Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

[Fugus]

And the Gish Gallop from Shillcker continues...

Yep, I think I have missed at least the last 20+ pages of this thread because it just hasn’t been worth the time of sorting through it.

And the fact that this can continue unmoderated is a scathing example of how the current moderation principles on the forum have failed and needs to be updated.

[PC2]

"Living in interesting times" and all. We'll see how new world will shake up.

Most of the world will just keep making gradual and incremental progress over time. A "shake-up" is just drama and hype.

I expect globalism to be dead and buried, splintering back to regional cultural and trade blocks.

Why do you think localism and seclusionism has only created poor societies?

And a lot of things considered important on this forum to elicit a smile about "good old days" in a year's time.

It seems like you are just trying to project your own pessimism onto us.

[Breccia]

More so since Russia have zero, nada, zip history of ever creating a functional institution able to work sucessfully with the rest of the world in modern times.

Funny story, that link I posted? Russians are complaining because they feel like it's back in USSR times.

People are sharing tips about where to get sugar. This is crazy. It’s sad and it’s funny. It feels like a month ago was fine and now we’re talking about the 1990s again, buying products because … we’re afraid they’ll disappear.

I think we are steadily going back to a USSR. I’m not seeing it as a temporary shock and then we’re going to go back to the liberal democracy and reintegration into the world, unless there is a change in government.

People were so busy with just surviving. Getting basic drugs, basic foods, surviving on minimal pensions … people are coming very skinny to this crisis. They don’t have savings, they were barely surviving before, and now they’ll be spending days in queues and lacking access to basic healthcare and drugs.

It is possible that a couple of years down the road that there will be Russian alternatives for products from Microsoft to tampons but it will take time to produce. And the question is who will produce that.

Interesting that
1) the USSR days are being looked upon as bad times, when things weren't available, and
2) Putin is trying to bring it back.

Of course, it's actually a little tricky to find articles about the Russian people having food shortages. I keep finding articles about Russian troops with food shortages.

I guess you could live without sugar. Medicine is another story.

"What? The US and EU are cutting off sick Russians? That's horrible!"

As bad as shelling shelters loaded with civilians? On purpose?"

"Um..."

Besides, that's not what's happening.

The main reason for the current medications crisis is that punitive sanctions have cut off Russian banks from the international financial system, leaving pharmacies in the country unable to pay for the deliveries.

There are also problems with logistics, since some shipping companies, like the market's largest player Maersk, suspended all cargo transportations in and out of Russia.

The Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that Russian doctors are faced with a shortage of more than 80 drugs, citing a survey of 3,317 doctors by members of the Vrachi.rf professional community.

See, part of how globalism works is (a) you pay money for things you don't have (b) they're brought to you by countries that do. It goes by a bunch of names, like "trade" or "common sense"or "welcome to the 20th century". If a country, such as Russia, intentionally and publicly declares they don't want to be part of a system they rely on, then the issue is theirs to deal with.

Do I feel bad that Russian civilians are facing shortages of food, medicine, information, and other necessities? Of course. Problem is, Putin started a war intentionally and unilaterally, while hiding in a bunker stocked with everything except evidently Harry Potter movies. The actions needed to strike back are going to splash onto the Russian people he's using as 100 million hostage bullet shields. It sucks, no question...but when the other option is "Russia is allowed to murder civilians and conquer a country with no reaction at all" I'll side with the people who were murdered by the actions of another, rather than people who are merely sick and hungry by the actions of, well, technically...themselves.

Even central Asia is backing away from Putin, at his apparent request to be left out of globalization. With Russia being hit with consequences of their own actions, their few remaining trading partners are feeling the backlash, and are looking at ways to minimize the damage Russia is bringing on them.

[Shrouded]

This "failure of democracy" line and the entire way the war has gone for Russia reminds me of Starship Troopers, the movie - everything from the false pretenses of the war to the ridiculous propaganda to the disaster of throwing grunts into a meat grinder. I really should watch that movie again soon, it's so good.

[Shalcker]

Most of the world will just keep making gradual and incremental progress over time. A "shake-up" is mostly just marketing and hype.

The kind of change Europe pushes right now are anything but "gradual". Even if real shifts will stretch over years.

But system had long been standing on the brink waiting for a push - and there were enough forces around willing to provide that push and try to exploit resulting instability.

Why do you think localism and seclusionism has only created poor societies?

Current system primarily benefits Western powers; benefits of everyone else are secondary - and, as shown by last sanctions, vulnerable to disruption.

Creating stronger, more robust and more equal world - even if it will make both "golden billion" and the rest of the world temporarily poorer - should provide better growth long-term.

It seems like you are just trying to project your pessimism onto us.

You're an optimist.

I'm also an optimist, but of a different kind. World will be different; and that sometimes painful change will ultimately be for the better.

[Breccia]

Starship Troopers

Off-topic so make it short: do you think the humans hit their own planet with the meteor?

On-topic: MOEX to try half a day of "normal" trade Monday.

"Oh, so foreign stockholders can dump their holdings?"

Fuck, no. They're still locked out. Russians can dump their holdings, of course.

"Well, hopefully the Russians can short sell to get a few ru--"

Nope. That's illegal now, too.

I'm more interested in economic aspects of upcoming changes of the Russian goverment, which already proved they can't keep their stock market from falling for more than 24 hours, re-opening their stock market in a situation where every logical indicator is that it'll fall again. I'm guessing the rich Russians already sold their shares directly to the Russian goverment/central bank on that first day, now it's time for everyone else to lose. We'll find out Monday. Unless they close it again. Man, the "free market" seems to work so much better when you can just declare yourself the winner.

- - - Updated - - -

In the ongoing effort to "deNazify" Ukraine, Russian miiltary forces blow up a Holocaust memorial.

[Shrouded]

Off-topic so make it short: do you think the humans hit their own planet with the meteor?

For sure. The bugs were dangerous but not destroy-a-city-halfway-across-the-galaxy dangerous! False flag operation, the Federation needed an enemy to keep itself from falling apart (as was happening on the fringes of the Federation already).

I'm more interested in economic aspects of upcoming changes of the Russian goverment, which already proved they can't keep their stock market from falling for more than 24 hours, re-opening their stock market in a situation where every logical indicator is that it'll fall again. I'm guessing the rich Russians already sold their shares directly to the Russian goverment/central bank on that first day, now it's time for everyone else to lose. We'll find out Monday. Unless they close it again. Man, the "free market" seems to work so much better when you can just declare yourself the winner.

One fascinating thing about this is that the Russian rhetoric seems to be both that the sanctions are having little effect and that the economy is fine, while declaring that through the sanctions the West has declared "total war" on Russia. It's both a minor and a major thing at the same time.

[Afrospinach]

Current system primarily benefits Western powers;

The highest economic growth right now is occurring in India/china and some other developing countries.

We know one country for certain that will not be enjoying that distinction though.

[Shalcker]

The highest economic growth right now is occurring in India/china and some other developing countries.

Note both China and India quite visibly refusing to join into sanctions.

[Afrospinach]

Note both China and India quite visibly refusing to join into sanctions.

Think before you speak.

What does that have to do with historical data?

[Mihalik]

Note both China and India quite visibly refusing to join into sanctions.

Note. One (China) is another nationalistic kleptocratic oligarchy with imperial dreams (Taiwan, South China Sea), the other is economically hobbled democracy that is sliding into ethno-nationalism, so they are mostly looking out for number one...Modi. And while they might not outright join the sanctions, they aren't particularly keen on helping you either.

But don't worry, we can ruin you without their help.

- - - Updated - - -

Think before you speak.

What does that have to do with historical data?

Nothing. But it's a Gish Gallop. He'll throw random feces at the wall with a speed that's hard to keep up with.

[PC2]

The kind of change Europe pushes right now are anything but "gradual". Even if real shifts will stretch over years.

What non-incremental change is Europe pushing for? I've not heard anything about a big change.

But system had long been standing on the brink waiting for a push - and there were enough forces around willing to provide that push and try to exploit resulting instability.

lol the funny part is you think the clock is ticking on our system and not yours.

Current system primarily benefits Western powers; benefits of everyone else are secondary

So then copy and join the West and the global liberal order. Then all countries can benefit from the free flow of ideas, capital, talent, etc.

I'm also an optimist, but of a different kind. World will be different; and that sometimes painful change will ultimately be for the better.

Yeah exactly, when countries like Russia become a liberal democracy it'll be a painful change but ultimately it'll be for the better.

[Shalcker]

Think before you speak.

What does that have to do with historical data?

They seek to defend their gains; and that means carving their own place not dependent on fickle Western goodwill.

Just like Russia.

[Fuiking]

Russia should have forced the Netherlands out of NATO, invade that country, = win for them.. they have no bullets to shoot people with.

[Draco-Onis]

The highest economic growth right now is occurring in India/china and some other developing countries.

We know one country for certain that will not be enjoying that distinction though.

That's a simplified version but it doesn't necessarily mean much because the reason developing countries enjoy high GDP growth is because they are so far behind. Also India and China's numbers are not worth the paper they are written since they are used for false propaganda.

[Shalcker]

What non-incremental change is Europe pushing for? I've not heard anything about a big change.

"Get rid of Russian gas and oil dependency as fast as possible", obviously. As well as weaponizing financial markets at unprecedented scale.

lol the funny part is you think the clock is ticking on our system and not yours.

Given that i've seen "Russian system is about to fall" articles every year from my school days in 90's obviously i'm skeptical of such claims.

Of course there were a lot of "West is doomed" articles too.

Reality is that both will be "alive" - but different. And there doesn't seem to be a lot that West can "squeeze" out of current situation to keep growing.

Loss of Russian market will hurt, and substitution will be very painful.

There are no "spare" 140 millions of consumers in the world to just "keep going".

So then copy and join the West and the global liberal order. Then all countries can benefit from the free flow of ideas, capital, talent, etc.

That's exactly what Russia did though.

It isn't Russia that sought to be disconnected from it.

Yeah exactly, when countries like Russia become a liberal democracy it'll be a painful change but ultimately it'll be for the better.

Which is "not this century".

[Easo]

So now we have soldiers from South Osetia now officially arriving to fight for Russia.
We also have Georgian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine.

Time truly is a flat circle.

Saw someone raise an interesting point - Ukraine is only meant to have 18 TB2 drones so how did Russia shoot down 35 of them?

As Shalcker said - there have been a number of deliveries from Turkey to closest airports, so we can assume more drones arrived.
P.S.
I think the number was 16 at the start, conflicting info in regards to this.

Funny, because all evidence shows that Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass.

The hype train has no brakes.

The danger of wishful Western thinking

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60881915

"The Ukrainians' success depends on two things, their own phenomenal courage, and, just as critical, the steady supply of military hardware that it's getting from Western countries. If those countries, or the public in those countries, start for a moment to think David has beaten Goliath then the flow of weapons could slow or stop. That would be catastrophic for the Ukrainian resistance."

[Shalcker]

As fast as possible means it's incremental.

It was already happening "incrementally"; it was just hidden behind "decarbonization" slogans.

Current attempts aren't that; they create real costs for Europe and no gains outside of "security".

Immediately would mean it's immediate and non-incremental.

Financial part is quite immediate (even though "Russia instantly defaults" people expected here didn't actually happen).

Maybe if ya'll fucked off back to Moscow ASAP it wouldn't be necessary.

We are in the world where this wishful thinking already didn't work.

[Twdft]

"Get rid of Russian gas and oil dependency as fast as possible", obviously. As well as weaponizing financial markets at unprecedented scale.

Which would not have happened if Russia did not invade Ukraine.

You are right, we're living through the start of the great war of our time. We're still in the phase were "the west" throws money at the problem and hopes Russia comes to her senses and stops the war. No matter how this turns out, the geopolitical landscape will be very different. Russia will be surrounded by NATO in the west simply because it makes no sense anymore not to be in NATO with Russia as a neighbor. Russias word is worthless.

Russia will be a paria just like North Korea is now. And it's her own fault.