Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Don't be naïve, politics do not care about proverbs.

No, politicians care about public opinion. And you're the naïf if you think there's no public opinion difference between 2008 and now.

No guarantees that that will always be the case in the future, of course, but then again: no guarantees that it won't.

[Fugus]

I think the OP of the thread has had too much influence on you.

No, I don't actively follow this thread majorly, I am just not stupid enough to think Russia could nuke a nation and the world stand by and watch knowing the consequences of that action to the surrounding regions and how they have already threatened to do it on others and already released their long term intentions.

If Russia sends a nuke ANYWHERE, it will be on the receiving end of many more in response and Russia knows this, no matter how much water you want to carry for them.

[Gaidax]

No, politicians care about public opinion. And you're the naïf if you think there's no public opinion difference between 2008 and now.

No guarantees that that will always be the case in the future, of course, but then again: no guarantees that it won't.

Public opinions are not hard to manipulate, that's why I said not as long as Putin is a thing.

Putin will go out, someone else come it - make some positive moves, get some stories about how it's totes new approach and thaw - and you get the ball going.

And even if not that. There is still plenty wiggle room to make a deal - like Iran.

[PhaelixWW]

Public opinions are not hard to manipulate, that's why I said not as long as Putin is a thing.

Putin will go out, someone else come it - make some positive moves, get some stories about how it's totes new approach and thaw - and you get the ball going.

And even if not that. There is still plenty wiggle room to make a deal - like Iran.

If you think American public opinion of Russia-Ukraine is the same as that of Iran...

[Gaidax]

If you think American public opinion of Russia-Ukraine is the same as that of Iran...

Puhlease,

American public attention span is that of a goldfish. In 2 years you have elections and in-between, as well as soon after you will find plenty other controversies and causes to gnaw on.

Don't go turning American public opinion into some sort of a thing, when you have a chunk of country ready to drink bleach or cow dewormer and other chunk thinks US is Avengers or Beacon of Freedom and happiness in the world, because some dude said so. Just to show how easy your unwashed masses are to manipulate.

That's kinda hilarious even.

[YUPPIE]

And gives other nations and groups even more reason to resist him and fight him.

sadly, though, he cannot be *stopped* even if we can resist him. As pointed out many times over: You can't kill him, and you can't negotiate with him. No options.

[Fugus]

sadly, though, he cannot be *stopped* even if we can resist him. As pointed out many times over: You can't kill him, and you can't negotiate with him. No options.

haha, lie to yourself all you want, he can be stopped, there isn't a human being alive who can't.

Even if you can't negotiate with them, at that point, you just remove their options from the table.

[CostinR]

Don't be naïve, politics do not care about proverbs.

In the end nobody really wants Cold War 2.0, or splitting the world into two or simply having a rogue permanent security council member. It's just the reality of it - so yes, West will reset as many times as necessary, because ultimately it is the right thing to do for the good of the many at expense of the good of the few.

That's how things work.

I don't believe you are wrong about the West wanting a reset but I do believe we are headed towards Cold War 2.0, if not over Ukraine then China trying to take Taiwan, if/when that happens.

[PhaelixWW]

Don't go turning American public opinion into some sort of a thing, when you have a chunk of country ready to drink bleach or cow dewormer, because some dude said so.

Hey, it was inject bleach and horse dewormer...

...wait, what was I saying? <glub glub>


...


But seriously, I'm not discounting that the average American's attention span to political drama is... somewhat limited. But that doesn't mean that it's as non-existent as you're pretending. Nor is the situation the same this time; even a casual perusal of headlines can tell you as much.

[YUPPIE]

haha, lie to yourself all you want, he can be stopped, there isn't a human being alive who can't.

Even if you can't negotiate with them, at that point, you just remove their options from the table.

no one has yet figured out the puzzle of dealing with an unnegotiable paranoid despot armed with nuclear weapons, waving them around casually.

[Gaidax]

I don't believe you are wrong about the West wanting a reset but I do believe we are headed towards Cold War 2.0, if not over Ukraine then China trying to take Taiwan, if/when that happens.

Likely, but both sides will constantly be looking for an out.

Cold War 2.0 is no-one's interest. Russia is not USSR, it can't quite detach itself from West and West does not really want to go another decade of Soviet-like bullshit either.

It is a given that eventually there will be an agreement.

[muto]

It shows the gross level of corruption in Russia. The CBR is sweating over 66 million dollar payment, and Putin has a yacht worth upward of 700 million dollar sitting in a port in Italy.

They should use all those yachts to house refugees.

[Fugus]

no one has yet figured out the puzzle of dealing with an unnegotiable paranoid despot armed with nuclear weapons, waving them around casually.

No, people have, they just don't want to go that route unless they absolutely have to and can justify it because, if you cut the head off the snake, you have to worry about what kinda head grows back to replace it.

Go at him economically, which hits hard but less direct, and a less sneaky alternative to Russia's stuff with Trump, Brexit, and the likes, if push comes to shove and you actually think he will try for the nukes, you take him out personally, just make sure you can justify it to the world and the people of Russia to make sure that whomever tries to replace him doesn't try to do the same.

Like I said, there isn't a man alive who can't be stopped, even if they can't be controlled. Even the uncontrolled have to work within the options they have available to them.

[CostinR]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

[PhaelixWW]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

It's an impossible scenario. Russia doesn't have enough troops to occupy Ukraine. The only way they conquer Ukraine is if Ukraine is depopulated.

And then there won't be people left to be condemned to misery.

[YUPPIE]

No, people have, they just don't want to go that route unless they absolutely have to and can justify it because, if you cut the head off the snake, you have to worry about what kinda head grows back to replace it.

Go at him economically, which hits hard but less direct, and a less sneaky alternative to Russia's stuff with Trump, Brexit, and the likes, if push comes to shove and you actually think he will try for the nukes, you take him out personally, just make sure you can justify it to the world and the people of Russia to make sure that whomever tries to replace him doesn't try to do the same.

Like I said, there isn't a man alive who can't be stopped, even if they can't be controlled. Even the uncontrolled have to work within the options they have available to them.

It is even difficult to go after him economically or pound him with sanctions considering he is INSANE. For now they're working, yes, but when they eventually add up to cripple him to fuckedville forever, who is to say then he won't just decide "fuck it?" That's why the situation is terrifying.

You say no lunatic in history is unable to be stopped. Putin is the first one with nukes and threatening to use them.

[Gaidax]

Hey, it was inject bleach and horse dewormer...

...wait, what was I saying? <glub glub>


...


But seriously, I'm not discounting that the average American's attention span to political drama is... somewhat limited. But that doesn't mean that it's as non-existent as you're pretending. Nor is the situation the same this time; even a casual perusal of headlines can tell you as much.

Oh sorry, gotta recheck Tuck's recommendations on correct consumption of the miracle cure.

For sure people won't go ahead and view Russia favorably in US, but you dismiss just how much you have people ready to swallow whatever their fav political force feeds them hook line and sinker in US.

If in two-three years whoever has the lead will start working towards "reset" - you can bet they will eventually sell it, because there are plenty drones both sides simping their Big Kahuna unconditionally.

[PhaelixWW]

For sure people won't go ahead and view Russia favorably in US, but you dismiss just how much you have people ready to swallow whatever their fav political force feeds them hook line and sinker in US.

No. No, I really don't.

If in two-three years whoever has the lead will start working towards "reset" - you can bet they will eventually sell it, because there are plenty drones both sides simping their Big Kahuna unconditionally.

And for what benefit would they engender this "reset" if not public opinion? What does it gain the politicians to have to use the mechanisms of politics to influence the "drones" enough to do so?

There's very little impetus to change it.

[Gaidax]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

That's like reading the cards or crystal ball. Who knows what it will be - likely yes, you'd have to sanction it all, because you certainly can't sanction Russia with one hand and then effectively spam it with humanitarian aid the other (ok yes North Korea, but not a good example IMO).

I do think, however, there is snowball's chance in hell Russia manages to take over Ukraine in that fashion this time around.

[Cynep]

So all the innocent people that would die don't matter in this equation? Why do you think total surrender is the only option? Ukraine will have to compromise to make a deal, I don't think Zelensky want that many people to die in the name of pride.

As a rule, submissiveness leads to more abuse and suffering than defiance. Still some people would choose to live as a slave while other people would choose to die fighting for their freedom. Ukrainians as a people were fighting for their freedom during majority of the last 500 years, and they made the same choice again a month ago.

There's an entire gamut of options of course, ranging from "fight a guerrilla war after hypothetical full occupation, until the enemy breaks and leaves" to "surrender at the moment of aggression" which already didn't happen, with a dozen of options I could list in between. Surrender is not really an option for Zelensky at this stage, though.

Yeah Ukraine will likely have to compromise, and I even outlined a reasonable compromise 3 weeks ago - Ukraine stays out of NATO, Russia withdraws beyond internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. That is a compromise, not a surrender.