Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

My guess is that he had a shock and awe campaign of trying to startle Ukraine into some form of easy surrender of some territory Putin desired, likely with the added goals of scaring them into some form of disarmament (for easier future Russian territory acquisitions) and likely a complete swearing off of joining NATO. (Again, to ensure they remained largely defenseless.) I'm going to assume that their "Ukraine doesn't immediately fold" contingency plan was basically to just ram all their forces in towards Kyiv, and they thought such a thing would be adequate to force the matter: That zelensky would flee or capitulate and the Ukrainians would dissolve in terror, and that such a thing would take a few weeks at most.

I think their failure is twofold: 1) Ukraine putting up a hell of a better fight than they expected, due both to Ukrainian resolve and the utter state of disarray that's become apparent in the Russian military machine that's put Ukraine on a much more even foot with Russia and 2) The rest of the world not just idly sitting by in apathy. If we still had a Russian sympathizing moron like Trump in the white house, these past few months might have gone very differently on an international level. Perhaps Putin thought that he had adequately pro-russianized the US with four years of Trump. Perhaps he thought that he could threaten the EU with energy dependence. Either way, yet another grievous miscalculation on Russia's part, and one that's basically doomed Russia the longer they stay in conflict.


As you point out, however, these things are all predicated upon Russia, the government that lies through its teeth every chance it gets, believing things that simply weren't the case. And the con man is always in the most trouble when he starts believing his own con.

Back near the beginning of the invasion, I said this:

Zelensky staying is the worst scenario for them, because it's causing the resistance to be even tougher...

I don't know if Ukraine gets as much aid as it's getting if it doesn't have a visible Zelensky to rally international news around.

...because it's important to note just how much of an effect Zelensky has had in garnering that aid and preventing international apathy. So I'd add that to your list of failures.

The other important thing is that Russia has basically spent the last 8 years hardening their target. Things would have been better for Russia if they'd kept moving in after taking Crimea in 2014, or even if they'd just rolled in right after Trump was sworn into office in 2017. But now, Ukrainian troops have spent those 8 years being trained by the best militaries in the world, and have been primed specifically to fight Russian troops, essentially.

And then, of course, there's Xi Jinping's trolling, asking Putin to wait until after the Olympics... when the snow started to melt and the land turned to mud. That was a huge blunder.

Wow, so many failures to choose from.

[Corvus]

Saw someone raise an interesting point - Ukraine is only meant to have 18 TB2 drones so how did Russia shoot down 35 of them?

[Cynep]

Another zero-budget music video by an unquestionably patriotic Russian, and one of the best Russian songwriters of last 25 years (and lyricists, if you can handle breadth of his vocabulary). In most serious way, without any hidden agenda I'm asking fellow Russian speakers - how do you interpret the text of this song?

For non-speakers, the gist is "an epoch has ended... [we didn't realize then] how good our bad life was". The female singer is a real superstar, you can just listen to her without even understanding a word, I highly recommend. I hope she gets a proper career after the war ends.

[For_The_Horde]

Vladimort and the war that shall not be named.

[Azadina]

So this was the last reply you left for me. Do you still believe this and how do you feel that a 7th General has now died? And as I brought up last time, only 1 general has died on the US side since 9/11. In closing I will leave you with this beautiful picture, please send it to your boss for me.

I asked him about Generals when he returned from vacation. He had switched from "no generals dead" to paraphrasing; "well, we got 2200 generals so who gives a fuck how many dozen die in Ukraine".

[Shalcker]

Saw someone raise an interesting point - Ukraine is only meant to have 18 TB2 drones so how did Russia shoot down 35 of them?

Turkey had always said that "those drones are just private company selling their product"; and there are a lot of people (and countries) willing to pay them to deliver more while conflict is ongoing.

Cargo planes flying from Turkey to airports near Ukrainian border - while avoiding Hungary that denies use of their territory to help Ukraine - are quite clear sign of those deliveries happening.

[Dontrike]

Given that war is still ongoing it still can happen, one way or another.

I thought it was only supposed to take a few days at most? Why is the war still happening a month later? Is Russia military failing all part of the plan? How much did your pay go down when the ruble fell?

[XDurionX]

Given that war is still ongoing it still can happen, one way or another.

Not that it ever was explicitly set as a non-negotiable goal, so it can stay ambiguous on wherever they actually want(ed) it.

Damn son, you've used that three letter word again. Be more cautious!

[Shalcker]

I thought it was only supposed to take a few days at most?

That was also timeframe in which some people expected Russian economy to fold, bank runs and all.

Why is the war still happening a month later? Is Russia military failing all part of the plan?

Is Mariupol falling part of Ukrainian plan?

[Azadina]

Damn son, you've used that three letter word again. Be more cautious!

He's taking so many risks here on 15 years jail for "spreading fake news about the special operation".

Bravery or foolishness? One can only guess.

[jonnysensible]

Is Mariupol falling part of Ukrainian plan?

This doesn't even make sense as a retort.

[Liftbrul]

He's taking so many risks here on 15 years jail for "spreading fake news about the special operation".

Bravery or foolishness? One can only guess.

He's clearly on Kremlin's payroll disseminating state propaganda to westerners. I'm sure he's given special leave to use the no-no words.

[Bakis]

Is Mariupol falling part of Ukrainian plan?

This comment doesn't even make sense lol

[Shalcker]

This doesn't even make sense as a retort.

What do you think is Ukrainian plan? Lose cities, soldiers, and military equipment until Russia gets frustrated enough to leave while pumping out war propaganda?

Western actions with "no off-ramps" don't give Russia incentives to do so.

Ukraine reportedly only holds out on recognizing Crimea and Donbass legal status, they already reached agreement on every other demand.

Once Donbass gets "liberated" for republics, do you think they'll wait for fall of Kiev?

[postman1782]

What do you think is Ukrainian plan? Lose cities, soldiers, and military equipment until Russia gets frustrated enough to leave while pumping out war propaganda?

Western actions with "no off-ramps" don't give Russia incentives to do so.

Ukraine reportedly only holds out on recognizing Crimea and Donbass legal status, they already reached agreement on every other demand.

Once Donbass gets "liberated" for republics, do you think they'll wait for fall of Kiev?

Funny, because all evidence shows that Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Western actions with "no off-ramps" don't give Russia incentives to do so.

Did anyone have "It's all the West's fault" on their bingo cards?

[MCMLXXXII]

Thank you, I pissed in my pants laughing

- - - Updated - - -

Did anyone have "It's all the West's fault" on their bingo cards?

Yep but there are so many crosses on it already it's unreadable.

[Azadina]

Once Donbass gets "liberated" for republics, do you think they'll wait for fall of Kiev?

Once your remaining terrorist force falls back and "liberates" Donbass area, there's very little reason not to level the entire place by shelling and bombing. You've already killed and made the civilians flee at that point.

[Cynep]

That was also timeframe in which some people expected Russian economy to fold, bank runs and all.

Only foolish people could think Russia will fold in days, or a single month.

Have you listened to the Leningrad song I linked above? It's only 3 minutes long. I'm interested in your opinion - he seems to lament something, but it's open for interpretation what exactly.

[Shkar]

While he admittedly invited the comparison, Putin is nothing like Voldemort.

Voldemort actually told the truth when he offered safety to Hogwarts if Harry turned himself over.