Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Zaydin]

Hmmm. Someone should really tell them, then, that the easiest way to prevent those modern weapons from being used on their military is to GET THE FUCK OUT OF UKRAINE.

It's sad, but at this point we know that a quick retreat after the first few days of the invasion would have been far less embarrassing (and certainly less costly) for Putin and the Russian military than the prolonged shitshow that's ensued since.

Putler is stuck in a sunk cost fallacy at this point; too many Russian soldiers have died now and they have lost too much material and lost decades of economic growth over this.

State actors within Russia are demanding the genocide of Ukraine, both the people and its culture. Retreating now would be admitting defeat and that would be certain death for Putler.

[ItsRainingMetal]

As a veteran it seems I have previously grossly overestimated the Russians military abilities. I am shocked at how incompetent they really are. Despite having the advantage Russia still doesn't have air superiority. Tanks driving around on their own with zero air cover or infantry support. No logistics to support the invasion. Manpower losses measured in 10's of 1000's. Tanks, IFV's, helicopters etc getting obliterated everywhere. What a shitshow for the Russians and a complete embarrassment. If it wasn't for nukes I think NATO could steamroll Russia in no time, even without the US.

[Verdugo]

Putin sending everyone empty threats reminds me of Hannibal sending ultimatum to Rome during second punic war and the Senate sent back a demand for the rent of the public land occupied by his war camp.

[P for Pancetta]

what are "unpredictable consequences" if not at the least WMDs? Russia cannot threaten the US in any capacity with anything else. Them blowing up the supply convoys like they've threatened isn't much of a threat/will do jack shit.

What are "unpredictable consequences" here? It has to be "unpredictable" like in the sense of it being some wild act no sane human could expect to happen.

I don't think Russia currently has the means to MAD the US. their only methods of reaching the US is by using their nuclear subs, and it's not likely they're all near the US and even then a certain part of them are being followed and won't be able to launch. others might not for moral reasons. The hypersonic missiles don't have enough range to be fired from the Russian mainland and hit anything but Alaska. The subsonic missiles or planes can easily be countered long before they reach US airspace.

Which means that pushing the button isn't a good option for them, since the US can take out Russia reliably.

What Russia fears most and what is most likely true is that the US currently has hypersonic missiles that can enter orbit, once there it can change direction at any time and hit any target it wants on earth. The problem for the defenders being that even if they're actively tracking the object(which is extremely difficult) it's extremely hard to calculate were it's actually going to hit, because at those altitudes an adjustment of a few mm can result in miles of difference. They also go much faster then other hypersonic missiles because of them coming from space, even though re-entry slows them down a lot on impact with earth they'll still be traveling twice as fast as the fastest Russian missile.

also don't forget that in order to communicate properly a submarine must surface (in order to get the order), it can communicate in other ways underwater but those can be detected. There is another way Russia can communicate with their subs just like the US and a few other countries using extremely low frequencies, but those require big and complicated special radio stations which Russia doesn't have many of and if taken out would make communications to their submarines very difficult. And it can be jammed.

[PhaelixWW]

what are "unpredictable consequences" if not at the least WMDs?

Well, YUPPIE, you seem to know Putin's mind with perfect clarity, tell me this: Why wouldn't Russia just say "nukes" if that's what they meant, hmm? Why dissemble?

Wouldn't that just make them weak, having to hide behind a vague term? Wouldn't being that weak just drive Putin absolutely crazy, then maybe he'd snap and slaughter his entire corp of diplomats?

Or, you know, some other such nonsense.

What are "unpredictable consequences" here? It has to be "unpredictable" like in the sense of it being some wild act no sane human could expect to happen.

No... no it doesn't. That's just your tendency to hyperbolize everything.

- - - Updated - - -

As a veteran it seems I have previously grossly overestimated the Russians military abilities.

You and 100% of the world, it would seem. That includes Russia, too.

[Bakis]

YUPPIE using the word sane in a post. I find it both ironic and highly amusing in a way.

[Arrashi]

what are "unpredictable consequences" if not at the least WMDs?

Simple - instead of just pissing himself, Putin will also shit himself.

And Shoigu will get another heart attack.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't think Russia currently has the means to MAD the US.

They still (supposedly) have enough nukes to cause nuclear winter and doom us all, even if they couldn't reach the US for direct strikes.

But, uh... yes, they could send ICBM's to the US from Russia.

[D Luniz]

As a veteran it seems I have previously grossly overestimated the Russians military abilities. I am shocked at how incompetent they really are. Despite having the advantage Russia still doesn't have air superiority. Tanks driving around on their own with zero air cover or infantry support. No logistics to support the invasion. Manpower losses measured in 10's of 1000's. Tanks, IFV's, helicopters etc getting obliterated everywhere. What a shitshow for the Russians and a complete embarrassment. If it wasn't for nukes I think NATO could steamroll Russia in no time, even without the US.

its ok, everyone did, even the people with multibillion-dollar spy agencies did

[Jastall]

As a veteran it seems I have previously grossly overestimated the Russians military abilities. I am shocked at how incompetent they really are. Despite having the advantage Russia still doesn't have air superiority. Tanks driving around on their own with zero air cover or infantry support. No logistics to support the invasion. Manpower losses measured in 10's of 1000's. Tanks, IFV's, helicopters etc getting obliterated everywhere. What a shitshow for the Russians and a complete embarrassment. If it wasn't for nukes I think NATO could steamroll Russia in no time, even without the US.

The whole "Russia is a gas station with nukes" thing was close to reality than anyone expected in the end.

[Xyonai]

Hmmm. Someone should really tell them, then, that the easiest way to prevent those modern weapons from being used on their military is to GET THE FUCK OUT OF UKRAINE.

It's sad, but at this point we know that a quick retreat after the first few days of the invasion would have been far less embarrassing (and certainly less costly) for Putin and the Russian military than the prolonged shitshow that's ensued since.

They're hoping they can secure Eastern Territories before they literally cannot afford to wage this war anymore, then use that position to bargain more favorable terms of """Surrender""". They're too proud and/or stupid to pull out before they can achieve -something- tangible with this costly, economy fucking war they waged on flimsy pretenses, because if they walk away with nothing then it becomes a lot harder to sell this to the people at home even with their propaganda stranglehold.

At this point I only see the War ending if they can secure those territories, or if waging this war becomes logistically impossible for them. Russia will just keep throwing goons and armor into a rapefest meat grinder until there's nothing left. And while I think Nukes are off the table, nothing's stopping a Spiteful Putin from using any number of other horrid weapons if he's feeling desperate. MOABs and Chemical Weapons are still on the table (if they can be delivered).

- - - Updated - - -

As a veteran it seems I have previously grossly overestimated the Russians military abilities. I am shocked at how incompetent they really are. Despite having the advantage Russia still doesn't have air superiority. Tanks driving around on their own with zero air cover or infantry support. No logistics to support the invasion. Manpower losses measured in 10's of 1000's. Tanks, IFV's, helicopters etc getting obliterated everywhere. What a shitshow for the Russians and a complete embarrassment. If it wasn't for nukes I think NATO could steamroll Russia in no time, even without the US.

Aside from the obvious part that if they didn't have nukes they wouldn't have bothered invading Ukraine in the first place; Without Nukes NATO countries would be hanging flags in Red Square by the end of the first two weeks if it came down to a full scale ground war, by the looks of it.

And I'm fondly reminded of all the Pundits whining about our 'emasculated military' while praising Russia's 'Strong Man Army' and now seeing what their idea of a Strong Man Army looks like in action lmao.

[Corvus]

Commander of the Black Sea Fleet reportedly has been arrested by men in plain clothes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...m_source=share

I guess someone has to be scapegoated for the totally not sunk by the Ukrainians loss of the Moskva.

- - - Updated - - -

Latest cope from Russian state media to explain why it is taking so long - they are actually fighting world war 3 against NATO.

https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1...12770594906117

[Adam Jensen]

Commander of the Black Sea Fleet reportedly has been arrested by men in plain clothes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...m_source=share

I guess someone has to be scapegoated for the totally not sunk by the Ukrainians loss of the Moskva.

- - - Updated - - -

Latest cope from Russian state media to explain why it is taking so long - they are actually fighting world war 3 against NATO.

https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1...12770594906117

First response to the tweet spells it out well.

They've lost 500 tanks, another 2,000 other vehicles, 82 aircraft, 18,000+ soldiers and a battlecruiser.

NATO hasn't even arrived yet.

It is fair to say that this war against NATO is not going well for Russia.

If this is WWIII and NATO did get involved, if it weren't for nukes, the war would be over already.

[YUPPIE]

I notice so many people (understandably) say

"if it wasn't for nukes"

And considering how Russia has always had this reputation of an evil genocidal raping empire way before this invasion of Ukraine, it makes you wonder how 1) America didn't turn on, demilitarize, and annex Russia after Hitler's defeat and 2) how they let them obtain and keep nuclear weapons.

It's all led up to this.

[Kaleredar]

And I'm fondly reminded of all the Pundits whining about our 'emasculated military' while praising Russia's 'Strong Man Army' and now seeing what their idea of a Strong Man Army looks like in action lmao.

Seems "walk softly, but carry a big stick" is a sentiment thoroughly lost on them. They wanted things like heavy artillery-centered military parades like some tinpot dictatorship. Putin would pose shirtless riding a horse, Trump would brag about his sexual exploits (and I do mean "exploits") with women. That's what they think makes a "strong leader." Not a leader who leads intelligently or solidly. Just a leader that "sends a message" of toughness.

Or, to paraphrase geto boys: "real gangsters don't flex nuts, 'cuz real gangsters know they got 'em." Russia, clearly, was doing a lot of the first, and had none of the second.

[Xyonai]

Seems "walk softly, but carry a big stick" is a sentiment thoroughly lost on them. They wanted things like heavy artillery-centered military parades like some tinpot dictatorship. Putin would pose shirtless riding a horse, Trump would brag about his sexual exploits (and I do mean "exploits") with women. That's what they think makes a "strong leader." Not a leader who leads intelligently or solidly. Just a leader that "sends a message" of toughness.

Or, to paraphrase geto boys: "real gangsters don't flex nuts, 'cuz real gangsters know they got 'em." Russia, clearly, was doing a lot of the first, and had none of the second.

Conservatives/Fascists and Failing to Comprehend Nuance, name a more iconic duo.

[Masark]

Conservatives/Fascists and Failing to Comprehend Nuance, name a more iconic duo.

Conservatives/Fascists and Failing To Comprehend Pretty Much Anything At All Really?

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

what are "unpredictable consequences" if not at the least WMDs?

What are "unpredictable consequences" here? It has to be "unpredictable" like in the sense of it being some wild act no sane human could expect to happen.

So...what's that say about you?

[XDurionX]

So...what's that say about you?

Hit and sunk.

[Iphie]

Commander of the Black Sea Fleet reportedly has been arrested by men in plain clothes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...m_source=share

I guess someone has to be scapegoated for the totally not sunk by the Ukrainians loss of the Moskva.

The longer this goes on the more of a threat Putin becomes to those around him, at some point that has to reach a limit.