Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Lynarii]

Here's a video mostly for people who disagreed with my view on how the war will end. An American dude talks to the camera for 7 minutes, from a different PoV in different words he elaborates on the same thought I've been voicing here for good 1.5 months: the fighting is going on, but Russia has already lost the war, the question is what exactly will Russia lose in consequence (in addition to respect).

At this point both sides have lost the war. Russia won't come out more powerful even if it takes everything it wants to take at this point, and Ukraine is going to be beaten, bloody, and reeling for a decade even if Russia left today. There is no world in which this war has a winner, it's just a matter of deciding what all is lost, and Russia needing /something/ tangible to justify it all. It's horrifying in every possible way the word can be envisioned.

[Warning]

At this point both sides have lost the war. Russia won't come out more powerful even if it takes everything it wants to take at this point, and Ukraine is going to be beaten, bloody, and reeling for a decade even if Russia left today. There is no world in which this war has a winner, it's just a matter of deciding what all is lost, and Russia needing /something/ tangible to justify it all. It's horrifying in every possible way the word can be envisioned.

I don't agree with your assessment as regards to Ukraine because I think the timeframe it considers is too short. The Ukrainian government long before this war knew that it had a difficult choice ahead of it that would define its future. Ukraine would either be absorbed by Russia piece by piece starting with Crimea, or it would join the EU/NATO and end very likely up in a larger military confrontation with Russia. They knowingly made the choice to join the west over Russia. The results of that choice so far have probably aligned with or exceeded their expectations. Before this conflict broke out they had to be unsure they could win it, and had to have doubts about the support they would receive from the west. Now, about two months into it they're looking a Russian loss, and are still receiving significant support from western allies.

You're right that they have a decade of rebuilding ahead of them. But a decade is not much when the existence of your country was at stake. Ukraine's continued existence was in doubt before this conflict, now it's starting to look more undeniable every day. The rebuilding effort will have western financial support, and Ukraine has won tremendous favor and standing in the international community by its legendary resistance. Who now will question the grit and strength of the Ukrainian people? That means that they are very likely going to come out of this war far stronger than they had been.

[Zaydin]

Here's a video mostly for people who disagreed with my view on how the war will end. An American dude talks to the camera for 7 minutes, from a different PoV in different words he elaborates on the same thought I've been voicing here for good 1.5 months: the fighting is going on, but Russia has already lost the war, the question is what exactly will Russia lose in consequence (in addition to respect).

He's saying what a number of us have been saying for a while now: That Russia lost the war when they failed to conquer Ukraine in a week.

[Forogil]

To be fair, calling them Germans might be true in the strictest sense of the word, but it does help to keep in mind that these crises were managed by different chancellors/parties in power. It might not be as harsh a shift as, say, the Trump years were for the US, but it really is less about the reliability of a country and more about the parties/people involved. Merkel, being mostly a reactionary, would probably have taken more measures by now. Scholz is just so passive in some ways that is quite aggravating, at least to me. Though on the other hand, he probably has a lot less leeway to act given the pains of the three-way currently going on.

On the third hand acting is not necessarily good.

Merkel acted after Fukushima and that increased Germany's dependency on fossil gas and Russia. And she defended those actions just a few months ago; https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/18/...lear-exclusive

[Poopymonster]

"These were building that were planned for destruction, and it was determined that rather than demolish them the safest way to do so was to burn them to the ground. There is nothing unexpected or to see here, this is just a normal week in Russia."

In light of rising fuel costs, we chose to keep families warm.

[Afrospinach]

That's just a special water operation.

Who dares wins

>.>

There are two things that are really hard to wrap your head around in this conflict.

The broadness of the Ukrainian mindset that has them doing things like sinking the Moskva.

The dogma and incompetence of the Russian forces.

I was reading an article about the 80km long convoy that was heading to Kyiv. Apparently it was stopped by 30 people on quad bikes who initially stuck 4 vehicles at the front of the Russian column during the night. They went on to harass it for some time afterward.

At this point both sides have lost the war.

I disagree.

Ukraine is fighting for it's existence. Just because victory is not pretty does not mean it is not a victory. This is what a lot of people here have said before. Ukraine wins by default, it is Russia that needs to achieve goals.

[Vorkreist]

On the third hand acting is not necessarily good.

Merkel acted after Fukushima and that increased Germany's dependency on fossil gas and Russia. And she defended those actions just a few months ago; https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/18/...lear-exclusive

She still expects tsunamis to hit germany any day now.

[Corvus]

Yesterday Ukraine reported hitting a command post near Kherson and claimed 50 officers were killed. Today they are saying that 2 generals died in the strike and a 3rd was wounded.

[D3thray]

Who dares wins

>.>

There are two things that are really hard to wrap your head around in this conflict.

The broadness of the Ukrainian mindset that has them doing things like sinking the Moskva.

The dogma and incompetence of the Russian forces.

I was reading an article about the 80km long convoy that was heading to Kyiv. Apparently it was stopped by 30 people on quad bikes who initially stuck 4 vehicles at the front of the Russian column during the night. They went on to harass it for some time afterward.



I disagree.

Ukraine is fighting for it's existence. Just because victory is not pretty does not mean it is not a victory. This is what a lot of people here have said before. Ukraine wins by default, it is Russia that needs to achieve goals.

I still question the ability of Ukraine to push Russia out of the south and east without MAJOR support in materiel and manpower from NATO.

[Voidwielder]

Last 12 hours has seen sharp, sharp increase of talk about Ukrainian ''provocations'' involving WMDs.

Watch for it.

[Saradain]

Last 12 hours has seen sharp, sharp increase of talk about Ukrainian ''provocations'' involving WMDs.

Watch for it.

I have to remind you, when russian nazi army uses WMDs on ukrainians, that is a russian provocation, not ukrainian one.

Although you also may mean that Russia is indeed planning to use such weapons and preparing their national propaganda with such claims so they can pretend to be the victims of fake news.

[Milchshake]

Last 12 hours has seen sharp, sharp increase of talk about Ukrainian ''provocations'' involving WMDs.

Watch for it.

Lame attempt at trying to launder Russian Propaganda on your part, as "people are saying"...
We've seen this before, the same tactic they repeated every couple of weeks with chemical weapon attacks in Syria since 2017.


Russian MoD claims that US is preparing a provocation to accuse Russia of using chemical, biological or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This means that Russia is about to commit another war crime and accuse US for it. High risk for Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia NPP.

Orcs are terrifyingly predictable and have no imagination and no humanness to them whatsoever. Reads like a middle school history book in the worst kind of way.

[Mamut]

Some german "intellectuals" signed open letter to Schollz urging him to stop supplying arms to Ukraine to encourage it to capitulate, let the Russians enter Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa without a fight and accept all Russian conditions. All for the sake of peace, obviously.

I know they are minority with probably some russian connections but still it's disgusting. I would fire them immediately.

[Kiri]

On the third hand acting is not necessarily good.

Merkel acted after Fukushima and that increased Germany's dependency on fossil gas and Russia. And she defended those actions just a few months ago; https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/18/...lear-exclusive

Oh, Merkel was certainly making quite a few mistakes being that reactionary. I just wanted to mention some differences and all since after such a long time with Merkel, it is easy to forget that German politicians aren't exactly monolithic either, haha.

[Iphie]

Some german "intellectuals" signed open letter to Schollz urging him to stop supplying arms to Ukraine to encourage it to capitulate, let the Russians enter Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa without a fight and accept all Russian conditions. All for the sake of peace, obviously.

I know they are minority with probably some russian connections but still it's disgusting. I would fire them immediately.

Encouraging peace talks, that I could get. But unconditional capitulation? No, that's just too much.

[Gorsameth]

Encouraging peace talks, that I could get. But unconditional capitulation? No, that's just too much.

Even peace talks are not that popular. Macron caught a lot of flak for constantly trying to find a peaceful solution while Russia is actively committing atrocities.

[Iphie]

Even peace talks are not that popular. Macron caught a lot of flak for constantly trying to find a peaceful solution while Russia is actively committing atrocities.

I get that, my point was more about how disgusting that is. Peace talks will have to happen sooner or later, be it after military defeat or before. The only thing I want from those is that if Russia gets defeated a Versailles type peace treaty will be avoided. (let's TRY to learn something from history, shall we?)

[Lynarii]

I don't agree with your assessment as regards to Ukraine because I think the timeframe it considers is too short. The Ukrainian government long before this war knew that it had a difficult choice ahead of it that would define its future. Ukraine would either be absorbed by Russia piece by piece starting with Crimea, or it would join the EU/NATO and end very likely up in a larger military confrontation with Russia. They knowingly made the choice to join the west over Russia. The results of that choice so far have probably aligned with or exceeded their expectations. Before this conflict broke out they had to be unsure they could win it, and had to have doubts about the support they would receive from the west. Now, about two months into it they're looking a Russian loss, and are still receiving significant support from western allies.

You're right that they have a decade of rebuilding ahead of them. But a decade is not much when the existence of your country was at stake. Ukraine's continued existence was in doubt before this conflict, now it's starting to look more undeniable every day. The rebuilding effort will have western financial support, and Ukraine has won tremendous favor and standing in the international community by its legendary resistance. Who now will question the grit and strength of the Ukrainian people? That means that they are very likely going to come out of this war far stronger than they had been.

No amount of Western support is going to bring back the people that the Russians have murdered, and it will be generations before the scars of this fade. I'm not trying to knock Ukraine here at all, they didn't choose this war to begin with, and what they have achieved so far has exceeded all expectations. But I don't think any amount of spin will make this war a GOOD thing for Ukraine, just a thing that could have been much much worse. And I think that's important for the rest of us to keep in mind. Assuming that Russia is pushed out, Ukraine is saved, after all the parties and cheering is done there will be decades worth of rebuilding a shattered land to do. If we're serious about helping the country we need to maintain support over the long haul, and not just forget about them a week after the last bomb drops like the public kinda has a habit of doing. "We won" has a sense of being finished, but that CAN'T be the end point.

[Gabriel]

I get that, my point was more about how disgusting that is. Peace talks will have to happen sooner or later, be it after military defeat or before. The only thing I want from those is that if Russia gets defeated a Versailles type peace treaty will be avoided. (let's TRY to learn something from history, shall we?)

Why? Fuck russia. The sanctions should stay in place until Putin is dead, the entire body of russian military officers is tried in international court, and russian nukes are dismantled.

[Iphie]

Why? Fuck russia. The sanctions should stay in place until Putin is dead, the entire body of russian military officers is tried in international court, and russian nukes are dismantled.

I never said anything about the sanctions being lifted, or them keeping their nukes but them giving up nukes or having their officers tried is, at best, a dream. What I am saying is: Versailles resulted in WWII, I have 0 appetite for a re-run of that, nor do I want to kick the can 20 odd years down the street. If you have a good idea on how to handle this then by all means be my guest and implement it. No need to be too delicate but if you're too harsh we'll end up in much rougher water.

As for Putin, nature will come calling, sooner rather than later I suspect.