Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

Russia is entering a dark age with those sanctions. Back to the gutter for them is not unlikely.

When it will be a thing, then it will be re-evaluated. Nothing is static.

I do wish to chill down the optimism - you will have to wait a good half a decade the least for that even being a thing potentially.

People here can't wrap their heads around the fact that Russia had it much worse and 20 years down the road they found themselves on a huge pile of money and in West being talks of WW3.

So now they will have another bunch of shit years, until inevitably there will be some settlement. Business as usual, not their first rodeo.

[zealo]

Since you can't tell the difference one is a dictatorship arresting anyone who speaks against them the other is arresting people because of their race or religious belief regardless of their actions. Russia isn't rounding up every Ukrainian in those territories to march them to the gas chamber.

The nazis didn't start shoving people into ovens in 1933 either, and yet that's when the nazis started locking communists etc up in camps.

It's rather you displaying your own ignorance, and deciding to keep doubling down on it rather than bowing out when you're wrong.

[Breccia]

Ukraine pushes Russia out of Kyiv suburbs, retaking a highway and cutting off Russian troops trying to surround Kyiv.

Nice!

I'm interested in the fallout from this. On the one hand, Russia doesn't want to be seen as the loser here. On the other hand, they're not moving in more troops or supplies -- for some reason. US and EU say that Kyiv is Putin's main target, despite Putin's claims to the contrary, and while Russian forces are making progress elsewhere there's not enough progress for troops to split off from other cities and head for Kyiv to help.

I've seen multiple reports, we all have, that Russia is switching to carpet-bombing because everything else has failed.

Despite setbacks, Russian forces have most of their forces intact and are trying to overcome.

"They are looking for a chance to gain some momentum -- not even regain momentum ... because they never really had it. And that's what's so frustrating for them," the official said.

The frustrated Russian ground effort is leading to more missile strikes and artillery bombardment on cities, which makes things ever more dangerous for civilians, according to the official.

"This is not a military known for precision," the official said of the invaders.

Which is why we're getting reports of apartment buildings and childrens' hospitals being blown up. Also, there's an issue with artillery and missiles: they run out.

The U.S. assesses Russia has fired more than 1,100 missiles against Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. And there are indications it is having "inventory issues" with its precision-guided munitions, which could be one reason we're seeing greater use of unguided "dumb bombs," the official said.

The official added that Russia still has the majority of its missile stocks available.

But the Pentagon is also seeing problems with the reliability of Russia's precision weapons. Some Russian missiles are "failing to launch, or they're failing to hit the target, or they're failing to explode on contact," the official said.

Butt artillery and missiles aren't Putin's only weapons.

I mean, but artillery and missiles aren't Putin's only weapons. We have another report of Russian navy commander Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paly killed in Mariupol fighting. Shit, wrong article. Um, the Russian navy is in play. I don't see how Ukraine can cut off warships in the Black Sea from resupplying, or leaving to resupply if they need to. I also don't know what weapons they have that can reach and sink a Russian warship, while Russian warships have demonstrably taken part in attacking coastal areas. In all these reports we've seen, "Ukraine beats Russian navy" hasn't really come up. I've seen Turkey mentioned once or twice, that's it.

Putin has left himself with little to work with. Bringing his navy to bear, firing artillery until they're dry, firing a hypersonic missile at point-blank range, committing war crimes, these are not actions you take when your ground forces are doing great. This is further evidenced by bickering between Putin's military and intelligence agencies that have landed his top spy chief in house arrest. When you staff your entire cabinet with yes-men who only tell you what you want to hear, then you refuse to admit you made a mistake, firing and arresting people is really the only tool you have left. Hell, we saw Trump do it, and Trump's a blowhard coward. Putin, by contrast, actually fucking murders people.

Every day Russia doesn't win is another victory for Ukraine. While Russia's manpower and supplies are showing signs of decay, their economy isn't doing a ton better.

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The Russian equity market remained closed on Monday. But over the weekend, the central bank also made its first steps to settling billions of dollars of equity trades for international investors, which had become trapped when Putin introduced capital controls at the end of February. The move banned Russian-based institutions from transferring foreign currency abroad.

The central bank confirmed there would be a window to finalise outstanding deals in all currencies for “non-resident clients from unfriendly countries”.

It will allow deals done before February 28 — the day the stock market closed — to be settled and remain open until April 1. However, the funds will remain in Russia while the controls are in place.

Again, moves like "all foreigners must pay us their debts with foreign money, but can't sell their Russian assets" is not something you do when your economy is going great. It's what you do when you're trying to keep it from collapsing into default, like having your central bank buy your government's bonds with useless local currency. The price for Ukraine's standoff is steep, but at least Ukraine isn't the only one paying it.

[Draco-Onis]

The nazis didn't start shoving people into ovens in 1933 either, and yet that's when the nazis started locking communists etc up in camps.

It's rather you displaying your own ignorance, and deciding to keep doubling down on it rather than bowing out when you're wrong.

It's rather ludicrous you think Russian sees Ukrainian like the Nazis viewed the Jews or communists.

[Vankrys]

When it will be a thing, then it will be re-evaluated. Nothing is static.

I do wish to chill down the optimism - you will have to wait a good half a decade the least for that even being a thing potentially.

People here can't wrap their heads around the fact that Russia had it much worse and 20 years down the road they found themselves on a huge pile of money and in West being talks of WW3.

So now they will have another bunch of shit years, until inevitably there will be some settlement. Business as usual, not their first rodeo.

we are more in agreement, you and I, then we realize.
Of course, i never say said Ukraine joining NATO in 2022 is even remotely possible, i was just saying
- never say never
- geopolitical landscapes are always shifting
- it is not impossible thinking Ukraine as a NATO member within the next decade
- What Zelinsly says or does not say matters little, countries walk back their words all the times (exemple: the Iran deal)

[Elegiac]

It's rather ludicrous you think Russian sees Ukrainian like the Nazis viewed the Jews.

Why's it ludicrous when Putain himself said as much?

What we now call Ukraine, he says, “was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik Communist Russia.” In this questionable narrative, a trio of early Soviet leaders — Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev — carved land away from Russia and several nearby nations to create a distinct and ahistorical republic called Ukraine. The creation of Ukraine and the other Soviet republics, Putin says, was an attempt to win the support of “the most zealous nationalists” across the Soviet Union — at the expense of the historical idea of Russia.

In the speech, he uses a revealing metaphor on these issues: “the virus of nationalism.” Ukrainian nationalism, in his view, is an infection introduced to the Russian host by the Bolsheviks; when the Soviet Union collapsed, and republics from Ukraine to Estonia to Georgia declared independence, the virus killed its host.

The choice of words is the indicator. It's the same language used by fascists when describing the groups they want to erase.

Once again; what exactly is it that you think you're accomplishing by downplaying or outright excusing the Kremlin's policies?

[Azadina]

You do realize you are basically asking Ukraine to enter a never ending war right? because even if you are right Russia isn't going to entirely pull out of Ukraine, they will always have forces in the separatist regions and the fighting would never stop. There's no situation where Ukraine on its own gets its entire territory back from Russia and gets peace in the process.

As opposed to...what? Immediate unconditional surrender, like some have wished from the start here? To hell with that, or anything like that. Ukraine remains Ukraine, Russia fucks off back to Russia. How about that for solution?

[Draco-Onis]

As opposed to...what? Immediate unconditional surrender, like some have wished from the start here? To hell with that, or anything like that. Ukraine remains Ukraine, Russia fucks off back to Russia. How about that for solution?

Please show me where I said they need to unconditionally surrender, you know there's a planet size gap between fighting until the end and total surrender right? The extremes are not the only options.

[Elegiac]

Please show me where I said they need to unconditionally surrender, you know there's a compromise between fighting until the end and total surrender right?

Uh huh.

In other words: the annexation of Ukraine is acceptable to you as long as it's done in a piecemeal fashion through sequential "compromises" in which Ukraine yields increasing amounts of territory and Russia yields... fuck all, I guess? Rofl.

The term for that is appeasement.

[Shadowferal]

Here is the thing, NATO is not an economic agreement, i think everyone knows that, though it does encourage friendly economic and trading relationship between members. But, safety and stability does help a country to develop its economy, and NATO provide that. For exemple, investing billions of dollars in Ukraine building manufacture plants or oil refinery, even before the war, was a risky venture. Ukraine alone cannot guaranty its safety and, if Russia seize or destroy the plant, investors stand to lose billions. Contrast this with country like the Baltic country. The relative safety provided by NATO, can and does attract foreign investments. Lithuania GDP increase 500% in the last 20 years. There is a link between safety and prosperity.

The upshot imo is that attacking any country in the EU will eventually result involving NATO as it will involve NATO allied countries that are well into EU countries.

[Gaidax]

Uh huh.

In other words: the annexation of Ukraine is acceptable to you as long as it's done in a piecemeal fashion through sequential "compromises" in which Ukraine yields increasing amounts of territory and Russia yields... fuck all, I guess? Rofl.

The term for that is appeasement.

And what you gonna do about it?

Reality is a bitch. That's why I'm saying that no matter how much Ukraine protests - Crimea goes to Russia, simply because they can do nothing about that one, for instance.

Right now Ukraine needs to work hard to minimize the damage they will sustain both outside and inside these negotiations. Some things are easily given up, others will be a sacrifice.

Russia will also not get 100% of what it wants, so the compromise is there. They will meet somewhere in the middle.

[Elegiac]

And what you gonna do about it?

Not carry water for the Kremlin and insist that continued sanctions and military aid to Ukraine and insurgents in its Russian occupied areas are bad because Humanitarian Reasons™, for one thing.

Russia will also not get 100% of what it wants

One side sacrificing something while the other gets "partial success" isn't a compromise, habibi. It's appeasement.

[Flarelaine]

Yup yup, and Kyiv was supposed to have fallen after the first weekend.

Keep on doomin', the longer Russia stays in Ukraine, the worse it gets for them.

It also gets worse for Ukraine, though.

[Vankrys]

As opposed to...what? Immediate unconditional surrender, like some have wished from the start here? To hell with that, or anything like that. Ukraine remains Ukraine, Russia fucks off back to Russia. How about that for solution?

Russia has already lost. The faster Putin realize that, the smaller the body count will be.

Let's theorize for a minute.
Say Russia manage to capture Ukraine president and member of the government, he exile them, imprison them or execute them, no matter, they are out of the picture.
Then he installs a pro Russian government, through force or fake elections, then leave, perhaps leaving a token armed forces to protect the new president.

Then what happens? The Ukrainians ousted a pro russian president in 2014 during the revolution of Dignity. Does anyone think the Ukrainians had a change in mind 8 years later and after being invaded, bombed and killed by the Russians, they would suddenly love the russians and love to be governed by them.

[Gaidax]

Not carry water for the Kremlin and insist that continued sanctions and military aid to Ukraine and insurgents in its Russian occupied areas are bad because Humanitarian Reasons™, for one thing.

So basically nothing, that's what I thought.

Here's a shocker for you - sanctions will also be on negotiations table - that's the only real leverage Ukraine has.

- - - Updated - - -

*snip*

Toppling Ukrainian government is not on the books for Russia anymore. It's part of realization.

You people need to get up to speed there.

[Azadina]

Please show me where I said they need to unconditionally surrender, you know there's a planet size gap between fighting until the end and total surrender right? The extremes are not the only options.

If you'll note, the other part of that sentence you bolded is also important.

[Draco-Onis]

If you'll note, the other part of that sentence you bolded is also important.

How do you propose Ukraine on its own takes back all of its territory? again not even the most optimistic scenarios see that happening. I don't think you are being realistic here especially with so many lives at stake. I understand the urge not to want to give the hostage taker anything but that's what we do all the time because lives are more important.

[Gorsameth]

I'd say the question if/when Ukraine surrenders to Russia for indiscriminately flattening cities is a question only the Ukrainian people can answer, and not something for forum warriors on MMO-C. While they fight, the West should keep supplying them to continue said fight for their freedom.

And sofar it would seem there answer is still no on surrender.

[Elegiac]

So basically nothing, that's what I thought.

Here's a shocker for you - sanctions will also be on negotiations table - that's the only real leverage Ukraine has.

Hey, remember back in the beginning of this thread when you said that the sanctions would be perfunctory or ineffective because Putain has planned for every contingency?

Kinda funny how you've switched tack now that they've been proven anything but.

- - - Updated - - -

How do you propose Ukraine on its own takes back all of its territory? again not even the most optimistic scenarios see that happening. I don't think you are being realistic here especially with so many lives at stake. I understand the urge not to want to give the hostage taker anything but that's what we do all the time because lives are more important.

You'll do anything for peace for our time, we get it. No need to keep belabouring the point.

[Azadina]

How do you propose Ukraine on its own takes back all of its territory? again not even the most optimistic scenarios see that happening. I don't think you are being realistic here especially with so many lives at stake. I understand the urge not to want to give the hostage taker anything but that's what we do all the time because lives are more important.

Surrender and appeasement, how noble. Luckily, the Ukrainians have more of a spine than that option.