Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Flarelaine]

Imagine that, the Black Sea would suddenly become a NATO pond. Russia would essentially be cut off from the Meds (just like they would be cut off from leaving the Baltic Sea) for good, leaving them only Murmansk as a strategical port to the Atlantic. A port they pretty much can't use during winter time for surface vessels.

The whole point of Murmansk is that its port is not frozen in winter, thanks to the Gulf Stream. That's why it was built for Western supply when Russia's other ports were blockaded by the Central Powers.

[PACOX]

Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budape...rances#Content

Claiming the Bucharest Memorandum was about turning Ukraine into a neutral buffer state is just bullshit. The US and UK have not violated Ukraine's independence or sovereignty, have not threatened Ukraine with the use of force nor economically pressured Ukraine to influence its politics.

The Ukraine is not bound to never join a side, the treaty was for Ukraine to do what it wanted itself, not have outside powers dictate internal policy. If Ukraine wants to join NATO that is not a violation of the treaty so long as its Ukraine's own decision to do so.

And the US, not the UK, has threatened Ukraine into joining NATO. The only one who has done that is Russia by showing that there is no other protection from Russian aggression.

All you're telling me is that you are fully capable of retracing the political games that both sides played but still want to maintain a patriotic bias. The war and every life lost is on Putin but to act like the US and Russia weren't (and still are) using Ukraine as a proxy is wild. Even Zelenskyy says it just enough not to cut off to salvage his aid.

If Ukraine wants to join NATO that is not a violation of the treaty so long as its Ukraine's own decision to do so.

The agreement is precisely why NATO does not want Ukraine to be in NATO. And it's wholly irresponsible and unfair for certain NATO members to say "if Ukraine wants to join NATO then Ukraine can join NATO" knowing full well NATO would not have accepted Ukraine if Ukraine asked no was it going to invite Ukraine.

[Magnagarde]

Si wtf are you even arguing here? You admit he was a murderer, but at the same time nobody can say so because we all want to report him to the ICC apparently?

Do I have your position down?

I am saying that it is absolutely foolish to recite what Columbus was with the modern connotation that the words carry with themselves. Some call it "moral relativization", but it is relativized by the very fact that he lived 600 years ago and that it's absolutely pointless to point it out in comparison to what is transpiring in the current day and age. The way I see it, a European country attacking another in the 21st century is much worse than whatever Columbus did in the 15th century.

[Flarelaine]

What a farce, especially when there are actual pro-Russian posters ITT that are much more worthy of this derision.

But they took long vacations whereas Easo was constantly on hand.

[Breccia]

Looks like Russia is hitting another milestone with a default on foreign debt.

Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P

Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4, S&P said in a note on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a “selective default” because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into “dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts.”

According to S&P, a selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt.

Moscow has a grace period of 30 days from April 4 to make the payments of capital and interest, but S&P said it does not expect it will convert them into dollars given Western sanctions that undermine its “willingness and technical abilities to honor the terms and conditions” of its obligations.

A full foreign currency default would be Russia’s first in more than a century, when Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin repudiated bonds issued by the Tsarist government.

Russia cannot access roughly $315 billion of its foreign currency reserves as a result of Western sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine. Until last week, the United States allowed Russia to use some of its frozen assets to pay back certain investors in dollars. But the US Treasury has since blocked the country from accessing its reserves at American banks, part of its effort to ramp up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and further diminish his war chest.

JPMorgan estimates that Russia had about $40 billion of foreign currency debt at the end of last year, with about half of that held by foreign investors.

Quick note here: Russia might not have half their reserves, but they do have the other half. And they've seized more by restrictions on currency exchange. They're not paying their debt out of choice. Obviously the rest of their reserves are in the hands of Putin and his oligarch cronies, and they just plain don't want to spend it right now. I get that. If I was in their situation, I'd want to hold onto those dollars in case I needed to, say, flee the country suddenly.

By the way, even Russia is admitting this.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a press conference last week that any default would be “artificial” because Russia has the dollars to pay — it just can’t access them.

“There are no grounds for a real default,” Peskov said. “Not even close.”

That bolded, of course, is bullshit. We all knew the payday was coming. We've been talking about it here for weeks. Also, what do you think happens if you go to your bank and say "I didn't pay my mortgage, but you can't foreclose because I do have the money. I just didn't want to pay you." Can you re-negotiate? Sure. Don't expect there to be zero consequences.

"But Breccia! Surely when the US Treas--"

Are you seriously taking Russia's side?

"Um...I mean, devil's advocate? But the US Treasury Dept blocked access to Russia's money they left with us. Shouldn't that count for something?"

I mean, maybe the US will pay Americans who had those Russian bonds with Russia's own money. That'd be hilarious. But, no. If a thief steals money, and the police take it back, the thief doesn't get to tell Honda "I can't make the car payment because the police took all my stolen money" and expect that to work.

Also, everyone else is calling bullshit on that, too. Here's a Reuters article about this situation from two days ago.

Analysts say Russia has the means and ability to pay. The country receives billions in U.S. dollars in revenue from energy exports, and while around half its foreign exchange reserves are frozen, it has hundreds of millions that are not.

Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said this was likely a "willingness-to-pay situation."

The U.S. Treasury did not ban correspondence banking with Russia, subject to checks, and has granted a license to allow for payments relating to Moscow servicing sovereign debt until May 25.

All this means it looks like Russia could still make the payment, if it wanted to, according to analysts.

In real life, you don't get to escape payments and contracts just because you don't feel like doing it. If I'm reading this correctly, this bond payment was supposed to be in the hundreds of millions to billions range. Russia's cash reserves are in the hundreds of billions range. This is like getting your biweekly paycheck and claiming you can't pay for pizza, then suing the pizza place when they won't deliver.

S&P is basically claiming "Russia will choose not to pay within 30 days" and issuing a "select default" based on the situation. Maybe Russia will return to the long game and "find" the money. I don't think they will. I think they'll refuse and blame the West for problems they brought upon themselves.

But, see, here's the thing...the lawsuit Putin is threatening? Irrelevant. Banks and other lenders are looking at the situation and none of them are saying "More of that, please!" The exact name or details of Russia refusing to pay aren't important. Russia is proving they're a bad risk. Suing while stamping their feet and shrilling NO NO NO doesn't change that. You broke the lamp, little Vladdy, now you don't get a cookie.

I hate to keep drawing parallels between Putin and Trump...heh, no I don't...but yes, that bit where Putin is planning on suing on the grounds of "we tried to pay in worthless rubles and they refused"? For the record, show of hands, who here has tried to pay off their mortgage, car loan, or CC debt with, say, fish guts or cat excrement?

(crickets chirping)

Yeah, didn't think so. Russia signed a contract that said "We will pay back in dollars". They did not sign a contract that says "if we feel like it".

"So what happens next?"

Eh, the same thing with anyone else who doesn't pay their debts, except I don't think S&P is going into Moscow to seize the Kremlin building. It just makes it harder for Russia to borrow money, meaning China (etc.) can hike their rates, demand larger compensation, or otherwise do what would be a ripoff in any other circumstances. I mean, loan sharks are scum preying on the poor and desperate, but if you gambled away your house payment of your own free will, I won't blame them for your problem.

And I'll side with loan shark over a murderer any day.

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How's that mud working for you, Russia?



Not great. By the way, I'm 70% sure those...bricks...are ablative/reactive armor, but..man that doesn't look great.

[Flarelaine]

Pretty much, yeah. Though there are influences from French, Old Norse, and obviously Latin. Overall, its a messy language lol

We especially have to thank the Norse, it was contact with them that killed verb conjugation in English. Took a seminar or two on Old English, you really don't want to bother with all that.

[Iphie]

"So what happens next?"

Eh, the same thing with anyone else who doesn't pay their debts, except I don't think S&P is going into Moscow to seize the Kremlin building. It just makes it harder for Russia to borrow money, meaning China (etc.) can hike their rates, demand larger compensation, or otherwise do what would be a ripoff in any other circumstances. I mean, loan sharks are scum preying on the poor and desperate, but if you gambled away your house payment of your own free will, I won't blame them for your problem.

And I'll side with loan shark over a murderer any day.

I mean China won't mind a new vassal...


Also, yes, those bricks should be reactive armour. There's quite a few pictures showing they are in fact filled with construction paper(?), not sure what the word is in English.

[Slirith]

Russia needs to be demilitarized when this is all done.

[Specialka]

Russia needs to be demilitarized when this is all done.

That would mean total military defeat, which I think won't happen.

On the plus side, they got humiliated a lot in Ukraine.

[Slant]

This is not a recreation court in some primary school. People dies here (though we could say that for the primary school in a different way). Losing is humiliation for Russia since they tried to sell us the illusion that Russia STRONK. So they won't stop until they got what they want, even if they have to level most Ukrainian towns (and unfortunately, they have the means to do so). We could hope they run out of money before that but how about the damage they will do before that ?

Both will have to compromise. Ukraine will probably have to forfeit Crimea and maybe Dombass as a bonus. Russia will also have a corridor to supply water and such to Crimea. And Russia won't go after the "denazification" (though we all know it was BS from the start).

They die for their freedom. Some people really prefer having a fighting chance (literally) of freedom rather than be raped and then shot in the back of their head. This isn't about primary school playing court. You're damned right about that. This is serious business. And your position in this moot argument is intolerable to any free person on this planet. Russia won't stop? There's nothing Russia can do. Ukraine IS stopping Russia, despite what you seem to have going on in your head.

There won't be a compromise. Given how things are going, Russia will be tossed out of Ukraine within 2022 and that'll be that. No compromise. No negotiations. No relations. How the fuck do people like you come here and seriously think Russia has a natural right to demand anything? What the fuck is wrong with you? If that was the case, how about Germany sends Russia a note "Hey um, so everything West of the Ural is now ours, thanks mkay?" and somehow in your twisted logic Russia should comply? Lmao... you're insane.

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Back on topic, let's be hopeful for a minute and assume Ukraine is fully able to push Russia out of it's territory. What happens then?

Nothing, the border will be guarded and given the direction Ukraine is going, it'll be guarded by NATO forces by the time Russia recovers from this shitshow. Same as the Finnish border. And that'll put an end to all of that bullshit.

And then we move on to enjoy the revolution Belarus will be having...

[Specialka]

They die for their freedom. Some people really prefer having a fighting chance (literally) of freedom rather than be raped and then shot in the back of their head. This isn't about primary school playing court. You're damned right about that. This is serious business. And your position in this moot argument is intolerable to any free person on this planet. Russia won't stop? There's nothing Russia can do. Ukraine IS stopping Russia, despite what you seem to have going on in your head.

There won't be a compromise. Given how things are going, Russia will be tossed out of Ukraine within 2022 and that'll be that. No compromise. No negotiations. No relations. How the fuck do people like you come here and seriously think Russia has a natural right to demand anything? What the fuck is wrong with you? If that was the case, how about Germany sends Russia a note "Hey um, so everything West of the Ural is now ours, thanks mkay?" and somehow in your twisted logic Russia should comply? Lmao... you're insane.

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Nothing, the border will be guarded and given the direction Ukraine is going, it'll be guarded by NATO forces by the time Russia recovers from this shitshow. Same as the Finnish border. And that'll put an end to all of that bullshit.

And then we move on to enjoy the revolution Belarus will be having...

Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.

[Rozz]

But they took long vacations whereas Easo was constantly on hand.

He also chose similar battles to wage, even if for different means. And the oversimplified version of the argument people were reacting to is still essentially what he was saying, but not for pro-Russian reasons.

Specialka is in the same camp as Easo. Ukraine has to negotiate---which is ultimately surrendering to Russian demands, since by their arguments they don't have something to negotiate with on their end at the table. They see appeasement as the fastest way for Ukranians to end the conflict and save themselves. They didn't say this because they support the Russians.

But if your argument is running parallel to what many decided as 'the enemy's goals' and you spend most of your efforts striking down optimism/claiming intellectual authority over any updates that comes out in an admonishing manner, don't be surprised people start making accusations. Especially when your efforts are focused on replying to those being supportive to Ukraine.

[Slant]

They won't be able to. Let's be realistic.

They pushed all forces back from Kyiv and now they're beginning a fun turkey shoot moving towards Donbas... how long are you going to pretend reality doesn't exist?

"They won't be able to" is not a valid statement WHEN THEY'RE ACTUALLY DOING IT RIGHT THE FUCK NOW. Jeez, how obnoxious can you be?

[P for Pancetta]

Not great. By the way, I'm 70% sure those...bricks...are ablative/reactive armor, but..man that doesn't look great.

Saw a vid of a destroyed tank were an ukrainian soldier was showing that the boxes were empty on that tank, all of them. So some might only be for show.

[Specialka]

They pushed all forces back from Kyiv and now they're beginning a fun Turkey shoot moving towards Donbas... how long are you going to pretend reality doesn't exist?

"They won't be able to" is not a valid statement WHEN THEY'RE ACTUALLY DOING IT RIGHT THE FUCK NOW. Jeez, how obnoxious can you be?

Russia Command or Putin decided that taking Kyiv was becoming too costly and decided to withdraw to focus on east and south (which are their true targets from the beginning, the rest would have beeen bonus).

[Slant]

The whole point of Murmansk is that its port is not frozen in winter, thanks to the Gulf Stream. That's why it was built for Western supply when Russia's other ports were blockaded by the Central Powers.

Huh, you're right. Still not the most ideal port for your entire Atlantic fleet if you have to sail around.. uh, not three, but actually 5 potentially hostile countries before you're in the Atlantic proper.

[Breccia]

There's quite a few pictures showing they are in fact filled with construction paper(?), not sure what the word is in English.

No, that's the correct name. I think it's spacers in front of the explosive. Just straight-up paper would be as useful against an RPG-7 (or whatever) as throwing pebbles at a T-rex.

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Saw a vid of a destroyed tank were an ukrainian soldier was showing that the boxes were empty on that tank, all of them. So some might only be for show.

So, pebbles it is, then. Got it. Yeah, reactive armor is, well...reactive. It involves Newton swinging a baseball bat with "force" written on it the other way. Paper doesn't do that.

[Slant]

Russia needs to be demilitarized when this is all done.

Uh, hard no on that. Sovereign nations are sovereign. And Russia needs to be able to defend itself just like Ukraine has a right to self-defense.

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Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.

Ok, tell me why... cos if Ukraine don't stop, Russia will fail even harder and drown themselves in the river? Like give me one good reason why Ukraine should stop now. Just one. And I'll give you a freebie: military opposition ain't it, cos there's none. NONE. Fucking Taliban goatherders put up more of a fight than Russians.

[Canpinter]

Nothing, the border will be guarded and given the direction Ukraine is going, it'll be guarded by NATO forces by the time Russia recovers from this shitshow. Same as the Finnish border. And that'll put an end to all of that bullshit.

And then we move on to enjoy the revolution Belarus will be having...

There will still need to be some form of negotiated cease fire unless your plan is for them just just be shelling and shooting at each other from opposite sides of the boarder for the next few years.

[Slant]

Russia Command or Putin decided that taking Kyiv was becoming too costly and decided to withdraw to focus on east and south (which are their true targets from the beginning, the rest would have beeen bonus).

Hahahaha, yes, they left ammo, military equipment and fucking food trucks in an orderly retreat to regroup... absolutely, that's how military strategy works. Is this the same logic as "hey, let's send our worst troops into first contact, you know.. to soften the enemy up!"

Amazing lmao