2022-2023 NFL Thread

[ProphetFlume]

Do contract bubbles ever burst? Seems like they don’t go backwards

[Logwyn]

Do contract bubbles ever burst? Seems like they don’t go backwards

What do you mean? !st year you get 20 million, 2nd year you get 15 million, 3rd year 10 million? I'm not sure any job that does that.

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With how inflated QB and WR contracts are, you pretty much have to choose which you want to pay an elite player... or not have a defense at all.

I'd choose to have a defense. But that is me.

[ProphetFlume]

What do you mean? !st year you get 20 million, 2nd year you get 15 million, 3rd year 10 million? I'm not sure any job that does that.

I mean once they reach a new plateau in the league they don’t regress as a price per position. Maybe it’ll stagnate until inflation makes it regular but one way or another the price goes up.

[draynay]

The contracts are rising in bigger chunks, I remember when Ryan and Newton and Roethlisberger were barely one-upping each other, $20.8 million, then 20.82! Then 20.85!! And they were all still making less than Rodgers.

[xskarma]

The contracts are rising in bigger chunks, I remember when Ryan and Newton and Roethlisberger were barely one-upping each other, $20.8 million, then 20.82! Then 20.85!! And they were all still making less than Rodgers.

The NFL is fucking DROWNING in money and they apparently have no clue how to properly spend it anymore and just blow it on high priced toys like some trailerpark lottery winner.

And the money coming in is going to INCREASE in the coming years due to new TV deals.

The funniest thing, in a morally bankrupt way, is they are now spending that money on people with disgusting behaviour in their past, while US cities and counties and states are handing the owners literal billions to func stadiums for them to make money in, under stress of "we might move otherwise".

I love football as a sport, but I do wonder what it would all look like if the money dried up.

[eschatological]

Football is my weakness in regards to morality. Buffalo is about to give billionaires $1 billion in taxpayer money to build a stadium that they could build themselves, just because the precedent is set. Our most recent HoF QB (Jim Kelly) was credibly accused of domestic violence for most of the late 80s, but because his victim (his wife) is still with him 30 years later and has forgiven him, most fans excuse their fandom of him.

In similar news, IDK if y'all watched the Watson/Browns press conference, but it was an utter shitshow. Good on the local Browns press for not lobbing softballs. My favorite question is, "Why did you need 40 massage therapists" and Watson just fumbled through an answer in which I believe the phrase "life is life" was uttered.

[Grube]

Not sure what games the Saints watched to think signing Daniel Sorenson was a good idea.

Hopefully the Browns media keeps it up. Watson and Berry looked very uncomfortable the whole press conference and just repeated the same (like coached by PR) responses. My favorite part was Berry acting confused and having to have the question about Waton's contract being guaranteed if he is suspended repeated, then not even answering it.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Football is my weakness in regards to morality. Buffalo is about to give billionaires $1 billion in taxpayer money to build a stadium that they could build themselves, just because the precedent is set. Our most recent HoF QB (Jim Kelly) was credibly accused of domestic violence for most of the late 80s, but because his victim (his wife) is still with him 30 years later and has forgiven him, most fans excuse their fandom of him.

In similar news, IDK if y'all watched the Watson/Browns press conference, but it was an utter shitshow. Good on the local Browns press for not lobbing softballs. My favorite question is, "Why did you need 40 massage therapists" and Watson just fumbled through an answer in which I believe the phrase "life is life" was uttered.

Glad to see Cleveland fans are not taking any shit from Haslam and Watson on this.

Will be interesting to see if that still is the case should they make the AFC Championship.

[draynay]

Not sure what games the Saints watched to think signing Daniel Sorenson was a good idea.

He's so fucking bad...

If this is the shit that happens with Dennis Allen in charge I am dreading the season.

[Logwyn]

Not sure what games the Saints watched to think signing Daniel Sorenson was a good idea.
.

I wonder if he will get cut in training camp. Would be fun to see him try to guard Pitts.

[Kyanion]

I wonder if he will get cut in training camp. Would be fun to see him try to guard Pitts.

It seems it will be more of a special teams/part timer move based on a 1 yr contract.

[draynay]

Detroit hard knocks might be the first one I watch in years.

[Vetali]

I made it like 2.5 episodes into Hard Knocks last year. It was the Cowboys, so already wasn't really interested. 3/4 of the episodes felt like anime filler episode status following around 3 fringe player's families then constantly showing their reactions to plays in the game. Was super boring.

[draynay]

Andy Dalton signing with the Saints, much better QB situation than last year, the new staff doesn't have much interest in Taysom as a QB.

[Kyanion]

Andy Dalton signing with the Saints, much better QB situation than last year, the new staff doesn't have much interest in Taysom as a QB.

Apparently based on a report that came out today they plan to put Hill primarily as a TE. I think that is not utilizing his potential as a runner nearly enough. But if he's on the field more as a pass catcher he could be quite the threat. I liked him in the Jack of all Trades where he sometimes took plays as the QB and was a dual threat.

Dalton as a backup QB is at least far more solid than what happened last year.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Well, they did it. They managed to give both teams the ball in playoff overtime.

Though the fact it's playoff only makes me feel like we're a few years away from the removal of regular season OT entirely.

[Darththeo]

Well, they did it. They managed to give both teams the ball in playoff overtime.

Though the fact it's playoff only makes me feel like we're a few years away from the removal of regular season OT entirely.

I understand why people want it, but I don't think people realize how little difference this rule actually makes in the power of the coin toss for determining OT.

The old rules after 2 possessions, there were 10 outcomes. Each team had 4 outcomes where they won, and 2 outcomes that went to sudden death.

The new rules after 2 possessions there are 27 outcomes* (assuming extra points are allowed if not please let me know), of which the team that won the coin toss wins 15 of them, the team that lost wins 7, and 5 outcomes go into sudden death.

*Technically, under the rules there are 35 outcomes after two drives, but 8 are so unlikely to happen that they shouldn't be counted imo. But if counted, the number goes to 21 for Team 1 and 9 for team 2 wins and remains 5 outcomes into sudden death.

[Northern Goblin]

I like the new rule, while it doesn't 100% resolve the matter for me, it does make deferring a potentially tactical choice.

[eschatological]

I like the new rule, while it doesn't 100% resolve the matter for me, it does make deferring a potentially tactical choice.

Deferring is the *only* tactical choice. Under the old rules, the risk of deferring was the team who received first scoring a TD and ending the game. That's now gone.

Now whoever goes second has all the info of what *needs* to be done, whether they just need a FG, a TD, or, if they're ballsy, a TD with a 2 point conversion.

That's the more interesting conversation to me. If one team scores a TD on the first possession, they go for an XP (statistically, it makes no sense for them to go for 2). If the other team then scores a TD they then have to decide whether to go for the "safe" XP, tie the game, and go to sudden death (which immediately gives the advantage to team 1 again), or go for 2 to win/lose on a 50/50, which is roughly the conversion rate on 2 pt tries.

[Darththeo]

That’s only relevant if all outcomes are equally likely. Under the previous rules the team that went first in the postseason has been far more likely to win.

And that is actually still true. Going first in OT is still far more likely to win. This change does not change that.

In 2021, there was a total of 1465 drives. 301 ended in TD. Or about 20%. Field goals was 201, or about 14%. (Source: https://stathead.com/football/drive_finder.cgi)

So, if the offense gets a TD that goes first, they are highly likely to win in all scenarios. If they get a field goal on their first drive, they are still highly likely to win.
Most drives do not end in points for the offense. If they get no points, it is still more likely the opponent's drive will also get no points and that they'll have another chance to win.