforts...?

No, but it comes off a little awkwardly when we can point to times where Russia has historically done something similar to a given situation, sometimes within the last couple of years, and then you turn around and effectively say "Well, I need a direct source from the Kremlin stating they did it." No one is saying believe everything you hear, but a little skepticism of Russia when they're committing war crimes on the daily would be nice.

Do you honestly think this thread is full of people actually checking anything first? As wiser people than us have said - in war truth is the first casualty.
I do not believe anyone. Ukraine is full of shit, Russia is full of shit, rebel "republics" are full of shit, etc.
Has Russia bombed objects with civilians in them? Sure. Welcome to war, it sucks.

P.S.
I wonder how many are going to rip into Gaaz's post.

[snebb]

Unconfirmed whispers that the bomb shelter under the theater is intact and people are coming out alive.

[PhaelixWW]

As a side note - Ukrainian military was 400k regular personnel in 2021. Plus a million of reserve personnel.

You claim to be Ukrainian... in Kyiv... but you got this horribly wrong.

Per NYTimes:

Ukraine has one of Europe’s largest militaries, with 170,000 active-duty troops, 100,000 reservists and territorial defense forces that include at least 100,000 veterans.

Per Reuters:

Ukraine's total active armed forces number 196,600, according to the authoritative IISS Military Balance report released last week.

In fact, there was a legal cap of 250k military personnel in Ukraine until a bill signed by Zelensky this February.

In other words, you clearly don't know what you're talking about. Or you're lying. Who knows.

Do you honestly think this thread is full of people actually checking anything first?

P.S.
I wonder how many are going to rip into Gaaz's post.

Some of us do fact-check and source, you know.

[Draco-Onis]

The president has veto power. Are we pretending that this would've gone through despite Trump refusing it?

Yes because the bill had a veto proof majority and you know this but chose to lie. Trump vetoing it would have been a humiliating therefore he had no choice but to try to slow it down for his master.